Cultivating Our Future: Student Shadow Program Fuels Industry Interest jhammond@desti… Tue, 07/30/2024 - 18:28

From Campus to Career: The Critical Importance of Experiential Learning in Workforce Preparation jhammond@desti… Tue, 09/24/2024 - 16:52

Are you feeling the urge to refresh your music studio? Here are a few ways to make your music teaching space feel clean and organized.

What do you charge for your teaching? If you want to take a fresh look at your tuition model, join us on Wednesday for an online discussion about this most important subject.

Recently, we asked, "What's one thing you wish you knew before starting your own private music studio?" Here are some of the comments we received.

Want to have access to an online teaching platform that actually works for music? Online Studio might be the solution for you.

We know from talking to hundreds of music teachers over the years that students' practicing habits are always a point of discussion. We've seen parents fall into a whole range of attitudes. Here are a few that we've seen.

How do you handle the possibility of changing teaching schedules in your music studio during the summer months?

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

• holding at 3.3% y/y
• would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

• "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

With the surging USD after Trump's win the yuan is just one of many weaker currencies:

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024:

10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT

• Fed's Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is 'payments')

10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech

2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT

• Fed's Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter)

5:00 PM ET / 2200 GMT

• Fed's Harker (Philadelphia Fed President, non-voter) speech

5:30 PM ET / 2230 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speaks again

• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

Fed's Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks.

He does say:

• private sector best suited to innovate on payment systems
• Fed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.
• Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.
• There are times when government can address market inefficiencies
• Still does not see case for Fed digital dollar

Perhaps he will comment on monetary policy/the economy in a Q&A later.

Looking ahead at

• 10:15 AM ET, Richmond and President Barkin is speaking (he speaks at 5:30 PM ET as well).
• 2 PM, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari speaking and at
• 5 PM Philadelphia Fed Pres. Harker is scheduled to speak

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says:

• Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.
• US economy looks pretty good
• Labor market is resilient.
• From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.
• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.
• Feds focus may turn to upside inflation risks or to downside employment risks, depending on how economy develops.

The market is pricing a 65% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December. That is down over the last week or so (it was in the high 70%s last week).

US yields are higher but off their highest levels:

• 2-year 4.314%, +6.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.269%, +7.6 basis points
• 10-year 4.370%, +6.3 basis points
• 30 year 4.516%, +3.7 basis points

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today is an example of the Bank pushing back on yuan weakness, with the reference rate set 300+ points stronger for the CNY than was expected (in the Reuters model).

Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH as shown in the chart below):

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US trading of course, where we could see volatility and market action pick up before the weekend.

There are also some modest ones for USD/CAD and AUD/USD. However, given prevailing spot levels, the expiries are unlikely to feature into play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level. That sits near the 100-hour moving average at 1.0949 currently with the bigger picture focus being on the pair's 100-day moving average at 1.0935. Keeping below both is underscoring a more downside bias, so the expiries here adds an extra layer to that for the session ahead at least.

Then, there is a relatively large one for USD/JPY at the 149.00 level. If anything else, that could put a floor on price action at least until the expiries roll off later in the day. That especially with it being a partial US holiday to start the new week, providing little incentive for markets to go running.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are some large ones on the board for today but may not feature into play given the current spot price levels.

The one for EUR/USD is seen at the 1.1000 mark but as the dollar holds firmer, it's not likely to factor into price action in the session ahead. There are also some large ones on the board for the pair in the days ahead, so we'll see if those will come into play.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 and 0.6775 levels. Recent price action for the pair is more of a consolidation around 0.6700 to 0.6750, so it might take a bit to break the mold in the session ahead. To the downside, there is additional support from the 100-day moving average at 0.6693 so that could limit any drop. And with the dollar keeping steadier, topside potential remains capped for now.

So, that's the state of play with regards to the larger expiries for the day.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There's no significant extension of that this week but there's no reversal signs either as of yet.

In terms of expiries, there is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level but given the price action we're seeing, it isn't likely to feature into play. But just in case it does, do take note of it as that could limit any upside pullback in the session ahead at least.

That being said, the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0918 and 1.0947 respectively as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.0936 are more pertinent levels to watch out for in case buyers do try and make a play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such, that might help to limit gains in European morning trade at least. That considering the dollar is also continuing to keep steadier throughout the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn't one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That considering there is little else to work with for the time being. But stronger resistance is seen closer to the 200-day moving average at 1.0871 and then the 100-hour moving average at 1.0880 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any upside extensions in the session ahead at least.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3800 level. That alongside the 100-hour moving average of 1.3788 could help to provide a floor for price action, at least for the session ahead for the pair.

All of this considering the lack of key catalysts to get major currencies moving to kick start the week of course.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any upside extensions in the session ahead at least. Not to mention that there is a large one at the same level there for tomorrow.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't the expiries to provide too much of a draw. However, it could still anchor down price action during the session especially with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages seen at 0.6688-00 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving average at 1.0834 keeping a ceiling on price action for now. As such, that could limit the influence and impact of the expiries. But if we do see it come into play, expect that to be a spot in anchoring any upside extensions.

