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Watch Miles from Tomorrowland Online | Season 1 Full Episodes Video Streaming & Torrent Search

Miles from Tomorrowland Synopsis Miles from Tomorrowland is an animated television series produced by the Disney Channel that premiered in February of 2015. Miles from Tomorrowland is an American animated TV series about the adventures of an inquisitive, if somewhat reckless boy named Miles who travels the universe with his family. Miles from Tomorrowland is […]




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How to Become Great by Managing Procrastination

One day, a teacher entered her classroom and placed a glass jar on the table. She put two large rocks into the jar until no more could fit. She asked the class if the jar was full and they all said, “Yes.” She responded, “Really?” She pulled out a pile of small pebbles, added them […]

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How to Find Online Casino Bonuses Suited for You

Online casinos are famous for their bonuses and promotions. These offers are one of the key advantages that online casinos hold over their land-based equivalents. But there are a lot of different types of online casino bonuses. Anyone who is quite new to gambling online might be confused about how they work in practice. As […]

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10 Mindblowing Benefits of Avocado Oil

Avocado oil is an amazing substance with many incredible uses. It contains an impressive list of healthy vitamins and minerals as well as “good” fatty acids and antioxidants. Avocado oil finds its appliance both in the kitchen and in personal hygiene. Read on to discover all the mindblowing ways you can use it in your […]

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How Backup And Storage Led To Cybercrime

Technology has come a long way, and cyber protection is the most crucial factor in advancing the future of digital defense. Interestingly enough, cybersecurity was not always an issue in backup and storage; but as technology advances, so do the methods of hackers. Saying this, let’s take a walk down memory lane. The 1900s: Where […]

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How To Be Efficient As a Busy Mom And Still Chase Your Dreams

Haven’t we all been there? Going from being frazzled and all over the place to being efficient and feeling like a super-woman, then back down again? I’ve been through my fair share of daily vicissitudes that have left me in shambles plenty of times. Being a mom of two kids or having a professional career […]

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Pros and Cons of Traveling by Car You Should Know

Many people all over the world are fond of traveling. Which kind of vehicle for trips is the most comfortable? Probably, the only answer here is that everything is individual. However, when you travel by car, you are your own boss on the road. In this article, we gathered the common pros and cons of […]

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Article: Will Blockchain Blow Up Digital Advertising Paradigms?

Ian McKee, founder and CEO of Singapore-based Vuulr, explains the value of blockchain technology—and the threat it poses to the structure of traditional digital advertising.




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Article: How Artificial Intelligence Can Transform the Digital Out-of-Home Marketplace

Omer Golan, founder and CEO of Outernets, discusses how artificial intelligence can improve the digital out-of-home industry.




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Newsroom: Time Spent with Media in China Grows amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Our Estimate for Time Spent with TV in 2020 Is Revised Upward by 5 Minutes April 24, 2020 (New York, NY) – Over the course of just a few months, […]




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Newsroom: eMarketer: Americans’ TV Time Will Grow for First Time Since 2012

Pandemic gives TV viewership boost, but will be short-lived   April 28, 2020 (New York, NY) – As stay-at-home orders remain in effect due to COVID-19, TV viewership and time […]




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Newsroom: eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence are now Insider Intelligence

May 6, 2020 (New York, NY) – “Insider Intelligence” is being announced today as the brand name of the newly-formed parent company of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence (BII), both […]




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Which of These Comforting TV Shows is Right for You?

Right now we all need comfort — more than we’ve ever needed it. When times are stressful, sometimes relaxing with comforting TV shows is a way to relax and escape for awhile. As a TV connoisseur, I’m excited to share my favorite uplifting and comforting TV shows with you: comedies where you fall in love …

Which of These Comforting TV Shows is Right for You? Read More »

The post Which of These Comforting TV Shows is Right for You? appeared first on Adventurous Kate.




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Guatemalan Black Howler Monkey

The endangered Guatemalan Black Howler (Alouatta pigra) (sometimes called the Yucatan Howler or Yucatan Black Howler) is one of many species of howler monkey, which is what is known as a ‘New World’ monkey. Its range is throughout the Yucatan Peninsula, and includes the areas of Mexico, Belize, and of course Guatemala. The Guatemalan Black Howler prefers to live in very lush areas, mostly sticking to all types of rain forests such as the semi-deciduous, lowland and evergreen. Of its cousins and relatives, the Guatemalan Black Howler is the largest, and is also one of the largest ‘New World’ monkeys (which include marmosets, owl monkeys, sakis, spider, and woolly monkeys). It weighs in at 25 lbs on average in males (11-12 kg) and 14 lbs for the females (6-7 kg). Their fur is usually black and their tails are very long, and prehensile (meaning it can grab and be used to hang from branches with). They also have specialized teeth for their diet of mostly leaves, along with the males possessing a larger hyoid bone located near the vocal chords, which enables their loud calls.

The Guatemalan Black is a diurnal howler, which means it is active during the day and it sleeps at night, as well as being arboreal, meaning it dwells in the trees most of its life. They are a social species that lives in groups up to ten members strong, which helps in alerting, foraging, and general upkeep through grooming. Some groups can be as large as sixteen, while larger groups are plausible, however at these sizes it is unlikely to function as well as a smaller group. Their diets consist of mostly leaves, and fruits, however they will snack on a flower here and there and their favorite tree of all is the breadnut, which provides most food during some seasons.

Not a particularly active species, the Guatemalan Black Howler would rather lounge about during the day; eating takes up a quarter of the day while moving locations for eating consists of only about a tenth of their daily activity. The rest of the day is devoted to socializing and grooming, with some other random antics. Females are old enough to have offspring by four years of age, while males may take up to eight years to reach maturity, and their total life-spans are an average of twenty years.

The Guatemalan Black Howler’s binomial name (its species and genus) is Alouatta pigra, the Alouatta’s as a genus make up most of the Howler Monkeys, which are the largest of the New World Monkeys with but a few possible exceptions. Alouatta is home to all of the howler monkeys (ten species and ten subspecies), and belongs to the subfamily Alouattinae. Alouattinae belongs to the family Atelidae which is one of the four families of New World Monkeys; this includes the howler monkeys, along with spider monkeys, woolly monkeys, wooly spider monkeys, and Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkeys. Atelidae belongs to the Parvorder Platyrrhini, which contains all New World Monkeys, and includes Marmosets and Muriquis. Platyrrhini belongs to the infraorder Simiiformes, or ‘higher primates’, and this includes all New World and Old World monkeys from South America and Africa, and includes gibbons, great apes, and the family Hominidae of which we are members. Simiiformes belongs to the Suborder Haplorrhini, otherwise called dry-nosed primates; this includes all of the higher primates as well as Tarsiers. Haplorrhini belongs to the Order Primates, which is all related apes, monkeys, lorids, galagos, lemurs and human ancestors. Primates are in the class of Mammalia of the phylum Chordata in the Kingdom of Animalia.

Fact


The Guatemalan Black Howler is sympatric with another species, the Mantled Howler. Sympatric means that they share the same niche and territory, and encounter each other in the wild, they are also closely related.

Warning


The Guatemalan Black Howler is an Endangered Species, and is close to being classified as Critically Endangered if nothing is done to curb the loss of the species. In the next 30 years the IUCN expects to see a population loss of over 60%, making this species on the more endangered alive today. Major threats are habitat loss, poaching, and capture for use as ‘pets’.





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A live tour of how Basecamp uses Basecamp to run Basecamp

David and I spent nearly 2-hours giving a livestream tour of our very own Basecamp account. We wanted to show you how Basecamp uses Basecamp to run projects, communicate internally, share announcements, know what everyone’s working on, build software, keep up socially, and a whole bunch more. Our entire company runs on Basecamp, and this… keep reading




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“Distraction,” Simplicity, and Running Toward Shitstorms

It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.

—Albert Einstein, “On the Method of Theoretical Physics” (1934)

Context: Last week, I pinched off one of my typically woolly emails in response to an acquaintance whom I admire. He’s a swell guy who makes things I love, and he'd written, in part, to express concern that my recent Swift impersonation had been directed explicitly at something he'd made. Which, of course, it hadn’t—but which, as I'll try to discuss here, strikes me as irrelevant.

To paraphrase Bogie, I played it for him, so now I suppose I might as well play it for you.


(n.b.: Excerpted, redacted, munged, and heavily expanded from my original email)

There are at least a couple things that mean a lot to me that I'm still just not very good at.

