s: 6 Weird House Smells: Which Ones Are Concerning? By www.nar.realtor Published On :: Mon, 22 Jul 2024 14:43:54 +0000 6 Weird House Smells: Which Ones Are Concerning? Find out when an unusual odor may be a sign of an urgent property issue. Remodeling, Design & Architecture Full Article
s: WSL highlights: Man Utd held by Aston Villa By www.bbc.com Published On :: Mon, 11 Nov 2024 00:02:23 GMT Watch highlights as undefeated Manchester United are held to a 0-0 draw by Aston Villa in the WSL. Full Article
s: Deals: M2 MacBook Air with 16GB RAM for $749.99 ($250 Off!) By osxdaily.com Published On :: Sun, 10 Nov 2024 19:22:24 +0000 Amazon is selling the M2 MacBook Air 13″ model with 16GB RAM for just $749.99, taking $250 off the $999 retail price from Apple. Like many great Amazon deals, they tend to shift quickly, so if you’ve been thinking of getting a 16GB model MacBook Air now might be the time. To get the deal ... Read More Full Article Deals deal deals
s: Best early Black Friday MacBook deals: Lowest-ever prices on top models By www.businessinsider.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 18:50:38 +0000 The best early Black Friday MacBook deals include all-time low prices on the latest MacBook Air models. Full Article Deals (Reviews) Reviews Black Friday & Cyber Monday (Reviews) Tech (Reviews) black-friday cyber-monday insider-picks ip-deals deals insider-reviews product-card black-friday-2024
s: Beyond Labels and Agendas: Research Teachers need to Know about Phonics and Phonological Awareness By www.readingrockets.org Published On :: Tue, 10 Jan 2023 16:16:51 EST This article describes the current findings on phonics and phonological awareness instruction. It uses a question & answer format to explore 10 common questions that teachers ask about teaching phonics and phonemic awareness. Here are a few key questions addressed in the article: What are phonics and phonemic awareness? Should phonemic awareness be paired with print and taught together? Should phonological awareness be coordinated with phonics instruction? What is the best sequence for teaching phonics? Full Article
s: Beyond Skills: Unlocking the Full Potential of Data Scientists By www.oreilly.com Published On :: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 10:25:04 +0000 Modern organizations regard data as a strategic asset that drives efficiency, enhances decision making, and creates new value for customers. Across the organization—product management, marketing, operations, finance, and more—teams are overflowing with ideas on how data can elevate the business. To bring these ideas to life, companies are eagerly hiring data scientists for their technical […] Full Article Data Data science Data-Driven Business Research
s: Rainforest Café fans: don't miss this Empire State Building pop-up By boingboing.net Published On :: Tue, 01 Oct 2024 17:45:00 +0000 Earlier this year on April Fools' Day, the Empire State Building announced that they would be opening at a Rainforest Café on the iconic building's 86th floor observatory. If you got your hopes up just to find out it was all an April Fools' joke, rejoice, because now the joke is about to become reality. — Read the rest The post Rainforest Café fans: don't miss this Empire State Building pop-up appeared first on Boing Boing. Full Article Post all of your jungle-themed restaurant dreams are coming true April Fools Day joke turns into reality Empire State Building pop-ups Rainforest Cafe
s: Fresh Faces, New Perspectives: Diversity Among New REALTORS® in 2024 By www.nar.realtor Published On :: Wed, 14 Aug 2024 17:57:57 +0000 Diversity Among New REALTORS® in 2024 A notable highlight of the findings in the 2024 NAR Member Profile is that new NAR members are more diverse than their experienced counterparts. By: Amethyst Marroquin Full Article
s: From Savings to Student Loans: The Financial Realities of Single Female Home Buyers By www.nar.realtor Published On :: Tue, 20 Aug 2024 13:30:10 +0000 Financial Realities for Single Female Home Buyers Examining the different ways single female home buyers approach buying a home and the challenges they face. By: Amethyst Marroquin Demographic Groups, Working With Buyers, Student Loan Debt Full Article
s: Watching the Corners: On Future-Proofing Your Passion By www.43folders.com Published On :: Tue, 18 May 2010 00:59:56 +0000 On May 16, 2010, at 10:02 AM, "Xx" wrote: You mentioned you gave a talk at Rutgers about future proofing your passion. Is this available as a podcast? I'd love to listen! This poor kid emailed me to ask a really simple question. And I went and saddled him with the world's most circuitously long-winded answer. Surprise, surprise. Hey, Xx, Thanks for the note, man. No I'm sorry its not up as audio AFAIK. FWIW, it's a talk I'm asked to do more often lately so I wouldn't be surprised if it turns up sooner or later. Since you were kind enough to ask, the talk—which comes out super different each time I do it— consists of a discursive mishmash of advice I wish I'd had the ears to hear in the year or five after graduating from college: primarily, that we never end up anywhere near where we'd expected, and that most of us would have been a lot happier a lot faster if we'd realized that we were often obsessing over the wrong things—starting with how much the world should care about our major. ("Liberal Arts," with a concentration in [ugh] "Cultural Studies," thanks.) The talk started as a way to encourage students to learn enough about what they care about that any temporary derails and side roads wouldn't scare their horses too badly. But, today, I see it as something a lot bigger that's demonstrably useful to anyone who hopes to survive, evolve, and thrive in this insane world. A handful of bits I'm (obviously) still synthesizing into something notionally cohesive: My Kingdom for Some Context! For myself, I wish I'd known the value of developing early expertise in interesting new skills around emerging technologies (rather than just iteratively pseudo-honing the 202-level skills I thought I "understood"). Alongside that, I wish I'd learned to embrace the non-douchier aspects of building awesome human relationships (as against "networking" in the service of landing some straight job that, as with most hungry young people, locked me into a carpeted prison of monkey work at the worst time possible). Also how I wish I'd paid more attention to events, contexts, relationships, and change that were happening outside my immediate world —rather than becoming, say, the undisputed master of fretting about status, salary, and whether I was "a success" who had "arrived". Hint: I was not a "success," and I had not, by any stretch, "arrived." To my mind, "success" in the real world is much more the equivalent of achieving a new personal best; it's not about whether you won the "Springtime in Springfield SunnyD®/Q105™ 5k FunRun for Entitilitus," and got a little ribbon with a gold crest on it. Truly, pretty much anyone who feels they've "arrived" anyplace is about to learn a) how much more they could be doing outside the narrowness of an often superficial ambition and b) the surprising number of things they had to give away through the opportunity costs and trade-offs that lead up to every theoretical milestone. It's a real goddamned thistle, and it's more than a little depressing. Do You Still Really Want to be a Fireman? [N.B.: I really hope you're taking bathroom breaks here, Xx] Related, I think this is about how being an adult is not only unbelievably complicated in ways that you can't begin to imagine—that it's frequently defined by impossible decisions and non-stop layers of "hypocrisy"—but that there's an invisible but entirely real risk to doggedly chasing the theoretically laudable notion of "following your dream." Especially if it's a dream you first had while sleeping on Star Wars sheets in a racecar bed. Not because it's a bad idea to want things or to have ambitions. Quite the opposite. More because, for a lot of us, the "dreams" of youth turn out to be half-finished blueprints for wax wings. And not particularly flattering ones at that. By starting adult life with an autistically explicit "goal" that's never been tested against any kind of real-world experience or reality-in-context, we can paradoxically miss a thousand more useful, lucrative, or organic opportunities that just…what?…pop up. Often these are one-time chances to do amazing and even unique things—opportunities that many of us continue to reject out of hand because it's "not what we do." It took me a full decade to learn to embrace the unfamiliar gifts that kismet loves to deliver on our busiest and most stressful days, and which gifts might (maybe/maybe not) even end up bringing the real-life, non-racecar-bed, now me a big step closer to something that's 1000 times more interesting than a hollow, ten-year-old caricature of "what I wanna be when I grow up." Finding Your "Old Butcher" Also related, it strikes me that the indisputable wealth of information and options that are provided by the web often comes with a harrowing hidden tradeoff. While we can certainly learn a lot on our own and become (what feels like) an instant expert on any topic in an afternoon, we usually do so in the absence of a mentor and outside the context of applying expertise to solve actual problems. In my opinion, a cadet should have to survive more than a few Kobayashi Maru scenarios before he gets to declare himself, "Captain." Call it a guru, a wizard, an old butcher, or what have you, the mad echo chamber of a young mind often benefits from the dampening influence of an experienced grownup who can help you understand things that raw data, wikipedia entries, and lists of tips and tricks can't and wont ever do. We benefit from a hand on the back and a gentle voice, reminding us: "Try not to obsess over implementation until you really understand the problem," or "Worry more about relationships than org charts or follower counts," or "Don't quit looking after you've found that first data point," or—my favorite— "Spend less time fantasizing about 'success' and way more time making really cool mistakes." Conversely, though, I think this means that everything we think we know, as well as all the fancy advice that gets thrown around—absolutely including the material you're reading now—is the product of what one person knows and what another person has the ears to hear. For us. For now. For who really knows what. But it is a transaction that takes place in a very specific time and within the bounds of a set of "known" "facts." So, fair warning, doing your own due diligence never hurts. What's Almost Not Impossible? [N.B.: I swear to God this ends at some point, Xx] One big pattern for "future-proofing" your passion? Keep your eyes open and your heart even "opener." And, be more than simply tolerant of the notion of change—sure, take it as read that nothing is ever fixed in place for more than a little while. But, to the extent that your sanity can bear it, always keep an eye on the corners, the edges, and especially learn to watch for those infinitesimally tiny figures starting to shuffle around near the horizon. Because a lot of the things that seem ridiculously small and inconsequential right now will eventually cast a shadow that people will be chasing for decades. It's just that we're never sure which tiny figure that will turn out to be. So, yeah. It really is true that no one but you cares about your major. But, trust me: everybody is interested in the person who repeatedly notices the things that are about to stop being impossible. Be the curious one who soaks in all that "irrelevant" stuff. And, even as you stay heads-down on the "now" projects that keep the lights on, remember that the guy who invented those lights made hundreds of "failed" lightbulbs before fundamentally upending the way we think about time, family, industry, and the role of technology in how we live and work. But, yes, first he "failed" a lot a lot at something which more than a few of his contemporaries thought was pointless in the first place. Ask: What's out there right now that's about to stop being impossible? Where will it happen first? Who will (most loudly and erroneously) declare it's total bullshit? Who will mostly get it right—but possibly too early? Who will figure out what it means to our grandkids? Who will figure out how to put it in everyone's front pocket for a quarter? Y'know who? I'll tell you who: practically anybody BUT that guy in the racecar bed who wants to talk about his major. Important: Merlin's Advice is Only Future-Proof to 10 Meters A few years back, most watch manufacturers decided to come clean and stop categorically declaring that their timepieces were "waterproof." Instead, today, the more credible vendors admit their product is merely "water-resistant"—and, even then, they'll only guarantee the underwater functionality at so many meters, and for so long, and under thus and such conditions. Truthfully, the same applies here. Nothing can actually "future-proof" anything. Anyone who claims to know the future is either a madman, a charlatan, or, often as not, both. Thing is, regardless of the passions (or goals or values or priorities or whatever) that we hope to protect or defend, we'd all do well to remember that it is still ultimately OUR passion that's at stake. That means we're the only one responsible for seeing that its functional components survive and adapt in a world in which each one of us has just north of zero control. If we embrace the fact that no one can or should ever care about the health of our passions as much as we do, the practical decisions that help ensure Our Good Thing stays alive can become as "simple" as a handful of proven patterns—work hard, stay awake, fail well, hang with smart people, shed bullshit, say "maybe," focus on action, and always always commit yourself to a bracing daily mixture of all the courage, honesty, and information you need to do something awesome—discover whatever it'll take to keep your nose on the side of the ocean where the fresh air lives. This is huge. Anything else? Yeah. Drink lots of water, play with your kid every chance you get, and quit Facebook today. No, really, do it. Thanks again for the note, Xx, and sorry for the novella. I'll ping you if the audio ever turns up. Til then, forget your major, and break a leg! yr internet pal, /m ”Watching the Corners: On Future-Proofing Your Passion” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on May 18, 2010. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?" Full Article Careers Knowledge Workers world of work
s: My Faith in Nerds: Stronger Than Any Gelatinous Cube By www.43folders.com Published On :: Fri, 10 Sep 2010 20:01:57 +0000 dConstruct 2010: Merlin Mann - "Kerning, Orgasms & Those Goddamned Japanese Toothpicks" (NSFW) ME - Kerning, Orgasms And Those Goddamned Japanese Toothpicks on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it Let's be honest. I don't go...mmmm...places very often. I sit in this chair. I go to the Safeway with my daughter. Sometimes, I take the train downtown to get a haircut. I check the mail. But, by and large, like most nerds, I'm without question, a bit of a shut-in. Which makes it more than a little ironic that my first trip off the North American continent brought me all the way to Brighton, England's wonderful dConstruct Conference. Which wonderful conference placed me inside a very royal complex, alone on a very large stage, 90 seconds after being informed I'd better be entertaining, because I'd be conducting my oration on the same spot where, a scant 36 years earlier, ABBA had become international stars by singing an up-tempo number about giving up. So, y'know. No pressure. Commanded to this location by two of my web heroes, I was told I could speak about whatever I wanted. So, wow, to quote the ladies of ABBA, how could I ever refuse? Thus, I stood on that stage for over 35 minutes, rambling to 800 talented, creative people about Dungeons & Dragons, japanese toothpicks, torrenting Photoshop, as well as what I used to find myself doing after a long evening of shooting mutants in Stargate.1 But, mostly? Yes. Mostly, I stood on a stage thousands of miles from the chair from which I barely move, and I told a lot of really smart people that they were nerds. I also told them they should get out more. I swear: it made sense at the time. Some Serious Talent My talk about the challenges and opportunities of being a giant nerd seemed well received. Honestly, I'm very happy with how it turned out. But--oh, brother--was I ever up against some heavy hitters. Serious Lou Gehrig shit. I'll leave it to other, more eloquent folks to tell you what a wonderful day this was. But I will very much suggest you learn this for yourself by listening to the audio of the fantastic talks. Because every one of them is a corker. Additionally, like I said, Tom Coates put on one of the loveliest slide decks it's ever been my pleasure to see (56MB PDF). Great speakers, great hosts, wonderful attendees (who aren't above buying a yank a pint [thanks, everybody]). And, Thanks, dConstruct I have to admit, I'm kind of over conferences as a thing, which makes it even more crazy when I go to one, and it blows me out of the water with the care and quality of the event, the speakers, and the attendees. dConstruct was absolutely one of those blown-out-of-the-water events. (photo: happy.apple) As I learned over and over again--yes, like me--these folks are nerds. But, brother are they ever talented nerds who care and care. Which I just love so much. I'll take a nerdy bunch of fontdorks and cellists over a splashy mega-conference full of VC pitches and skanks pushing free Red Bull anytime. Anytime. dConstruct was simply a top-notch operation from end-to-end, and I'm insanely grateful that I was invited to participate. Thanks, Clearleft. And, you, the reader? If you get the chance next time, go. Heck, I might even leave this chair and go there, myself. Maybe. I suppose when Dr. Who's over, I could just let these 20-sided dice decide for me. Lemme see...what's my Armor Class and Hit Points...? Listen for Yourself2 dConstruct Podcast MARTY NEUMEIER - The Designful Company The Designful Company on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it BRENDAN DAWES - Boil, Simmer, Reduce Boil, Simmer, Reduce on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it DAVID MCCANDLESS - Information Is Beautiful Information Is Beautiful on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it SAMANTHA WARREN - The Power and Beauty of Typography The Power and Beauty of Typography on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it JOHN GRUBER - The Auteur Theory Of Design The Auteur Theory Of Design on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it HANNAH DONOVAN - Jam Session: What Improvisation Can Teach Us About Design Jam Session: What Improvisation Can Teach Us About Design on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it JAMES BRIDLE - The Value Of Ruins The Value Of Ruins on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it TOM COATES - Everything The Network Touches Everything The Network Touches on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it Kerning, Orgasms And Those Goddamned Japanese Toothpicks ME - Kerning, Orgasms And Those Goddamned Japanese Toothpicks on Huffduffer Download the audio | Huffduff it Hint: Number Three. ↩ Code for these was stolen wholesale from the dConstruct site. Jeremy, et al - don't hesitate to tell me if that's a problem.Srsly. ↩ ”My Faith in Nerds: Stronger Than Any Gelatinous Cube” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on September 10, 2010. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?" Full Article dConstruct Geeks Knowledge Workers Nerds Speaking
