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COVID-19's Painful Lesson About Strategy and Power

Joseph Nye writes that while trade wars have set back economic globalization,  the environmental globalization represented by pandemics and climate change is unstoppable. Borders are becoming more porous to everything from drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism, and the United States must use its soft power of attraction to develop networks and institutions that address these new threats.




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An Interview with Bruce Schneier, Renowned Security Technologist

Bruce Schneier discusses current security technology concerns with The Politic's Eric Wallach.




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Spies Are Fighting a Shadow War Against the Coronavirus

Calder Walton describes four ways how intelligence services are certain to contribute to defeating COVID-19 and why pandemic intelligence will become a central part of future U.S. national security.




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No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




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Getting Smart on Pandemics: Intelligence in the Wake of COVID-19

This episode of Horns of a Dilemma touches on whether the failure to properly anticipate and warn about the novel coronavirus constitutes an intelligence failure, what changes might be required in the intelligence community in the wake of the pandemic, and what type of investigation or inquiry might be appropriate in order to learn lessons and incorporate changes for both the intelligence community and the whole of government moving forward.




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There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




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So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert.

In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings.




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This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




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To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced

The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord.




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Poll: What the American Public Likes and Hates about Trump's Nuclear Policies

The authors conducted a study which highlights how the U.S. public as a whole and various demographic groups view President Donald Trump's positions on nuclear weapons.




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How the Pentagon Is Struggling to Stay out of Politics

 Gen. Mark. A. Milley’s job is to provide sound military advice to the president. But at a deeper level, his responsibility is to safeguard the independence and integrity of the armed forces. The last thing the country needs is a military leadership that’s trying to curry favor with any commander in chief, particularly one who’s hungry for affirmation.




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Why Bernie Sanders Will Win in 2020, No Matter Who Gets Elected

Stephen Walt writes that even though Bernie Sanders is out of the presidential race, the time has come for many of the policies that he promoted: Universal Healthcare; Democratic Socialism; Income Redistribution; and Foreign Policy.




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Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




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Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




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The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars

Stephen Walt writes that arguments against U.S. offshore balancing misunderstand history. The strategy that worked against the Soviet Union can work against China.




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Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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Breaking the Ice: How France and the UK Could Reshape a Credible European Defense and Renew the Transatlantic Partnership

History is replete with irony, but rarely more poignantly than in the summer of 2016 when, on 23 June, the UK voted to leave the European Union and the next day, 24 June, the EU published its Global Strategy document asserting its ambition of “strategic autonomy.” Whither Franco-British defense cooperation in such chaotic circumstances? This paper attempts to provide the outline of an answer to that question.




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We Must Prepare for the Next Pandemic

Bruce Schneier explains why accurate information will be just as important as effective treatments when the next pandemic strikes.




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Capital Choices: Sectoral Politics and the Variation of Sovereign Wealth

Capital Choices analyzes the creation of different SWFs from a comparative political economy perspective, arguing that different state-society structures at the sectoral level are the drivers for SWF variation. Juergen Braunstein focuses on the early formation period of SWFs, a critical but little understood area given the high levels of political sensitivity and lack of transparency that surround SWF creation. Braunstein’s novel analytical framework provides practical lessons for the business and finance organizations and policymakers of countries that have created, or are planning to create, SWFs.




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Juergen Braunstein: Can Swiss Afford a State Fund?

The idea of a Swiss sovereign wealth fund (SWF) which could use a part of the country’s massive reserves for investments arose after Switzerland had established in 2011 its currency link to the Euro. Since then various sovereign wealth options have been discussed, from a SWF with a savings mandate to a fund with a strategic investment mandate, a private equity-type fund that invests in technology start-ups and protects against hostile foreign takeovers of strategic companies.




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ISIS is a Survivor

Stephen Walt explains ISIS's ability to hang around despite its unrelieved brutality and its near-total failure to deliver on any its promises.




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Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence

A new book edited by Erica Chenoweth, Deborah Avant, Marie Berry, Rachel Epstein, Cullen Hendrix, Oliver Kaplan, and Timothy Sisk, Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence, looks at recent conflicts in Syria, Peru, Kenya, Northern Ireland, Mexico, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Spain, and Colombia to explore the role that civil action played.




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Home, Again: Refugee Return and Post-Conflict Violence in Burundi

In post-conflict societies, divisions can emerge between returnee and nonmigrant groups, which can in turn lead to violence and destabilization when government institutions favor one group over another.




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Sending Refugees Back Makes the World More Dangerous

Repatriating refugees to dangerous countries violates international law and breeds conflict, instability, and future crises. Regional work visas and long-term integration into host countries are more promising solutions.




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China’s African Envoys Take Twitter Tips from Trump in PR Offensive

Chinese diplomats in Africa are robustly defending Beijing’s policies on Twitter as part of a new and sometimes aggressive public relations campaign which is playing out across the globe as the country’s envoys answer President Xi Jinping’s call to “tell China stories well”.south chi




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How to Topple Dictators and Transform Society

Nonviolent resistance scholar Erica Chenoweth explains the key ingredients of successful social movements.




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Armed Rebel Groups Lobby in D.C., Just Like Governments. How Does That Influence U.S. Policy?

Armed rebel groups push for funding and recognition, and often get it.




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H-Diplo Review Essay 192 on Lawson. Anatomies of Revolution

Emily Whalen reviews Anatomies of Revolution by George Lawson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019).




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Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the United States, and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that.