  • Make nuanced points in whatever way they need to be made; even if that ends up seeming “un-nuanced”
  • Never explain yourself.

I want to break both these self-imposed rules privately with you here. [Editor’s Note: Um.] Because, I hope to nuance the shit out of some fairly un-nuanced points. And, to do that, I'll also (reluctantly) need to explain myself. But, here goes.

First [regarding my goofing on “distraction-free writing environments”] I think there are some GIANT distinctions at play here that a lot of folks may not find nearly as obvious as I do:

  1. Tool Mastery vs. Productivity Pr0n – Finding and learning the right tools for your work vs solely dicking around with the options for those tools is just so important, but also so different. And, admittedly, it’s almost impossible to contrast those differences in terms of hard & fast rules that could be true for all people in all situations. But, that doesn’t make the difference any less qualitatively special or real.

    Similarly…
  2. Self-Help Vs. “Self”–“Help” – Solving the problem that caused the problem that caused the problem that caused the symptom we eventually noticed. Huge. Arguably, peerless.

    • Viz.: How many of us ignore the actual cause of our problem in favor of just reading dozens of blog posts about how to “turbocharge” its most superficial symptoms? Sick.
  3. Focus & Play – Yes, focusing on important work is, as Ford used to say, Job 1. But, that focus benefits when we maintain the durable and unapologetic sense of play that affords true creativity and fosters an emergence of context and connection that’s usually killed by stress. BUT.

    • Again, what conceivable “rule” could ever serve to immutably declare that “THIS goofing-off is critical for hippocampal plasticity” vs. “THAT goofing-off is just dumb, distracting bullshit?”
    • Impossible. Because drawing those kinds of distinctions is one of our most important day-to-day responsibilities. Decisions are hard, and there’s no app or alarm gadget that can change that.

      • Although, they certainly can help mask the depth of the underlying problem that made them seem so—what’s the parlance?—“indispensable”.
      • Think: Elmo Band-Aids for that unsightly pancreatic tumor.
  4. Reducing Distraction through Care (Rather than braces, armatures, and puppet strings). Removing interruptions and external distractions that harm your work or life? Great. Counting on your distraction-removal tool to supplement your non-existent motivation to do work that will never get done anyway? Pathetic.

    • Frankly, this is a big reason I'm so galled when anyone touts their tool/product/service as being the poor, misunderstood artist’s new miracle medicine—rather than just admitting they've made a slightly different spoon.
    • Because, let’s be honest: although most of us have plenty of perfectly serviceable spoons, everybody knows collecting cutlery is way more fun than using it to swallow yucky medicine.
  5. Using a System Vs. Becoming a System. Having a system or process for getting work done vs. making the iteration of that system or process a replacement for the work. This is just…wow…big.

    But, maybe most importantly to me…

  6. Embracing the Impossibles. Getting past these or any other intellectual koans by simply accepting life’s innumerable and unresolvable paradoxes, hypocrisies, and impossibilities as God-given gifts of creative constraint. Rather than, say, a mimeographed page of long division problems that must be solved for a whole number, n.

    • I just can’t ever get away from this one. For me, it’s what everything inevitably comes back to.
    • The very definition of our jobs is to solve the right problem at the right level for the right reason—based on a combination of the best info we have for now and a clear-eyed dedication to never pushing an unnecessary rock up an avoidable hill.
    • YET, we keep force-feeding the monster that tells us to fiddle and fart and blame the Big Cruel World whenever we face work that might threaten our fragile personal mythology.

      • “Sigh. I wish I could finally start writing My Novel….Ooooooh, if only I had a slightly nicer pen…and Zeus loved me more….”

All that stuff? That there’s a complex set of ideas to talk about for many complex reasons—not least of which being how many people either despise or (try to) deny the unavoidable impact of ol' number six.

But, here’s the thing: as much as saying so pisses anybody off, I think the topics we're NOT talking about whenever we disappear into Talmudic scholarship about “full-screen mode” or “minimalist desks” or whatever constitutes a “zen habit”—those shunned topics are precisely the things that I believe are most mind-blowingly critical to our real-world happiness as humans.

In fact, I believe that to such a degree that helping provide a voice for those unpopular topics that can be heard over the din is now (what passes for) my career. I really believe these deeper ideas are worth socializing on any number of levels and in many media. Even when it’s inconvenient and slightly disrespectful of someone’s business model.

So, that’s what I try to do. I talk about these things. Seldom by careful design. Often poorly. But, always because they each mean an awful lot to me.

[…]

But, no matter how I end up saying whatever the hell I say, I believe in saying it not simply to be liked or followed or revered as a “nice guy” who pushes out shit-tons of whatever to “help people.”

Because, believe me, friend, a great many of those apparently “nice guys” swarming around the web “helping people” these days are ass-fucking their audience for nickels and calling it a complimentary colonoscopy. And, while I absolutely think that in itself is empirically wrong, I also think it’s just as important to say that it’s wrong. Sometimes, True Things need to be said.

Which in this instance amounts to saying, a) selling people a prettier way to kinda almost but not really write is not, in the canonical sense, “nice”—but, far worse, b) leaving your starry-eyed customers with the nauseatingly misguided impression that their “distraction” originates from anyplace but their own busted-ass brain is really not “helping.” Not on any level. It is, literally, harmful.

“Helping” a junkie become more efficient at keeping his syringe loaded is hardly “nice.”

It’s the opposite of nice. And, it’s the opposite of helpful. These are my True Things.

And, to me, saying your True Things also means not watering down the message you care about in order to render it incapable of even conceivably hurting someone’s feelings—or of even conceivably losing you even one teeny-tiny slice of that precious “market share.”

Well, that’s the price, and I'm fine paying it—best money I've ever spent.

But, it also means trusting your audience by letting each of them decide to add water only as they choose to—by never corrupting the actual concentrate in a way that might make it less useful to the smartest or most eager 5% of people who'd like to try using it undiluted. Because, at that point, you're not only abandoning the coolest people you have the honor of serving—you risk becoming a charlatan.

And, that’s precisely what you become when you start to iteratively inbreed the kind of fucktard audience for whom daily buffets of weak swill and beige assurance are life’s most gratifying reward.

Sure. Those poor bastards may never end up using any of that watery information to do anything more ambitious than turbocharging their most regrettable symptoms. But, who’s the last person in the universe who’s going to grab them by the ears and tell them to get back to work? Exactly—that same “nice guy” whose livelihood now depends on keeping infantalized strangers addicted to his “help.”

Holy shit—no way could I ever live with that. It’s so wrong, it’s not even right. ESC, ESC, ESC!

[…]

Okay. So anyhow, there’s a really long-winded, overly generous, and extremely pompous way of trying to say I don’t know how to do what I do except how I do it. But, I do genuinely feel awful when innocent people feel they have been publicly humiliated or berated simply because I'm some dick who hates people.

Which has to be my favorite irony of all.

When I was a kid, I thought my Mom was “mean” not to let me play in traffic on busy Galbraith Road. Today, I'm not simply grateful that she had the strength and resolve to be so “mean”—I actually can’t imagine how sad it would be to not have people in your life who care enough about your long-term welfare to tell you to stop fucking around in traffic. To where you eventually might start even seeking 12x-daily safety hacks from some of the very same drivers whose recklessness may eventually kill you. Wow.

[…]

Admitting when life is complicated or things aren’t shiny and happy all the time strikes me as a wonderfully sane and adult way to conduct one’s life. That there are so many folks offended by even the existence of this anarchic idea is not a problem I can solve.

No more than I can wish useless email away or pray hard enough that it never rains on anyone’s leaky roof. All out of scope.

And, then, I jizzed on at length about how much I admire the recipient’s work. Which I do.


Good work doesn’t need a cookie

I may admire your work, too. Especially if you care a lot about that work and don’t overly sweat peoples' opinions of it. Most definitely including my own.

For these purposes, it doesn’t really matter whether we're friends and, honestly, it doesn’t even matter whether I love, use, or agree with everything you do, say, or make in a given day.

It doesn’t matter because good work doesn’t need me to love it. Like tornadoes and cold sores, good work happens with total disregard to whether I'm “into it.”

But, conversely, let’s stipulate that the points-of-view undergirding our opinions—again, including mine—will and should survive either agreement or lack of agreement with equivalently effortless ease. Because, like really good work, a really good point-of-view doesn’t require another person’s benediction.

