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Vulnerable to COVID-19 and in Frontline Jobs, Immigrants Are Mostly Shut Out of U.S. Relief

On the frontlines of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic yet also more disproportionately affected by the virus and with reduced health care access, immigrants in the United States have largely found themselves blocked from federal economic relief. As states and philanthropic groups seek to plug the gap, this article examines conditions and changing policies around immigration and the coronavirus response.




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Chronicling Migration in the 21st Century Through One Family's Journey

This event marked the launch of New York Times reporter Jason DeParle's book tracing the arc of migration as a phenomenon, witnessed through three decades observing a particular Filipino family moving from Manila to Texas. The conversation explored both the human and policy aspects of migration and development.




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Japan’s Labor Migration Reforms: Breaking with the Past?

Japan is hoping to bring in as many as 350,000 medium-skilled foreign workers over five years to fill labor market gaps in its rapidly aging society. Yet does this system of Specified Skilled Workers represent an effort to secure a workforce without making long-term settlement possible? And considering its linkage to a Technical Intern Training Program much criticized for abusive practices, does this change represent real reform? This article examines these and other issues.





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Disagree About Iraq? You're Not Just Wrong -- You're Evil.

The conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby last week gave Americans a chance to pick at the scab of what has become a favored obsession -- the debate over the motives of the Bush administration in the run-up to the war in Iraq.




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Bettors and Pundits: Never Wrong, Just Unlucky

The NCAA men's college basketball championship game was on the line. People in office pools around the country were holding their breath. Louisville was down by four points with a few minutes left on the clock. A UCLA player stole a pass and raced down the court where, after being bumped by a...




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Are We Judging Actions, Or the People Behind Them?

Like lunar and solar eclipses, there are some Washington phenomena that are so common they ought to have distinct names. Here is one: A public figure comes to be hated by large numbers of people. But the person cannot be prosecuted or punished, perhaps because his behavior did not involve a crime so...




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Hot and Cold Emotions Make Us Poor Judges

Why would David Vitter, a U.S. senator with four young children, have gotten involved with a seedy escort service? Why would Michael Vick, a gifted NFL quarterback, get mixed up with the sordid world of dog fighting? Why would Bill Clinton, a Rhodes scholar, six-time governor and president of the...




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In Judging Risk, Our Fears Are Often Misplaced

Shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, psychologist Jennifer Lerner conducted a national field experiment: She asked a random sampling of Americans how likely it was that they would be the victim of a terrorist attack in the next 12 months.




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When We Cook Up a Memory, Experience Is Just One Ingredient

People hate Mondays. And they love Fridays. The Carpenters crooned about being blue in "Rainy Days and Mondays." The restaurant chain T.G.I. Friday's might restrict its clientele to workaholics if it were to rename itself T.G.I. Monday's.




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Big Political Donors Just Looking for Favors? Apparently Not.

The Center for Responsive Politics recently estimated that it cost $5.8 billion to finance the 2008 general elections. To most people that is a staggeringly large sum and evidence of the profoundly corrupting role that money plays in politics, but to some very smart political watchers, the better...




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Taking Stock of Refugee Resettlement: Policy Objectives, Practical Tradeoffs, and the Evidence Base

With displacement at a record high, governments around the world are looking for ways to jumpstart, expand, or maximize the impact of their refugee resettlement programs. Yet the evidence base regarding the effectiveness of such programs is particularly thin. This report maps the monitoring and evaluation gaps that exist and identifies areas where further research could help inform policymakers' actions.




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Money Wise: Improving How EU Funds Support Migration and Integration Policy Objectives

European policymakers are negotiating the blueprint for the next EU funding cycle—a plan that will determine how much money is available for migration and integration aims, what it can be used for, and who can access it. This policy brief explores some of the limitations of EU funds, as well as strategies that could help them more effectively serve migration and integration policy goals.




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Introduction to The Old Ways: A Journey on Foot by Robert Macfarlane

My first exposure to Robert Macfarlane happened a year ago when I picked up a battered copy of The Wild Places in order to shelve it. Instead, I checked it out from my branch and stayed up past midnight to read it. Thanks to Macfarlane, I was exposed to Roger Deakin's Wild Wood and Notes from Walnut Tree Farm. I found photos of Walnut Tree Farm, the late Deakin's house, much visited by Macfarlane, while searching for more information about both of them online.

I am from probably the last generation of American children to be raised on English children's books. I know that there is a generation of Quidditch-playing adults that were weaned on the Harry Potter books of British-born J. K. Rowling. While the Harry Potter books are gripping, they lack an essential British characteristic shared by many successful authors of British children's books:

  • Rudyard Kipling - the two Puck of Pook's Hill books
  • Rosemary Sucliff - all of her books
  • Elizabeth Goudge - Rowling helped get Linnets & Valerians and The Little White Horse republished
  • L. M. Boston - the Greene Knowe series
  • William Mayne
  • Robert Westall
  • Diana Wynne Jones - the British landscape of an alternative Britain
  • J. R. R. Tolkein -The Hobbit
  • Kenneth Graham - The Wind in the Willows
  • T. H. White - The Once and Future King
  • Susan Cooper - The Dark is Rising series
I'm sure that there are many more. What these authors and books have in common is a palpable sense of landscape; the English and Welsh earth itself is as present and influential as any of the characters. In any Harry Potter book I had the sense that the only character connected to the land was Hagrid; the rest of the wizards were interested in nature only insofar as they could exploit it for magical potions or familiars.

Both Macfarlane and his late mentor Deakin possessed the same sense of awareness of the land as these children's authors. Deakin kept his hedgerows alive to shelter birds and let animals wander at will through his house. Macfarlane travels, mostly on foot, as he did while he hiked and climbed in both The Wild Places and The Old Ways.




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Introduction to The Old Ways: A Journey on Foot, continued

Macfarlane likes to walk. In The Wild Places, he visits mountains, woods, water. In The Old Ways, he follows the ancient paths that cross the British isles, that go through wood, by the sea shore, and over the downs. His England (and Scotland) however, is multilayered; he is aware not only of the physical landscape surrounding him but of the history of the land through which he walks. A walk take him from point A to point B in physical space, as well as through centuries of time. In his author's note, Macafarlane observes:

"It is an exploration of the ghosts and voices that haunt ancient paths, of the tales that tracks keep and tell, of pilgrimage and trespass, of songlines and their singers and of the strange continents that exist within countries" (p.xi).

While Americans are criticized for being such a highly mobile society, humans have always traveled. Early hunter-gatherers did not stay in one place, but roamed within a fairly wide territory. The early sea-farers such as the Phoenicians, the Greeks, the Carthaginians, the Romans (marine archaeology has shown that they sailed more than we have associated with them) and the Vikings all traveled the roads of the sea. The medieval Crusades were holy wars, but they were also the mass movement of men, women, and children walking across Europe, then by boat from southern Italian ports to the Holy Land. Within Europe itself, bands of pilgrims walked from their homes along the tracks to Canterbury or St. James de Campostela. Merchants in ancient and medieval times traveled in caravans along the land and sea routes of the Silk Roads.

The difference between the modern traveler of today and that of the past is that travelers today are less exposed to the world around them. When you are encased in a plane or enclosed in a fast car, you lose awareness of the physical world outside of you. The electronic devices that we use to distract ourselves during our journeys - our DVD players, Ipods, tablets and ebook readers, all cut us off from the landscape and  fellow travelers around us. Macfarlane deliberately chooses to travel on foot (and by small boat) to connect with the physical world around him during his modern secular pilgrimage.





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Las puertas abiertas para los migrantes venezolanos y nicaragüenses en América Latina y el Caribe se cierran un poco a medida que aumenta la escala de los flujos y la presión en los servicios públicos

WASHINGTON – A pesar de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe han tomado medidas generosas e innovadoras para lidiar con el desplazamiento forzado desde Venezuela y más recientemente desde Nicaragua, la cálida bienvenida se ha enfriado en algunos lugares a medida que el número de entradas, la presión sobre los servicios públicos y la preocupación del público aumenta.




