Do you have a set of values that guide your teaching and the way you've set up your studio? Here are some ideas to get you started.

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

• holding at 3.3% y/y
• would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

• "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

With the surging USD after Trump's win the yuan is just one of many weaker currencies:

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous close was 7.2150

The rate today at 7.1927 is weakest since September 12 of 2023.

PBOC injects 125bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 18bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 107bn yuan

*-*-

/*/*

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024:

10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT

• Fed's Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is 'payments')

10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech

2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT

• Fed's Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter)

5:00 PM ET / 2200 GMT

• Fed's Harker (Philadelphia Fed President, non-voter) speech

5:30 PM ET / 2230 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speaks again

• The pace of the moves depends on the data
• We are data dependent but not data point dependent
• Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
• If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
• We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
• The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
• Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
• Protectionism by definition is inflationary

The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.

• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says:

• Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.
• US economy looks pretty good
• Labor market is resilient.
• From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.
• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.
• Feds focus may turn to upside inflation risks or to downside employment risks, depending on how economy develops.

The market is pricing a 65% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December. That is down over the last week or so (it was in the high 70%s last week).

US yields are higher but off their highest levels:

• 2-year 4.314%, +6.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.269%, +7.6 basis points
• 10-year 4.370%, +6.3 basis points
• 30 year 4.516%, +3.7 basis points

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous reference rate was 7.2355.

The setting at 7.1991, about 300-odd points lower than the modelled estimate is indicative of the PBoC pushing back against yuan weakness. AUD/USD has popped a little on the setting of a stronger than expected yuan.

PBOC injects 233bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 17bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 216bn yuan

/*/*

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines involving the US election in the meantime. However, with the dollar under pressure, there is still a chance of European traders following through on the earlier price action. So, that's something to be wary about.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6600 level. The expiries are pretty huge and sits near the 200-hour moving average of 0.6599 currently. But the pair is largely driven by dollar dynamics to start the week, with the greenback opening with a gap down on US election sentiment. That is still the key driver to watch in the session(s) ahead but just note of the 200-day moving average at 0.6627 for the pair. That will be the bigger key level to watch on the charts for now.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

Besides that, market sentiment will be largely driven by election headlines over the next few sessions more so than anything else.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As such, I wouldn't place much emphasis on the large one at 1.0725 currently for EUR/USD.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves, in particular the dollar. For now though, the greenback is seeing a slight pullback to yesterday's gains. So, the ones at 1.0775 could help to just keep a lid on things until we get to US trading at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at the moment. That being said, they could play a role in keeping price action more boxed in until we get to US trading again later.

There aren't any key risk events on the calendar to really impact EUR/USD sentiment. So, it's all about how the post-election flows will settle as we look towards the end of the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to start the week, there might not be too much appetite for traders to chase any outsized moves.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don't know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher.

In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the swing lows from June between 1.0665 to 1.06705. That is below the low from last week at 1.06819. Staying below that area keeps the sellers in control. Absent a move above those levels and the buyers are not winning. ON the downside, the next support comes in at 2024 lows between 1.0600 to 1.06097.

USDJPY: The USDJPY has bounced higher and pushed to the 153.88 level. That level has helped to slow the run higher today. Recall from last week, the price did move above that level and ran to a high of 154.70 on the dollar buying after the Election before the corrective move lower (the price bottomed at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). So the pair is at a key technical level between support at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and the high from last week at 154.70.

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has seen more up-and-down momentum over the last few weeks of trading. It is trading near the low of that up and down range with 1.2832 to 1.2872 the swing area to get to and through to increase the bearish bias. On the topside gettting back above the low from 3 weeks ago comes in at 1.29065. That would need to be broken to give the buyers more confidence.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish.

The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum with the price moving to and through the 50% midpoint of the move down from the Mqy 1 high. That level comes in at 0.87986 (near natural resistance at 0.8800).

The price is in trading above and below that level the last four or so hours of trading with a high price of 0.8804. Also in play on the topside is its 200-day moving average at 0.8817 and a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.88251. Get above those levels would open the door for more upside momentum.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out near the 50% midpoint and below the 200-day moving average. That is natural estranged can defined and limited risk against the technical levels. However, the price were to move above the 200-day moving average, the seller leaning now, should look to cover and push the price higher.

---------------------------------

USDCHF Summary

The USDCHF continues its upward trend, testing the 50% target level at 0.87986.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 0.8817 (200-day MA)

• 0.88187-0.8825 (swing area)

Support

• 0.8772-0.87763 (last week's highs)

Outlook:

• Breaking above 0.88187-0.8825 opens door for more upside momentum.

• Moving below 0.8772-0.87763 gives sellers short-term advantage.

• Absent a breakdown, buyers remain in control, targeting new highs since July 31.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to consolidate above the key 152.00 support zone maintaining a bullish bias. If we were to get another pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in once again to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 148.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The price recently bounced near the trendline and we can expect the buyers to keep leaning on it, while the sellers will look for a break lower to gain more conviction for a bigger correction to the downside.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 153.40 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the zone to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs:

EUR/USD Summary

The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump.

Key Points:

• Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the lows from back in June.

• Staying below the lows from June kept the sellers in control

• Reached a low of 1.0606, testing April's swing lows and the year's lows (since October 2023). A move below the 1.0600 increases the bearish bias.

• Buyers may lean against the low as risk can be defined and limited against the level with stops on a break below.

-------------------------------------------

USD/JPY Summary

The USD/JPY exhibited volatility, with potential bullish signals.

Key Points:

1. Rose yesterday, then stalled between 153.59-153.88 (swing area).

2. Found support at 153.397 (61.8% of July's move down).

3. Broke above 153.88 (bullish signal).

4. Next targets: 154.54-155.09.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Stay above 153.88, targeting 154.54-155.09.

Bearish Scenario

Move below 153.397 increases short-term bearish bias.

--------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD Summary

The GBP/USD fell, breaking below two-week lows and the 200-day MA.