Guess we'll have to disagree to agree

Now, to be only vaguely clearer here, I'm not posting this circuitous ego dump in the service of altering your opinion of either me, my friend, his work, or practically anything else for that matter.

But, I would love it if we could all be more okay with the fact that real life means that we do each have a different, sometimes incongruous, and often totally incompatible point-of-view. Yes. Even you have a point-of-view that someone despises. Ready to change it now? Jesus, I sure hope not.

Then, to be only slightly more clear, I'm also not advocating for that fakey brand of web-based kum ba ya that gets trotted out alternately as “tolerance” or “inclusion” or some styrofoam miniature of “civility.”

I'm absolutely not against all of those things when authentically practiced, but I'm also really skeptical of the well-branded peacemakers who are forever appointing themselves the Internet’s “Now-Now-Let’s-All-Pretend-We're-Just-Saying-the-Same-Useless-Thing-Here” den mothers.

Because we're not all saying the same things. Not at all.

And, it infantalizes some important conversations when we tacitly demand that any instance of honest disagreement be immediately horseshat into a photo opp where some thought leader gets to hoist everyone’s hands in the air like he’s fucking Jimmy Carter.

Nope. Not saying that.

Who will you really rely on?

What I AM saying is that alllllll this seemingly unrelated stuff is absolutely related—that the pattern of not relying on other people for anything you really care about is arguably the great-grandaddy of every useful productivity, creativity, or self-help pattern.

Where’s this matter? Pretty much everywhere you have any sort of stake:

  • Don’t rely on other people to remove your totally fake “distractions.”
  • Don’t rely on other people to pat your beret, re-tie your cravat, and make you a nice cocoa whenever that mean man on the internet points out that your “distractions” are totally fake. (Which they are)
  • Don’t rely on other people to tell you when or whether you have enough information.
  • Don’t rely on other people to define your job.
  • Don’t rely on other people to “design your lifestyle.”
  • Don’t rely on other people to decide when your opinions are acceptable.
  • Don’t rely on other people to tell you when you're allowed to be awesome.
  • Don’t rely on other people to make you care.
  • Don’t even rely on other people to tell you what you should or shouldn’t rely on.

Yes. I went there.

Because that’s the point. These hypocrisies, paradoxes, and ambiguities that people get so wound up about—that many of us are constantly (impotently) trying to resolve—cannot be resolved.

Because, yeah: all of these harrowingly unsolvable problems are immune to new notebooks and less-distracting applications and shinier systems and “nicer” self-“help” and pretty much anything else that is not, specifically, you walking straight into the angriest and least convenient shitstorm you can find and getting your ass kicked until the storm gets bored with kicking it.

Then, you find an even angrier storm. Then, another. And, so on.

“Get the fuck off of my obstacle, Private Pyle!”

Doing that annoying hard stuff is how you grow, get better, and learn what real help looks like. Even if that’s not the answer you wanted to hear. You get better by getting your ass out of your RSS reader and fucking making things until they suck less. Not by buying apps.

You don’t whine about distractions, or derail yourself over needing a nicer pencil sharpener, or aggravate your chronic creative diabetes by starting another desperate waddle to the self-help buffet. No. You work.

And, for what it’s worth, just like you can’t get to the moon by eating cheese, you'll also never leave boot camp with your original scrote intact by telling your drill sergeant to try using more honey than vinegar.

No. That sergeant’s job is to make you miserable. It’s his job to break down your callow conceits about what’s supposed to be easy and fair. It’s his job to emotionally pummel you into giving up and becoming a Marine.

You? You're not there to give the sergeant notes; you're there to sleep two hours a night, then not mind getting beaten for 20 hours until a decent Marine starts to fall out.

Who knows? He may even surprise you by introducing a surprisingly effective “distraction-free learning environment.”

“Tee ell dee ahr, Professor Brainiac.”

Like most humans, I like things I can understand. Like most readers, I love specificity. Like most thinkers, I love clarity. Like most students, I love relevance and practicality. And, like most busy people, believe it or not, I actually do really like it when someone gets straight to the point.

But, here’s the problem. If my 2-year-old daughter asks me about time travel, and I blithely announce, “E=mc2”, I will have said something that is entirely specific, clear, relevant, practical, and/or straight-to-the-point. For somebody.

But, not so much for my daughter. And, to be honest, not even to any useful degree for me.

She'd probably either laugh derisively at me (which she’s great at), or she'd pause and ask, “Whuh dat?” (which she’s even better at).

Thing is, her understanding that jumble of characters less than me—and my understanding it WAY less than Professor Al—has zero impact on the profundity, truth, beauty, or impact of the man’s theory.

Sure. You could quite accurately fault me for being a smartass and a poseur, and you could even berate my toddler for her unaccountably shallow understanding of Modern Physics. But, in any case, you can’t really blame either Albert or his theory.

You're turbocharging nothing

Specifically, Albert can’t begin to tell us what he really knows if we don’t understand math.

So, let’s say this theory you've been hearing about really interests you. And, let’s also pretend, just for the sake of the analogy, that you haven’t completed Calculus III (212) or Quantum Mechanics (403) or even something as elementary as, say, Advanced Astrophysics II (537). I know you have. Obviously. But, let’s pretend. Where do you start?

Well, you could read some tips about learning math. You could find a list of 500 indispensable resources for indispensable math resources. You could buy a new “distraction-free math environment.” Heck, there’s actually nothing to stop you from just declaring yourself a “math expert.” Congratulations, Professor.

Thing is: you still don’t know math.

Which means you still can’t really understand the theory—no more than a pathetic Liberal Arts refugee like me or a dullard Physics ignoramus like my kid can really grok relativity.

Difference is, you will have blown a lot of time hoping that actual expertise follows non-existent effort—while my daughter and I get to remain total novices without charge. Only, we don’t get all mad at the theory as a result; a staggering number of fake math experts do.

I mean, be honest—after all that recreational non-work and make-believe dedication almost trying to kinda learn math sorta—you might actually get frustrated at how brazenly Al defies your fondness for shortcuts by continuing to rely on so many terms and proofs and blah-blah-blah that you still just don’t understand. So annoying.

You may simply decide that Albert Einstein’s a huge dick for never saying things that can be completely understood solely by scanning a headline.

EPIC EINSTEIN FAIL, amirite?

You never really know what you didn’t know until you know it

But, Al just told the truth.

Problem is, Al’s truth not only requires fancy things in order to be truly understood—the more of those fancy things you take away from his truth, the less true it gets. And, by the time it’s been diluted to the point where you're comfortable that you understand it? You'd be understanding the wrong thing. Even I can understand that.

But, not one bit of any of this is Al’s fault. Al doesn’t get to control who uses, abuses, gets, or doesn’t get what he said or why it matters. Especially since he’s been dead for over fifty years.

All I know is, regardless of who has ears to hear it on a given day, it would be to Al’s credit never to mangle something important in order to get it into terms everybody’s ready to handle without actually trying.

And God bless him for never agreeing that your “distractions” to learning math are his problem.

So, yeah, if you only need to hand in a crappy 5-page paper, you could certainly Cliff’s Notes your way through Borges, Eliot, or Joyce in an afternoon, and feel like you haven’t missed a thing. Trouble is, if you did care even a little, it’s impossible to even say how much you're missing since you can’t be bothered to soldier through the source text. The text itself is the entire point.

Even the wonderfully cogent and readable layman’s explanations Einstein himself provided don’t really get to the nut, the application, and the implications of his real theory.

That all takes real math.

That “single datum of experience” matters

Sometimes, complex or difficult things stop being true when you try to make them too simple. Sometimes, you have to actually get laid to understand why people think sex is such a thing. Sometimes, you need to learn some Greek if you really want to understand The Gospel of John. And, yeah, sometimes, you're going to have to just work unbelievably hard at whatever you claim to care about before anyone can begin to help you get any better—or less “distracted”—at it.

The part I really know is what doesn’t work. Reading Penthouse Forum won’t help you CLEP out of Vaginal Intercourse 101. Watching a Rankin-Bass cartoon about the Easter Bunny will teach you very little about the intricacies of transubstantiation. And, if you can’t be troubled to care so much about your work that you reflexively force distractions away, dicking around with yet another writing application will merely aggravate the problem. Ironic, huh?

These quantum mechanics of personal productivity are rife with such frustrating “paradoxes.”

These are True Things.

Achieving expertise and doing creative work is all horribly complicated and difficult and paradoxical and frustrating and recursive and James Joyce-y—and any guide, blog, binary, guru, or “nice guy” that tries to suggest otherwise is probably giving you a complimentary colonoscopy. Do the math.

Want a new syllabus? Sure:

Run straight into your shitstorm, my friends. Reject the impulse to think about work, rather than finishing it. And, open your heart to the remote possibility that any mythology of personal failure that involves messiahs periodically arriving to make everything “easy” for you might not really be helping your work or your mental health or your long-standing addiction to using tools solely to ship new excuses.

Learn your real math, and any slide rule will suffice. Try, make, and do until you quit noticing the tools, and if you still think you need new tools, go try, make, and do more.

If you can pull off this deceptively simple and millennia-old pattern, you'll eventually find that—god by dying god—any partial truth that’s supported your treasured excuses for not working will be replaced by a no-faith-required knowledge that you're really, actually, finally getting better at something you care about.

Which is just sublimely un-distracting.


Dedication

This article is dedicated to my friend, Greg Knauss. No, he’s not the app guy–he’s just a good man who does good work, who accidentally/unintentionally helped me write this rant. He also happens to be a fella who could teach anyone a thing or two about writing with distractions. Thanks, Greg.

“Distraction,” Simplicity, and Running Toward Shitstorms” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on October 05, 2010. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?"




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Video: "Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them)"

A couple weeks ago, my pals at Twitter were kind enough to invite me in to visit with their (rapidly growing) team. The topic was meetings, so I used it as an opportunity to publicly premiere a talk I've been presenting to private clients over the past few months.

I hope you'll enjoy, Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them).

Slides:

Supplementary links and commentary forthcoming, but I wanted to go ahead and post the talk as quickly as the video was available. Special thanks to Michelle, Jeremy, and the crackerjack Twitter crew for a swell afternoon.

I really like this talk and sincerely hope you will find it useful in helping to un-break your own meetings.


Video: "Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them)"” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on October 06, 2010. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?"




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Video: John Roderick on String Art Owls, Copper Pipe, and Bono's Boss

[jump to video]

Long story (not very) short? One night in 2003--after killing it in front of audience of about 30 lucky people in Oakland--The Long Winters needed a place to crash, and my wife and I were happy to oblige. 

So, they drove their Big Stinky Blue Van over the bridge, slept on our floor, and by breakfast the next morning, it'd become clear to me that I'd provided lodging to a man who was not only very likely a member of my karass--he was also one of the smartest bullshit artists I'd ever met. 

Almost eight years later, although I don't see him nearly as much as I'd like, I still count the guy as one of my best pals ever.

That's John Roderick. And, I think you need to know about him.

John doesn't read this site--he's more of a Twitter person--so I don't risk feeding his astounding excess of dignity by saying he's one of the most gifted writers and bon vivants of our generation. He's just the best. In large part because he's congenitally incapable of suffering bullshit.

This was never more apparent than the Saturday morning in 2007 when we sat in my back yard and talked about a lot of stuff. Playing guitar, advertising on the web, the evil work of promoters, and why everyone is always trying to shortchange everyone on copper pipe. 

That talking became a four-part interview I ran on the late and occasionally lamented The Merlin Show, and, to this day, it's one of my favorite things I've been lucky enough to post to the web.

So, y'know how I'm definitely "not for everyone?" Well, John is really "not for everyone."

He's opinionated and arrogant and undiplomatic and unironically loves Judas Priest--meaning everyone will find at least one thing not to like about him. Despite being hairy and enjoying laying on your bed, John is not exactly a teddy bear. 

But, John's also right a lot. And, he never sands off the edges of his personality or opinions to make you theoretically "like" him. Which, it will come as no surprise to you, is a big reason I love the guy more than a free prime rib dinner. 

So, why the jizzfest about that awful jerk, John Roderick?

Because, as I noted the other day on the Twitter, in our first episode of Back to Work I misattributed a line that should have been credited to John. Which in itself is unimportant, except inasmuch as finding that link to correct the error got me watching our 50-some minutes of chatting again. I also received some at-responses and emails that reminded me how much people enjoyed our chat. 

But, really it made me realize how much that rambling morning in my back yard still resonates so much with stuff I care a lot about. Independence. Agency. Directness. And, never apologizing for wanting to get paid. Also, guitars and talkative hippies.

So, anyway. John. 

I edited all four parts of the video into one big (streamable/downloadable) movie that should make it way easier to watch at a sitting. Should that interest you. Which it may not. Which, as ever, is totally fine, and kind of the point.

But. If you like Dan and my new show (and, seriously—God bless you magnificent bastards who helped briefly make B2W the most popular podcast in the world [gulp]), I think you'll really like this interview a lot too. I hope so, anyway.

Thus, submitted for your disapproval, permit me to present my four-year-old visit with the acerbic, opinionated, and reportedly unlikeable bullshit artist whom I respect and adore more than just about anybody. 

Meet Hotrod.

Video: John Roderick on String Art Owls, Copper Pipe, and Bono's Boss” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on January 21, 2011. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?"




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Nerdiest Interview Ever: MPU Workflows Part II

MPU 046: Workflows with Merlin Mann II « Mac Power Users


I have the life that I have because I've made a lot of weird decisions, and they've worked out well.


Not gonna lie to you. I'm a huge nerd. Surprised?

Yep. I can recite big chunks of The Big Lebowski from memory. I can argue for an hour on the merits of Dick York over Dick Sargent. And, I can—and frequently do—catch myself thinking Catwoman, Batgirl, Princess Leia, and Emma Peel should have a light-hearted pillow fight that ends with an hour of genial french-kissing.

Pretty much like you, probably. I dunno, maybe your version includes Kitty Pryde. Po-tay-to/Po-taht-o, right?

Perhaps most saliently, by virtue of having spent a solid 2,399 days as a Fake Productivity Guru, I have been provided with an unquestionably Janusian monkey's paw of a gift; I now know a lot about workflows. Nerdy, nerdy workflows.

I can tell you a few things that almost always work, I can tell you a handful of things that almost never work, and—best or worst of all—I can tell you thousands of things that might work. Sometimes. Maybe. Kinda. For some people. For now.

And, at the risk of gay-marrying my arrogance to my hypocrisy, I can tell you that I also know enough about the unholy diarrhea of potential options for Theoretical Productivity to share two big patterns:

  1. Getting your workflow right matters.
  2. Getting your workflow right to the exclusion of the actual work is a fool's game.

But. Managing to get the most useful and most elegant and least fiddly mix of 1 and 2 right is super-hard. Especially for nerds. Especially for me.


So, as I type this today, I believe there can be no greater testament to these claims—or, at least, no greater place to test the veracity of these claims for yourself—than in this TWO AND A HALF HOUR-long interview for Mac Power Users.

It is reeeeeeeeally nerdy. Almost intolerably nerdy. Just…overwhelmingly nerdy.

But, man, is it ever really good, and really fat with the most insanely granular details of How I Work.

Lo, even these 928.5 days after officially retiring from productivity pr0n, my desire to not "vend stroke material for your joyless addiction to puns about procrastination and systems for generating more taxonomically satisfying meta-work" is tempered by a (widely under-reported) practical streak.

Yes: I continue to despise empty advice about rearranging deck chairs on The Titanic. But, yes: I do also still very much enjoy talking about how all the tips and tricks can or can't work in the context of work you care about. That matters. It really does.


So. Here goes. A one hundred and forty six minute-long, Joyce-ian amble through the Big Stuff and the Little Stuff. David and Katie were very patient.

How I name text files. Why I break iOS apps. Why I love the letter "x." Why I won't row out to islands any more. How a 115,000 word book manuscript is "like a house full of confederate money." How "The Cloud" broke in New Zealand. How I use MultiMarkdown, Scrivener, TextExpander, OmniFocus, TextMate, Notational Velocity, Dropbox, and an explosive combination of Elements, Notesy, Nebulous, Simplenote, CF Outliner, iThoughts, Instacast, Good Reader, and wow wow wow.

How I try not to fiddle—how I sometimes succeed and often don't. But, how I try.

Anyhow. There you go. A perfectly nerdy bookend to last year's first Magnum Opus MPU interview on these same topics, Mac Power Users Episode 46 is just insanely nerdy. And, what have you.

I hope you like it. I hope it's useful. I hope you don't use it to replace real work.

And, as ever, I really hope Batgirl starts having more sexy pillow fights.

Enjoy. And, God save you.