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The COVID-19 Cash Out

Because hand-to-hand exchange of physical currency could transmit the coronavirus, countries around the world are being forced to reconsider the use of cash. In fact, COVID-19 might turn out to be the catalyst that finally brings digital payments fully into the mainstream. Not surprisingly, the digital-payments industry is already focusing on the opportunities created by the crisis.




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U.S. Intervention in Russia-Saudi Impasse Isn't Tenable (Radio)

Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, former National Security Council advisor, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the oil market plunge, and the Russia-Saudi relationship. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.




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COVID-19 Pandemic Accelerates the Rise of Digital Payments

Could using the cash in your pocket have the potential to spread covid-19? That question has rarely appeared in the news, but many governments and leaders in the digital payments industry are wondering how the virus might impact the use of cash. Several countries have already taken drastic measures to limit circulation of bank notes. Could such interventions lead to the end of cash payments?




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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




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The Impact of AI and Digitalization on Social Cohesion

February 24th, 2020, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Dr. Gesche Joost, Professor of Design Research at the Berlin University of the Arts and head of the Design Research Lab since 2005, discussed the digital divide and how it will shape social connectivity in an event moderated by Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Executive Director of the Future of Diplomacy Project and the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, and Lauren Zabierek, Executive Director of the Cyber Project.




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Oil Markets Provide a Glimpse of the Post-Pandemic Future

Henry Kissinger warns that many existing domestic and international institutions that have helped govern the past decades will not survive the Covid-19 crisis. He is surely correct.




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What Caused the COVID-19 Testing Deficit?

As the divergent experiences of the US and South Korea show, testing can be the difference between disease containment and catastrophe. Rather than relying on national governments to ensure the rapid development, production, and deployment of diagnostics during outbreaks, the world needs a global coordinating platform.




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An Abysmal Failure of Leadership

During times of crisis, the most effective leaders are those who can build solidarity by educating the public about its own interests. Sadly, in the case of COVID-19, the leaders of the world's two largest economies have gone in the opposite direction, all but ensuring that the crisis will deepen.




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Punjab govt advances paddy sowing, transplantation dates

The agriculture department had earlier fixed May 10 as the date to begin sowing of paddy nursery and June 20 for paddy transplantation, during the current kharif season. The farmers had raised concerns about meeting the cultivation/sowing requirements in view of the labour shortage resulting from migrant labourers returning to their homes in view of the COVID-19 crisis.




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Extinction watch: A coral that looks like a flowerpot

The coral is composed of many small polyps and forms large colonies approximately 2 metres across. The polyp skeleton is a dusky pink colour.




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Extinction watch: Amber eyes, dwindling fast

As of December 2017, fewer than 50 individuals are thought to be remaining in three subpopulations that are scattered over 140,000 square km in Iran’s central plateau. The cats have been nearly wiped out by excessive hunting, habitat degradation and scarcity of prey species.




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Extinction watch: Too delicious to be left to grow wild

These wild mushrooms usually fetch between 50 and 70 Euros per kilogram. This encourages people to collect and sell the mushrooms, often before they are mature. It is estimated that only 250 White Ferulas make it to maturity each year.




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Extinction watch: Its egg and meat makes it a much hunted fish

Since the 1940s, this species has attracted considerable attention because of its plasticity; in the 1950s, tests were carried out to introduce the species into various open stretches of water (Baltic Sea) or closed areas (lakes). The farming of this species




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Social in nature, wanderer by habit

These birds are part of the Lapwing genus Vanellus, which diverged from all other species of birds 28 million years ago! Two sociable lapwings, satellite tagged in Kazakhstan, flew more than 5,000 miles to central Sudan where they spent the winter before their return flight to breeding grounds in the central Asian republic.




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Extinction watch: Purple haze

Georgia aster is currently found in five US counties in Alabama, 15 in Georgia, nine in North Carolina and 14 in South Carolina. It was once known from Florida, but is no longer found there. Across its range, 146 total populations have been known, of these, 28 have likely disappeared.




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Extinction Watch: This shark doesn’t need saltwater to survive

Unlike other members of this family, the eyes of the Ganges shark are tilted dorsally, instead of laterally or ventrally, indicating that it may swim along the river bed scanning the waters above for prey. Its sharp and slender teeth suggest that it is primarily a fi sh-eater. It is often confused with the bull shark, which is known to attack humans




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Blue skies, reduced emissions only temporary, won't benefit environment in long run: Experts

Environmentalists feel that carbon emissions may have reduced drastically but are likely to go back to the pre-corona levels in a few weeks' time, once the virus threat mitigates.




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Extinction Watch: Rarely at home in the prairies

The plant has been listed as a threatened species in the United States since 1989, and in 2008 it was listed as an endangered species by the IUCN.




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Extinction Watch: How African Black Rhino came back from extinction

Between 2012 and 2018, the Black Rhino (Diceros bicornis) population across Africa has grown at a modest annual rate of 2.5% from an estimated 4,845 to 5,630 animals in the wild, respectively. Population models predict a further slow increase over the next five years, according to IUCN’s March 2020 update.




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Extinction Watch: Giraffe, we’re talking about space walking

Illegal hunting, habitat loss and changes through expanding agriculture and mining, increasing humanwildlife conflict, and civil unrest are all pushing the species towards extinction.




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Extinction Watch: Pennantia Baylisiana is back from the brink

In 1945, the tree, also known as ‘Kaikomako Manawa Tawhi’, was visited by professor Geoff Baylis, who brought a cutting back to Auckland and nurtured it to maturity at the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR).