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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : My mother keeps turning water into wine, walking on water and resurrecting from the dead. Is she a witch?




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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : IMAGINE YOU HEARD KIDS ON PHONE TALKING about their difficult reducing MASTURBATION?




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[ Politics ] Open Question : Why are other countries like New Zealand and Australia destroying the virus while America is killing people off to restart the economy?




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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : Atheists, I always thought Roger Daltrey led the WHO, and not this Ted Ross guy. Who is he anyway? What instrument does he play?

What band was he with before?




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[ Politics ] Open Question : When will the democrats be arrested for being trators to SAmerica by conspiring with chine to make trump looik bad?




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[ Engineering ] Open Question : How can I determine data rate of wireless device given this information?

802.11n device 20 MHz band 32 QAM 1/2 coding rate What's formula?




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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : How come there are different writers attributed to the Gospel of Mark.... why would Mark need different people to write his Gospel.?




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The Dutch Elections: How to Lose and Still Shape the Direction of a Country—and Possibly a Continent?

The failure of Geert Wilders’ right-wing, anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) to become the top vote-getter in the Dutch parliamentary elections is being hailed as proof of the limits of anti-Muslim rhetoric and even the “waning” of the appeal of right-wing populism. But as this commentary explores, a closer reading leads one to a more nuanced interpretation of the results and the recognition that Wilders will remain a major force.




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Immigration-Related Policy Changes in the First Two Years of the Trump Administration

In the two years since President Trump entered office, U.S. immigration policy has changed in many ways. Some actions have received significant media attention and public scrutiny, and others have been implemented with little fanfare. This document chronicles these wide-reaching policy changes, covering immigration enforcement, the immigration courts, humanitarian admissions, visa processing, and more.




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Red-Winged Blackbirds Understand Yellow Warbler Alarms

Researchers studying yellow warbler responses to the parasitic cowbird realized that red-winged blackbirds were eavesdropping on the calls and reacting to them, too.

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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The Coronavirus Pandemic Puts Children at Risk of Online Sexual Exploitation

One conversation could keep your kids safe

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com



  • Mind
  • Behavior & Society

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Psychological Trauma Is the Next Crisis for Coronavirus Health Workers

Hero worship alone doesn’t protect frontline clinicians from distress

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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Horses Recognize Pics of Their Keepers

Horses picked out photographs of their current keepers, and even of former keepers whom they had not seen in months, at a rate much better than chance.

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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Born With the Desire to Know the Unknown

America is awash in secrets and conspiracies. Moviegoers are agog over the 2,000-year-old conspiracy theory in "The Da Vinci Code," which suggests that Jesus may not have died celibate. In a conspiracy exactly one order of magnitude smaller, Brad Meltzer's new novel, "The Book of Fate," tells about...




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Science Confirms: You Really Can't Buy Happiness

When Warren Buffett announced last week that he will be giving away more than $30 billion to improve health, nutrition and education, people all over America reflected on his remarkable generosity, pondered all the noble things the gift would achieve and asked themselves what they would do if...




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Iraq War Naysayers May Have Hindsight Bias

Antiwar liberals last week got to savor the four most satisfying words in the English language: "I told you so."




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Disagree About Iraq? You're Not Just Wrong -- You're Evil.

The conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby last week gave Americans a chance to pick at the scab of what has become a favored obsession -- the debate over the motives of the Bush administration in the run-up to the war in Iraq.




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Waging War Through the Rearview Mirror

President Bush said last week that his thinking on the U.S. situation in Iraq was informed by an analogy: the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen. The lack of a sufficient American response to that and other al-Qaeda attacks, Bush said, led to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.




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A Nod to Irresponsibility

Accountability is in the air in Washington. At one end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Paul Wolfowitz is struggling to save his job as president of the World Bank after getting caught arranging a sweetheart deal for his, well, sweetheart. A few blocks down the road, President Bush faces endless questions...




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Confessions Not Always Clad in Iron

In the courts and in Congress, Sen. Larry Craig is fighting to withdraw his guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge that may suggest he tried to solicit sex from a man in June at a Minneapolis airport bathroom. Rather than resign yesterday, as the senator had promised and Republicans had hoped, Craig...




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One Thing We Can't Build Alone in Iraq

When Columbia University sociologist Peter Bearman dived into the world of the white-gloved workers who open the front doors of expensive New York apartment buildings, he found that most people who applied for jobs as doormen never got one. Most doormen, however, had not applied for their jobs.




