w Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2024 16:21:44 +0000 This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading → Full Article Decision Analysis Miscellaneous Science Miscellaneous Statistics Statistical Computing
w A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sat, 02 Nov 2024 20:46:56 +0000 There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming in every day, so it makes sense that forecasts change too. But they don’t change very much. Each new piece of information tells you only a little bit. … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Political Science
w Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 01:25:52 +0000 A political science colleague wrote in: We are all abuzz about the Harris +3 in that Iowa Poll with its great track record. When I check the write up of this poll I see a reasonably detailed description of their … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Political Science
w What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades) By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 Nov 2024 02:58:23 +0000 There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
w That day in 1977 when Jerzy Neyman committed the methodological attribution fallacy. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2024 14:15:44 +0000 (Before going on, please read the last sentence of the P.P.S. below to put this post in context.) Blake McShane points us to this 1977 article, “Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics,” by Jerzy Neyman, the statistician who made fundamental contributions … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Zombies
w Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.” By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:26:28 +0000 I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Sociology Zombies
w Two spans of the bridge of inference By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 17:22:17 +0000 This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Miscellaneous Statistics Sociology
w If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 18:25:37 +0000 This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be … Continue reading → Full Article Sports sports tennis
w Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sat, 09 Nov 2024 14:11:07 +0000 Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Political Science Sociology
w Meta-analysis with a single study By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 11 Nov 2024 14:21:17 +0000 Erik van Zwet, Witold Więcek, and I write: Effect sizes typically vary among studies of the same intervention. In a random effects meta-analysis, this variation is explicitly taken into account. However, when we have only one study, the heterogeneity remains … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Multilevel Modeling Public Health
w Be the Change: Celebrating Down Syndrome Awareness Month By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Thu, 31 Oct 2024 07:00:00 +0000 I love October. Crisp mornings and hot cider help me welcome autumn. Change is in the air—you can feel it. One of my very favorite things about October... Full Article Advocacy Hope & Inspiration Inspiration Stories
w Give Yourself Away By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Sat, 09 Nov 2024 08:00:00 +0000 I love books, including some old classics by Andrew Murray and Oswald Chambers. As with anything that’s a favorite, I find it hard to let certain... Full Article Daily Devotional daily devotional devotional More Precious Than Silver Devotional
w Christ Jesus Came into the World to Save Sinners By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 08:00:00 +0000 I was completely at a loss when, in 1980, I was asked to create a completely unique and original work of art for a Billy Graham... Full Article From Our Founder Joni's Artwork Joni's Posts
w Consolidation thesis – rawgraphs in the academy By densitydesign.org Published On :: Wed, 06 Apr 2022 10:20:12 +0000 RAWGraphs is used in many academic resources. In many of... more Full Article
w Visualizing genetic networks of Gustave Roud’s literary works By densitydesign.org Published On :: Thu, 07 Apr 2022 14:25:42 +0000 The project provides a visual representation of the creative process... more Full Article
w Recap of the “Gephi Week” at SciencePo: inquiring the community detection algorithm of Gephi By densitydesign.org Published On :: Wed, 07 Sep 2022 07:33:23 +0000 The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more Full Article Design Reading
w Wiki????Monuments By densitydesign.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Oct 2022 21:10:53 +0000 data.wikilovesmonuments.it is a visualization platform designed for Wikimedia Italia. The... more Full Article
w Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important? By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:00:00 +0000 After years of watching clients struggle with clunky, one-size-fits-all designs, we’ve learned that a great website needs to fit perfectly into any screen it meets, no matter how great the design is. Many see responsive design as a technical maze, but in this post, we’ll try to guide you through some of the challenges (and […] The post Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Design Product Guides design design tips Responsive Design web design
w New Starter Site for Financial Advisors (Quick Install) By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2024 16:00:00 +0000 Divi empowers you to build the best websites possible, and now, Divi Quick Sites takes website creation to a whole new level. This revolutionary tool lets anyone, regardless of skill level, generate a complete website in under two minutes! Divi Quick Sites provides everything you need to launch your dream website instantly. You can choose […] The post New Starter Site for Financial Advisors (Quick Install) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Divi Resources Divi freebie Divi Layout Pack Divi Starter Site divi theme builder pack
