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Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?

This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading




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A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote

There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming in every day, so it makes sense that forecasts change too. But they don’t change very much. Each new piece of information tells you only a little bit. … Continue reading




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Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error

A political science colleague wrote in: We are all abuzz about the Harris +3 in that Iowa Poll with its great track record. When I check the write up of this poll I see a reasonably detailed description of their … Continue reading




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What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades)

There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading




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That day in 1977 when Jerzy Neyman committed the methodological attribution fallacy.

(Before going on, please read the last sentence of the P.P.S. below to put this post in context.) Blake McShane points us to this 1977 article, “Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics,” by Jerzy Neyman, the statistician who made fundamental contributions … Continue reading




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Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.”

I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading




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Two spans of the bridge of inference

This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics … Continue reading




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If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____.

This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be … Continue reading




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Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump

Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading




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Meta-analysis with a single study

Erik van Zwet, Witold Więcek, and I write: Effect sizes typically vary among studies of the same intervention. In a random effects meta-analysis, this variation is explicitly taken into account. However, when we have only one study, the heterogeneity remains … Continue reading




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Be the Change: Celebrating Down Syndrome Awareness Month

I love October. Crisp mornings and hot cider help me welcome autumn. Change is in the air—you can feel it. One of my very favorite things about October...




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Give Yourself Away

I love books, including some old classics by Andrew Murray and Oswald Chambers. As with anything that’s a favorite, I find it hard to let certain...




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Christ Jesus Came into the World to Save Sinners

I was completely at a loss when, in 1980, I was asked to create a completely unique and original work of art for a Billy Graham...




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Consolidation thesis – rawgraphs in the academy

RAWGraphs is used in many academic resources. In many of... more




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Visualizing genetic networks of Gustave Roud’s literary works

The project provides a visual representation of the creative process... more




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Recap of the “Gephi Week” at SciencePo: inquiring the community detection algorithm of Gephi

The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more




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Wiki????Monuments

data.wikilovesmonuments.it is a visualization platform designed for Wikimedia Italia. The... more




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Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important?

After years of watching clients struggle with clunky, one-size-fits-all designs, we’ve learned that a great website needs to fit perfectly into any screen it meets, no matter how great the design is. Many see responsive design as a technical maze, but in this post, we’ll try to guide you through some of the challenges (and […]

The post Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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New Starter Site for Financial Advisors (Quick Install)

Divi empowers you to build the best websites possible, and now, Divi Quick Sites takes website creation to a whole new level. This revolutionary tool lets anyone, regardless of skill level, generate a complete website in under two minutes! Divi Quick Sites provides everything you need to launch your dream website instantly. You can choose […]

The post New Starter Site for Financial Advisors (Quick Install) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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How to Customize Your WooCommerce Cart Page for More Sales!

The average abandoned cart rate is 70%. That’s every seven out of ten of your store customers who set up their cart don’t complete their purchase—your WooCommerce cart page is leaking money! You can fix this by customizing it. Adding your brand, upsell offers, discount coupons, and trust-building elements are great ways to make customers […]

The post How to Customize Your WooCommerce Cart Page for More Sales! appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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How to Make a Responsive Website in 2024 (No Coding)

Is your website not performing well on mobile devices? Poor layout or slow loading times can cause users to leave your site before they even engage with your content. In today’s mobile-first world, a responsive website is no longer just an option—it’s a necessity. Whether you’re starting fresh or improving an existing website, a responsive […]

The post How to Make a Responsive Website in 2024 (No Coding) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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Divi Dash vs Competitors: Which One’s Best For WordPress Management?

Managing multiple WordPress websites can be difficult, especially as a freelancer or budding web agency. Keeping track of updates, ensuring security, and optimizing performance for each site can be time-consuming. Additionally, when managing dozens or even hundreds of websites, you’re much more prone to making errors or skipping crucial updates. This is where a site […]

The post Divi Dash vs Competitors: Which One’s Best For WordPress Management? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install)

Divi empowers you to build the best websites possible, and now, Divi Quick Sites takes website creation to a whole new level. This revolutionary tool lets anyone, regardless of skill level, generate a complete website in under two minutes! Divi Quick Sites provides everything you need to launch your dream website instantly. You can choose […]

The post New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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Worker Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim; Court Splits on Judgment for Subcontractor

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted partial summary judgment on his Labor Law claims but split on whether a subcontractor on the project…




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Worker Gets Summary Judgment for Ladder Fall Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for his fall from an unsecured ladder. Case: Rivera v. 712…




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Homeowner's Company Not Liable for Worker's Injuries

A New York appellate court ruled that a company partially owned by an individual serving as the general contractor on a construction project at his private residence was not liable for…




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Worker Should Have Been Denied Leave to Add Defendant to Labor Law Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been denied permission to amend his complaint to add a new defendant to his Labor Law action. Case: Rowe v.




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Report: Union Says CrowdStrike Outage Halted Payments to 9/11 Responders

The New York Daily News reports that union officials are claiming that 9/11 first responders have not received workers’ compensation benefits since the CrowdStrike outage last week. Direct deposit payments ranging…




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WCB Reports Faster Resolution of Medical Billing Disputes

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said it has significantly reduced turnaround times in resolving billing disputes between health care providers and payers. The board said it has reduced the…




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WCB to Index More Claims Starting in September

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board announced that it will expand in September the number of claims that it indexes. The WCB said the majority of claims assembled on or…




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Employer Liable for Comp Gets Dismissal of Worker's Civil Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that an employer was entitled to the dismissal of an injured worker’s civil claims against it after it was held liable for workers’ compensation…




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Court: Dispute Over Alleged Sexual Abuse Shouldn't Have Gone to WCB

A New York appellate court ruled that a dispute between former newspaper delivery persons and the successor-in-interest to the newspaper for alleged sexual abuse should not have been referred to…




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Court Overturns Summary Judgment for Labor Law Defendants on Indemnification Claims

A New York appellate court ruled that some defendants in a Labor Law action were not entitled to summary judgment on their indemnification claims against an injured plaintiff’s employer. Case: Lamarr v.




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WCB to Require Electronic Submission of CMS-1500 Form

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said part of its ongoing modernization initiatives will require health care providers to contract with an electronic submission partner to submit the CMS-1500…




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Worker Should Have Been Granted Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for falling from a scaffold. Case: Amaro v. New York City…




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Worker Gets Partial Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim for Bridge Accident

A New York appellate court ruled that an injured worker should have been granted partial summary judgment on his Labor Law claims for a bridge construction accident. Case: Chiarella v. New…




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Former Postal Worker Pleads Guilty to Comp Fraud

A former U.S. Postal Service employee pleaded guilty to four counts of making false statements to receive federal workers’ compensation benefits, the U.S. Justice Department announced. Christopher Gleason, 36, of Auburn,…




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WCB Opens Registration for 2024 Conference

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board opened registration for its 2024  conference, set for Oct. 18 in Albany. Clarissa Rodriguez The full-day program will feature a state-of-the-system report from WCB Chair…




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Worker Not Entitled to File Late Claim for Alleged Crane Accident Injuries

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was properly denied leave to file a late notice of claim. Case: Matter of Polak v. MTA Long Island Railroad, Nos. 2022-00039…




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Property Owners, Architect Not Liable for Labor Law Claims

A New York appellate court ruled that the owners of a private residence and their architect were entitled to summary judgment dismissing the Labor Law and negligence claims against them…




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Carrier Has Duty to Cover Property Owner for Labor Law Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that an insurance company had a duty to provide coverage to a property owner defending against a Labor Law claim. Case: Arch Specialty Insurance Co.




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Court: Property Owner Should Have Been Granted Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a property owner should have been granted summary judgment dismissing an injured worker’s claims against it. Case: Miranda v. 1320 Entertainment Inc., No. 2022-09472,…




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Worker Who Fell From Scaffold Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim

A New York appellate court upheld a grant of summary judgment for a worker who fell from a scaffold. Case: Ramirez v. Pace University, No. 2022-04811, 08/28/2024, published. Facts: Jonathan Ramirez allegedly fell from…




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No Summary Judgment for Defendant; Court Lets Worker Amend Complaint

A New York appellate court upheld a denial of summary judgment to a Labor Law defendant and ruled that the worker was entitled to amend his complaint to add more…




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Court: Worker Should Have Been Allowed to File Late Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted leave to belatedly file a claim for injuries allegedly received while working on a school construction project. Case:…




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Worker Not Entitled to Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claims

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was not entitled to summary judgment on his Labor Law claims for an alleged fall from a ladder. Case: Injai v. Circle F…




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Worker Not Entitled to Relief From Adverse Summary Judgment

A New York appellate court ruled that an injured worker could not obtain relief from an adverse grant of summary judgment. Case: Benegas v. Ardsley Country Club Inc., Nos. 2020-04106 and…




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Labor Law Defendants Get Summary Dismissal of Claim

A New York appellate court upheld summary judgment for the defendants in a Labor Law case involving a worker’s fall from the roof of a home undergoing renovations. Case: Argueta v…




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Employer of Allegedly Injured Worker Gets Dismissal of Third-Party Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a third-party suit against an allegedly injured worker’s employer should have been summarily dismissed. Case: Hernandez v. Opera Owners Inc., No. 32526/19, 09/24/2024, published. Facts:…




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Worker Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim for Slip and Fall

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was properly granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for a workplace slip-and-fall injury. Case: Oliveira v. Top Shelf Electric Corp., No.