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As Millions Are Pushed from Jobs amid Pandemic, the Loss of Employer Health Coverage & Limited Access to Public Coverage for Many Immigrants Hold Major Implications for Them – and U.S. Overall

WASHINGTON – As more than 33 million U.S. workers have lost their jobs since March amid the pandemic-induced economic crisis, immigrants are among the most vulnerable: They are more likely than the U.S. born to be laid off and to live in communities with high COVID-19 infection rates, and less likely to have health insurance coverage and access to a doctor or other usual source of health care.




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Integrating Refugees and Asylum Seekers into the German Economy and Society: Empirical Evidence and Policy Objectives

As the top destination in Europe for asylum seekers in recent years, Germany has rolled out a number of integration policy changes. Based on an early look at how newcomers’ integration is progressing, the report finds the policies have had ambiguous implications. The report also provides insights into the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the asylum seeker and refugee population.




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Badrijani - Grilled Eggplants with a coriander and garlic Aioli

This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Alice in Frames. www.aliceinframes.com




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Julie's Coconut Cake

This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Julie Goodwin. Julie's new book is "Homemade Takeaway."





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Okonomiyake - Japanese pizza with soy, honey and ginger sauce

Referred to as a Japanese 'pizza', okonomiyaki is probably best described as a cabbage fritter. There are many versions that can include seafood, pork belly, kimchi or cheese, and either served with the sauce described or with Japanese mayonnaise. Delicious snack food, which can also be a meal.




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Bbq barramundi, Jamon, minted peas, Dijon mustard dressing & Danish fetta

Delicious fish dish for a summer night.





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Apricot & Vanilla Jam

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive , 774, 3.30pm, courtesy of Alice Zaslavsky.




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Freshly shucked oysters with spanner crab salad and green nam jim

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Tony Twitchett, Taxi Kitchen




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French spiced beetroot and apple jam

2 granny smith apples, coarsely grated 2 beetroots 1/4 tsp. ground clove 2 star anise 1/2 nutmeg finely grated 200ml balsamic vinegar 150g caster sugar





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Jerusalem artichokes cooked overnight with hazelnut praline

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, shared by Dan Hunter, chef and owner of Otways' restaurant Brae.





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Medallions of Beef, with pan juice sauce, wilted cherry tomatoes, wine and basil

Medallions of Beef, with pan juice sauce, wilted cherry tomatoes, any old wine and basil. Really nice with a potato salad, with fresh spring peas and crispy bacon pieces. Something I do very often is knock up quick tasty dinner utilising your favourite heavy-based frying pan.





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Japanese sweet ginger meatballs

1 bunch of spring onions, finely chopped 250 g minced beef 250 g minced pork 20 g grated ginger 1 egg 2 tsps. roasted sesame oil 1 tbsp. cornflour, plus extra for dusting sunflower oil, for shallow frying 1 tbsp. white sesame seeds salt and ground white pepper For the sweet ginger sauce: 30 g grated ginger 3 tbsps. soy sauce 125 ml dashi stock or 1 tsp instant dashi powder mixed with water 2 tbsps. sugar 3 tbsps. mirin 3 tbsps. rice vinegar 1 tsp cornflour




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How to cook a leatherjacket

This method is moist and magic! Throw out every notion you might have had about leatherjackets being anything other than juicy and flavoursome. This little trick cooks the fish from within. Usually salt draws but in this case its responsible for keeping every bit of moisture in the fish. Leatherjacket is an inexpensive fish, the presentation is great, and you'll bowl over your dinner guests every time. What's not to love?




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Thorpe bombs out in Beijing

In a sobering reality check, Ian Thorpe has failed to qualify for the 100 metres freestyle final at the FINA World Cup short course meet in Beijing.




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Association of BMI, Fitness, and Mortality in Patients With Diabetes: Evaluating the Obesity Paradox in the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (FIT Project) Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of fitness on the association between BMI and mortality among patients with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We identified 8,528 patients with diabetes (self-report, medication use, or electronic medical record diagnosis) from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (FIT Project). Patients with a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 or cancer were excluded. Fitness was measured as the METs achieved during a physician-referred treadmill stress test and categorized as low (<6), moderate (6–9.9), or high (≥10). Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were calculated using standard BMI (kilograms per meter squared) cutoffs of normal (18.5–24.9), overweight (25–29.9), and obese (≥30). Adjusted splines centered at 22.5 kg/m2 were used to examine BMI as a continuous variable.

RESULTS

Patients had a mean age of 58 ± 11 years (49% women) with 1,319 deaths over a mean follow-up of 10.0 ± 4.1 years. Overall, obese patients had a 30% lower mortality hazard (P < 0.001) compared with normal-weight patients. In adjusted spline modeling, higher BMI as a continuous variable was predominantly associated with a lower mortality risk in the lowest fitness group and among patients with moderate fitness and BMI ≥30 kg/m2. Compared with the lowest fitness group, patients with higher fitness had an ~50% (6–9.9 METs) and 70% (≥10 METs) lower mortality hazard regardless of BMI (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with diabetes, the obesity paradox was less pronounced for patients with the highest fitness level, and these patients also had the lowest risk of mortality.




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Reduction in Global Myocardial Glucose Metabolism in Subjects With 1-Hour Postload Hyperglycemia and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

OBJECTIVE

Impaired insulin-stimulated myocardial glucose uptake has occurred in patients with type 2 diabetes with or without coronary artery disease. Whether cardiac insulin resistance is present remains uncertain in subjects at risk for type 2 diabetes, such as individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and 1-h postload glucose ≥155 mg/dL during an oral glucose tolerance test (NGT 1-h high). This issue was examined in this study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The myocardial metabolic rate of glucose (MRGlu) was measured by using dynamic 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography combined with a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp in 30 volunteers without coronary artery disease. Three groups were studied: 1) those with 1-h postload glucose <155 mg/dL (NGT 1-h low) (n = 10), 2) those with NGT 1-h high (n = 10), 3) and those with IGT (n = 10).

RESULTS

After adjusting for age, sex, and BMI, both subjects with NGT 1-h high (23.7 ± 6.4 mmol/min/100 mg; P = 0.024) and those with IGT (16.4 ± 6.0 mmol/min/100 mg; P < 0.0001) exhibited a significant reduction in global myocardial MRGlu; this value was 32.8 ± 9.7 mmol/min/100 mg in subjects with NGT 1-h low. Univariate correlations showed that MRGlu was positively correlated with insulin-stimulated whole-body glucose disposal (r = 0.441; P = 0.019) and negatively correlated with 1-h (r = –0.422; P = 0.025) and 2-h (r = –0.374; P = 0.05) postload glucose levels, but not with fasting glucose.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that myocardial insulin resistance is an early defect that is already detectable in individuals with dysglycemic conditions associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, such as IGT and NGT 1-h high.




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Genetic Susceptibility Determines {beta}-Cell Function and Fasting Glycemia Trajectories Throughout Childhood: A 12-Year Cohort Study (EarlyBird 76)

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that childhood prediabetes may develop prior to obesity and be associated with relative insulin deficiency. We proposed that the insulin-deficient phenotype is genetically determined and tested this hypothesis by longitudinal modeling of insulin and glucose traits with diabetes risk genotypes in the EarlyBird cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

EarlyBird is a nonintervention prospective cohort study that recruited 307 healthy U.K. children at 5 years of age and followed them throughout childhood. We genotyped 121 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetes risk, identified in the adult population. Association of SNPs with fasting insulin and glucose and HOMA indices of insulin resistance and β-cell function, available from 5 to 16 years of age, were tested. Association analysis with hormones was performed on selected SNPs.

RESULTS

Several candidate loci influenced the course of glycemic and insulin traits, including rs780094 (GCKR), rs4457053 (ZBED3), rs11257655 (CDC123), rs12779790 (CDC123 and CAMK1D), rs1111875 (HHEX), rs7178572 (HMG20A), rs9787485 (NRG3), and rs1535500 (KCNK16). Some of these SNPs interacted with age, the growth hormone–IGF-1 axis, and adrenal and sex steroid activity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that genetic markers influence both elevated and average courses of glycemic traits and β-cell function in children during puberty independently of BMI are a significant step toward early identification of children at risk for diabetes. These findings build on our previous observations that pancreatic β-cell defects predate insulin resistance in the onset of prediabetes. Understanding the mechanisms of interactions among genetic factors, puberty, and weight gain would allow the development of new and earlier disease-management strategies in children.




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Association Between the Use of Antidepressants and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Large, Population-Based Cohort Study in Japan

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to reveal the associations between the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes and the duration of antidepressant use and the antidepressant dose, and between antidepressant use after diabetes onset and clinical outcomes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this large-scale retrospective cohort study in Japan, new users of antidepressants (exposure group) and nonusers (nonexposure group), aged 20–79 years, were included between 1 April 2006 and 31 May 2015. Patients with a history of diabetes or receipt of antidiabetes treatment were excluded. Covariates were adjusted by using propensity score matching; the associations were analyzed between risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes and the duration of antidepressant use/dose of antidepressant in the exposure and nonexposure groups by using Cox proportional hazards models. Changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level were examined in groups with continuous use, discontinuation, or a reduction in the dose of antidepressants.

RESULTS

Of 90,530 subjects, 45,265 were in both the exposure and the nonexposure group after propensity score matching; 5,225 patients (5.8%) developed diabetes. Antidepressant use was associated with the risk of diabetes onset in a time- and dose-dependent manner. The adjusted hazard ratio was 1.27 (95% CI 1.16–1.39) for short-term low-dose and 3.95 (95% CI 3.31–4.72) for long-term high-dose antidepressant use. HbA1c levels were lower in patients who discontinued or reduced the dose of antidepressants (F[2,49] = 8.17; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term antidepressant use increased the risk of type 2 diabetes onset in a time- and dose-dependent manner. Glucose tolerance improved when antidepressants were discontinued or the dose was reduced after diabetes onset.




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Effects of Bariatric Surgery in Early- and Adult-Onset Obesity in the Prospective Controlled Swedish Obese Subjects Study

OBJECTIVE

Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for obesity, but it is unknown if outcomes differ between adults with early- versus adult-onset obesity. We investigated how obesity status at 20 years of age affects outcomes after bariatric surgery later in life.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Swedish Obese Subjects study is a prospective matched study performed at 25 surgical departments and 480 primary health care centers. Participants aged 37–60 years with BMI ≥34 kg/m2 (men) or ≥38 kg/m2 (women) were recruited between 1987 and 2001; 2,007 participants received bariatric surgery and 2,040 usual care. Self-reported body weight at 20 years of age was used to stratify patients into subgroups with normal BMI (<25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m2), or obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). Body weight, energy intake, and type 2 diabetes status were examined over 10 years, and incidence of cardiovascular and microvascular disease was determined over up to 26 years using data from health registers.

RESULTS

There were small but statistically significant differences in reduction of body weight among the subgroups after bariatric surgery (interaction P = 0.032), with the largest reductions among those with obesity aged 20 years. Bariatric surgery increased type 2 diabetes remission (odds ratios 4.51, 4.90, and 5.58 in subgroups with normal BMI, overweight, or obesity at 20 years of age, respectively; interaction P = 0.951), reduced type 2 diabetes incidence (odds ratios 0.15, 0.13, and 0.15, respectively; interaction P = 0.972), and reduced microvascular complications independent of obesity status at 20 years of age (interaction P = 0.650). The association between bariatric surgery and cardiovascular disease was similar in the subgroups (interaction P = 0.674). Surgical complications were similar in the subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment benefits of bariatric surgery in adults are similar regardless of obesity status at 20 years of age.