Key Points:

1. Broke below last week's low (1.28329) and 200-day MA (1.28178).

2. Reached 1.27915, then bounced.

3. Traded above and below 200-day MA.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.28329, 1.2844, and 1.2866 (50% of April's move) indicates buyer strength.

Bearish Scenario

Stay below 1.28329 and 1.2844 maintains seller confidence; breaking below 200-day MA again confirms bearish trend.

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977.

The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated back down toward the close from yesterday's trade where buyers have stalled the fall.

On the downside, the next major target comes against the rising 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.3908 and 1.3911. It would take a move below that area to increase the bearish bias with the 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart the next downside target at 1.38868.

On the top side, getting back above 1.3945 and 1.3958 would have traders looking again toward the 2022 high at 1.3977. Get above that level opens the door for further upside potential.

----------------------------------------------

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD rose in the Asian session, approaching 2022 highs.

Key Points:

1. Broke above recent highs (1.3945-1.3958).

2. Reached 1.39664, shy of 2022 high (1.3977).

3. Buyers turned sellers, and the price fell.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.3945, 1.3958, and 1.3977 confirms further upside.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 1.3908-1.3911 (100/200-hour MA) and 1.38868 (100-bar MA) increases bearish bias.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.3945, 1.3958, 1.3977

• Support: 1.3908, 1.3911, 1.38868

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m diving into Natural Gas Futures (NG), which are trading around 2.92 as of yesterday's close. This analysis will be relevant to those of you looking at CFDs, futures themselves, or stocks related to natural gas. Here’s a detailed view of my approach:

Natural Gas Futures Overview

Currently, we’re seeing Natural Gas Futures in a significant channel on the weekly time frame. There’s potential for a bullish breakout from a large bull flag formation, highlighted by the recent piercing through the upper edge of this channel. However, we’re still in uncertain territory—it’s possible the price may reverse back down, retesting the flag before making any decisive move.

Dip Buying Extreme Targeting

I’m looking closely at the potential for an extreme dip buying opportunity in natural gas. When I say “extreme dip buying,” I’m talking about setting up a longer-term, strategic plan that goes beyond typical levels. Instead of just waiting for an undefined "deep drop," I'm identifying specific price levels that could offer remarkable buying opportunities if the market hits them.

Long-Term Support Levels to Watch

Here’s what I'm focusing on for a deeper dip buy:

1. 1.612 (Low of 2016) – This level may present an attractive medium-term long position, suitable for swing trades.
2. 1.44 (Low of 2020) – Similar to 1.612, this level could offer a profitable swing opportunity, though not necessarily for a prolonged hold.

While these are appealing points for shorter-term trades, I recommend partial profit-taking here to mitigate risk if the price reverses sharply.

Generational Low Opportunity at 1.25

For the patient, long-term investors, my primary area of interest lies around 1.25—the historic low from 1995, nearly 30 years ago. This level represents a “generational low,” providing a triple layer of support:

• The lower bound of the channel.
• The major, longer-term channel trendline.
• The historic 1.25 support level from 1995.

If natural gas reaches this area, it could be a highly attractive long-term buy. I suggest setting several buy orders around 1.25 to capture a position here and holding for substantial potential upside. Patience will be key—having some trading capital reserved for this area could be a game-changing strategy.

The Ultimate Extreme at 1.04

If something drastic occurs and the price reaches 1.04, the all-time low from the 1990s, it would represent a multi-generational low. This level would likely attract significant buying interest from funds, institutions, and individual investors. Similar to the parity level we saw with EUR/USD, this psychological round number could spur major accumulation and serve as an unparalleled buying opportunity.

Summary and Final Thoughts on Natural Gas and Exteme Dip Buying

In summary:

• Stay Patient: This strategy involves waiting for rare, extreme dip-buying levels.
• Allocate Capital Strategically: Save some ammunition for these lower levels, where the upside potential is considerable.
• Monitor Support Levels Closely: Levels like 1.25 and 1.04 represent deeply discounted entry points that could yield long-term gains.

Follow ForexLive.com for additional insights for investors and traders, and let’s keep an eye on these setups. Extreme opportunities don’t come often, so be prepared and thank me later!

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers.

The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making a play.

The swing high going back to July 30 came in at 155.21, and that becomes the next key target on the topside for the pair.

The high yield close for the 10-year note last week reached 4.433%. The current yield is currently at 4.4315%, up 12.3 basis points. A close above would be the highest close going back to July 1, 2024 when the close came in at 4.465%.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum.

ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk would be the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.87986. I would think that short term traders seeing a move above the 50% and the 200 day MA would want to see both those technical levels remain broken.

If not, there could be some disappointment on the failed break and more downside corrective probing.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

China-based Construction Machinery and Equipment (CME) with the data from earlier this week. In October China's excavator sales are estimated to have reached 16,791 units:

• that's +15.1% y/y

More notably, excavator sales in the Chinese domestic market are estimated at 8,266 units

• +21.6% y/y
• Excavator sales to the export market +9.46% y/y

For the January-October 2024 period this year, China's excavator sales are estimated to have increased by 0.47 percent year on year

• domestic market +9.8% y/y
• export market -7.41% y/y

Is this a sign of green shoots for the economy in China?

There has been plenty of stimulus announcements, that the market has been disappointed with. But, are thye having an impact?

Barclays has issued a note suggesting that the re-election of Trump is unlikely to significantly impact oil market fundamentals in the near term.

The bank believes that current market dynamics are relatively stable and does not foresee major shifts tied to potential changes in U.S. leadership.

Barclays is recommending a long position on December 2025 Brent call spreads. The bank notes that volatility has recently decreased, and it perceives market sentiment as overly focused on downside risks, or the "left tail." In contrast, Barclays believes the risks are more balanced, especially in light of recent improvements in oil market fundamentals and the possibility of a more confrontational geopolitical landscape.

All eyes will be on the United States on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, as the world awaits the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With the countdown clock to the 2024 US elections beginning to tick down towards polling day, markets are starting to brace themselves for what is yet to come.

Key Volatility Factors

The sharp differences between Harris' and Trump's policy platforms are creating an atmosphere of market volatility, as investors may be unsure which sectors stand to be affected by the outcome of this neck-and-neck race.

Beyond the presidency, control of Congress—both the House and Senate—plays a crucial role in determining policy outcomes and potential market reactions. Historically, markets have trended upward across presidential terms, yet analysts suggest that a divided government, where different parties control the presidency and Congress, may be optimal for market stability.

Understanding underlying market dynamics is crucial for those entering the online trading arena, and as the U.S. election on 5 November approaches, market volatility is reaching new heights, creating both risks and opportunities for traders. To help navigate this turbulent landscape, Plus500 offers a wealth of resources through its Trading Academy, including US election webinars, tutorials, eBooks, analysis, and up-to-date news articles.

These tools equip traders with the knowledge to better understand market dynamics and the potential impact of political developments on their trading strategies. In this uncertain environment, well-informed traders who grasp key concepts and trends might be better-placed to adapt to sudden price movements that could arise from unexpected election outcomes, although results are never guaranteed with trading.

The Economic Issues Driving the 2024 Election

The 2024 U.S. elections bring critical economic issues to the fore, with tax, trade, and energy policies as central themes. Donald Trump has proposed further corporate tax cuts to stimulate growth, particularly in manufacturing, energy, and technology, which may boost equity markets in the short term, but could increase federal deficits. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, supports targeted tax incentives for green sectors while proposing higher corporate taxes for social initiatives, potentially boosting clean energy stocks but affecting traditional sectors.

On trade, Trump has revived his stance on tariffs, particularly towards China, aiming to promote domestic industries. This could benefit U.S. manufacturing but may disrupt tech and consumer goods reliant on international supply chains. Harris's approach, while less aggressive, would aim for targeted tariffs, supporting U.S. interests without risking extensive trade conflicts, which could stabilise sectors sensitive to global markets.

Energy policy reflects another stark partisan contrast. Trump advocates for expanding fossil fuel production to reduce energy costs and inflation, which would likely favour traditional energy stocks. Harris's clean energy approach seeks to boost renewables like solar and wind, supporting sustainability-focused sectors, although it may come with initial cost implications for energy markets.

Potential Market Risks: Volatility, Fed Policy, and Foreign Relations

Market volatility could increase with trade and energy policy shifts, especially if Trump’s proposed tariffs amplify tensions with China. Retaliatory tariffs could hurt agriculture and technology exports, heightening risks in indices tied to these sectors. In contrast, Harris’s more moderate approach might result in steadier markets, benefiting industries with international exposure.

Monetary policy remains critical, with Trump favouring lower rates to spur growth, risking inflation if the Federal Reserve complies. Harris supports the Fed’s independence, suggesting more stable monetary policy with potential benefits for long-term economic stability.

Foreign relations also play a role, particularly concerning China and other trade partners. Trump’s tariff plans could heighten international tensions, whereas Harris’s approach is seen as less confrontational, benefiting multinational corporations and stabilising revenue streams from abroad, particularly in tech and healthcare.

Markets Affected by the US Election

In addition to concrete economic sectors that are seeing the impact of election season volatility, certain corners of the market are seeing ups and downs as well:

Forex & USD

The US dollar’s performance has fluctuated under different administrations, and the stakes are high this time around. A Republican victory could send the dollar soaring, fuelled by aggressive trade policies and rising interest rates, potentially strengthening it against the euro. On the flip side, if a Democrat takes the helm, analysts predict a softer dollar due to reduced fiscal expansion and declining real interest rates, which could benefit the euro in the EUR/USD pair. As election day approaches, volatility could be heightened, including on platforms like Plus500.

Commodities

The commodities market is already making waves. Rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are already influencing oil prices, and any further escalations could tighten supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, potentially driving oil prices up sharply. Precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, may attract risk-averse investors amid election uncertainty. If policies post-election signal heightened government spending or inflation concerns, metals like gold and silver could see increased demand, reinforcing their role as hedges in uncertain times.

Trading Election-Related Indices with Plus500

With all of the aforementioned shifts underway, there are unique opportunities to trade on the shifting political landscape through OTC products on specific indices available on Plus500. Notably, these indices reflect the anticipated impact of party control on various sectors, enabling diverse trading strategies.

● The US Democrats in Power Index (BUDIPI) tracks companies poised to thrive under Democratic governance. This index is weighted by Free-Float Market Capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater influence. Investors can look to sectors such as clean energy, healthcare, and technology, which are expected to benefit from policies likely to be enacted by a Democratic administration.

● Conversely, the US Republicans in Power Index (BURIPI) focuses on firms that are projected to gain from Republican leadership. The BURIPI index encompasses companies in the energy, defence, and financial sectors, reflecting potential tax cuts, deregulation, and increased military spending that could arise from a Republican victory.

● Additionally, traders can explore the Trumpnomics Index (BTRUIN), which specifically tracks businesses that may flourish under former President Trump’s economic policies. This index captures the performance of companies in industries such as fossil fuels, manufacturing, and infrastructure, which Trump has historically supported.

Riding the Volatility Wave

In the build-up to polling day, the potential for market volatility presents exciting trading opportunities as well as accompanying risks. With access to a wide range of OTC instruments and learning resources, Plus500 equips traders to potentially better navigate the uncertainties and ride the waves of uncertain global markets.

About Plus500

Plus500 is a global multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary technology-based trading platforms. Plus500 offers customers a range of trading products, including OTC (“Over-the-Counter” products, namely Contracts for Difference (CFDs)), share dealing, as well as futures and options on futures.

The Group retains operating licences and is regulated in the United Kingdom, Australia, Cyprus, Israel, New Zealand, South Africa, Singapore, the Seychelles, the United States, Estonia, Japan, the UAE and the Bahamas and through its OTC product portfolio, offers more than 2,500 different underlying global financial instruments, comprising equities, indices, commodities, options, ETFs, foreign exchange and cryptocurrencies. Customers of the Group can trade its OTC products in more than 60 countries and in 30 languages.

Plus500’s trading platforms are accessible from multiple operating systems (iOS, Android and Windows) and web browsers. Customer care is, and has always been, integral to Plus500. As such, OTC customers cannot be subject to negative balances. A free demo account is available on an unlimited basis for OTC trading platform users and sophisticated risk management tools are provided free of charge to manage leveraged exposure, and stop losses to help customers protect profits, while limiting capital losses.

Plus500 shares have a premium listing on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (symbol: PLUS) and are a constituent of the FTSE 250 index. https://www.plus500.com/.

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a new card-based RPG set in an expansive universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, is bringing a community-driven operational model to Web3 gaming. With a focus on sustainable growth, LoA aims to establish itself as a leading platform by integrating blockchain technology, unique NFT mechanics, and community-centric features that foster long-term player engagement.

As the Web3 gaming industry is forecasted to grow to $305 billion by 2030, LoA stands out by addressing key sustainability issues that have previously limited the success of Web3 gaming ventures. Many blockchain-based games have struggled with player retention and engagement, often due to unsustainable reward systems. LoA’s approach, built on years of gaming experience from its team’s work with industry leaders like Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios, centers on creating an inclusive, feedback-driven community.

Community-driven growth and operations

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, has a strong vision for reimagining live operations in Web3, called community-driven operations. The formula combines building a sticky and vocal community driven by a strong feedback loop and nimble implementation of the ideas. This has helped LoA stand out from others.

The team has spent the past two years perfecting the formula based on their decade-long experience in driving high DAU and retention at leading game companies such as Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios. At the same time, building a 60k+ strong community with users that actively interact with the team and provide them with feedback.

The right feedback loop between the community and the developer has led to innovative tactics for driving community engagement.

For example, rather than hosting traditional alpha tests, the team mixed the idea of esports and competition and invited people to form their own teams to compete during the test. This led to a brand-new Guild called Alter Ego Guild being formed in the community, and they remain some of the game’s biggest supporters, helping new players onboard and get deep into LoA.

During its three-month campaign, LoA had 100,000+ registered users with minimal marketing spend. It also has very high next-day and 7-day retention of 75% and 56%, respectively, higher than many traditional games' 50% and 20%. As it moves towards its TGE and official game launch, the community continues to provide feedback and support the team.

With backing from 10+ investors, including Animoca Brands and OKX Ventures, LoA can further develop the game's vastness, ensuring the community is constantly engaged with new content and utilities of its native token, $ARCA. This ranges from the endless possibilities of different NFT heroes to the countless actions and ways to earn $ARCA tokens.

Innovative NFT Mechanics and Extensive Gameplay

In LoA, each NFT hero is unique, with randomized genetic traits such as appearance and abilities drawn from a large gene pool of over five trillion combinations, including over 48 types of basic attributes, 40,000+ skill combinations, and more than 28 million gene combinations. This ensures that no two NFT heroes are the same.

The game team, supported by AI, has also created countless words and storylines, shaping different toy characters and enriching the stories of LoA. It also enhances player retention by implementing seasonal demands created by the in-game mechanics, which will eventually boost the trading volume.

$ARCA Token Distribution and Roadmap

In LoA, players can earn tokens through a variety of activities and strategies involving their NFT heroes. Inspired by a system commonly used in web2 games, by combining White Ores from mining with Black Ores earned in battles, they can produce $ARCA tokens. Heroes can also be customized through special events and features, which not only alter their appearance but can also provide gameplay advantages, such as enhanced mining power when using event-specific skins.

Players can also participate in PvE content by clearing dungeons and defeating bosses for valuable loot or diving into PvP battles to compete against others for rewards and climb seasonal leaderboards for even greater gains. To further boost their earnings, players can stake $ARCA tokens, unlocking additional rewards like free NFTs or a share of profits from NFT sales, adding another layer of value to their in-game investments.

In addition to earning tokens through in-game monetization, LoA further enhances sustainability by distinguishing between in-game and external economic factors. This structure allows players to monetize external elements, such as staking $ARCA tokens for special privileges and rewards or sharing in proceeds from NFT assets. This approach aims to foster long-term value creation over short-term speculative gains.

LoA will have a total supply of 40,000,000 $ARCA tokens that are distributed among seven pools where each pool will be further subdivided into different rank tiers based on the amount of Gacha Points earned.

With countless opportunities and activities in the world of LoA, the game constantly rejuvenates the excitement of its community and players, which will ensure its sustainability in the long run. The game also has plans for extensive single-player content (PVE mode) and multiplayer modes where players can form teams and challenge others in real-time battles. Legend of Arcadia is currently set to launch in November 2024.

About Legend of Arcadia

Legend of Arcadia (LOA) (https://legendofarcadia.io/) is a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts. LOA is built with the latest technology for the modern gamer, powered by blockchain. Players can enjoy the game for free, on the go, on a mobile device, and socialize in real-time with gamers from across the globe through immersive PvP game modes and by trading highly composable NFTs.

The U.S. presidential election draws near, and investors are on high alert as the outcomes of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's contrasting economic policies could have significant ramifications for the financial markets. With key decisions looming around tax rates, regulation, energy policy, and trade, the potential for market volatility increases depending on who gets into the White House and what the new balance of power in the U.S. Congress will be. In this article, Octa Broker's financial analyst, Kar Yong Ang, breaks down the candidates' divergent economic visions and outlines possible scenarios for market reactions post-election, offering critical insights for traders to navigate the uncertain financial landscape ahead.

With less than a day to go until the U.S. presidential election, investors and traders are bracing for the potential impact on the financial markets. Although both candidates (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) proclaim to pursue similar goals–––notably, creating jobs and boosting the U.S. manufacturing base–––they offer very different approaches to economic policy. Therefore, financial markets will almost certainly respond differently depending on who ultimately gets into the White House. Furthermore, it is important to factor in the possible changes in the arrangement of power on Capitol Hill, as 33 out of 100 senators and all 435 delegates in the House of Representatives will also seek re-election this November.

At Octa Broker, we decided to offer our view about what to expect from the upcoming elections and what could be the possible impact on the financial markets in general and on gold and the U.S. dollar in particular. Before we lay out the possible scenarios, let’s first briefly recap the economic policy visions of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, and of former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, and underline their key differences. Please note that this article will focus specifically on the candidates' economic policies that are expected to have the most impact on the financial markets and affect an average trader. Thus, the general focus is on tax policy, regulation, energy policy, foreign policy, and tariffs. The article will not delve into the details of other policies, such as abortion rights, immigration, housing, and healthcare policy.

Table 1: Comparing the Candidates

‘When you wake up on 6 November to check the results of the U.S. presidential elections, there are two things to keep in mind’, argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘Firstly, it is vital to realise just how decisive the victory of either of the candidates is. Secondly, it is very important to ascertain the new composition of the Legislative Branch'. Indeed, if either Harris or Trump wins the national popular vote with only a slim majority or the Electoral College produces mixed and uncertain results, the investors may get nervous, and market volatility will rise. ‘Contesting results are not good for the markets, as they may trigger disputes among the parties and delay important economic decisions in the best-case scenario and lead to social unrest and violence in the worst case’, Karr says.

The composition of the House and the Senate is equally important as they will largely determine the ultimate balance of power and the direction of the legislation. According to ABC News simulation, Republicans win control of the Senate 88 times out of 100[1], meaning that it is highly unlikely that the Democratic Party can manage to take out the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress. When it comes to the House of Representatives, however, the chances are 50/50. Thus, it seems reasonable to infer that only four potential scenarios exist in this election (see the table below).

Table 2: Possible Scenarios and the Dollar Impact

Scenarios 1 and 2

Scenarios 1 and 2 assume that Kamala Harris becomes the next President of the United States, but her executive power is severely or partly limited. In case Republicans capture both the House and the Senate, Harris's policy initiatives will be blocked or substantially amended. On balance, a Harris presidency facing a hostile Congress would bring about a politically unstable and unpredictable environment, which investors despise. As a result, the economy will underperform, stocks will decline, and the dollar will weaken.

‘A government paralysed by dysfunction and gridlock is the worst-case scenario for the U.S. economy in general and for the U.S. dollar in particular’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘The probability of a protracted government shutdown is very high under this scenario. U.S. stock market indices will certainly take a hit’.

Indeed, Harris's progressive initiatives on climate and the environment will be blocked, while fiscal and economic policy will become a key point of contention, leading to a major standoff over the budget. At the same time, Harris's presidency might result in less government spending, which will have a disinflationary impact, enabling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue reducing interest rates. That, too, however, will have a long-term bearish impact on the U.S. dollar.

In turn, the greenback's weakness may have a bullish impact on commodities, especially gold, as it will become more affordable for holders of other currencies. Another bullish factor for commodities in general and for gold, in particular, is that the conflict in Eastern Europe will likely drag on under Harris, given that she has been more in favour of supplying the weapons rather than pushing for a peace deal.

‘All in all, I think Harris's presidency will be met with a bearish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector. Companies focusing on renewables may perform better but still suffer in the long term as Harris will struggle to push her environmental agenda. The U.S. dollar will almost certainly sell off, while the euro and Chinese yuan will strengthen’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

Scenarios 3 and 4

Scenarios 3 and 4 assume that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the United States, but his executive power will either be partly limited by the Democratic House or, alternatively, he manages to achieve a sweeping victory with the Republican Party taking full control over both chambers of Congress. In this case, investors will likely cheer (at least in the short term), as Trump promises to cut red tape and reduce taxes. Stock indices will rally, and the dollar may strengthen. Still, there will be long-term risks associated with Trump’s trade policy.

‘The fears over U.S. debt sustainability will certainly rise under Trump’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘He will extend as well as enlarge the tax cuts, essentially bringing about a loose fiscal policy, which, in turn, will force the Fed to be hawkish’. Indeed, a Republican sweep victory is the most bullish scenario for the greenback in the midterm. Inflationary tax cuts will boost the economy and may potentially force the Fed to stop its rate-cutting campaign, which will support the U.S. dollar vs other currencies. However, the U.S.'s gigantic deficit will likely keep expanding. Reuters estimates that Donald Trump’s tax cut plans would add some $3.6 trillion to $6.6 trillion to federal deficits over a decade.

On the one hand, tax cuts may serve as a catalyst for U.S. economic growth, which should support oil prices, especially given that Trump is likely to enforce stricter sanctions against Iran. On the other hand, U.S. crude oil and natural gas output may rise as the Trump administration will likely support the companies engaged in fossil fuel production.

Trade policy is not expected to be Trump’s top priority, but he may still introduce new tariffs in 2025-2026. First and foremost, this will negatively affect China and its currency, the yuan. At the same time, Trump’s victory will be a major bullish factor for the crypto industry in general and for digital currencies in particular. He made no secret of his support for crypto and even advocated for the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.

‘All in all, I think Trump’s presidency will be met with a bullish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector, and especially in case of a sweeping victory. Companies with a focus on renewables will underperform, bitcoin will rally, while the euro and the Chinese yuan will fall. However, the market has already partly priced in Trump’s victory. Therefore, in a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario, the asset prices I just mentioned may actually drop immediately after the election, but will likely remain supported in 2025’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

SP Negócios, São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, has partnered with Polkadot to foster innovation among companies in São Paulo.

Driven by the growing market demand, Polkadot is increasingly positioning itself as an ally for businesses looking to grow in an innovative, secure, and transparent way. It has been sponsoring educational initiatives through Código Brazuca. Thanks to this, companies and citizens in São Paulo will have access to blockchain programming training through Código Brazuca's content starting in December. This will be possible through the partnership established with Polkadot / Sunset Labs and São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, SP Negócios.

“The partnership between Polkadot and SP Negócios will contribute to the training of Blockchain Programmers and is open to bringing technology to companies in São Paulo, whether they are startups, small and medium-sized enterprises, or large corporations seeking to invest in or adopt the technology,” says Gustavo J. Massena, Decentralized Business Developer at Polkadot.

The program is free and will be available online, open to companies in São Paulo. Registrations will soon be available through SP Negócios, and no prior qualifications are required.

The partnership with Polkadot is part of SP Negócios’s strategy to boost the business environment within the crypto economy sector, reinforcing São Paulo as a hub of technology and innovation. Blockchain plays a transformative role in various areas, including decentralized finance, asset tokenization, NFTs, and more. By promoting the training of qualified professionals, SP Negócios seeks to attract investments, foster new startups, and solidify the city as a reference in adopting and developing blockchain-based solutions.

About SP Negócios

SP Negócios (https://spnegocios.com/) is an autonomous social service aimed at boosting investments and business in São Paulo. It is linked to the Municipal Secretariat of Economic Development and Employment. The goal is to help São Paulo-based companies conduct more business through exports, innovation and technology, public sector engagement, and improvement of the business environment.

About Polkadot

Polkadot is an open-source, multichain sharing protocol that facilitates the transfer of any type of data or asset, not just tokens, between networks, making a wide range of blockchains interoperable.

The cryptocurrency market is evolving rapidly, and with it, advanced financial instruments like futures and options have emerged as popular tools for traders seeking to maximize their investment strategies. While these derivatives allow for speculative trades and strategic risk management, they each have unique characteristics, pros and cons, and complexities that make them suitable for different types of traders. As these instruments gain popularity, especially in crypto-focused financial hubs often termed as "Crypto Cities," understanding the nuances between futures and options has become essential for modern investors.

In this article, we’ll take an in-depth look at the mechanisms behind futures and options, their applications in cryptocurrency markets, and which scenarios favor each instrument. Whether you are looking to leverage a small investment into potentially higher returns or hedge your existing crypto holdings, this guide will provide you with a comprehensive understanding of futures and options and how they fit into the ever-expanding landscape of crypto trading.

What Are Futures in the Crypto Market?

Definition and Mechanism

Crypto futures are financial contracts obligating the buyer to purchase (or the seller to sell) a specific cryptocurrency at a predetermined price at a specified future date. Unlike spot markets, where transactions are settled instantly, futures allow traders to speculate on the future price movement of a cryptocurrency without owning the underlying asset.

Key Features of Crypto Futures

• Leverage: Futures contracts allow traders to control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital by using leverage. However, this amplifies both gains and losses.
• Settlement Date: Futures have an expiration or settlement date, which defines when the contract must be fulfilled or closed.
• Market Liquidity: Futures often have high liquidity, particularly for popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Pros and Cons of Futures

• Pros:
• High potential for returns with leveraged positions.
• Flexibility to profit from both rising and falling markets.
• No need to own the underlying cryptocurrency.
• Cons:
• Elevated risk due to leverage, which can lead to significant losses.
• Expiry dates require positions to be managed actively.
• Complex for beginners without financial background or trading experience.

What Are Options in the Crypto Market?

Definition and Mechanism

Crypto options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a cryptocurrency at a specified price on or before a certain date. This characteristic provides a flexible way to speculate on price movement or hedge against potential losses.

Key Features of Crypto Options

• Premium: To acquire an option, traders pay a premium, which is the upfront cost of the contract.
• Expiration Date: Like futures, options also have an expiration date, after which the option becomes invalid.
• Limited Risk for Buyers: The maximum loss for an option buyer is limited to the premium paid, whereas sellers face potentially unlimited losses.

Pros and Cons of Options

• Pros:
• Lower initial cost since only the premium needs to be paid.
• Limited risk for option buyers.
• Flexibility to hedge against price volatility.
• Cons:
• Options pricing can be complex, involving factors like volatility and time decay.
• Potential for unlimited losses for option sellers.
• Premiums can reduce profitability if the market doesn’t move in the anticipated direction.

Futures vs. Options: Key Differences

Obligation vs. Right

• Futures: With futures, both buyer and seller are obligated to fulfill the contract at expiration.
• Options: Options buyers are not obligated to exercise the contract. They can choose to let it expire if it’s unprofitable, minimizing potential losses to the premium paid.

Risk Exposure

• Futures: Leverage can amplify profits and losses, meaning traders can lose more than their initial investment.
• Options: Options buyers face limited risk, making it an appealing choice for conservative traders.

Expiration and Liquidity

• Futures: Have higher liquidity and are generally easier to enter and exit.
• Options: Can have less liquidity, particularly in crypto markets, making them more suitable for specific trading strategies.

Use Cases: When to Use Futures vs. Options

Trading Speculation

Futures are highly suited for short-term speculation, particularly when a trader has strong expectations about the direction of the market. By leveraging positions, traders can make the most of price fluctuations in the crypto market.

Options, on the other hand, are often used for strategies that benefit from volatility. Traders might buy options when they anticipate significant movement in either direction but are uncertain of which way it will go.

Hedging and Risk Management

Options are commonly used as a hedging tool because they provide a means to protect an investment from adverse price movements while only risking the premium. For instance, a crypto investor holding Bitcoin may purchase a put option to limit potential losses.

Futures, while also used for hedging, involve more risk due to their obligatory nature and leverage. They may be preferable for institutional traders or seasoned investors with significant exposure in the crypto market.

Crypto Cities and the Future of Derivative Trading

In emerging "Crypto Cities" like Miami, Singapore, and Dubai, crypto derivatives trading has become more accessible due to regulatory advancements and sophisticated trading infrastructure. These hubs promote financial innovation, supporting platforms that offer both futures and options trading with advanced risk management features. Leveraging tools like quantum ai can enhance trading analysis in these markets, allowing traders to make data-driven decisions and better manage the complexities of futures and options.

FAQ: Futures vs. Options in Crypto Markets

What are the main differences between futures and options in crypto?

Futures require an obligation to buy or sell at a set date, while options provide the right but not the obligation to execute the trade. This distinction gives options more flexibility.

Are futures riskier than options?

Yes, futures are generally riskier due to leverage and the obligation to settle the contract, while options limit the buyer’s risk to the premium paid.

Can I use both futures and options in crypto trading?

Yes, using both allows traders to diversify their strategies, speculating with futures while hedging with options.

Which is better for short-term trading, futures or options?

Futures are often better for short-term speculation due to their high liquidity and leverage.

What is the role of quantum ai in trading futures and options?

Quantum ai assists traders by analyzing vast amounts of data to identify trends and make data-driven trading decisions, helping to navigate the complexities of derivatives.

Do all exchanges offer futures and options trading?

No, only certain exchanges offer both. It’s essential to choose a reputable exchange that supports these derivatives and offers tools for risk management.

How does leverage work in futures trading?

Leverage allows traders to control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. However, it also increases the potential for losses.

What factors affect options pricing?

Options pricing is influenced by the underlying asset’s price, volatility, time to expiration, and the strike price.

Can options expire worthless?

Yes, if an option is out of the money at expiration, it becomes worthless, and the buyer loses the premium.

Is it possible to hedge with both futures and options?

Yes, futures can be used for directional hedging, while options provide flexibility to hedge against volatility and risk.

Conclusion

In the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading, understanding the differences between futures and options is vital for traders looking to maximize their strategies and manage risk. While futures offer a straightforward, leveraged approach to capitalize on price movements, options provide flexibility and limited risk exposure, making them suitable for cautious investors and complex trading strategies.

By integrating advanced tools like quantum ai into trading strategies, investors can gain insights into market trends and optimize their decision-making process. Whether operating in a traditional market or an emerging Crypto City, being informed about futures and options can enhance trading outcomes and provide a competitive edge in the crypto market.

What we know so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will determine how successfully and effectively the next president will be able to govern.

So far, Republicans have won an extra seat in the Senate, but neither of the parties has a clear advantage in the battle for the House of Representatives. Overall, the counting of votes is still at a relatively early stage, and it could be hours or even days before a final outcome is known. The contest will come down to seven swing states, only three of which (North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) have been most likely won by Trump so far. Still, judging by the latest market reaction, it appears reasonable to infer that global investors are pricing in a decisive victory by Donald Trump.

What has been the impact so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, the global markets were positioned for Donald Trump’s victory. U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock benchmark indices rallied sharply, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher. Given that, it is no wonder other major fiat currencies plunged, with EURUSD and GBPUSD down 1.82% and 1.32%, respectively, while bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $75,410, as per Coinbase.

'Such a dramatic shift in market sentiment is explained by Trump’s official policies, or more precisely by the possible effect these policies are likely to have,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. 'Generally, it all boils down to Trump's tax, immigration, and trade policies, which differ greatly from what Harris proposed. The market perceives them as inflationary, which is why we are seeing a bullish impact in the U.S. dollar.'

The United States controls the world's primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, so only a few countries will not feel the effect of the latest U.S. presidential and congressional elections. Major currencies are already experiencing the initial impact. 'Major currencies are falling predominantly because the U.S. dollar is rising, but there is also a fear that Trump's policy on tariffs may hit their domestic economies,' Kar said.

Indeed, the primary reason for such a dramatic decline in EURUSD, for example, is that investors fear that Trump's policies on immigration and taxes will spur inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy. This may expand the interest rate differential between the two economies, favouring the greenback. In addition, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on certain European goods like autos and chemicals. According to some analysts, Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports may erode Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260bn.

A similar kind of impact may await the United Kingdom, where Trump's blanket tariffs would hit billions of pounds of U.K. automotive, pharmaceutical, and liquor exports. It stands to logic that GBPUSD was down more than 1.3% today.

For similar reasons, CNYUSD (Chinese renminbi / U.S. dollar spot rate) hit a 3-month high. 'For the Chinese economy, the risks are even greater, as Trump promised to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. On top of that, under his administration, tensions are likely to grow over the CNYUSD exchange rate,' comments Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. Although the currency policy of the future Trump Administration is unclear, in his interview with Bloomberg, he had this to say: ‘We have a big currency problem because the depth of the currency now in terms of strong dollar / weak yen, weak yuan, is massive.

Interestingly, the impact on the gold market has been relatively muted so far. As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, XAUUSD was down 1.2%, but historically, it is not a significant swing, especially given how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened. 'Because Trump's victory appears to be decisive, it lowers the probability of social tensions in the U.S., which is not a minor factor considering how fractious U.S. politics has become lately. Thus, XAUUSD is selling off, but I think there are bullish risks ahead as relations between China and the U.S. turn bitter,' comments Kar Yong Ang.

Indeed, Donald Trump will likely heighten the Sino-U.S. trade tensions, which is a positive factor for gold in general. In addition, Trump's massive tax cuts will likely expand the U.S. fiscal deficit and may turn some strategic investors away from the U.S. dollar and into gold and bitcoin. In fact, BTCUSD hit a new all-time high on the news of Trump's potential victory. He is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.

In the short term, all the bullish dollar trades may temporarily reverse as traders buy the dips in EURUSD and GBPUSD in hope of a technical rebound. In the long term, however, the bearish pressure on these pairs will likely persist.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and expressed gratitude to his family, friends and team. Interestingly, alongside Grover Cleveland – the first Democrat elected following the Civil War – Trump is the second president to serve for a second non-consecutive term for four years.

In a surprising turn, Trump’s victory speech was relatively subdued; no threats of tariffs were mentioned, and he did not refer to his opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who postponed her scheduled speech at Howard University. ‘Winning the popular vote was very nice’, Trump said in his speech, adding: ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate; we have taken back control of the Senate’.

Several members of Trump’s team and friends were invited to speak on stage. His running mate, JD Vance of Ohio, thanked Trump for allowing him to ‘join you on this incredible journey’. Vance added, ‘I think we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America’.

Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), also addressed the nation, stating, ‘Nobody deserves this more than him [Trump]’. He remarked that Trump ‘is the most resilient man I have ever met’.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also received significant praise from Trump, voicing his appreciation and calling Musk a ‘super genius’, emphasising that ‘we have to protect our geniuses’. Musk has been vocal in his support for Trump and reportedly invested over US$130 million in his campaign.

Foreign leaders applauded Trump for his victory. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and said he looks forward to collaborating with Trump in the years ahead. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the platform X to convey his wishes as well, emphasising his desire to strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Trump's win as ‘history's greatest comeback’ in his post on X.

What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the US?

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Americans can expect tax cuts, immigration controls and tariffs.

A Trump presidency will also likely mean lower taxes, a move with plans for widespread changes to taxation, which should increase spending and spur sentiment, at least in the near term.

In his own words, Donald Trump’s second term is expected to be ‘nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular’. Trump has promised an aggressive approach towards illegal immigration in the US, which could include plans of mass deportation of undocumented migrants, noting that he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’.

Trade tariffs are another one of Trump’s policies that the US economy can expect, as he is expected to increase the protectionist policies he introduced in his first term. However, as noted, he failed to address this in his victory speech today.

Another important issue that Trump and the team must address is the debt ceiling (or debt limit), which is the maximum amount of money the US Treasury can borrow to pay its debt obligations. You may recall that the ‘statutory debt ceiling’ was suspended in early January and is due to be reinstated on 1 January 2025. This may involve the Treasury drawing on its existing cash to fulfil its short-term obligations until another suspension of the debt limit is imposed or the debt ceiling is further increased.

Trump Trade is Alive and Kicking

Markets responded as expected, reigniting the Trump Trade, with the US dollar (USD), US Treasury yields, US equities and digital currencies all catching a strong bid.

Despite moderately fading session highs, the US Dollar Index is up 1.5%, which could eventually see the Index aim for June peaks at around 106.13, closely followed by 106.52, the high for the year. US Treasury yields remain underpinned, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near session highs around 4.42% (up 3.5%).

While commodities experienced a selloff, we have seen a modest recovery unfold, drawing spot gold (XAU/USD) and WTI oil off session lows. In the crypto space, versus the USD, Bitcoin clocked a fresh record high of US$75,415 (up 6.4%), and Ethereum is up nearly 9.0% and testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, pencilled in from US$2,062 and US$2,790.

Since its founding in 2004, Dukascopy has grown into a trusted, innovative leader in the fintech and online trading space, providing clients with advanced tools and a stable platform for smart financial decisions.

Over the past 20 years, Dukascopy has reached major milestones that reflect its core values of stability, innovation, and putting clients first. From its proprietary JForex platform to the popular MT4 and MT5, Dukascopy offers a variety of trading platforms along with modern neo-banking services for both individuals, businesses, and institutions. The bank has also led the way in technology upgrades with White Label and banking-as-a-platform solutions.

As Dr.Andre Duka, Dukascopy’s founder, says, "Innovation has always been at the heart of what we do. We aim to continue delivering these high standards into the future. Thank you, our clients, for choosing us for these 20 years."

Currently, Dukascopy (https://dukascopy.click/agw) proudly serves over 400,000 clients across both trading and banking services. This commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions, backed by Swiss-grade stability, has allowed the company to maintain long-term relationships with clients, many of whom have been trading and banking with Dukascopy for decades.

As the company looks toward the future, Dukascopy remains focused on empowering traders and banking clients, expecting significant growth of its client base across all segments, from trading to neo-banking, corporate to white-label services.

Introduction to Amega

Amega is a multi-award-winning global financial broker, authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission under investment license No. GB22200548. Its mission is to make trading simple and accessible to traders of all levels and backgrounds, through the introduction of new technologies, groundbreaking innovations, and a client-first mentality. Amega prides itself on providing a safe and transparent trading environment, allowing investors to trade a variety of assets with unparalleled ease of mind.

The Lucky Deposit draw

Amega’s Lucky Deposit Draw is here to give traders a monthly boost!

Participating is simple! All you need to do is make a minimum deposit of $50 during the month and have an active trading history with Amega. Once you're eligible, you'll be entered into the lucky draw, where 5 lucky traders will walk away with incredible monetary prizes that can be used to trade or be withdrawn as physical cash.

What are the prizes?

1st winner: $100 2nd winner: $80 3rd winner: $60 4th winner: $40 5th winner: $20

Every month, there’s a fresh chance to boost your trading capital or cash out — it’s up to you! The Lucky Deposit Draw is your monthly opportunity to win, and Amega is here to make sure you have the chance to get ahead. No complicated requirements – just trade, deposit, and win!

Ready to make this month your lucky month?

Sign up today, create your account in seconds, make your deposit, and get in on the draw!

Visit amega.finance to learn more about Amega and its many benefits, such as the Loyalty Cashback Program which offers volume-based cash rewards for every single trade, regardless of the market direction. Good Luck!

Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion

"People with knowledge of the matter" cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg.

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering going private by buying back its own shares in a bid to avoid a takeover attempt by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, the news report says.

ING remarks after the wages data from Australia earlier:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

ING says that year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.5% is a step in the right direction for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider rate cuts.

However, ING notes this deceleration alone isn’t enough for the RBA to rule out any upside risks to interest rates.

Despite the softer data, ING believes a case for a near-term rate cut remains weak, predicting the earliest possible easing from the RBA could come in the first quarter of 2025.

**

I suspect even Q1 is too early. The RBA next meet on December 9 - 10, where on hold is expected.

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024,

• Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydney
• that's 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Perhaps we'll hear something on wages data from earlier today:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)

But, probably not:

• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

The RBA next meet on December 9 and 10 and no change to the cash rate is widely expected.

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely to once again keep price action locked in until we get to US trading later at least.

As an aside, just be wary of the larger option expiries at the same level of 1.0600 through the week. And on Friday, EUR/USD also has a very large one pinned at 1.0700. So, just be wary of that in case.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.