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People's Republic of China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002

How have Latin American exporters been affected by the rapid increase in the PRC's exports to the USA and other large markets? Are PRC and Latin American exports complementary or competitive with each other?



  • Publications/Papers and Briefs

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22 drown as bus plunges into river in Diamer: rescue officials

Twenty-two people drowned, while one person was saved on Tuesday after a bus carrying them plunged into a river in Gilgit-Baltistan’s Diamer district on Tuesday, according to rescue officials.

“Sixteen dead bodies have been recovered from the river, while the search for the remaining persons continues,” Senior Superintendent of Police Diamer, Sher Khan, told Dawn.com.

He added that a woman, who was a bride, had sustained injuries and was receiving treatment at a hospital.

Sharing details of the accident earlier, Rescue 1122 spokesperson Shaukat Riaz told Dawn.com that a bus coming from Astore fell into the Indus River from Telchi bridge in the limits of Diamer district in Gilgit-Baltistan on Tuesday afternoon.

“The vehicle was part of a wedding procession heading towards Punjab’s Chakwal district,” he said.

He added the passengers who were onboard the bus had been identified and women were among the drowned.

“Nineteen of them belonged to Astore while four were from the Chakwal district of Punjab,” he said.

The district administration officials were also present on the spot and supervised the search operation in the river, Riaz added.

President Asif Ali Zardari expressed his grief and conveyed his condolences to the victims’ relatives.

Road accidents are frequent in KP and GB, exacerbated by harsh weather, rugged terrain, poorly maintained roads, overloaded vehicles, and minimal traffic regulations.

The narrow, winding routes and driver fatigue further elevate risk, making these regions especially accident-prone.

In October, two people were killed and 36 others were injured when a Rawalpindi-bound passenger bus fell into a ravine in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Upper Kohistan area.




2

Arrested facilitator of 2023 Peshawar Police Lines blast was ‘our own policeman’: KP IG

A suspect who was allegedly involved in the 2023 blast at Peshawar Police Lines mosque, that claimed 84 lives, was arrested a day earlier and has been identified as police constable Muhammad Wali, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Inspector General of Police (IG) Akhtar Hayat Khan Gandapur revealed in a press briefing on Tuesday.

On Jan 30, 2023, a powerful explosion ripped through a mosque in Peshawar’s Red Zone area where between 300 and 400 people — mostly police officers — had gathered for prayers.

The banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had claimed responsibility for the attack. It later distanced itself from the blast but sources earlier indicated that it might have been the handiwork of some local faction of the outlawed group.

Addressing the press conference in Peshawar today, IG Gandapur said the “remaining missing link” was related to who had facilitated Qari, the alleged suicide bomber.

“As a result of that effort, […] we arrested this person along with two suicide jackets from near Jameel Chowk on Peshawar’s Ring Road on 11/11, meaning yesterday,” the IG stated, referring to the facilitator.

“Based on the interrogation, it was deduced that the facilitator was our own policeman,” who he identified as Muhammad Wali.

“The suspect operated in line with the order of the banned organisation Jamaatul Ahrar and has received Rs200,000 through the hundi-hawala system,” KP IG said, adding that the policeman also received Rs40,000 to Rs50,000 from the banned group per month.

“He received Rs200,000 which cost the lives of hundreds of people who were martyred. He sold his [own] brothers for this,” the IG added.

The top cop further revealed that the suspect dropped off the suicide bomber at the Pir Zakori bridge.

“After the blast occurred, he contacted his handler named Junaid and informed him about the success of the operation via Telegram,” he stated.

While the police already knew that Jamaatul Ahrar was involved in the blast, the suspect was the “missing link” who acted as a local facilitator.

The police inspector general said that Muhammad Wali was also involved in other incidents.

In Feb 2024, the suspect handed a pistol to a person from Jamaatul Ahrar named Saifullah in Lahore to target a member of the Ahmadiyya community, the KP IG said.

He targeted a priest at Peshawar’s Jameel Chowk in Jan 2022, he added.

According to Gandapur, social media played a key role in such incidents, adding that “Fitna al Khawarij and other extremist organisations use social media to brainwash and radicalise people”.

In July, the government, through an official notification, designated the TTP as Fitna al Khawarij, while mandating all institutions to use the term khariji (outcast) when referring to the perpetrators of terrorist attacks on Pakistan.

Then-KP IG Moazzam Jah Ansari had said in February last year that the suicide bomber was “clad in a police uniform”. He had said that technical evidence and information collected suggested that the blast was the work of TTP’s Jamaatul Ahrar faction.

In March 2023, the KP Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) said the mastermind and the handler of the suicide bomber had been traced, stating that both of them were Afghan nationals.

Then-CTD chief Shaukat Abbas said the suicide bomber was identified only by his alias “Qari” and his handler was identified as Ghaffar aka Salma. He had further confirmed that the attack was carried out by Jamaatul Ahrar.




2

Nations to submit boosted climate plans at COP29: What’s at stake?

Nations have begun setting carbon-cutting targets for the decade ahead, and how ambitious these pledges are could make or break global efforts to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

Nearly 200 countries are supposed to publish updated climate plans by early February, but so far only three have done so.

On Wednesday, the UK became the latest, announcing during the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan that it would raise its target to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

All eyes will be on other big polluters like China, India, and the United States, though future US climate action is unclear following Donald Trump’s election.

Why do they matter?

The world has agreed to try and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but is nowhere near on track.

Above this threshold, scientists say humanity risks disastrous consequences from volatile weather to major ecological “tipping points” at land and sea.

Last month, the United Nations warned that even if all existing plans are implemented in full, temperatures would rise 2.6°C by the century’s end, a catastrophic outcome.

The UN says the next round of climate plans must show a “quantum leap” in ambition to avert the worst.

The G20 — which accounts for 77 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions — is under particular pressure to step up.

Early movers

Just before COP29 opened in Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates announced a 47pc reduction in emissions by 2035 compared with 2019 in its updated climate plan.

Observers said the roadmap failed to account for exported emissions —including those from its sales of crude oil abroad.

Next year’s UN climate host, Brazil, has partly unveiled its plan, increasing its emissions reduction target from a 59pc cut by 2035, from 2005 levels, to a 67pc reduction.

It is expected to unveil a more complete plan during COP29.

Plans from other major emitters, like the European Union and China, are not expected until next year.

And the current US government could soon outline Washington’s new pledge, despite questions over Trump following through once in office.

David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, said it would help guide American cities, states and businesses wishing to continue climate action under Trump.

“It also sends an important signal internationally, a set of benchmarks for what the US ought to do,” he added.

What do countries need to do?

By signing the Paris accord, nearly 200 nations agreed to halt rising temperatures “well below 2°C” and strive for the safer goal of 1.5°C.

But it did not prescribe how to get there.

The deal left it up to countries to voluntarily chart their own plans and targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

These include emission reduction targets and measures to achieve them, such as rolling out renewable energy, electrifying transport, and ending deforestation.

There is no set template for countries to follow but richer countries —historically the largest emitters — have a responsibility to pledge the deepest emission cuts.

The plans must be reviewed every five years, with each update supposed to be more ambitious than the last. This time around countries are expected to improve their 2030 targets and outline economy-wide action they will take to 2035.

What’s the aim?

An agreement at last year’s COP28 climate summit “encouraged” countries to come forward with plans aligned with halting warming to 1.5°C.

To have a hope of meeting that goal, emissions must be slashed 42pc by 2030 and 57pc by 2035, the UN’s Environment Programme said last month.

Currently, however, emissions are continuing to rise.

Keeping 1.5°C on track would require a collective effort “only ever seen following a global conflict”, it added.

Without pulling together “on a scale and pace never seen before… the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.

The big moment for assessing progress towards the 1.5°C goal comes at a crunch COP30 climate summit in Brazil next year.

What about fossil fuels?

Scientists and the International Energy Agency have said that developing new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with halting warming to 1.5°C.

But many fossil fuel-producing countries argue that new oil and gas projects will be needed as the world transitions to net zero emissions.

Countries are under pressure to outline in their updated plans how they intend to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, something all nations agreed on at last year’s COP.


Header image: This picture taken on November 12 shows a wind turbine at the lignite-fired power station operated by German energy giant RWE near Neurath, western Germany. — AFP




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Crisis-hit Germany headed for Feb 23 snap election

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (left) shakes hands with the parliamentary leader of the Greens, Katharina Droege, at the Bellevue Presidential Palace in Berlin, on Tuesday.—Reuters

BERLIN: Germany is headed for snap elections on February 23, the main parties agreed on Tuesday, aiming to form a stable government after Chan­cellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed last week.

The country’s two biggest parties agreed on the early timetable, which will see centre-left leader Scholz seek a vote of confidence on December 16, said the parliamentary leader of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), Rolf Muetzenich.

This would pave the way for the February vote in a compromise hammered out with the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies CSU.

The agreement seeks to quickly restore political stability at a time when Europe’s biggest economy is set to shrink for a second year in a row and amid heightened geopolitical volatility, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

As per agreement between two biggest parties, Chancellor Scholz will seek trust vote on Dec 16

The election date would mean Germany will be ruled by a lame-duck chancellor and stuck in the middle of its campaign period when Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on January 20.

Embattled Scholz, who wants to run again despite poor poll ratings, initially suggested an election in late March but came under heavy pressure from all other parties to speed up the process.

The CDU is riding high in the polls and its leader Friedrich Merz had pushed strongly for an election as early as possible — a demand backed by two thirds of voters, according to a recent survey.

“We don’t have unlimited time to elect a new government in Germany, regardless of who leads it… because the world around us is not waiting,” Merz said on Tuesday.

“It’s not as if everyone is holding their breath and watching Germany in fascination, as decisions are taken in Europe, Asia and the United States.

“The world expects a Germany that is capable of taking action.”

Winter election campaign

The February 23 date would force politicians to run their campaigns in the dark and cold of winter, when voters will be less enthusiastic to flock to outdoor events than during the usual summer campaign seasons.

Scholz is expected to lose the confidence vote in the lower house of parliament, after which President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag.

Elections have to be held within 60 days of the dissolution.

Scholz took office in late 2021, taking over from the CDU’s Angela Merkel, in a three-way coalition with the left-leaning Greens and the liberal and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

But mounting differences over economic and fiscal policy came to a head last week when Scholz fired the rebellious FDP finance minister Christian Linder, prompting the small party to leave the government.

Since then, Scholz’s SPD and the Greens have carried on in a minority government that would need opposition support to pass any laws — something the CDU/CSU had rejected in the absence of clarity on an election date.

Future scenarios

Scholz’s coalition marked the first time a tripartite alliance has ruled at the federal level, and it may not be the last, given Germany’s increasingly fragmented political party landscape.

Fears about immigration have driven the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. It is now polling at close to 20 per cent, but other parties have pledged to shun it as a coalition partner.

The latest polls put the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance firmly in the lead at 32pc.

To win a majority, however, the conservatives would likely need the future backing of the SPD, which is currently polling at 15.5pc, in a so-called grand coalition, plus a third party.

Contenders for that spot, according to current polling, would be either the FDP, with five percent support, or possibly the Greens, who are polling at 11pc.

Lindner, who has said he wants to be finance minister again, on Tuesday welcomed the date for new elections, saying:“Happily we now have clarity on this question.” He earlier said that he thought Merz “will almost certainly be the next chancellor of Ger­many. The only question is: Who will chancellor Merz govern with?”

Published in Dawn, November 13th, 2024




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26 die as bus plunges into Indus in Diamer

LOCALS, police personnel and rescue workers gather around the site where a Chakwal-bound bus plunged into the Indus.—Dawn

GILGIT: Twenty-six pe­o­ple, part of a wedding party, drowned after their bus plunged into the Indus River in Diamer district of Gilgit-Baltistan on Tues­day.

Diamer SSP Sher Khan said that the bus, coming from Astore district of GB, was part of a wedding procession heading towards Punjab’s Chakwal district.

It plunged into the river at Telchi bridge at 1pm after the driver reportedly lost control due to speeding.

According to officials, 27 people were on the bus at the time of the accident. Rescuers recovered 13 bodies from the river while the bride was rescued in injured condition and moved to the RHQ Hospital in Gilgit, where she succumbed to her injuries.

The remaining 12 missing persons have been presumed dead. However, the search for them was ongoing despite the freezing temperature, officials said.

Victims were part of wedding party going from Astore to Chakwal

Among the victims, 19 belonged to Astore, while four, including the groom, were from Chakwal.

The Diamer deputy commissioner and superintendent supervised the rescue operation in which five local divers and two boats took part. The bus’ wreckage was pulled out of the river with the help of a crane.

The search for missing persons will be expanded to other areas along the river today (Wednesday), according to officials.

Police have appealed to the population along the river to keep searching for the dead bodies.

According to GB government spokesperson Faizullah Faraq, the contractors working on the Diamer Bhasha Dam, which is being built near the region, have also been mobilised to aid in search activities near their camps.

Authorities have also requested the navy to send its divers to help in the search operation, APP reported while quoting Mr Faraq.

Published in Dawn, November 13th, 2024




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