Jan 15, 2020

Joseph Nye writes that some decoupling of interdependence is likely, particularly in areas related to technology that directly affect national security. But will Washington and Beijing go too far?

Jan 21, 2020

Joseph Nye's new book rates the efforts of presidents from FDR to Trump.

Jan 28, 2020

In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect.

Feb 3, 2020

The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research.

Feb 10, 2020

Realistic, creative vulnerability assessment and testing are critical to finding and fixing nuclear security weaknesses and avoiding over-confidence. Both vulnerability assessment and realistic testing are needed to ensure that nuclear security systems are providing the level of protection required. Systems must be challenged by experts thinking like adversaries, trying to find ways to overcome them. Effective vulnerability assessment and realistic testing are more difficult in the case of insider threats, and special attention is needed. Organizations need to find ways to give people the mission and the incentives to find nuclear security weaknesses and suggest ways they might be fixed. With the right approaches and incentives in place, effective vulnerability assessment and testing can be a key part of achieving and sustaining high levels of nuclear security.

Feb 10, 2020

Nuclear security is never finished. Nuclear security measures for protecting all nuclear weapons, weapons-usable nuclear materials, and facilities whose sabotage could cause disastrous consequences should protect against the full range of plausible threats. It is an ongoing endeavor that requires constant assessment of physical protection operations and reevaluation of potential threats. One of the most challenging areas of nuclear security is how to account for the impact–positive and negative—of non-nuclear emerging technologies. The amended Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (amended CPPNM) states it should be reviewed in light of the prevailing situation, and a key part of the prevailing situation is technological evolution. Therefore, the upcoming review conference in 2021, as well as any future review conferences, should examine the security threats and benefits posed by emerging technologies.

Feb 10, 2020

Civil society has played a very important role in nuclear security over the years, and its role could be strengthened in the future. Some nuclear organizations react against the very idea of civil society involvement, thinking of only one societal role—protesting. In fact, however, civil society has played quite a number of critical roles in nuclear security over the years, including highlighting the dangers of nuclear terrorism; providing research and ideas; nudging governments to act; tracking progress and holding governments and operators accountable; educating the public and other stakeholders; promoting dialogue and partnerships; helping with nuclear security implementation; funding initial steps; and more. Funding organizations (both government and non-government) should consider ways to support civil society work and expertise focused on nuclear security in additional countries. Rather than simply protesting and opposing, civil society organizations can help build more effective nuclear security practices around the world.

Feb 10, 2020

Participants at the final Nuclear Security Summit in 2016 agreed on “action plans” for initiatives they would support by five international organizations and groups—the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, INTERPOL, the United Nations, and the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Destruction. These institutions were supposed to play key roles in bolstering ongoing nuclear security cooperation after the summit process ended. The action plans were modest documents, largely endorsing activities already underway, and there have been mixed results in implementing them. To date, these organizations have not filled any substantial part of the role once played by the nuclear security summits.

Feb 23, 2020

With the Russia investigation and impeachment behind him, President Trump finally may feel empowered to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and pursue an arms control deal.  

Mar 2, 2020

How do presidents incorporate morality into decisions involving the national interest? Moral considerations explain why Truman, who authorized the use of nuclear weapons in Japan during World War II, later refused General MacArthur's request to use them in China during the Korean War. What is contextual intelligence, and how does it explain why Bush 41 is ranked first in foreign policy, but Bush 43 is found wanting? Is it possible for a president to lie in the service of the public interest? In this episode, Professor Joseph S. Nye considers these questions as he explores the role of morality in presidential decision-making from FDR to Trump.

Mar 5, 2020

The opening of the British archives has seen historians uncover the secrets of the UK's nuclear weapons programme since the 1990s. While a growing number have sought to expose these former secrets, there has been less effort to consider government secrecy itself. What was kept a secret, when and why? And how and why, notably from the 1980s, did the British government decide to officially disclose greater information about the British nuclear weapons programme to Members of Parliament, journalists, defence academics and the tax-paying general public. 

Mar 17, 2020

On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny.

On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the memorandum’s signature, the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, with the support of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, hosted a conference to revisit the history of the Budapest Memorandum, consider the repercussions of its violation for international security and the broader nonproliferation regime, and draw lessons for the future. The conference brought together academics, practitioners, and experts who have contributed to developing U.S. policy toward post-Soviet nuclear disarmament, participated in the negotiations of the Budapest Memorandum, and dealt with the repercussions of its breach in 2014. The conference highlighted five key lessons learned from the experience of Ukraine’s disarmament, highlighted at the conference.

Mar 31, 2020

A nuclear explosion detonated anywhere by a terrorist group would be a global humanitarian, economic, and political catastrophe. The current COVID-19 pandemic reminds us not to ignore prevention of and preparation for low-probability, high-consequence disasters. For nuclear terrorism, while preparation is important, prevention must be the top priority. The most effective strategy for keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists is to ensure that nuclear materials and facilities around the world have strong and sustainable security. Every president for more than two decades has made strengthening nuclear security around the globe a priority. This includes the Trump administration, whose 2018 Nuclear Posture Review states: “[n]uclear terrorism remains among the most significant threats to the security of the United States, allies, and partners.”

Apr 11, 2020

A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.

Apr 24, 2020

In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings.

Apr 27, 2020

The authors conducted a study which highlights how the U.S. public as a whole and various demographic groups view President Donald Trump's positions on nuclear weapons.

May 6, 2020

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.

Sebastian Vettel took pole position for the United States Grand Prix after edging out Lewis Hamilton for pole position by 0.109s. His title rival Fernando Alonso will start eighth on the grid

Read what the teams and drivers had to say after the United States Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton won an enthralling United States Grand Prix ahead of Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, meaning the drivers' championship will go down to the final round in Brazil

Pedro de la Rosa says he is trying to block out the speculation about the uncertain future of HRT at this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix and will wait to see what happens from Monday onwards

Lewis Hamilton led a closely fought first practice session for the Brazilian Grand Prix, which saw the two McLarens and two Red Bulls covered by less than a tenth of a second

Read what the teams and drivers had to say after practice for the Brazilian Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton set the pace in second practice after McLaren made a strong start to the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend

Jenson Button just beat Sebastian Vettel to the fastest time of the final practice session at the Brazilian Grand Prix by 0.057s, while Vettel's championship contender Fernando Alonso finished down in eighth

Read what the teams and drivers had to say after qualifying for the Brazilian Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton took pole position as part of a McLaren front-row lockout at the Brazilian Grand Prix as championship contenders Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso only managed fourth and eighth respectively

The stewards at the Brazilian Grand Prix have decided to take no further action after investigating a collision between Romain Grosjean and Pedro de la Rosa during qualifying

Read what the teams and drivers had to say after the Brazilian Grand Prix

Sebastian Vettel clinched his third successive drivers' championship after an utterly absorbing final race in Brazil

While the media clustered around Sebastian Vettel in the aftermath of the Brazilian Grand Prix, the HRT team quietly started to pack up for what most believe will be the last time

HRT appears set to close after failing to find a buyer in time to make the FIA's 2013 entry list

One of HRT's suppliers has accused the team of providing "misleading information" and claims the team went in to liquidation in early November

Bernie Ecclestone believes Formula One would be better off with 10 teams as the grid looks set to be reduced to 11 in 2012

A new bid to take over HRT and rebrand it Scorpion Racing is not likely to get the go-ahead to compete in this year's championship, according to Bernie Ecclestone

Being born and growing up in Ibuga refugee camp in Western Uganda, I had never felt the sweetness of my home country nor even what it looked like. As a young girl, I thought the camp was my country, only to learn that it was not. Rather, when I was 8 years old, I learned…

Southern African Customs Union and Mozambique sign post-Brexit trade agreement with the United Kingdom On Tuesday, the United Kingdom signed an economic partnership agreement with six African countries, including the five-country Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Mozambique, that would take effect after the U.K.’s official exit from the European Union. SACU includes Botswana, eSwatini,…

The Red Sea has fast become the subject of new geopolitical intrigue, as unprecedented engagement between Gulf states and the Horn of Africa reframes politics, economics, and security astride one of the world’s most heavily trafficked waterways. Friends and foes have converged in this increasingly crowded neighborhood as the Red Sea and its environs are…

The Red Sea has long represented a critical link in a network of global waterways stretching from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean to the Pacific—a strategic and economic thoroughfare one U.S. defense official dubbed the “Interstate-95 of the planet.” Prized by conquerors from Alexander to Napoleon, the Red Sea’s centrality to maritime trade and…

Security and youth top agenda during US Assistant Secretary of State Nagy’s visit to Africa On January 15, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy headed to Africa for a six-nation tour that included stops in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia. Security was on the top of the agenda…

The ambitious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been a point of contention among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in recent years. The GERD is now 70 percent complete and its reservoir expected to start being filled in the rainy season of 2020. The three countries, however, have not yet reached an agreement on the process…

Guinea-Bissau and TOGO election updates Leadership in Guinea-Bissau remains unclear as the results of the December 29 runoff presidential election are being challenged in the country’s supreme court. Late last month, the country’s National Election Commission declared former Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embalo of the Movement of Democratic Change the winner with about 54 percent…

Read what the drivers and teams had to say after day one of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi

Read what the drivers and teams had to say after day two of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi

Jean-Eric Vergne impressed for Red Bull as he set the fastest time on the opening day of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi

Read what the drivers and teams had to say after the final day of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi

Lotus will be bringing a new rear wing to the Brazilian Grand Prix which should see it close the gap to the midfield in qualifying

Luis Razia will drive for Lotus in Friday's first free practice session ahead of the Brazilian Grand Prix

Mark Webber was quickest of a very competitive first practice session for the Brazilian Grand Prix