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The Myth of the Iron Lady

If you consult the online encyclopedia Wikipedia, which is democratically created by Internet users, you will see a pattern emerge in the phrases used to describe the first female leaders of many countries.




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9/11, Iraq and the Desensitization of the Victimized

In the days after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, with the twin towers vanished from Manhattan's skyline, a poem by W.H. Auden could have been the song of a wounded nation. "September 1, 1939," written on the eve of World War II, seemed eerily prescient:




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The Rational Underpinnings of Irrational Anger

"I know how unpopular it is to be seen as helping banks right now, especially when everyone is suffering in part from their bad decisions. I promise you, I get it. But I also know that in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger."




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A Defense of Diversity Statements in Hiring

Recently, Abigail Thompson, a Vice President of the AMS and Professor at UC Davis, wrote a short opinion piece coming out against the use of diversity statements in hiring. As I read her piece, I found myself troubled by some … Continue reading




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Dear first year, this isn’t something you can plan for (Part 3)

In case you want to catch up: here are Parts 1 & 2 of my first-year journey. We like to think that our life stories have happy endings, perhaps that we can carefully partition our lives into fourths of each … Continue reading




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Teaching in the Time of Coronavirus, Part I

Hi all, 2020 has been a complicated year so far, and things are only going to get more complicated as the COVID-19 pandemic. I’ve been thinking a lot about teaching recently, (as I’m the instructor for a class of undergrad … Continue reading




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Borderline Irrelevant: Why Reforming the Dublin Regulation Misses the Point

European policymakers are fixated on reform of the Dublin Regulation, the contentious rules that carve up responsibility for asylum claims between EU states. They see it not only as a long-term prophylactic against future fluctuations in irregular migration, but as a marker of the success or failure of solidarity in Europe overall. Yet rather than doggedly working to salvage Dublin, policymakers need to stop and consider why they regard it as so integral to European cooperation, as this commentary explores.




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Invertir en el vecindario: Cambios en los patrones de migración entre México y Estados Unidos y oportunidades para una cooperación sostenible

La migración entre México y Estados Unidos ha cambiado dramáticamente en los últimos años, pero las políticas y la retórica política en ambos países no se han actualizado a este contexto a la misma velocidad. Este reporte explora esta nueva realidad migratoria y cómo los dos gobiernos podrían trabajar juntos para abordar los desafíos de políticas públicas que tienen en común.




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A Mirror for the Nation? The Changing Profile of Mexican Immigrants in Texas

At this event, experts from MPI and Southern Methodist University’s Texas-Mexico Center offer an overview of immigration trends and key characteristics of highly skilled Mexican immigrant adults at the national level and for Texas, and engage in a discussion on the causes behind the changing trends in immigration and implications for Texas, its economy, and more broadly for the nation.




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A Mirror for the Nation? The Changing Profile of Mexican Immigrants in Texas

At this discussion, experts from MPI and Southern Methodist University’s Texas-Mexico Center offer an overview of trends and key characteristics of highly skilled Mexican adults at the national level and for Texas, including educational levels by legal status and top industries of employment across Texas metro areas. They also discuss the policy implications of these findings.




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Expansion of legal migration opportunities for third-country nationals, particularly in middle- and low-skill sectors, holds potential but should not be oversold as migration management tool, new study cautions

BRUSSELS — While the European Union has called on Member States to expand channels for foreign workers as a way to meet labour market needs and potentially tackle spontaneous migration, they have struggled to deliver on this pledge. To date, policies have focused more on attracting high-skilled workers, but less attention has been paid to admission of low- or middle-skilled nationals. Policymakers would do well not to overestimate the potential of legal channels to reduce irregular migration.




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Immigrant Workers Are Vital to the U.S. Coronavirus Pandemic Response, But Disproportionately Vulnerable

WASHINGTON — Six million immigrant workers are at the frontlines of keeping U.S. residents healthy, safe and fed during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data issued today. While the foreign born represented 17 percent of the 156 million civilians working in 2018, they account for larger shares in pandemic-response frontline occupations: 29 percent of all physicians in the United States, 38 percent of home health aides and 23 percent of retail-store pharmacists, for example.




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Integrating Refugees and Asylum Seekers into the German Economy and Society: Empirical Evidence and Policy Objectives

As the top destination in Europe for asylum seekers in recent years, Germany has rolled out a number of integration policy changes. Based on an early look at how newcomers’ integration is progressing, the report finds the policies have had ambiguous implications. The report also provides insights into the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the asylum seeker and refugee population.




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Stir-fried twice cooked porkbelly with leek and Sichuan black beans

This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Neil Perry. Neil's new book is "Spice Temple."





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Stir-fried water spinach with preserved bean curd - fu yu ong choy

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Tony Tan




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Piri Piri Chicken

It's one that came from the Portuguese colony of Mozambique. Don't let the chili put you off, I've got a two year old daughter who loves this. I used to wonder how the Portuguese got this level of flavour and the trick is, in the marinade, use lemon juice or vinegar. The acid cuts right through and gives a level of authenticity.




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Reduction in Global Myocardial Glucose Metabolism in Subjects With 1-Hour Postload Hyperglycemia and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

OBJECTIVE

Impaired insulin-stimulated myocardial glucose uptake has occurred in patients with type 2 diabetes with or without coronary artery disease. Whether cardiac insulin resistance is present remains uncertain in subjects at risk for type 2 diabetes, such as individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and 1-h postload glucose ≥155 mg/dL during an oral glucose tolerance test (NGT 1-h high). This issue was examined in this study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The myocardial metabolic rate of glucose (MRGlu) was measured by using dynamic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography combined with a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp in 30 volunteers without coronary artery disease. Three groups were studied: 1) those with 1-h postload glucose <155 mg/dL (NGT 1-h low) (n = 10), 2) those with NGT 1-h high (n = 10), 3) and those with IGT (n = 10).

RESULTS

After adjusting for age, sex, and BMI, both subjects with NGT 1-h high (23.7 ± 6.4 mmol/min/100 mg; P = 0.024) and those with IGT (16.4 ± 6.0 mmol/min/100 mg; P < 0.0001) exhibited a significant reduction in global myocardial MRGlu; this value was 32.8 ± 9.7 mmol/min/100 mg in subjects with NGT 1-h low. Univariate correlations showed that MRGlu was positively correlated with insulin-stimulated whole-body glucose disposal (r = 0.441; P = 0.019) and negatively correlated with 1-h (r = –0.422; P = 0.025) and 2-h (r = –0.374; P = 0.05) postload glucose levels, but not with fasting glucose.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that myocardial insulin resistance is an early defect that is already detectable in individuals with dysglycemic conditions associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, such as IGT and NGT 1-h high.




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Genetic Susceptibility Determines {beta}-Cell Function and Fasting Glycemia Trajectories Throughout Childhood: A 12-Year Cohort Study (EarlyBird 76)

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that childhood prediabetes may develop prior to obesity and be associated with relative insulin deficiency. We proposed that the insulin-deficient phenotype is genetically determined and tested this hypothesis by longitudinal modeling of insulin and glucose traits with diabetes risk genotypes in the EarlyBird cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

EarlyBird is a nonintervention prospective cohort study that recruited 307 healthy U.K. children at 5 years of age and followed them throughout childhood. We genotyped 121 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetes risk, identified in the adult population. Association of SNPs with fasting insulin and glucose and HOMA indices of insulin resistance and β-cell function, available from 5 to 16 years of age, were tested. Association analysis with hormones was performed on selected SNPs.

RESULTS

Several candidate loci influenced the course of glycemic and insulin traits, including rs780094 (GCKR), rs4457053 (ZBED3), rs11257655 (CDC123), rs12779790 (CDC123 and CAMK1D), rs1111875 (HHEX), rs7178572 (HMG20A), rs9787485 (NRG3), and rs1535500 (KCNK16). Some of these SNPs interacted with age, the growth hormone–IGF-1 axis, and adrenal and sex steroid activity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that genetic markers influence both elevated and average courses of glycemic traits and β-cell function in children during puberty independently of BMI are a significant step toward early identification of children at risk for diabetes. These findings build on our previous observations that pancreatic β-cell defects predate insulin resistance in the onset of prediabetes. Understanding the mechanisms of interactions among genetic factors, puberty, and weight gain would allow the development of new and earlier disease-management strategies in children.




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Confirming the Bidirectional Nature of the Association Between Severe Hypoglycemic and Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From EXSCEL

OBJECTIVE

We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a post hoc analysis of 14,752 Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) participants, we examined time-dependent associations between SHEs and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), fatal/nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (hACS), hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as time-dependent associations between nonfatal CV events and subsequent SHEs.

RESULTS

SHEs were uncommon and not associated with once-weekly exenatide therapy (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.94–1.36], P = 0.179). In fully adjusted models, SHEs were associated with an increased risk of subsequent ACM (1.83 [1.38–2.42], P < 0.001), CV death (1.60 [1.11–2.30], P = 0.012), and hHF (2.09 [1.37–3.17], P = 0.001), while nonfatal MI (2.02 [1.35–3.01], P = 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.30 [1.25–4.23], P = 0.007), hACS (2.00 [1.39–2.90], P < 0.001), and hHF (3.24 [1.98–5.30], P < 0.001) were all associated with a subsequent increased risk of SHEs. The elevated bidirectional time-dependent hazards linking SHEs and a composite of all CV events were approximately constant over time, with those individuals at dual risk showing higher comorbidity scores compared with those without.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events as well as greater risk of CV events after SHEs, validate a bidirectional relationship between CV events and SHEs in patients with high comorbidity scores.




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Risk Factors for First and Subsequent CVD Events in Type 1 Diabetes: The DCCT/EDIC Study

OBJECTIVE

The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and its observational follow-up Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) demonstrated the dominant role of glycemia, second only to age, as a risk factor for a first cardiovascular event in type 1 diabetes (T1D). We now investigate the association between established risk factors and the total cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, including subsequent (i.e., recurrent) events.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

CVD events in the 1,441 DCCT/EDIC participants were analyzed separately by type (CVD death, acute myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, silent MI, angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/coronary artery bypass graft [PTCA/CABG], and congestive heart failure [CHF]) or as composite outcomes (CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]). Proportional rate models and conditional models assessed associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 29 years, 239 participants had 421 CVD events, and 120 individuals had 149 MACE. Age was the strongest risk factor for acute MI, silent MI, stroke, and PTCA/CABG, while glycemia was the strongest risk factor for CVD death, CHF, and angina, second strongest for acute MI and PTCA/CABG, third strongest for stroke, and not associated with silent MI. HbA1c was the strongest modifiable risk factor for a first CVD event (CVD: HR 1.38 [95% CI 1.21, 1.56] per 1% higher HbA1c; MACE: HR 1.54 [1.30, 1.82]) and also for subsequent CVD events (CVD: incidence ratio [IR] 1.28 [95% CI 1.09, 1.51]; MACE: IR 1.89 [1.36, 2.61]).

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive glycemic management is recommended to lower the risk of initial CVD events in T1D. After a first event, optimal glycemic control may reduce the risk of recurrent CVD events and should be maintained.




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Migration &amp; Coronavirus: A Complicated Nexus Between Migration Management and Public Health

This webinar, organized by MPI and the Zolberg Institute on Migration and Mobility at The New School, discussed migration policy responses around the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and examined where migration management and enforcement tools may be useful and where they may be ill-suited to advancing public health goals. 




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Young Refugee Children: Their Schooling Experiences in the United States and in Countries of First Asylum

In this webinar, the authors of three papers on the experiences of refugee children present their findings, with a focus on how such experiences affect their mental health and education.




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A Study of Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes among African-Born Women Living in Utah

Resettled African refugee women may experience particularly acute complications during pregnancy, birth, and the child's early infancy. Yet health care-providers and policymakers may not be aware of the particular challenges that these women and their children face. This report, examining women giving birth in Utah over a seven-year period, compares perinatal complications of the African born and a segment of the U.S. born.




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Building Therapeutic Relationships: Choosing Words That Put People First

Jane K. Dickinson
Jan 1, 2017; 35:51-54
Commentary




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Engaging Patients in Education for Self-Management in an Accountable Care Environment

Christine A. Beebe
Jul 1, 2011; 29:123-126
Practical Pointers




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Heroic Consciousness: What it is and How to Acquire it

By Scott T. Allison This blog post is excerpted from: Allison, S. T. (2019). Heroic consciousness. Heroism Science, 4, 1-43.   The philosopher Yuval Noah Harari (2018) recently described consciousness as “the greatest mystery in the universe”. What exactly is heroic consciousness? It is a way of seeing the world, perceiving reality, and making decisions … Continue reading Heroic Consciousness: What it is and How to Acquire it




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Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




Decision problems.
Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

Solution strategies.
The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

"Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

"Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

Robustness and Probability

Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

Wrapping Up

The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise.