Kiran Gauthier writes: I was checking the web pages for Active Statistics and Regression and Other Stories and although I saw that Active Statistics is meant to accompany Regression and Other Stories, I was wondering how you would recommend reading … Continue reading →

Laboratory assays are central to much of biomedical research. My colleagues and I recently received a research grant to do better assays using Bayesian inference. Beyond the usual challenges of fitting nonlinear hierarchical models to real data that can sometimes … Continue reading →

This is Bob. We’re hiring It’s that time of year again and we’re hiring at all levels at the Center for Computational Mathematics (CCM) at Flatiron Institute (the in-house research arm of Simons Foundation). As they are listed, job ads … Continue reading →

tl;dr. Prediction markets give good forecasts because they attract “smart money” that will fix any gaps between current odds and best available information. The “smart money” is in turn motivated by the profits they can take from “dumb money” coming … Continue reading →

Bert Gunter points to this news article by Jeffrey Brainard that reports: Careful scientists know to acknowledge uncertainty in the findings and conclusions of their papers. But in one leading journal, the frequency of hedging words such as “might” and … Continue reading →

Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading →

From the team that brought you “good-looking parents are 36% more likely to have a baby daughter as their first child than a baby son” and “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually … Continue reading →

A colleague writes: Have you seen this article by Nate Cohn at the New York Times? A few things in it seemed weird. For one, he writes: The tendency for recall vote to overstate the winner of the last election … Continue reading →

Harrison Siegel pointed us to this project with Maximiliano Isi and Will Farr on gravitational-wave analysis. The compare models using predictive evaluation, in particular leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO), as discussed here and here. Siegel writes: We discuss our implementation of the … Continue reading →

(This post is by Charles) The title says it all: recordings of StanCon 2024 are now available on Stan’s youtube channel. We’re happy to make the content of StanCon 2024 accessible, even to those who couldn’t make it in person. … Continue reading →

Just in time for Halloween, we have a scarily effective implementation of Stan on the web, full of a veritable haunted house of delicious treats. Brian Ward, Jeff Soules, and Jeremy Magland write: Stan Playground is a new open-source, browser-based … Continue reading →

Shane Frederick writes: Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=??? Shane sends me this kind … Continue reading →

This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading →

There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming in every day, so it makes sense that forecasts change too. But they don’t change very much. Each new piece of information tells you only a little bit. … Continue reading →

Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler: Brian Ray has spent the last three decades as one of the nation’s top evangelists for home schooling. As a researcher, he has published studies purporting to show that these … Continue reading →

There are actually two questions here: 1. Should pollsters share all the information on their design, data collection, and analyses? 2. If yes on question 1 above, should this information be made public ahead of time, before the survey is … Continue reading →

A political science colleague wrote in: We are all abuzz about the Harris +3 in that Iowa Poll with its great track record. When I check the write up of this poll I see a reasonably detailed description of their … Continue reading →

There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading →

Continuing our election-eve counterprogramming, here’s another post with no political content. It comes from Constantine Frangakis, who writes: I think I have found something new and interesting. In studying the topic of “evidence” for my class, where the typical principles … Continue reading →

(Before going on, please read the last sentence of the P.P.S. below to put this post in context.) Blake McShane points us to this 1977 article, “Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics,” by Jerzy Neyman, the statistician who made fundamental contributions … Continue reading →

These are my quick thoughts. I’m sure I’ve missed a lot, so feel free to add your perspectives in comments. 1. The outcome In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote and lost in the electoral college. In 2020 … Continue reading →

I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading →

I came across this blog comment from a couple years ago saying that, whatever was going on in the head of Brian “Pizzagate” Wansink when he wrote up those papers with the fake data, in any case his papers papers … Continue reading →

Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading →

With news items such How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election and Prediction markets got Trump’s victory right; Betting markets predicted a Trump victory, while traditional polls were showing a tossup, prediction markets are having their coming-out party. Before … Continue reading →

This post is by Lizzie. I hope you like the cats photo from this summer. I do. I am looking for help. I decided to change my term course (12-14 weeks-long) on `introduction to Bayesian modeling with some hierarchical modeling’ … Continue reading →

I just learned about this paper from 2020, Specification curve analysis, by Uri Simonsohn, Joseph Simmons, and Leif Nelson: Empirical results hinge on analytical decisions that are defensible, arbitrary and motivated. These decisions probably introduce bias (towards the narrative put … Continue reading →

Quite often we hear in the news the lament that “if only we would have enough vaccine!”. In principal that is true, but more the theoretical claim, that only if we would have 170 Mio doses, everybody in Germany could get the two shots … Fact is, that being Germans and doing everything as thorough […]

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I love October. Crisp mornings and hot cider help me welcome autumn. Change is in the air—you can feel it. One of my very favorite things about October...

Christian author, speaker, and disability advocate Joni Eareckson Tada was honored with the Pillar Award for History by the Museum of the Bible...

Major Ian Thomas of The Torchbearers is a powerful preacher but a very humble man. A friend of mine once approached him after he preached...

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The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more

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After years of watching clients struggle with clunky, one-size-fits-all designs, we’ve learned that a great website needs to fit perfectly into any screen it meets, no matter how great the design is. Many see responsive design as a technical maze, but in this post, we’ll try to guide you through some of the challenges (and […]

The post Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.

Our Divi Black Friday Sale isn’t just about the best discounts of the year — it’s about unlocking exclusive rewards. This year, we’re giving away over 11,000 premium products valued at over $864,000. You could walk away with up to 9 free prizes just by participating. In this post, we’ll give you a sneak peek […]

The post ???? $864,000+ Black Friday Prize Reveal! (9 Free Prizes Per Person) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.

Is your website not performing well on mobile devices? Poor layout or slow loading times can cause users to leave your site before they even engage with your content. In today’s mobile-first world, a responsive website is no longer just an option—it’s a necessity. Whether you’re starting fresh or improving an existing website, a responsive […]

The post How to Make a Responsive Website in 2024 (No Coding) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.

Managing multiple WordPress websites can be difficult, especially as a freelancer or budding web agency. Keeping track of updates, ensuring security, and optimizing performance for each site can be time-consuming. Additionally, when managing dozens or even hundreds of websites, you’re much more prone to making errors or skipping crucial updates. This is where a site […]

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The Divi 5 Public Alpha is available for testing. As we progress towards the final release, we’ll update Divi 5 every two weeks, appearing as a standard update in your WordPress dashboard. If you use Divi 5, you’ll notice an update notification for Public Alpha Version 3 today. Thanks to everyone who has reported bugs so […]

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A New York appellate court rejected an insurance carrier’s challenge to its liability for injuries two workers suffered while being transported in a van to a jobsite. Case: Matter of Reyes Bonilla…

A New York appellate court upheld a finding that a police officer’s retirement was voluntary and not caused by his prior duty-related injuries. Case: Matter of Carroll v. Nassau County Police Department, No.

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted partial summary judgment on his Labor Law claims but split on whether a subcontractor on the project…

The New York Daily News reports that union officials are claiming that 9/11 first responders have not received workers’ compensation benefits since the CrowdStrike outage last week. Direct deposit payments ranging…

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said it has significantly reduced turnaround times in resolving billing disputes between health care providers and payers. The board said it has reduced the…

A New York appellate court ruled that a dispute between former newspaper delivery persons and the successor-in-interest to the newspaper for alleged sexual abuse should not have been referred to…