s: OOPS: SNL Tried To Help Kamala… But Boosted TRUMP Instead (VIDEO) By clashdaily.com Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 10:40:07 +0000 It was supposed to be a push to help her over the finish line. It ended up giving Trump a free shot with their audience instead. The post OOPS: SNL Tried To Help Kamala… But Boosted TRUMP Instead (VIDEO) appeared first on Clash Daily. Full Article Videos
s: TRUMP TRIUMPHS: Victory Speech As He Completes The YUGE Comeback By clashdaily.com Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2024 13:12:14 +0000 Trump asked the question: are you better now than when I was in office? America's answer could not have been more clear. The post TRUMP TRIUMPHS: Victory Speech As He Completes The YUGE Comeback appeared first on Clash Daily. Full Article Videos
s: YIKES: Kamala’s Failed Campaign Finished DEEP In Debt — Here’s The 411 By clashdaily.com Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2024 09:47:09 +0000 It was just a couple of weeks ago that the media was bragging about Kamala's HUGE fundraising haul. The post YIKES: Kamala’s Failed Campaign Finished DEEP In Debt — Here’s The 411 appeared first on Clash Daily. Full Article News Clash
s: GLORIOUS: Scott Jennings Gets Van Jones To Cry ‘Uncle’ Live On CNN By clashdaily.com Published On :: Mon, 11 Nov 2024 11:15:04 +0000 You know it's bad when you give the Democrats a whoopin and the corprate media clowns have no choice but to concede your point. The post GLORIOUS: Scott Jennings Gets Van Jones To Cry ‘Uncle’ Live On CNN appeared first on Clash Daily. Full Article Videos
s: OOPS: Planned Parenthood Sounds Alarm As Lefties Weaponize Abstinence By clashdaily.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 10:30:26 +0000 Without a consequence-free hook-up culture, Planned Parenthood's business model collapses. The left's response to Trump's election is an existential threat... to itself! The post OOPS: Planned Parenthood Sounds Alarm As Lefties Weaponize Abstinence appeared first on Clash Daily. Full Article News Clash
s: Trump's New Chief of Staff Susie Wiles Discloses His Day One Plans: Report By www.westernjournal.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 14:59:28 +0000 President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term by putting pieces of his first one back in place, according to incoming White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. Wiles made […] The post Trump's New Chief of Staff Susie Wiles Discloses His Day One Plans: Report appeared first on The Western Journal. Full Article News 2024 election Donald Trump Executive order Trump administration U.S. News
s: Sport | It's been a long walk to Bafana for Sage Stephens: 'To have your first call up at 33 is special' By www.news24.com Published On :: Tuesday Nov 12 2024 05:00:32 With some of its infrastructure decaying and no premier division club using it, the somewhat abandoned Dobsonville Stadium offered the perfect setting for Sage Stephens to take his first steps as a Bafana Bafana player at the ripe age of 33. Full Article
s: Sport | Key dying minutes of Tests: Boks have been demons, England disasters By www.news24.com Published On :: Tuesday Nov 12 2024 10:06:14 In his latest Rucking with Rob newsletter, Rob Houwing argues that for England to have any hopes of beating the Springboks, they'll have to be on the ball in the final stages. Full Article
s: Sport | Boks: Why tour-closing Test seems best ‘youth showcase’ opportunity By www.news24.com Published On :: Monday Jan 01 0001 00:00:00 Late injection Johan Grobbelaar may find himself more than simply an “extra” on the Bok tour, writes Rob Houwing. Full Article
s: Sport | Springbok injuries: Sacha on the mend, doubt remains over Kitshoff future By www.news24.com Published On :: Wednesday Nov 13 2024 09:30:19 Springbok team doctor Jerome Mampane says that injured utility back Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is recovering well. Full Article
s: Inside the US: Muslim Brotherhood Member Calls for Jihadist Terrorism Worldwide By cynthiafarahat.com Published On :: Mon, 28 Nov 2022 07:18:19 +0000 Originally published in Gatestone Institute on Nov. 25, 2022 By Cynthia Farahat Bahgat Saber, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, operates from his New York apartment and often streams live videos from Times Square. During his multi-hour videos, Saber routinely incites terrorism, assassinations, kidnapping and torture in an extremely graphic manner. The calls for violence […] Full Article Featured Articles
s: Russia–China defence and security relations: Insights from the expert community By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 13:22:13 +0000 Russia–China defence and security relations: Insights from the expert community 13 September 2022 — 3:00PM TO 4:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 31 August 2022 Online Experts share insights on Russia–China military, defence, and security relations. In the defence and security realms, Russia–China relations resemble more pragmatic cooperation based on shared, calculated interests than an alliance. This event presents and discusses key findings from a recent expert survey conducted by Chatham House with the aim to gather insights on Russia–China military, defence, and security relations. Survey responses helped identify areas of bilateral cooperation but also crucial friction points and obstacles that prevent the relationship from developing further, as well as policy pathways for the West. Full Article
s: China Party Congress: Xi’s political blueprint By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 10:45:51 +0000 China Party Congress: Xi’s political blueprint The World Today rescobales.drupal 28 September 2022 In the second of her three-part series on the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Yu Jie outlines two key policy themes we can expect Xi to define: ‘common prosperity’ and ‘self-reliance’. What can we expect from the Party Congress? In mid-October five years ago, the 19th Party Congress opened with Xi Jinping delivering a political report lasting three-and-a-half hours. He will repeat the performance on October 16, the opening day of this year’s 20th Party congress. Bland as its name may be, this political report is one of the Party Congress’s core items of business. It remains the most authoritative public account of the Chinese Communist Party’s path on all major policy fronts, containing a laundry list of policies undertaken by the outgoing Central Committee in the past five years, while putting forward guidance for future policy. It represents the view of the current Politburo Standing Committee and that of the CCP. The 20th Congress report is a collegial effort and should not be considered Xi’s personal manifesto, nor should it be counted as another of his speeches to his comrades. However, as general-secretary of the party for the past decade, it will most probably reflect many of the elements that Xi has influenced. What are China’s political priorities? No matter how complicated the geopolitics of the world becomes, Xi sticks to the conservative approach that has served his country well for past centuries: that China prioritizes the management of its own affairs. Since the Cold War ended, two recurring themes have dominated the political report: the economy and security. For the 20th session, Xi will use the phrases ‘common prosperity’ as shorthand for the economy and ‘self-reliance’ for security. Xi introduced the slogan ‘common prosperity’ at the start of his third term in August 2021. His aim was to close the income gap, address regional economic inequality and improve social welfare provision. Rebalancing social inequality was seen as essential to avoid the social disruption witnessed in other parts of the world. Xi’s concept of ‘common prosperity’ was influenced by his childhood experiences living in exile in a remote village in Shanxi Province, in northwest China, during the Cultural Revolution. The ensuing upheaval was to prove a tragedy for his family and a disaster for the country. His ambition is to define progress not in terms of producing double-digit growth but in dealing with the long-standing challenge of scarcities across different sections of society to meet ‘people’s ever-growing needs for a better life’. This direction was indicated at the 19th Party Congress by the term ‘shifting the principal contradiction’. What state is the Chinese economy in? Xi may have arrived at the right diagnosis but he has so far failed to find a cure that invokes ‘common prosperity’. After sweeping regulatory measures, the CCP has clamped down on its most successful private companies and spooked investors. While providing 80 per cent of China’s jobs, private enterprises are worried that the ‘common prosperity’ initiative may jeopardize their business. Equally, Beijing’s zero-Covid policy has discouraged much-needed investment and failed to win the hearts and minds of Chinese youth, who have suffered most, both economically and socially. The challenge facing Xi over the next five years will be to manage the financial risks in downsizing China’s property sector while coming out of a rigidly imposed Covid lockdown without reducing economic growth to such an extent that it damages the personal wealth of millions of people. One hopes that Xi’s policies in future will be based on an innovative reading of the first-century phrase ‘seeking truth from facts’ adopted by Mao Zedong and last promoted as the political philosophy of Deng Xiaoping in the Seventies. A healthy market economy is not only essential for China’s development but as the only means of maintaining the party’s legitimacy, something vital for Xi. Does China need more security? China’s weakened export markets and less-friendly relations with the United States have encouraged it to become more self-reliant. Expect an emphasis on greater self-sufficiency in sectors of strategic importance to form a substantial part of this year’s political report. In view of increased international hostility, Xi and his lieutenants have publicly recognized the need to take control of production and supply chains. These supply chains need to become ‘self-determined, self-controlled’ they have said, voicing frustration that the highest value-added elements of the Chinese tech sector remain reliant on overseas suppliers and vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Equally, on food and energy security, Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has exacerbated China’s already fragile food supplies as both countries are vital sources of food imports. Xi has already called for a ‘comprehensive thrift strategy’ to manage China’s food and energy needs. Beijing is equally worried about the increase in oil and commodity prices which is driving up the cost of living. This may push parts of Chinese society out of ‘common prosperity’ and into ‘common poverty’, as it threatens to in some parts of Europe. For the next five years, Xi needs to strike a balance between ‘common prosperity’ and ‘self-reliance’ to mitigate the storms ahead. He cannot afford to lockdown the world’s second largest economy indefinitely. The hope is that the 20th Party congress will bring much-needed course corrections. Read the two further articles in this series: the first provides a guide to why the Chinese Communist Party Congress matters; the third analyses the foreign policy issues likely to be discussed at the congress. Full Article
s: China's Party Congress: a dose of foreign policy realism is needed By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Oct 2022 14:01:32 +0000 China's Party Congress: a dose of foreign policy realism is needed The World Today mhiggins.drupal 11 October 2022 In the final article of three on the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which opens on 16 October, Yu Jie argues that Beijing must show more pragmatism about Taiwan and the West. How important is foreign policy at the congress? The political reports delivered to the delegates of the week-long 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which happens every five years, follow a Marxist-Leninist formula. Economics and the means of production form the base, while politics and society fill in the superstructure. We can expect sections on the work of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), ideological discussion, economics, domestic politics, foreign affairs, cultural reform and social developments. Usually, the report prioritizes big domestic political issues. The political report typically sheds some light on the status of, and relationships between, senior party members. It can also provide insights into the political fortunes of various interest groups. The report acts as a summary of the party’s achievements and its plans – expressed as the lowest common denominator of consensus between competing factions. The congress will address foreign affairs issues with long-lasting implications for the rest of the world This year’s congress should be no different, and the political reshuffle that takes place is likely to signal how Beijing intends to rise to the many challenges at home and abroad. Given China’s growing power and its fraught relationship with the West, this year’s congress is expected to feature serious discussion on weighty foreign affairs issues affecting Beijing, and which will have long-lasting implications for the rest of the world. Which geopolitical issues will be priorities? When it comes to foreign affairs, China’s priorities rarely change. The CCP seeks to create a stable external environment to foster its domestic economic development. This conservative maxim was advocated in the 1980s by China’s then-paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, and it will continue to guide Beijing’s relationships after this congress. While we don’t know the exact details of this year’s political report, we can expect discussion on relations with the US-led West, a possible shift in the relationship between Beijing and Moscow, and elaboration on China’s ties with the Global South. Notably, it’s likely that a separate chapter of the political report will see Taiwan treated alongside the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, signalling the party’s commitment to its claims over the contested island. Despite a chorus of nationalistic rhetoric surrounding the issue of Taiwan, Beijing will be careful not to stumble into an international conflict which risks causing colossal damage on all fronts. The choice of language on the so-called ‘Taiwan question’ in this political report will serve as a bellwether as to how, if at all, the party might fundamentally shift its views regarding Taiwan and deviate from the principle of ‘peaceful reunification’, the policy stated at every congress since 1979. How have China’s relations with the West worsened? President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, the first by an American president to the Communist nation, kicked off five decades of relative stability. However, as China’s global influence has grown, so have Washington’s fears. US-China relations, once stable and cooperative, are now volatile and competitive The relationship has transitioned from the cooperation and relative stability that existed under President George W. Bush and President Hu Jintao in the early 2000s, into one characterized by volatility and competition under Xi Jinping, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. These tensions are almost certain to continue in Xi’s likely third term. Elements of China’s relationship with the West, such as cooperation over military and aviation technology, are becoming far more competitive. At the same time, trade and investment, once viewed as strong ties, have been rapidly deteriorating – as seen, for example, by several major publicly listed Chinese state-owned enterprises and large private companies withdrawing from the New York Stock Exchange. Will Beijing stand by the Kremlin despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? At the same time, Beijing’s close relationship with Moscow and its lack of opposition to Russia’s war in Ukraine have put China in an awkward position. The CCP has realized that cooperation with its long-standing ally and neighbour must come with substantial limits to avoid undermining its own political priorities and interests. Russia’s recklessness may spur Xi and the CCP’s senior leadership to minimize the economic, financial and political risks associated with the Kremlin’s pursuit of war against a country aligned with, and supported by, the West. Will China continue to support its regional partners? On its ties with the Global South, Beijing began to rethink its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy gained geopolitical momentum. Regions of Southeast Asia and South Asia received a lot of funding and resources for BRI projects, as seen with Chinese support for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Xi also recently introduced the Global Development and Global Security initiatives, which the political report should flesh out. Beijing is fully aware that it can only prosper if its regional partners prosper Beijing is fully aware that it can only prosper if its regional partners prosper, and it can only achieve resource security and border stability if its southern and western neighbours in Myanmar and Afghanistan cease to fight over land and resources. Chinese foreign policy over the last five years has been a strange combination of high-octane rhetoric and patient pragmatism. To respond to this contradiction, the congress could be used as an opportunity to inject a dose of realism. Read the two further articles in this series: the first is a guide to why the Chinese Communist Party Congress matters; the second discusses the key domestic policy themes that Xi Jinping is expected to outline at this year’s congress. Full Article