w How to Customize Your WooCommerce Cart Page for More Sales! By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 12:00:00 +0000 The average abandoned cart rate is 70%. That’s every seven out of ten of your store customers who set up their cart don’t complete their purchase—your WooCommerce cart page is leaking money! You can fix this by customizing it. Adding your brand, upsell offers, discount coupons, and trust-building elements are great ways to make customers […] The post How to Customize Your WooCommerce Cart Page for More Sales! appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Product Guides WordPress
w How to Make a Responsive Website in 2024 (No Coding) By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Sat, 09 Nov 2024 12:00:00 +0000 Is your website not performing well on mobile devices? Poor layout or slow loading times can cause users to leave your site before they even engage with your content. In today’s mobile-first world, a responsive website is no longer just an option—it’s a necessity. Whether you’re starting fresh or improving an existing website, a responsive […] The post How to Make a Responsive Website in 2024 (No Coding) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Product Reviews WordPress
w Divi Dash vs Competitors: Which One’s Best For WordPress Management? By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Sun, 10 Nov 2024 12:00:12 +0000 Managing multiple WordPress websites can be difficult, especially as a freelancer or budding web agency. Keeping track of updates, ensuring security, and optimizing performance for each site can be time-consuming. Additionally, when managing dozens or even hundreds of websites, you’re much more prone to making errors or skipping crucial updates. This is where a site […] The post Divi Dash vs Competitors: Which One’s Best For WordPress Management? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Product Guides WordPress Divi Dash Monitoring Tools Site Management wordpress WordPress Website Management
w New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install) By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 16:00:53 +0000 Divi empowers you to build the best websites possible, and now, Divi Quick Sites takes website creation to a whole new level. This revolutionary tool lets anyone, regardless of skill level, generate a complete website in under two minutes! Divi Quick Sites provides everything you need to launch your dream website instantly. You can choose […] The post New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Divi Resources Divi freebie Divi Layout Pack Divi Starter Site divi theme builder pack
w Worker Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim; Court Splits on Judgment for Subcontractor By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted partial summary judgment on his Labor Law claims but split on whether a subcontractor on the project… Full Article
w Worker Gets Summary Judgment for Ladder Fall Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 11 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for his fall from an unsecured ladder. Case: Rivera v. 712… Full Article
w Homeowner's Company Not Liable for Worker's Injuries By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a company partially owned by an individual serving as the general contractor on a construction project at his private residence was not liable for… Full Article
w Worker Should Have Been Denied Leave to Add Defendant to Labor Law Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been denied permission to amend his complaint to add a new defendant to his Labor Law action. Case: Rowe v. Full Article
w Report: Union Says CrowdStrike Outage Halted Payments to 9/11 Responders By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The New York Daily News reports that union officials are claiming that 9/11 first responders have not received workers’ compensation benefits since the CrowdStrike outage last week. Direct deposit payments ranging… Full Article
w WCB Reports Faster Resolution of Medical Billing Disputes By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Fri, 26 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said it has significantly reduced turnaround times in resolving billing disputes between health care providers and payers. The board said it has reduced the… Full Article
w WCB to Index More Claims Starting in September By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 30 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board announced that it will expand in September the number of claims that it indexes. The WCB said the majority of claims assembled on or… Full Article
w Employer Liable for Comp Gets Dismissal of Worker's Civil Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 30 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that an employer was entitled to the dismissal of an injured worker’s civil claims against it after it was held liable for workers’ compensation… Full Article
w Court: Dispute Over Alleged Sexual Abuse Shouldn't Have Gone to WCB By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Wed, 31 Jul 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a dispute between former newspaper delivery persons and the successor-in-interest to the newspaper for alleged sexual abuse should not have been referred to… Full Article
w Court Overturns Summary Judgment for Labor Law Defendants on Indemnification Claims By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 01 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that some defendants in a Labor Law action were not entitled to summary judgment on their indemnification claims against an injured plaintiff’s employer. Case: Lamarr v. Full Article