There will be more expiries towards the downside under 1.0800 in the day ahead, so there's that to consider as well.

Besides that, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6670 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance again, but it could just keep price action a little stickier with little else to work with in the session ahead. Near-term upside for the pair is more limited by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6689 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the data, we could even see the expiries at 1.0750 get looped into play. That might provide some base for price action if the data stirs up appetite for a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for December.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 152.00 level and that could provide a bit of a floor to any retracement in price action we're seeing on the day. That at least until the expiries roll off. But again, the bond market remains the more influential driver for the pair at this stage. So, keep that in mind.

There is also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3810 level, and that sits in between the key hourly moving averages at 1.3802-20 currently. As such, that might keep price action in check above the 1.3800 level after the BOC yesterday.

And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6640 level. I wouldn't attach too much technical significance to it though but it may yet just act as a bit of a magnet for price action before rolling off. That is if risk sentiment continues to stay more muted and pensive in general. The 200-day moving average at 0.6628 remains the more attractive level to watch for the pair currently, with upside potential more limited closer to the 100-hour moving average at 0.6676.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels. Looking at the near-term chart, we are seeing price hold in between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809 and 1.0838. So, that is also boxing things in going into the session ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3855 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but may just anchor price action before we get to the Canadian retail sales data later in the day at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin the dollar in general to start the new week. But the range for the day is relatively narrow, so we might see some extension plays but arguably limited by the expiries above. If anything, the 200-hour moving average at 1.0827 will act as a "safety net" of sorts in limiting any outsized price extensions with little catalysts for the time being.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more limited, alongside key near-term levels.

The 200-hour moving average, seen at 1.0820 currently, is still providing a ceiling for any upside extensions. And price action is trading narrowly in between that and the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0803 currently. So, the expiries at 1.0800 adds to some pull in and around those levels.

That until they roll off later in the day or we get a key catalyst of sorts, which isn't likely given the lack of items on the economic calendar until US trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through to 1.0825. As such, the expiries will add to those defensive layers on either side.

That being said, the euro side of the equation will come into focus with plenty of CPI and GDP data in the day(s) ahead. So, just be wary of that.

In terms of technicals, the pair is consolidating somewhat after testing the August low of 1.0777. Buyers are holding on somewhat with the near-term chart also reflecting that, with price action now just above its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809-15. But I would argue getting above the Friday high of 1.0839 will do more to convince of a potential turnaround for buyers. So, keep that in mind as well.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there is also still a ceiling from the 200-day moving average at 1.0868. That will be a key technical level to watch in the day ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CHF at the 0.8650 level. With price action holding below the 100-day moving average of 0.8677 in the past few days, the expiries here could keep things more locked in until traders feel comfortable to chase the next key technical push in the pair. Just be wary that there is another large set of expiries at the same level for tomorrow too.

And lastly, there is one for EUR/GBP at the 0.8350 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could offer a bit of a floor to price action after the rise yesterday, in which the pound was dragged down amid the UK budget while the euro perked up on CPI and GDP data.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines involving the US election in the meantime. However, with the dollar under pressure, there is still a chance of European traders following through on the earlier price action. So, that's something to be wary about.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6600 level. The expiries are pretty huge and sits near the 200-hour moving average of 0.6599 currently. But the pair is largely driven by dollar dynamics to start the week, with the greenback opening with a gap down on US election sentiment. That is still the key driver to watch in the session(s) ahead but just note of the 200-day moving average at 0.6627 for the pair. That will be the bigger key level to watch on the charts for now.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

Besides that, market sentiment will be largely driven by election headlines over the next few sessions more so than anything else.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As such, I wouldn't place much emphasis on the large one at 1.0725 currently for EUR/USD.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves, in particular the dollar. For now though, the greenback is seeing a slight pullback to yesterday's gains. So, the ones at 1.0775 could help to just keep a lid on things until we get to US trading at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at the moment. That being said, they could play a role in keeping price action more boxed in until we get to US trading again later.

There aren't any key risk events on the calendar to really impact EUR/USD sentiment. So, it's all about how the post-election flows will settle as we look towards the end of the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to start the week, there might not be too much appetite for traders to chase any outsized moves.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish.

The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum with the price moving to and through the 50% midpoint of the move down from the Mqy 1 high. That level comes in at 0.87986 (near natural resistance at 0.8800).

The price is in trading above and below that level the last four or so hours of trading with a high price of 0.8804. Also in play on the topside is its 200-day moving average at 0.8817 and a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.88251. Get above those levels would open the door for more upside momentum.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out near the 50% midpoint and below the 200-day moving average. That is natural estranged can defined and limited risk against the technical levels. However, the price were to move above the 200-day moving average, the seller leaning now, should look to cover and push the price higher.

---------------------------------

USDCHF Summary

The USDCHF continues its upward trend, testing the 50% target level at 0.87986.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 0.8817 (200-day MA)

• 0.88187-0.8825 (swing area)

Support

• 0.8772-0.87763 (last week's highs)

Outlook:

• Breaking above 0.88187-0.8825 opens door for more upside momentum.

• Moving below 0.8772-0.87763 gives sellers short-term advantage.

• Absent a breakdown, buyers remain in control, targeting new highs since July 31.

Gold futures warning: bull flag breakdown points to further downside risk for GC traders ????

Gold futures (GC) have recently broken out of a significant bull flag formation, and after a strong rally, prices have now pulled back, raising concerns among traders and investors. Let’s dive into the details and what it means for those holding or trading gold.

Understanding the measured move: a key level for professional traders ????

After breaking out of the yellow bull flag on the 4-hour chart, gold prices made a “measured move” from the low point A to the top of the bull flag pole at B, reaching as high as C. In trading, a measured move is a projection based on the initial rally (or decline) within a pattern, allowing traders to estimate where the price might head next. This level often aligns with Fibonacci retracements, with the 50% level in this case acting as a key decision-making point for professional traders and algorithms, who tend to sell at the completion of a measured move.

In this case, the measured move fulfilled its target, and prices began to pull back, signaling that some traders are locking in gains and potentially positioning for a reversal. This is often seen as an exhaustion point, where buyers lose steam, and sellers start stepping in.

Retesting the broken bull flag: signs of weakness? ????

Now, gold is retesting the previously broken bull flag, a critical area that could either act as support or become a point of resistance. As of the latest data, GC futures are trading below the Value Area Low (VAL) of approximately 2635-2636, adding further bearish pressure to the outlook. If prices close below this level today, it may signal that support is not holding—a significant concern for gold bulls.

What traders should watch ????

• Closing price relative to VAL (2635-2636): A close below this level today would be a bearish signal, indicating that the support zone is failing to hold.
• Consecutive closes below VAL: If today and tomorrow both close below 2635-2636, it could reinforce a bearish trend, making it even harder for gold to recover in the short term.
• Bull flag as potential resistance: Now that the bull flag is broken, it may act as a new resistance point, which could further press down on prices.

Bottom line: is gold at risk of further downside? ⚠️

The recent breakdown from the bull flag, the completion of the measured move, and the failure to hold above the Value Area Low are all red flags for gold bulls. Should prices continue to close below 2635-2636, it could signal a stronger bearish trend for GC futures. As always, traders should approach with caution and assess their risk, as the market could face additional selling pressure if these support levels fail to hold. Trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

More records are reached today:

• Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time ever
• S&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time ever
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well

For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at 2434.97 after reaching an intraday high of 2441.72 just short of the record closing level.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +304.14 points or 0.69% at 44293.13
• S&P index up 5.81 points or 0.10% at 6001.35
• NASDAQ index is up 11.99 points or 0.06% at 19298.76
• Russell 2000 up 35.33 points or 1.47% at 2434.97

For the Russell 2000, its high intraday level reached 2458.85 on November 10, 2021. For the year, the Russell 2000 is now up 20.12%. That has now surpassed a down industrial average gain of 17.52%.

The S&P index is now up 25.82% in 2024 while the NASDAQ index is up 28.56%.

Fundamental Overview

TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it.

It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. Moreover, the manufacturing cycle might be in the early innings of a growth phase, so those are all positive macro factors for the stock.

Tesla, like Coinbase, Bitcoin and Dogecoin, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.

The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that TSLA broke above the resistance zone around the 270.00 level and exploded higher as Trump’s victory became clear. The stock is now trading around the 359.00 level in pre-market. The target should be the all-time high around the 414.50 level but that doesn’t mean it cannot break through and reach new highs.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.

If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower and below the previous resistance now turned support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on bidding the stock up with a defined risk below the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a pullback into the next trendline.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977.

The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated back down toward the close from yesterday's trade where buyers have stalled the fall.

On the downside, the next major target comes against the rising 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.3908 and 1.3911. It would take a move below that area to increase the bearish bias with the 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart the next downside target at 1.38868.

On the top side, getting back above 1.3945 and 1.3958 would have traders looking again toward the 2022 high at 1.3977. Get above that level opens the door for further upside potential.

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USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD rose in the Asian session, approaching 2022 highs.

Key Points:

1. Broke above recent highs (1.3945-1.3958).

2. Reached 1.39664, shy of 2022 high (1.3977).

3. Buyers turned sellers, and the price fell.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.3945, 1.3958, and 1.3977 confirms further upside.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 1.3908-1.3911 (100/200-hour MA) and 1.38868 (100-bar MA) increases bearish bias.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.3945, 1.3958, 1.3977

• Support: 1.3908, 1.3911, 1.38868