s: 20th CCP National Congress: Five issues to watch By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Thu, 13 Oct 2022 10:01:35 +0000 20th CCP National Congress: Five issues to watch Expert comment LJefferson 13 October 2022 Interpreters of the Chinese Communist Party’s tea leaves will be paying close attention to the issues that will shape China’s trajectory for the next five years. Xi Jinping’s expected anointment for an unprecedented third term as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely to generate global headlines when the party’s five-yearly National Congress begins on 16 October. But with that outcome so widely forecast, interpreters of the CCP’s tea leaves will be paying closer attention to a range of more contested – and sometimes byzantine – issues that will shape China’s trajectory for the next five years, and reverberate around the world. These are five key issues to watch out for during Xi’s political report, a dry but authoritative account of the CCP’s policy priorities for the next five years, and the subsequent deliberations over personnel appointments. 1. From market economy to ‘common prosperity’ As the world grapples with the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese economy is entering particularly choppy waters. China is forecast to grow at a slower rate than the rest of Asia for the first time in more than 30 years, according to the World Bank, as the impact of Xi’s COVID zero policies compounds a growing list of structural and cyclical challenges. Xi is under pressure to offer some new prescriptions for the world’s second biggest economy, and he is likely to signal further shifts away from the market economics that propelled Chinese growth for decades toward his vision of ‘common prosperity’. China is forecast to grow at a slower rate than the rest of Asia for the first time in more than 30 years. His ambition is to redefine progress, not in terms of producing double-digit growth, but in tackling long-standing challenges such as demographic decline, social inequality and high property prices – thereby meeting ‘people’s ever-growing needs for a better life’. China’s leader may have arrived at the right diagnosis, but he has so far failed to find measures that deliver common prosperity. He will use the Party Congress to redesign some policy measures, likely putting a stronger focus on the development of rural areas to promote economic dynamism and generate employment opportunities. 2. COVID zero to endure? While most of the world has opened up and learned to live with COVID-19, China is still pursuing a COVID zero policy that requires frequent lockdowns, stringent movement controls and closed borders. This approach has intensified economic pressures, exacerbated high youth unemployment, and is testing the patience of China’s upwardly mobile middle classes. Those not employed by the state have been particularly hard hit and it is difficult to see how China’s economy can start to crank up again until Beijing reduces internal restrictions and reconnects with the world. COVID zero has intensified economic pressures, exacerbated high youth unemployment, and is testing the patience of China’s upwardly mobile middle classes. Xi has championed the COVID zero policy, which Beijing continues to insist is vital to protect vulnerable people and support economic and social stability. So, observers will be playing close attention to his political report for any signs of a possible softening or indications of alternative future pathways for managing the pandemic. But a wholesale shift does not appear to be on the cards. 3. Xi Jinping’s team Sinologists’ enthusiasm for predicting leadership changes in the CCP is not matched by their ability to do so. The party’s roots as a secret organization ensure that it keeps a tight lid on information about top leaders. Observers will be closely following appointments to the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of power for the CCP and China’s supreme decision-making body. These choices will shape China’s future policy trajectory and give some signals about the extent of Xi’s concentration of power and his future plans. The party’s roots as a secret organization ensure that it keeps a tight lid on information about top leaders. Names to watch for possible promotion include Xi allies such as He Lifeng, currently head of the National Development Reform Commission, a key economic planning entity, and Zhang Qingwei, currently the party secretary of Hunan, an important and populous province. As Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, the only woman on the Politburo, reaches the retirement age, there is also likely to be a slot open for her replacement, with Shan Yiqin, the party secretary of Guizhou, one potential option. Tracking the fate of key Xi allies will also indicate how far he has managed to overturn the collective leadership system he inherited in 2012 and how comprehensively the CCP endorses this more centralized approach to governing China. 4. Taiwan After the escalating tensions of the last few months, analysts will be looking for any possible change in tone when Xi speaks about Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as a renegade province. During the past five years, Xi has approached the outside world with a mix of high-octane rhetoric with pragmatism and patience. Full Article
s: India-China relations: Is the Quad the answer? By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Tue, 28 Mar 2023 15:16:51 +0000 India-China relations: Is the Quad the answer? Interview NCapeling 28 March 2023 The threat of China’s military aggression is being felt across the world, but this is a phenomenon India has been contending with for decades. India’s border with China became the site of tense conflict in 2020, which led to India reinvesting in the Quad. Arzan Tarapore discusses key issues from his International Affairs article, such as how India is responding to increased aggression at the border and how a reinvigorated Quad may hold answers to balancing China in the Indo-Pacific. What have India-China relations been like in the past? Relations between India and China have varied over the decades. In the years following World War Two there was some hope they would find common cause in their international outlooks but that was quite quickly extinguished with their border war of 1962. Since then, the two countries have oscillated between detente and tension. It took decades for them to normalize their relations and slowly build trust through several confidence-building agreements. This was a dynamic, iterative process, with incursions prompting India to accelerate its infrastructure development, which in turn probably prompted more incursions by China More recently it seemed the two countries were both willing to set aside their border dispute in order to profit from their burgeoning economic relationship – as, for both, there is no question development and economic growth is the primary national objective. The question has been the extent to which their unresolved sovereignty and security issues undermine those goals as, at the same time, they both began paying more attention to the security of their territorial claims. China in particular matched its explosive economic growth with startling military modernization and assertiveness. Its long-standing military doctrine and terrain advantages means it relies heavily on quality military infrastructure on the Tibetan plateau and it has accelerated the pace of those infrastructure upgrades and expansion. In the 2010s, India belatedly began to improve its own transport infrastructure near the border, which threatened to reduce China’s military advantages. The earlier quiet on the border began to crack and China began launching border incursions with increasing frequency and scale. This was a dynamic, iterative process, with incursions prompting India to accelerate its infrastructure development, which in turn probably prompted more incursions by China. What happened around 2020 to change their relationship? The cycle of competitive security policies on the border reached a tipping point in 2020 with Chinese incursions at multiple points simultaneously in Ladakh, apparently designed to establish a new status quo on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) separating Indian and Chinese-controlled territory. The Indian political leadership played down the incursions but both Indian and Chinese militaries rushed to reinforce their positions near the border. They held multiple rounds of military talks which made halting progress. On 15 June 2020, a skirmish resulted in the loss of 20 Indian troops, and an unknown number of Chinese troops. In the weeks that followed, both sides further reinforced their positions in a scramble to gain positional advantage. How has India responded to China’s increasing military might? The Indian government’s response to the Chinese landgrab was to threaten the entire bilateral relationship. In a reversal of decades of policy, it argued China had demolished the painstakingly constructed confidence-building measures on the border, and so the relationship could not continue as normal until the border crisis was resolved. It imposed new restrictions on Chinese investment in India – even as overall trade continued to increase – and adopted a more assertive diplomatic posture. Strategically, the 2020 border crisis had two major effects. First, it reinforced the Indian proclivity to see its northern borders as the primary threat to Indian national security. India has heavily reinforced the border, reassigning some major formations and making numerous new investments in military capability to manage the threat. The significance of this however is that, in the context of budget scarcity, these military improvements come at the cost of potential increases in India’s capability in the Indian Ocean region – ultimately a more consequential zone of competition in the Indo-Pacific. The Indian government may yet change course and reallocate resources for power projection but, at this stage, I see no evidence of that. The second major strategic effect of the crisis was to unleash Indian cooperation with its partners, especially the US and the reinvigorated Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US. India has generally avoided formal international alliances, and the Quad was in hiatus for years – why has India invested in it now? India had always been mindful not to embrace external partners too closely so as to maintain its freedom of action and to not provoke a Chinese reaction. But since the Ladakh crisis, New Delhi has a newfound willingness to work more closely with the US, Japan, and Australia – because it calculates correctly that these partnerships enhance its freedom to act, and that China has already adopted the aggressive posture India feared. It is important to note however that the border crisis was not the only driver of India’s strategic adjustment. The crisis coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic which highlighted to India the ineffectiveness of existing international institutional arrangements. For New Delhi, then, the twin crises of Ladakh and the pandemic stressed the need for new international arrangements, and the Quad offered the best combination of agility and capability to meet the most pressing challenges of the Indo-Pacific region. What do the Quad partners hope to achieve in their renewed partnership? Beginning in 2021, the Quad assumed far greater significance. The first national leader summits happened – which have since continued at regular intervals – and its members have all agreed to a continually expanding agenda of work. It seeks to provide international public goods, and everything from climate action to telecommunications regulations. Critically, it has limited its security role to some niche and relatively unprovocative areas, such as humanitarian assistance and maritime domain awareness – issues which benefit the Indo-Pacific as a whole and do not intensify security competition. It has certainly eschewed military cooperation. Interestingly, the four Quad countries have also separately accelerated their military cooperation, bilaterally, trilaterally, and even quadrilaterally. But that cooperation lies outside the formal mechanisms of the Quad. What impact will these Quad actions have on Chinese aggression and the Indo-Pacific region? This Quad approach, which I call ‘zone balancing’ in my article, is specifically designed to build the capacity and resilience of regional states, and to not inflame dyadic security competition. The relatively uncompetitive character of these activities helps to deflate Chinese claims that the Quad is an antagonistic new bloc, and to ameliorate southeast Asian states’ concerns over the potential intensification of strategic competition. New Delhi has a newfound willingness to work more closely with the US, Japan, and Australia – because it calculates correctly that these partnerships enhance its freedom to act But the Quad’s agenda is not fixed and not bounded. It has expanded year on year and may continue to extend into new areas. This gives it a degree of flexibility and coercive leverage as Beijing cannot be confident about the Quad’s future direction. This slate of activities has a lot of utility in building the Quad’s regional legitimacy and habits of cooperation among its members. But it conspicuously does not address the region’s most pressing security challenges. It is not, in its current form, equipped to manage the challenge of territorial disputes or aggression. So the Quad will not address India’s unresolved border dispute with China, potential crises over Taiwan, or the South China Sea. I would argue, however, that the four members of the Quad have unparalleled advantages of capacity and geography. With further military cooperation, even outside the formal structures of the Quad, they have the potential to deter Chinese aggression, but that remains subject to their political preferences. Will other countries in different parts of the world adopt similar balancing strategies? Zone balancing could be an attractive strategy for other countries which want to either avoid the costs of hard military balancing, or to not provoke their rivals. It has been used in the past – such as the Marshall Plan during the early Cold War – and I would not be surprised if other countries competing with China, or even China itself, use it. Full Article
s: In conversation with Martin Griffiths: How can a divided world address conflict? By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Mon, 16 Sep 2024 19:52:13 +0000 In conversation with Martin Griffiths: How can a divided world address conflict? 1 October 2024 — 10:00AM TO 11:00AM Anonymous (not verified) 16 September 2024 Chatham House and Online The former United Nations Under-Secretary-General describes how a weakening multilateralism system and dysfunctional political diplomacy can be revitalized by a humanitarian approach. The international community is failing to stop conflict. Despite efforts by international organisations and state actors to resolve or prevent it from breaking out, wars around the world have left millions of people suffering. Unstable governments and global insecurity are contributing to an age of poly-crisis, compounded by growing inequity and impunity.How can a divided world work better to prevent and resolve conflict and reduce the suffering of the civilians affected?Martin Griffiths has spent decades working within the United Nations system and other institutions on conflict resolution and humanitarian action, most recently as Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and the Emergency Relief Coordinator. He worked on peace deals in Indonesia, Spain, Thailand, Myanmar, Darfur, Syria and Yemen and responded to emergencies in Ethiopia, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, Sudan, Turkiye and Gaza and elsewhere. In this discussion, he casts his expertise over the biggest challenges in the world today and assess the prospects for international cooperation on conflict resolution in the future.Key questions to be discussed include:How can a lasting peace be secured in the conflict between Israel and Palestine ?Is the world too fragmented to prevent or resolve conflicts around the world?What role can the United Nations play in today’s geopolitical environment?How can the West and Global South better engage to limit conflict ?Individual membership provides you with the complete Chatham House experience, connecting you with a unique global policy community. Find out more about membership. Full Article
s: International relations: The ‘how not to’ guide By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Oct 2022 14:48:57 +0000 International relations: The ‘how not to’ guide Expert comment NCapeling 11 October 2022 A centenary special issue of International Affairs explores past foreign policy failures to help policymakers avoid future catastrophes. Policy decisions in international relations frequently have a long-lasting effect on the world order, shaping the lives of millions. Often acting under pressure and severe time constraints, decision-makers must rely on their own experience and the best expertise available. And so, despite many striving for a more peaceful and prosperous world, policy failures are all too common. The second of International Affairs’ centenary special issues – devised and guest-edited by Amrita Narlikar and Daniel W. Drezner – is a ‘how not to guide’ for international relations. Focusing on historic failures, 14 experts examine what went wrong, and how policy practitioners and researchers can get it right together. Between theory and outcome fall two ‘shadows’: one of decision-makers not taking advantage of sound academic policy advice – in some cases ignoring it because they think they already know best – and a second of bias in academic analyses and researchers simply erring, or erring on the side of their own self-importance. Between these two, there lies a joint path toward better policies. The special issue provides policymakers with cautionary lessons, transforming well-known cases into a guide of what not to do in international politics. Building on that, the collection also suggests ways forward, including borrowing the medical Hippocratic Oath of ‘do no harm’, which in international relations serves as a cautionary warning against action merely for action’s sake, and then going decidedly beyond this minimum requirement. A series of comics also accompanies the articles, produced in collaboration with Sequential Potential comics. In their introduction, Drezner and Narlikar draw out four overarching factors which increase the likelihood of foreign policy failure – these are a focus on short-term successes, underestimating the power of narratives, hubris, and technocratic bubbles. If academics and policymakers can work together with these careful considerations, perhaps mistakes can avoid being repeated. Richard Toye examines three pivotal moments in the UK’s history – the Munich crisis of 1938, the Suez crisis and war of 1956, and the Iraq war of 2003. He finds that in these cases the failures were over-determined, a consequence of Britain’s relative decline rather than its cause. Daniel W. Drezner reviews two high profile failures of sanction use – United Nations (UN) sanctions on Iraq during the two Gulf wars, and the US re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. In both cases the main goals were not achieved and the costs were great. Drezner highlights ten ‘do’s and don’ts’ for sanctions as a result. Amrita Narlikar shows how the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become an almost perfect example of how not to negotiate, even when taking into account recent limited successes. She identifies three broad categories of bargaining failures and explores the impact of narratives on the course of events, giving a clear list of do’s and don’ts for international negotiation. Harold James also looks at three historic moments, the financial crises in 1931, 1997, and 2008. While responses to the crises initially looked successful, ironically in each case the drive to avoid past mistakes opened the door for the next crisis. Cecilia Emma Sottilotta considers recent disasters in the European Union (EU) – the eurozone crisis and COVID-19 pandemic – and recommends for policymakers to find a middle ground between supranationalism and intergovernmentalism in crisis situations. The growth of Chinese influence is a key issue in international relations today. Various articles in the special issue explain how not to deal with a rising China, coming from different angles. Exploring the US-China relationship, Janice Gross Stein is critical of the narrative around US decline and Chinese growth. The world should look beyond GDP as an indicator of a country’s growth and pay attention to strategic choices made by leaders in both states. Joseph S. Nye Jr also provides a US perspective, arguing that while some historic analogies are misleading, the US should contemplate the cautionary narrative of sleepwalking into World War One when thinking about its relationship with China. Amitabh Mattoo gives a south Asian view, asserting there is a need to understand Chinese policies in the region. Through examining China’s relations with India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka he concludes that because China is adopting aggressive policies in the region, states must start cooperating with like-minded allies. Yuen Foong Khong answers two questions in his paper tackling which ‘how not to’s’ are relevant when learning from history, and whether policymakers are aware of them. His research points to four things to avoid, which he then applies to how the Cold War analogy is used to understand contemporary US-China relations. On the theme of foreign interference, Igor Istomin looks at the Soviet support for Mao Zedong’s Communist Party in the 1920s to 1940s. He argues strongly against interfering with major powers, as short-term gains cannot last. From Iraq and Afghanistan to Somalia and the Balkans, there have been many failed interventions by the West since the end of the Cold War. Stephanie Carvin asserts the overreliance on automated weaponry has allowed supposedly ‘easy wars’ to turn into ‘forever wars’ – and this is not likely to stop. Full Article
s: US midterms: What to expect? By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Fri, 04 Nov 2022 10:51:39 +0000 US midterms: What to expect? Expert comment LJefferson 4 November 2022 The 2022 midterms have a heightened importance with long-term implications for the future of American democracy. US voters will head to the polls on 8 November 2022 to cast their ballots for the midterm elections, which will see 35 of 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for re-election. Midterm elections serve as a benchmark on voter’s approval of the sitting president’s party, but following a turbulent 2020 presidential election, with claims of a stolen election and voter fraud, the midterms have taken on a heightened importance with the processes and results having long-term implications for the future of democracy in the US. When will we see results? While many US voters expect to see results the night of an election, the complex voting process in the US often makes it difficult to ascertain the success of candidates in certain states after the polls close. In Arizona, state laws allow 20 days for election officials to certify results while Nevada allows for additional time to count mail-in ballots following election day. Pennsylvania state laws prevent mail-in ballots from being counted before 7am on election day and the combined effect of counting in-person and mail-in ballots simultaneously, as well as the need to present votes to a state canvassing board could delay official results for weeks, and votes will not be officially certified by the state until 28 November. In Georgia, the presence of a third-party candidate may lead to a run-off election if neither the Democrat or Republican contender receives over 50 per cent of the vote, which would take place on 6 December with results expected soon after. Early results favouring Republican candidates may also differ from the final tally as more mail-in ballots get counted, creating a ‘red mirage’, as the majority of Republican voters are expected to vote in-person. Delays in determining election results may bolster claims made by Republican candidates that election results were fraudulent, especially if races are tight, as delays counting mail-in ballots might cause results to differ over time. Early results favouring Republican candidates may also differ from the final tally as more mail-in ballots get counted, creating a ‘red mirage’, as the majority of Republican voters are expected to vote in-person, as seen in 2020. In the vast majority of elections since World War II, the president’s party has often lost seats in the first midterm elections after taking office. While there have been exceptions and instances of the sitting party avoiding major losses during wartime, such as after the Gulf War and the 9/11 attacks, it’s unlikely Russia’s war in Ukraine will create the same rally around the flag effect. Issues influencing voters There are signs that US support for Ukraine on both sides of the aisle is starting to waver, as evidenced by the now recalled letter by the House Democratic Progressive Caucus pushing for a ceasefire and Republican House Leader, Kevin McCarthy’s recent comments about limiting US financial support for Ukraine. US voters in general are more concerned with domestic issues rather than foreign policy, and both Democrats and Republicans have shaped their messaging around issues that will resonate with voters in key battleground states, with Democrats focusing heavily on abortion and reproductive rights and Republicans pushing the issues of crime and safety. US voters in general are more concerned with domestic issues rather than foreign policy, and both Democrats and Republicans have shaped their messaging around issues that will resonate with voters in key battleground states. Democrats are hoping their focus on reproductive rights will motivate a higher turnout at the polls and have likely been encouraged by a recent referendum in Kansas where voters chose to protect abortion rights in the traditionally conservative state. In 2020, 52 per cent of the electorate in the swing state of Pennsylvania were female, and while not a huge majority, the difference could be enough to push the Democrats ahead. Though the issue of abortion has gained more focus among Democratic voters, with 75 per cent of registered Democrats saying the issue was very important, 92 per cent of Republican voters rank the economy as their top issue. A potential victory by Johnson in Michigan, who has accused Barnes of being soft on crime and has shaped his messaging around growing the economy, may indicate whether Democrats need to reshape their messaging ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The Senate race in Wisconsin, for example, was initially considered one of the Democrat’s most likely prospects for unseating an incumbent Republican senator, following US President Joe Biden’s win in the state in 2020. Despite heavy fundraising from the Democratic party and a campaign visit by former US president Barack Obama, incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is now four points ahead of Democrat contender, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. A potential victory by Johnson, who has accused Barnes of being soft on crime and has shaped his messaging around growing the economy, may indicate whether Democrats need to reshape their messaging ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Threats of political violence The risk of political violence in the US has increased in recent years, with many key officials under threat, as evidenced by the recent attack on US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi’s, husband. A bulletin sent out by US agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, warned of attacks against not only political figures in the US, but also of attacks at locations like polling places, ballot box locations and voter registration sites. The myth of a stolen election Electoral integrity in 2022 has become especially significant, with over 300 candidates who believe the 2020 election was stolen up for election in various races across the United States. The role of governors, secretaries of states and attorneys general (state officials charged with approving election results) has become a key issue in 2022. Proposals to give state legislatures the ability to certify election results, a role typically occupied by state officials, have already been made in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona, all of which have Republican legislature majorities. Electoral integrity in 2022 has become especially significant, with over 300 candidates who believe the 2020 election was stolen up for election in various races across the United States. While these measures have not been successful thus far, a number of election deniers who would have the ability to influence how election results are certified are on the ballot for 2022. In Arizona, for example, Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lakes, and for attorney general, Abe Hamadeh have both been endorsed by Trump and have also supported his claims that the 2020 elections were fraudulent. The Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state, Mark Finchem publicly made calls to decertify Arizona’s electors, and was placed at receiving 49 per cent of votes in a poll conducted by CNN in early October. If Republicans are successful in both the state governor and secretary of state races, the role of the attorney general in certifying the election results in a state Biden closely won in 2020 becomes ever more crucial given their ability to govern how elections are run in the state, as well as their ability to challenge certification in court. Full Article
s: A Tandem Affinity Tag for Two-step Purification under Fully Denaturing Conditions: Application in Ubiquitin Profiling and Protein Complex Identification Combined with in vivoCross-Linking By www.mcponline.org Published On :: 2006-04-01 Christian TagwerkerApr 1, 2006; 5:737-748Research Full Article
s: SNF Dialogues: Social media, social movements and political change By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Wed, 15 Jun 2022 13:02:13 +0000 SNF Dialogues: Social media, social movements and political change 6 July 2022 — 2:30PM TO 3:45PM Anonymous (not verified) 15 June 2022 Online Experts and activists explore how the digital world has changed the nature of social movements and the impact this has on policymaking. From Extinction Rebellion to Black Lives Matter, social movements are increasingly harnessing social media to project their calls for action. This event, convened in partnership with the SNF Dialogues series, will reflect on the value of social media to social movements and the effects of such digital movements on policymakers. Experts and activists from around the world will explore whether social media is an effective tool for social movements or a distraction, the extent to which digital forms of protest incite social change, and finally if this change has an impact on policy decisions. The SNF Dialogues, an initiative of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF), are a series of monthly discussions whose goal is to foster the exchange of ideas, inspire a new way of thinking and acting, and encourage and elevate public discourse across geographic boundaries. The Dialogues discussions are free and open to the public, aiming to bring to light timely questions and developments, share informed reflections and concerns, highlight new data and angles, and present fascinating people, projects and ideas. The Dialogues are curated and moderated by Anna-Kynthia Bousdoukou and are facilitated by the non-profit journalism organization iMEdD (incubator for Media Education and Development). The discussion will be conducted in English with simultaneous interpretation into Greek. If you wish to watch the discussion in Greek, tune in here. Full Article
s: Resetting Africa-Europe relations: From self-deception to economic transformation By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Wed, 16 Oct 2024 10:47:14 +0000 Resetting Africa-Europe relations: From self-deception to economic transformation 28 October 2024 — 12:30PM TO 1:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 16 October 2024 Chatham House and Online Experts assess the status of ties between Africa and Europe in a rapidly changing world, launching a new book that explores how misconceptions in the relationship can harm Africa’s economic agenda. The relationship between Africa and Europe has long been shaped by colonial legacies, power imbalance and shifting geopolitical interests.Almost three years on from the last EU-AU summit in Brussels in February 2022, questions remain over the delivery of headline commitments under the continent-to-continent partnership – ranging from the EU’s Global Gateway infrastructure strategy to wider climate financing promises.As Africa seeks to strengthen its standing on the global stage, marked by the African Union’s upcoming debut at the G20 summit in November, a critical reassessment of these dynamics is needed to examine whether the continent’s relationship with Europe can overcome stigmatized narratives in search of genuine economic benefit.At this event, which launches a new book by Professor Carlos Lopes: The Self-Deception Trap: Exploring the Economic Dimensions of Charity Dependency within Africa-Europe Relations, speakers assess the prospects for a transformative shift towards a more equitable and mutually beneficial Africa-Europe partnership. Full Article
s: The MENA uprisings: Five years on, what role is civil society playing? By www.chathamhouse.org Published On :: Wed, 23 Oct 2024 08:42:13 +0000 The MENA uprisings: Five years on, what role is civil society playing? 31 October 2024 — 2:00PM TO 3:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 23 October 2024 Online Panellists examine the protest movements’ legacies in different context and how civil society continues to work towards positive change. Five years after nation-wide protests in Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Sudan demanded systemic changes and political reforms, the situation remains largely unchanged. In some cases, it has deteriorated. Sudan is facing a humanitarian catastrophe amidst an ongoing civil war. Lebanon is dealing with Israeli aggression amidst a severe economic crisis with little response from the caretaker government. In Iraq and Algeria, relative stability masks the reality of increased suppression of dissent. This preservation of the status quo supports the entrenched political structures that strive to uphold it.The current absence of large-scale street protests in these countries should not be taken as an indication that populations are content with the status quo. The issues that ignited the initial uprisings remain and in many cases have worsened. Despite enormous challenges, activists continue to navigate their systems to survive and instigate change. In the face of increasing difficulties, they are raising awareness of their countries’ predicaments and are finding alternative economic solutions. Additionally they are mobilizing community support, and pushing to voice their disillusionment. All these efforts aim at actively participating in shaping decisions that determines their future.This webinar explores:What has been the impact of the uprisings in Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Sudan?How are civil society and activists contributing to change within their communities?What is the current landscape for civic engagement within the politics, society and economy in these countries?What prospects are there for solidarity and cooperation among civil society actors across these regions and beyond? Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 6 - Tribes of Europe, and the International Women's Rights Agenda at the UN By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 19 Apr 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 7 - Libya's War Economy, and Is the United Nations Still Relevant? By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 04 May 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 8 - Ronan Farrow on Diplomacy By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 17 May 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Mainstreaming Human Rights: From Humanitarian Response to Funding Reconstruction in Syria By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 25 May 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 9 - Digital Subversion in Cyberspace, and Oleg Sentsov's Hunger Strike By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 01 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Unfulfilled Ambitions: the State of Democracy in Africa By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Mon, 04 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Global Trade Landscape Series: US Trade in an Age of Protectionism By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 15 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 10 - Artificial Intelligence in International Affairs, and Women Drivers in Saudi Arabia By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 15 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Bonus Episode - How Can Political Elites Reconnect With Voters? By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 29 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 11 - New Approaches to Peacebuilding, and Gender-Inclusive Growth at the G20 By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Wed, 04 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Global Trade Landscape Series: Is the WTO Still Fit for Purpose? By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 12 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 12 - Trump's Visit to the UK, and Japanese Foreign Policy in Asia By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 12 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 13 - India's Billionaires, and Sexual Exploitation in the UN By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 26 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 14 - Sustainable Energy for Refugees and Australian Foreign Policy By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Fri, 10 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Undercurrents: Episode 15 - Brexit Update, and Corruption in the World of the Global Super-Rich By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Thu, 23 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
s: Cyber Security Series: Securing Elections and Reclaiming Democratic Processes By f1.media.brightcove.com Published On :: Mon, 03 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