w WCB to Require Electronic Submission of CMS-1500 Form By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 08 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said part of its ongoing modernization initiatives will require health care providers to contract with an electronic submission partner to submit the CMS-1500… Full Article
w Worker Should Have Been Granted Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for falling from a scaffold. Case: Amaro v. New York City… Full Article
w Worker Gets Partial Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim for Bridge Accident By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 15 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that an injured worker should have been granted partial summary judgment on his Labor Law claims for a bridge construction accident. Case: Chiarella v. New… Full Article
w Former Postal Worker Pleads Guilty to Comp Fraud By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Fri, 16 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A former U.S. Postal Service employee pleaded guilty to four counts of making false statements to receive federal workers’ compensation benefits, the U.S. Justice Department announced. Christopher Gleason, 36, of Auburn,… Full Article
w WCB Opens Registration for 2024 Conference By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 20 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board opened registration for its 2024 conference, set for Oct. 18 in Albany. Clarissa Rodriguez The full-day program will feature a state-of-the-system report from WCB Chair… Full Article
w Worker Not Entitled to File Late Claim for Alleged Crane Accident Injuries By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 20 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was properly denied leave to file a late notice of claim. Case: Matter of Polak v. MTA Long Island Railroad, Nos. 2022-00039… Full Article
w Property Owners, Architect Not Liable for Labor Law Claims By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that the owners of a private residence and their architect were entitled to summary judgment dismissing the Labor Law and negligence claims against them… Full Article
w Carrier Has Duty to Cover Property Owner for Labor Law Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Mon, 09 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that an insurance company had a duty to provide coverage to a property owner defending against a Labor Law claim. Case: Arch Specialty Insurance Co. Full Article
w Court: Property Owner Should Have Been Granted Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 10 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a property owner should have been granted summary judgment dismissing an injured worker’s claims against it. Case: Miranda v. 1320 Entertainment Inc., No. 2022-09472,… Full Article
w Worker Who Fell From Scaffold Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Wed, 11 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court upheld a grant of summary judgment for a worker who fell from a scaffold. Case: Ramirez v. Pace University, No. 2022-04811, 08/28/2024, published. Facts: Jonathan Ramirez allegedly fell from… Full Article
w No Summary Judgment for Defendant; Court Lets Worker Amend Complaint By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Mon, 23 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court upheld a denial of summary judgment to a Labor Law defendant and ruled that the worker was entitled to amend his complaint to add more… Full Article
w Court: Worker Should Have Been Allowed to File Late Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 24 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker should have been granted leave to belatedly file a claim for injuries allegedly received while working on a school construction project. Case:… Full Article
w Worker Not Entitled to Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claims By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Wed, 25 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was not entitled to summary judgment on his Labor Law claims for an alleged fall from a ladder. Case: Injai v. Circle F… Full Article
w Worker Not Entitled to Relief From Adverse Summary Judgment By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 26 Sep 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that an injured worker could not obtain relief from an adverse grant of summary judgment. Case: Benegas v. Ardsley Country Club Inc., Nos. 2020-04106 and… Full Article
w Labor Law Defendants Get Summary Dismissal of Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Thu, 03 Oct 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court upheld summary judgment for the defendants in a Labor Law case involving a worker’s fall from the roof of a home undergoing renovations. Case: Argueta v… Full Article
w Employer of Allegedly Injured Worker Gets Dismissal of Third-Party Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Mon, 07 Oct 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a third-party suit against an allegedly injured worker’s employer should have been summarily dismissed. Case: Hernandez v. Opera Owners Inc., No. 32526/19, 09/24/2024, published. Facts:… Full Article
w Worker Gets Summary Judgment on Labor Law Claim for Slip and Fall By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 08 Oct 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A New York appellate court ruled that a worker was properly granted summary judgment on his Labor Law claim for a workplace slip-and-fall injury. Case: Oliveira v. Top Shelf Electric Corp., No. Full Article