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Chronicling Migration in the 21st Century Through One Family’s Journey

Marking the launch of New York Times reporter Jason DeParle's book tracing the arc of migration and its impacts through the life of an extended family of Filipino migrants over a three-decade period, from Manila and through Dubai to the Houston area, this conversation with MPI's Andrew Selee and the World Bank's Dilip Ratha explores migration at both a global and very personal level.




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Diabetes Self-management Education and Support in Type 2 Diabetes: A Joint Position Statement of the American Diabetes Association, the American Association of Diabetes Educators, and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics

Margaret A. Powers
Apr 1, 2016; 34:70-80
Position Statements




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PROactive: A Sad Tale of Inappropriate Analysis and Unjustified Interpretation

Jay S. Skyler
Apr 1, 2006; 24:63-65
Commentary




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Application of Adult-Learning Principles to Patient Instructions: A Usability Study for an Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Device

Gayle Lorenzi
Sep 1, 2010; 28:157-162
Bridges to Excellence




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Jabberwocky. Or: Grand Unified Theory of Uncertainty???


Jabberwocky, Lewis Carroll's whimsical nonsense poem, uses made-up words to create an atmosphere and to tell a story. "Billig", "frumious", "vorpal" and "uffish" have no lexical meaning, but they could have. The poem demonstrates that the realm of imagination exceeds the bounds of reality just as the set of possible words and meanings exceeds its real lexical counterpart.

Uncertainty thrives in the realm of imagination, incongruity, and contradiction. Uncertainty falls in the realm of science fiction as much as in the realm of science. People have struggled with uncertainty for ages and many theories of uncertainty have appeared over time. How many uncertainty theories do we need? Lots, and forever. Would we say that of physics? No, at least not forever.

Can you think inconsistent, incoherent, or erroneous thoughts? I can. (I do it quite often, usually without noticing.) For those unaccustomed to thinking incongruous thoughts, and who need a bit of help to get started, I can recommend thinking of "two meanings packed into one word like a portmanteau," like 'fuming' and 'furious' to get 'frumious' or 'snake' and 'shark' to get 'snark'.

Portmanteau words are a start. Our task now is portmanteau thoughts. Take for instance the idea of a 'thingk':

When I think a thing I've thought,
I have often felt I ought
To call this thing I think a "Thingk",
Which ought to save a lot of ink.

The participle is written "thingking",
(Which is where we save on inking,)
Because "thingking" says in just one word:
"Thinking of a thought thing." Absurd!

All this shows high-power abstraction.
(That highly touted human contraption.)
Using symbols with subtle feint,
To stand for something which they ain't.

Now that wasn't difficult: two thoughts at once. Now let those thoughts be contradictory. To use a prosaic example: thinking the unthinkable, which I suppose is 'unthingkable'. There! You did it. You are on your way to a rich and full life of thinking incongruities, fallacies and contradictions. We can hold in our minds thoughts of 4-sided triangles, parallel lines that intersect, and endless other seeming impossibilities from super-girls like Pippi Longstockings to life on Mars (some of which may actually be true, or at least possible).

Scientists, logicians, and saints are in the business of dispelling all such incongruities, errors and contradictions. Banishing inconsistency is possible in science because (or if) there is only one coherent world. Belief in one coherent world and one grand unified theory is the modern secular version of the ancient monotheistic intuition of one universal God (in which saints tend to believe). Uncertainty thrives in the realm in which scientists and saints have not yet completed their tasks (perhaps because they are incompletable). For instance, we must entertain a wide range of conflicting conceptions when we do not yet know how (or whether) quantum mechanics can be reconciled with general relativity, or Pippi's strength reconciled with the limitations of physiology. As Henry Adams wrote:

"Images are not arguments, rarely even lead to proof, but the mind craves them, and, of late more than ever, the keenest experimenters find twenty images better than one, especially if contradictory; since the human mind has already learned to deal in contradictions."