MPU 046: Workflows with Merlin Mann II « Mac Power Users

Nerdiest Interview Ever: MPU Workflows Part II” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on March 27, 2011. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?"





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Human remains found in Mulmur Township confirmed to be missing Caledon senior

Human remains located in Mulmur Township in March have been confirmed to be those of an 88-year-old Caledon man who was reported missing seven months ago.




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Local health unit credits public with slowing COVID spread, encourages cottagers to stay home

While infection rates remain steady across the region, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit is reporting more than half of all 360 cases have now recovered.




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Mother Nature blankets parts of Muskoka with spring snowfall

The calendar may say May, but that didn't stop Mother Nature from blasting some wintry weather in Muskoka on Friday.




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Will restaurants be allowed to offer alcohol for take-out and delivery after pandemic?

Restaurants have been struggling to stay afloat since the pandemic hit, but there has been a silver lining: relaxed liquor laws mean customers can get their booze delivered along with their meals.




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MI Barber Shop Owner Defies Gov. Whitmer Shutdown Order…Opens Business…Police Officer Walks In…Says, “I love you!”…Walks Out

The following article, MI Barber Shop Owner Defies Gov. Whitmer Shutdown Order…Opens Business…Police Officer Walks In…Says, “I love you!”…Walks Out, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Last week, we reported about how Shelley Luther, owner of the Salon Á La Mode in North Dallas, Texas, who opened up her business in defiance of lockdown orders in the city. The salon owner said that she was ignoring a citation and a cease and desist order from the city to shut down. This one […]

Continue reading: MI Barber Shop Owner Defies Gov. Whitmer Shutdown Order…Opens Business…Police Officer Walks In…Says, “I love you!”…Walks Out ...




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Donald Trump Jr. Offers To Walk Bride-to-Be Down The Aisle After Liberal Parents Refuse To Attend Her Wedding Because Fiance Is A Conservative

The following article, Donald Trump Jr. Offers To Walk Bride-to-Be Down The Aisle After Liberal Parents Refuse To Attend Her Wedding Because Fiance Is A Conservative, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

TDS or Trump Derangement Syndrome brings out the worst in a lot of people. One young Texan girl’s story of her intolerant parents who refuse to attend her wedding because she’s marrying a conservative, however, is a new low. Lawyer and conservative civil rights activist, Rogan O’Handley tweeted a Tik Tok video of a Texan […]

Continue reading: Donald Trump Jr. Offers To Walk Bride-to-Be Down The Aisle After Liberal Parents Refuse To Attend Her Wedding Because Fiance Is A Conservative ...




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BREAKING: Sen Marsha Blackburn Introduces Stop COVID Act…Allowing US Citizens To Sue Communist China For Damage They’ve Inflicted On Our Nation

The following article, BREAKING: Sen Marsha Blackburn Introduces Stop COVID Act…Allowing US Citizens To Sue Communist China For Damage They’ve Inflicted On Our Nation, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Yesterday, Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), along with Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ) introduced the Stop COVID Act, giving Americans the ability to sue Communist China for the damage they’ve inflicted on our nation. Senator Blackburn appeared on Fox News with host Judge Jeanine where she explained the act to Jeanine Pirro. Blackburn told the Fox News […]

Continue reading: BREAKING: Sen Marsha Blackburn Introduces Stop COVID Act…Allowing US Citizens To Sue Communist China For Damage They’ve Inflicted On Our Nation ...




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77-Yr-Old MI Barber Defies Gov Whitmer’s Shutdown Order: ”I don’t need another mother” Shop Will Stay Open Until “Jesus walks in or until they arrest me” [VIDEO]

The following article, 77-Yr-Old MI Barber Defies Gov Whitmer’s Shutdown Order: ”I don’t need another mother” Shop Will Stay Open Until “Jesus walks in or until they arrest me” [VIDEO], was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Emergency orders that “non-essential businesses” remain closed during the Covid-19 crisis have devastated small business owners across America. A wave of business owners across the nation are defying executive orders by their governors and opening their businesses anyhow. Yesterday, we reported about a small business owner in the state of Michigan, where Governor Gretchen Whitmer […]

Continue reading: 77-Yr-Old MI Barber Defies Gov Whitmer’s Shutdown Order: ”I don’t need another mother” Shop Will Stay Open Until “Jesus walks in or until they arrest me” [VIDEO] ...




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NY Shame: Workers Who Tested Positive For COVID-19 Were Allowed To Remain On The Job At Nursing Homes, As Death Toll For Nursing Home Patients Exceeds 3,000

The following article, NY Shame: Workers Who Tested Positive For COVID-19 Were Allowed To Remain On The Job At Nursing Homes, As Death Toll For Nursing Home Patients Exceeds 3,000, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

The coronavirus crisis at New York’s nursing homes is even worse than previously thought. Monday night, the state Department of Health issued new data, adding more than 1,600 people who were presumed to have died of the virus in nursing homes, but did not have a confirmed diagnosis, to the official toll. As of May […]

Continue reading: NY Shame: Workers Who Tested Positive For COVID-19 Were Allowed To Remain On The Job At Nursing Homes, As Death Toll For Nursing Home Patients Exceeds 3,000 ...




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Breaking: Texas AG Calls for Immediate Release of Salon Owner Jailed for Opening…Texas Lt Gov Offers to Pay Salon Owner’s $7k Fine

The following article, Breaking: Texas AG Calls for Immediate Release of Salon Owner Jailed for Opening…Texas Lt Gov Offers to Pay Salon Owner’s $7k Fine, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Salon A La Mode owner Shelley Luther opened her salon in defiance of the lockdown order for salons to stay closed during the coronavirus crisis. She boldly ripped. up the citation she was given by the police and refused to shut her doors. Luther hired a lawyer and went to court where an activist judge […]

Continue reading: Breaking: Texas AG Calls for Immediate Release of Salon Owner Jailed for Opening…Texas Lt Gov Offers to Pay Salon Owner’s $7k Fine ...




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Attorney for Jailed Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Slams Obama Loyalist Judge as a “Tiny Tyrant”

The following article, Attorney for Jailed Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Slams Obama Loyalist Judge as a “Tiny Tyrant”, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Warren Norred, attorney for Shelley Luther, joined Tucker Carlson to discuss the decision by an Obama loyalist Texas judge to jail his client for reopening her salon during the COVID-19 pandemic. Norred said the judge has exposed himself for the “tiny tyrant” that he is. The judge jailed Luther and even fined her $7,000. Texas […]

Continue reading: Attorney for Jailed Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Slams Obama Loyalist Judge as a “Tiny Tyrant” ...




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MSNBC’s Brian Williams Chuckles With Dem Strategist as He Gloats, Mocks Trump About Tragic Downturn in Economy: “They were going to lose before this hit. They’re just going to lose worse now”

The following article, MSNBC’s Brian Williams Chuckles With Dem Strategist as He Gloats, Mocks Trump About Tragic Downturn in Economy: “They were going to lose before this hit. They’re just going to lose worse now”, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

James Carville spoke out before the coronavirus crisis to say that there is no way  Joe Biden has a chance at beating President Trump in the 2020 election. Well, He’s singing a different tune now at the expense of Americans suffering through this horrible pandemic and economic crisis. James Carvill is a Democratic strategist who […]

Continue reading: MSNBC’s Brian Williams Chuckles With Dem Strategist as He Gloats, Mocks Trump About Tragic Downturn in Economy: “They were going to lose before this hit. They’re just going to lose worse now” ...




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Texas Gov Abbott Frees Salon Owner Shelley Luther: “Criminals shouldn’t be released to prevent COVID-19 just to put business owners in their place”

The following article, Texas Gov Abbott Frees Salon Owner Shelley Luther: “Criminals shouldn’t be released to prevent COVID-19 just to put business owners in their place”, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott just changed the coronavirus order to free Salon A La Mode owner Shelley Luther from jail. Abbott tweeted out a comment about the poor treatment of the business owner: Throwing Texans in jail whose biz’s shut down through no fault of their own is wrong. I am eliminating jail for violating […]

Continue reading: Texas Gov Abbott Frees Salon Owner Shelley Luther: “Criminals shouldn’t be released to prevent COVID-19 just to put business owners in their place” ...




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Video: Salon Owner Shelley Luther Released from Jail After Obama-Loyalist Judge Sentenced Her to 7 Days

The following article, Video: Salon Owner Shelley Luther Released from Jail After Obama-Loyalist Judge Sentenced Her to 7 Days, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Salon A La Mode owner Shelley Luther was just released from jail today. The Texas Supreme Court and Texas Governor Greg Abbott both called for her release today (see below). When Luther left jail she was greeted by supporters who yelled “Shelley’s Free!” She thanked all of the new friends she’s made during this difficult […]

Continue reading: Video: Salon Owner Shelley Luther Released from Jail After Obama-Loyalist Judge Sentenced Her to 7 Days ...




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BREAKING: Michigan’s Radical Governor Extends Lockdown AGAIN…Only One Day After Church Leaders and MI Lawmakers File Suit Against Her

The following article, BREAKING: Michigan’s Radical Governor Extends Lockdown AGAIN…Only One Day After Church Leaders and MI Lawmakers File Suit Against Her, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Michigan was the first state to see protests against draconian lockdown measures by an overreaching governor. On April 15, the Michigan Conservative Coalition organized an in-vehicle protest in Lansing, MI that drew an estimated 15,000 vehicles. Since that time, several protests by Michigan workers who are being devastated by the one-size-fits-all shut down of the […]

Continue reading: BREAKING: Michigan’s Radical Governor Extends Lockdown AGAIN…Only One Day After Church Leaders and MI Lawmakers File Suit Against Her ...




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Mother of the Year, Michelle Obama Explains How Having Kids Was A “Concession”… Had To Give Up Her “Aspirations and Dreams” [VIDEO]

The following article, Mother of the Year, Michelle Obama Explains How Having Kids Was A “Concession”… Had To Give Up Her “Aspirations and Dreams” [VIDEO], was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

While campaigning for her community organizer turned presidential candidate husband, Barack, Michelle Obama told a crowd of his supporters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin that for the first time in her life, she was proud to be an American. Four years later, Michelle Obama was a keynote speaker at the DNC convention, where she told Democrats how […]

Continue reading: Mother of the Year, Michelle Obama Explains How Having Kids Was A “Concession”… Had To Give Up Her “Aspirations and Dreams” [VIDEO] ...




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BREAKING: New Docs Prove Obama Knew Details Of Flynn Wiretapping…Newly Surfaced Video Shows Obama Explaining How He Stays Out Of FBI Investigations

The following article, BREAKING: New Docs Prove Obama Knew Details Of Flynn Wiretapping…Newly Surfaced Video Shows Obama Explaining How He Stays Out Of FBI Investigations, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Barack Obama knew. Documents released yesterday that were used to exonerate President Trump’s new NSA General Flynn, prove that President Barack Obama was aware of the details of Michael Flynn’s intercepted phone calls on December 16 with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. On January 5, 2017, then-Deputy Attorney General, Sally Yates attended an Oval Office meeting […]

Continue reading: BREAKING: New Docs Prove Obama Knew Details Of Flynn Wiretapping…Newly Surfaced Video Shows Obama Explaining How He Stays Out Of FBI Investigations ...




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Video: Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Gets Surprise Visit from Sen Ted Cruz for a Celebratory Haircut

The following article, Video: Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Gets Surprise Visit from Sen Ted Cruz for a Celebratory Haircut, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

When Dallas, Texas salon owner Shelley Luther opened her salon in defiance of the lockdown order in Texas, she was visited numerous times by the local police and then sentenced to 7 days in jail with a fine of $7,000. After public outrage at her punishment, the Texas Supreme Court stepped in to demand her […]

Continue reading: Video: Dallas Salon Owner Shelley Luther Gets Surprise Visit from Sen Ted Cruz for a Celebratory Haircut ...




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Watch: Biden Pulls Awkward Stunt During Town Hall

The following article, Watch: Biden Pulls Awkward Stunt During Town Hall, was first published on 100PercentFedUp.com.

Joe Biden began his virtual town hall on Saturday with the political stunt of wearing a mask in his own home. Biden was attempting to host a live town hall with NowThis News, but glitch after glitch happened throughout the Biden campaign’s attempt to reach supporters. When the video below begins, it looks like he’s […]

Continue reading: Watch: Biden Pulls Awkward Stunt During Town Hall ...




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Owners of new retail cannabis store hoping to open soon in Pillette Village

At a time when store front vacancies are growing thanks to COVID-19, a new retail cannabis store in Pillette Village is hoping to open soon.




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How Winnipeggers can celebrate Mother's Day during COVID-19

Mother's Day is Sunday, but with COVID-19, it's forcing many to change their plans.




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Overnight snow expected in areas of Southern Manitoba

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for the southwestern area of Manitoba.




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May snowstorm buries southwest Manitobans

Instead of May flowers, Manitobans in the southwest part of the province received a blanketing of snow for Mother's Day weekend.




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Brexit: What Now for UK Trade Policy? (Part 2)

Research Event

1 October 2019 - 12:30pm to 1:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Jagjit S. Chadha, Director, NIESR
Dr Kamala Dawar, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex; Fellow, UKTPO
Dr Michael Gasiorek, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis; Fellow, UKTPO
Chair: Professor Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UKTPO; Associate Fellow, Chatham House

In the five months since the last extension of the Brexit deadline, the questions about the UK’s trading relationship with the EU remain as open as before, as do those about what sort of relationship it should seek with other partners.

The world has not stood still, however, and so the UKTPO is convening another panel to consider constructive ways of moving forward. The panel will discuss potential trajectories for UK trade policy, followed by a question and answer session.

The UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) is a partnership between Chatham House and the University of Sussex which provides independent expert comment on, and analysis of, trade policy proposals for the UK as well as training for British policymakers through tailored training packages.




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The EU Cannot Build a Foreign Policy on Regulatory Power Alone

11 February 2020

Alan Beattie

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme and Europe Programme
Brussels will find its much-vaunted heft in setting standards cannot help it advance its geopolitical interests.

2020-02-11-Leyen.jpg

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg in February. Photo: Getty Images.

There are two well-established ideas in trade. Individually, they are correct. Combined, they can lead to a conclusion that is unfortunately wrong.

The first idea is that, across a range of economic sectors, the EU and the US have been engaged in a battle to have their model of regulation accepted as the global one, and that the EU is generally winning.

The second is that governments can use their regulatory power to extend strategic and foreign policy influence.

The conclusion would seem to be that the EU, which has for decades tried to develop a foreign policy, should be able to use its superpower status in regulation and trade to project its interests and its values abroad.

That’s the theory. It’s a proposition much welcomed by EU policymakers, who know they are highly unlikely any time soon to acquire any of the tools usually required to run an effective foreign policy.

The EU doesn’t have an army it can send into a shooting war, enough military or political aid to prop up or dispense of governments abroad, or a centralized intelligence service. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has declared her outfit to be a ‘geopolitical commission’, and is casting about for any means of making that real.

Through the ‘Brussels effect’ whereby European rules and standards are exported via both companies and governments, the EU has indeed won many regulatory battles with the US.

Its cars, chemicals and product safety regulations are more widely adopted round the world than their American counterparts. In the absence of any coherent US offering, bar some varied state-level systems, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the closest thing the world has to a single model for data privacy, and variants of it are being adopted by dozens of countries.

The problem is this. Those parts of global economic governance where the US is dominant – particularly the dollar payments system – are highly conducive to projecting US power abroad. The extraterritorial reach of secondary sanctions, plus the widespread reliance of banks and companies worldwide on dollar funding – and hence the American financial system – means that the US can precisely target its influence.

The EU can enforce trade sanctions, but not in such a powerful and discriminatory way, and it will always be outgunned by the US. Donald Trump could in effect force European companies to join in his sanctions on Iran when he pulled out of the nuclear deal, despite EU legislation designed to prevent their businesses being bullied. He can go after the chief financial officer of Huawei for allegedly breaching those sanctions.

By contrast, the widespread adoption of GDPR or data protection regimes inspired by it may give the EU a warm glow of satisfaction, but it cannot be turned into a geopolitical tool in the same way.

Nor, necessarily, does it particularly benefit the EU economy. Europe’s undersized tech sector seems unlikely to unduly benefit from the fact that data protection rules were written in the EU. Indeed, one common criticism of the regulations is that they entrench the power of incumbent tech giants like Google.

There is a similar pattern at work in the adoption of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. In that field, the EU and its member states are also facing determined competition from China, which has been pushing its technologies and standards through forums such as the International Telecommunication Union.

The EU has been attempting to write international rules for the use of AI which it hopes to be widely adopted. But again, these are a constraint on the use of new technologies largely developed by others, not the control of innovation.

By contrast, China has created a vast domestic market in technologies like facial recognition and unleashed its own companies on it. The resulting surveillance kit can then be marketed to emerging market governments as part of China’s enduring foreign policy campaign to build up supporters in the developing world.

If it genuinely wants to turn its economic power into geopolitical influence – and it’s not entirely clear what it would do with it if it did – the EU needs to recognize that not all forms of regulatory and trading dominance are the same.

Providing public goods to the world economy is all very well. But unless they are so particular in nature that they project uniquely European values and interests, that makes the EU a supplier of useful plumbing but not a global architect of power.

On the other hand, it could content itself with its position for the moment. It could recognize that not until enough hard power – guns, intelligence, money – is transferred from the member states to the centre, or until the member states start acting collectively, will the EU genuinely become a geopolitical force. Speaking loudly and carrying a stick of foam rubber is rarely a way to gain credibility in international relations.

This article is part of a series of publications and roundtable discussions in the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.




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How to Fight the Economic Fallout From the Coronavirus

4 March 2020

Creon Butler

Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models: Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme
Finance ministries and central banks have a critical role to play to mitigate the threat Covid-19 poses to the global economy.

2020-03-03-TokyoCV.jpg

A pedestrian wearing a face mask walks past stock prices in Tokyo on 25 February. Photo: Getty Images.

Epidemics, of the size of Covid-19, have huge economic impacts – not just from the costs of managing the health of people, but stopping them, and keeping the economy working. The 10% fall in global stock markets since it became clear that Covid-19 would not be limited to China has boldly highlighted this.

Suppressing the epidemic, but allowing the economy to still function, requires key decisions, in which central banks and finance ministries play a part.

The role of fiscal and monetary authorities in managing an epidemic economy

The scope to use monetary policy to manage the economic impact of Covid-19 is limited. The fact that the underlying cause of the shock is an infectious disease outbreak (rather than a banking crisis, as in 2008-09) and nominal interest rates are currently close to zero in most major advanced economies reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Since 2010, reductions in fiscal deficits mean there is more scope for supportive fiscal action. But even here, high public debt levels and the desire not to underwrite ‘zombie’ companies that may have been sustained by a decade of ultra-low interest rates remain constraints. 

However, outside broad based fiscal and monetary policies there are six ways in which finance ministries and central banks will play a critical role in responding to the crisis.

first crucial role for finance ministries and central banks is in helping provide the best possible economic evaluation of strict containment measures (trying to isolate each potential case) versus managing the epidemic (delaying the spread of the virus, protecting the most vulnerable and treating the sick, while enabling the majority of people to get on with daily life). Given the economic consequences, they must play a full part, alongside health experts, in advising political leaders on this key decision.

Second, if large numbers of staff are required to work from home to manage the epidemic, they have the lead role in doing whatever is necessary to ensure that financial markets – and thus the wider economy – will continue to function smoothly.

Third, they need to ensure adequate funding for the public health response. Steps that can make an enormous difference to the success of containment strategies, such as strengthening surveillance, and guaranteeing the availability of testing kits and protective equipment for front line health workers, must not fail because of a lack of funding. 

Fourth, they have a lead role in designing targeted economic interventions for the wider economy. Some of these are needed immediately to re-enforce and incentivize strict containment strategies, such as ensuring that employees without full or adequate sick leave cover have the financial support to enable them to report and self-isolate when they get sick. 

Other interventions may help improve the resilience of the economy in accommodating moderate ‘social distancing’ measures; for example, by providing assistance to small firms to help them gear up for home working.

Yet others are needed, as a contingency, to safeguard the most vulnerable sectors (such as tourism, retail and transport) in circumstances where there is a prolonged downturn. The latter may include schemes to allow deferral of tax payments by SMEs, or steps to encourage loan extensions and other forms of liquidity support from the banking system, or by moves to underwrite continued provision of business insurance.

Fifth, national economic authorities will need to play their part in combatting ‘fake news’ through providing transparent and high-quality analysis. This includes providing forecasts on the likely economic impact of the virus under different scenarios, but also detailed information on the support and contingency measures they are considering, so they can be improved and refined through feedback. 

Sixth, they will need to ensure that there is generous international support for poor countries, by ensuring the available multilateral support facilities from the international financial institutions and multilateral development banks are adequately funded and fit for purpose. The World Bank has already announced an initial $12 billion financing package, but much more is likely to be needed.

They also need to support coordinated bilateral aid where this is more effective, as well as special measures to support particularly vulnerable groups, for example, in refugee camps and prisons. Given the importance of distributing sophisticated medical equipment and expertise quickly, it is also important that every effort is made to avoid delays due to customs and migration checks.

Managing the future

The response to the immediate crisis will rightly take priority now, but economic authorities must also play their part in ensuring the world finally takes decisive steps to prevent a repeat of Covid-19 in future.

The experience with SARS, H1N1 and Ebola shows that, while some progress is made after each outbreak, this is often not sustained. This epidemic shows that managing diseases is absolutely critical to the long-term health of global economy, and doubly so in circumstances where traditional central bank and finance ministry tools for dealing with major global economic shocks are limited.

Finance ministries and central banks therefore need to push hard within government to ensure sustained long-term funding of research on prevention and strengthening of public health systems. They also need to ensure that the right lessons are drawn by the private sector on making international supply chains more robust.

Critical to the overall success of the economic effort will be effective international coordination. The G20 was established as the premier economic forum for international economic cooperation in 2010, and global health issues have been a substantive part of the G20 agenda since the 2017 Hamburg Summit. At the same time, G7 finance ministers and deputies remain one of the most effective bodies for managing economic crises on a day-to-day basis and should continue this within the framework provided by the G20.

However, to be effective, the US, as current president of the G7, will need to put aside its reservations on multilateral economic cooperation and working with China to provide strong leadership.




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COVID-19: How Do We Re-open the Economy?

21 April 2020

Creon Butler

Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models: Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme
Following five clear steps will create the confidence needed for both the consumer and business decision-making which is crucial to a strong recovery.

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Chain wrapped around the door of a Saks Fifth Avenue Inc. store in San Francisco, California, during the COVID-19 crisis. Photo by David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

With the IMF forecasting a 6.1% fall in advanced economy GDP in 2020 and world trade expected to contract by 11%, there is intense focus on the question of how and when to re-open economies currently in lockdown.

But no ‘opening up’ plan has a chance of succeeding unless it commands the confidence of all the main actors in the economy – employees, consumers, firms, investors and local authorities.

Without public confidence, these groups may follow official guidance only sporadically; consumers will preserve cash rather than spend it on goods and services; employees will delay returning to work wherever possible; businesses will face worsening bottlenecks as some parts of the economy open up while key suppliers remain closed; and firms will continue to delay many discretionary investment and hiring decisions.

Achieving public confidence

Taken together, these behaviours would substantially reduce the chances of a strong economic bounce-back even in the absence of a widespread second wave of infections. Five key steps are needed to achieve a high degree of public confidence in any reopening plan.

First, enough progress must be made in suppressing the virus and in building public health capacity so the public can be confident any new outbreak will be contained without reverting to another full-scale lockdown. Moreover, the general public needs to feel that the treatment capacity of the health system is at a level where the risk to life if someone does fall ill with the virus is at an acceptably low level.

Achieving this requires the government to demonstrate the necessary capabilities - testing, contact tracing, quarantine facilities, supplies of face masks and other forms of PPE (personal protective equipment) - are actually in place and can be sustained, rather than relying on future commitments. It also needs to be clear on the role to be played going forward by handwashing and other personal hygiene measures.

Second, the authorities need to set out clear priorities on which parts of the economy are to open first and why. This needs to take account of both supply side and demand side factors, such as the importance of a particular sector to delivering essential supplies, a sector’s ability to put in place effective protocols to protect its employees and customers, and its importance to the functioning of other parts of the economy. There is little point in opening a car assembly plant unless its SME suppliers are able to deliver the required parts.

Detailed planning of the phasing of specific relaxation measures is essential, as is close cooperation between business and the authorities. The government also needs to establish a centralised coordination function capable of dealing quickly with any unexpected supply chain glitches. And it must pay close attention to feedback from health experts on how the process of re-opening the economy sector-by-sector is affecting the rate of infection.  