The very idea of a rigorously logical theory of uncertainty is startling and implausible because the realm of the uncertain is inherently incoherent and contradictory. Indeed, the first uncertainty theory - probability - emerged many centuries after the invention of the axiomatic method in mathematics. Today we have many theories of uncertainty: probability, imprecise probability, information theory, generalized information theory, fuzzy logic, Dempster-Shafer theory, info-gap theory, and more (the list is a bit uncertain). Why such a long and diverse list? It seems that in constructing a logically consistent theory of the logically inconsistent domain of uncertainty, one cannot capture the whole beast all at once (though I'm uncertain about this).

A theory, in order to be scientific, must exclude something. A scientific theory makes statements such as "This happens; that doesn't happen." Karl Popper explained that a scientific theory must contain statements that are at risk of being wrong, statements that could be falsified. Deborah Mayo demonstrated how science grows by discovering and recovering from error.

The realm of uncertainty contains contradictions (ostensible or real) such as the pair of statements: "Nine year old girls can lift horses" and "Muscle fiber generates tension through the action of actin and myosin cross-bridge cycling". A logically consistent theory of uncertainty can handle improbabilities, as can scientific theories like quantum mechanics. But a logical theory cannot encompass outright contradictions. Science investigates a domain: the natural and physical worlds. Those worlds, by virtue of their existence, are perhaps coherent in a way that can be reflected in a unified logical theory. Theories of uncertainty are directed at a larger domain: the natural and physical worlds and all imaginable (and unimaginable) other worlds. That larger domain is definitely not coherent, and a unified logical theory would seem to be unattainable. Hence many theories of uncertainty are needed.

Scientific theories are good to have, and we do well to encourage the scientists. But it is a mistake to think that the scientific paradigm is suitable to all domains, in particular, to the study of uncertainty. Logic is a powerful tool and the axiomatic method assures the logical consistency of a theory. For instance, Leonard Savage argued that personal probability is a "code of consistency" for choosing one's behavior. Jim March compares the rigorous logic of mathematical theories of decision to strict religious morality. Consistency between values and actions is commendable says March, but he notes that one sometimes needs to deviate from perfect morality. While "[s]tandard notions of intelligent choice are theories of strict morality ... saints are a luxury to be encouraged only in small numbers." Logical consistency is a merit of any single theory, including a theory of uncertainty. However, insisting that the same logical consistency apply over the entire domain of uncertainty is like asking reality and saintliness to make peace.




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We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty


We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.

What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.

In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started. 





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New JHBS: Mind-Body Medicine Before Freud, Psychology and Biography, Jung and Einstein

The Spring 2020 issue of the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences is now online. Full details about contributions to this issue follow below. “Practicing mind-body medicine before Freud: John G. Gehring, the “Wizard of the Androscoggin”” by. Ben Harris and Courtney J. Stevens. Abstract: This article describes the psychotherapy practice of physician … Continue reading New JHBS: Mind-Body Medicine Before Freud, Psychology and Biography, Jung and Einstein




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Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More

A number of articles now in press at the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences will be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Uncovering the metaphysics of psychological warfare: The social science behind the Psychological Strategy Board’s operations planning, 1951–1953,” Gabrielle Kemmis. Abstract: In April 1951 president Harry S. Truman established … Continue reading Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More




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The dangers of a noisy ocean -- and how we can quiet it down | Nicola Jones

The ocean is a naturally noisy place full of singing whales, grunting fish, snapping shrimp, cracking ice, wind and rain. But human-made sounds -- from ship engines to oil drilling -- have become an acute threat to marine life, says science journalist Nicola Jones. Watch (and listen) as she discusses the strange things that happen to underwater creatures in the face of ocean noise pollution -- and shares straightforward ways we can dial down the sound to see almost immediate impacts.