Third, the government needs to state how the current financial and economic support measures for the economy will evolve as the re-opening process continues. It is critical to avoid removing support measures too soon, and some key measures may have to continue to operate even as firms restart their operations. It is important to show how - over time - the measures will evolve from a ‘life support’ system for businesses and individuals into a more conventional economic stimulus.

This transition strategy could initially be signalled through broad principles, but the government needs to follow through quickly by detailing specific measures. The transition strategy must target sectors where most damage has been done, including the SME sector in general and specific areas such as transport, leisure and retail. It needs to factor in the hard truth that some businesses will be no longer be viable after the crisis and set out how the government is going to support employees and entrepreneurs who suffer as a result.

The government must also explain how it intends to learn the lessons and capture the upsides from the crisis by building a more resilient economy over the longer term. Most importantly, it has to demonstrate continued commitment to tackling climate change – which is at least as big a threat to mankind’s future as pandemics.

Fourth, the authorities should explain how they plan to manage controls on movement of people across borders to minimise the risk of new infection outbreaks, but also to help sustain the opening-up measures. This needs to take account of the fact that different countries are at different stages in the progress of the pandemic and may have different strategies and trade-offs on the risks they are willing to take as they open up.

As a minimum, an effective border plan requires close cooperation with near neighbours as these are likely to be the most important economic counterparts for many countries. But ideally each country’s plan should be part of a wider global opening-up strategy coordinated by the G20. In the absence of a reliable antibody test, border control measures will have to rely on a combination of imperfect testing, quarantine, and new, shared data requirements for incoming and departing passengers.  

Fifth, the authorities must communicate the steps effectively to the public, in a manner that shows not only that this is a well thought-through plan, but also does not hide the extent of the uncertainties, or the likelihood that rapid modifications may be needed as the plan is implemented. In designing the communications, the authorities should develop specific measures to enable the public to track progress.

Such measures are vital to sustaining business, consumer and employee confidence. While some smaller advanced economies appear close to completing these steps, for many others there is still a long way to go. Waiting until they are achieved means higher economic costs in the short-term. But, in the long-term, they will deliver real net benefits.

Authorities are more likely to sustain these measures because key economic actors will actually follow the guidance given. Also, by instilling confidence, the plan will bring forward the consumer and business decision-making crucial to a strong recovery. In contrast, moving ahead without proper preparation risks turning an already severe economic recession into something much worse.




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Report Launch – Owners of the Republic: An Anatomy of Egypt's Military Economy

Research Event

12 December 2019 - 5:30pm to 6:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Yezid Sayigh, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Middle East Center
David Butter, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Lina Khatib, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

The Egyptian military accounts for far less of the national economy than is commonly believed but transformations in its role and scope since 2013 have turned it into an autonomous economic actor that can reshape markets and influence government policy and investment strategies. Will the military economy contract to its former enclave status if Egypt achieves successful economic growth or has it acquired a permanent stake that it will defend or even expand?

This roundtable will mark the London launch of a Carnegie Middle East Center report on Egypt’s military economy. The report author, Yezid Sayigh, will begin the discussion with remarks on Egypt’s military economy model and offer thoughts on how external actors can engage the country’s formal and informal networks. David Butter will serve as discussant and the roundtable will be moderated by Lina Khatib.

To attend this event, please e-mail Reni Zhelyazkova

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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How the Soleimani Assassination Will Reverberate Throughout the Middle East

6 January 2020

Dr Sanam Vakil

Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Dr Renad Mansour

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme; Project Director, Iraq Initiative

Dr Lina Khatib

Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme
Regional experts examine how Iran benefits from the fallout of the killing, the implications for politics in Iraq and how Tehran might respond with its proxies in the region.

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Protesters hold up an image of Qassem Soleimani during a demonstration in Tehran on 3 January. Photo: Getty Images.

An unexpected bounty for Iran

Sanam Vakil

The assassination of Qassem Soleimani has been an unexpected bounty for the Islamic Republic at a time when Iran was balancing multiple economic, domestic and regional pressures stemming from the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.

Coming on the heels of anti-Iranian demonstrations in Iraq and Lebanon, and following Iran’s own November 2019 protests that resulted in a brutal government crackdown against its own people, the Soleimani killing has helped the Iranian government shift the narrative away from its perceived regional and domestic weaknesses to one of strength.  

The massive funeral scenes in multiple Iranian cities displaying unending waves of mourners chanting against the United States has provided the Islamic Republic with a unique opportunity to showcase its mobilizing potential. This potential is not limited to Iran but also extends to Iraq and Lebanon, where Tehran’s transnational summoning power has also been visible. The Iraqi parliamentary vote to end the American military presence is one early negative consequence. While the region awaits Iran’s response, further anti-American rallying cries will continue to reverberate.  

Domestically, Soleimani’s death and President Donald Trump’s continued provocations on Twitter, including threats to attack 52 Iranian cultural sites, are being used as a nationalist rallying cry. This sentiment should not be seen solely as Islamic or ideological, but rather an opportunity for the state to pivot to an Iranian-based nationalism that is more inclusive and empowering for much of the country’s disgruntled youth.

Iran’s notoriously divided political factions have also unified in the face of this crisis. With parliamentary elections looming in February and turnout previously expected to be low, the political establishment is likely to use this crisis to mobilize voters in favour of conservative candidates.  

How Tehran chooses to respond to Qassem Soleimani’s death will very much determine its ability to continue to control the narrative and manage its swell of domestic and regional support. For these benefits to continue to manifest, it is important for Tehran to balance the mix of public sympathy and international anxiety and not overplay its hand in its quest for revenge.

A reset for Iraqi politics

Renad Mansour

The US strike which killed Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis has grave implications for Iraq. The act jeopardizes Iraq’s recently stabilized security situation, and threatens to reshape the country’s political environment, moving backwards to the days of anti-Americanism and sect-based mobilization. If Baghdad loses relations with the US and other diplomatic representations, it risks turning into a pariah state. 

Over the past few years, and notably since October 2019, young Iraqis have taken to the streets demanding reform and the downfall of the political establishment, and its main external backer Iran. The political establishment, including political parties and militias close to Tehran, failed to appease or suppress these protests. Now, these political elites are using the deaths of Muhandis and Soleimani to (re)gain popularity from their own population, by drawing on the old tool of anti-Americanism. 

Following the attacks, Shia populist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr – who until recently had called for an end to Iranian and pro-Iranian militia influence in Iraq – has called to revamp the Mehdi Army that he led until 2008 and is calling for ‘Islamic resistance’ to the US. In seeking to regain control of his former movement, he is coming closer to former Shia foes.

For years, pro-Iranian groups attempted to push the US out of Iraq. Their calls often fell on deaf ears, as public opinion in Iraq did not consider the US as a threat and some even supported the US and international effort against ISIS. Following the attacks, however, anti-American voices have gained more ammunition.

A complete American withdrawal would not only have direct security implications but force other countries and organizations, from European states to NATO, to reconsider their positions and role.

Limited options for ‘revenge’ in the Levant

Lina Khatib

Iran’s use of Lebanon and Syria as spaces for revenge against the US is unlikely.

On Sunday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge for Soleimani’s death by singling out American soldiers as a target. However, Hezbollah’s options are limited. Lebanon is in the middle of wide-ranging protests against the country’s ruling political class, of which Nasrallah is a key figure.

Unlike in 2006, when Hezbollah’s military actions against Israel rallied the public around it, today there is no public appetite for dragging Lebanon into a war. Were Hezbollah to instigate one, it would incur public anger, if only for the economic repercussions that would exacerbate an already severe financial crisis in Lebanon. Lebanon also does not have any US military bases that could be a target for Hezbollah.

In theory, Hezbollah or other Iranian-backed groups could attack American bases in Syria. But these bases are staffed by multinational forces from the international anti-ISIS coalition. Attacking them would therefore put Iran in confrontation with other countries besides the US, which is not in Iran’s interest.

Attacking US soldiers in northeast Syria would also go against Kurdish interests because it would weaken the anti-ISIS coalition front of which Kurdish forces are part. It would, furthermore, anger Arab tribes in the area, opening up possibilities for ISIS to take advantage of public dissent to stage a comeback. Iran would then find itself fighting on several fronts at once, which it does not have the capacity to handle. 

More likely, Iran’s allies and proxies in the Levant are going to engage in strong rhetoric without taking hasty actions. When a key Hezbollah leader, Imad Mughniyeh, was assassinated in Damascus on 2008, there were strong words and public vows to seek revenge for his killing, but ultimately there was no response.