ING remarks after the wages data from Australia earlier:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

ING says that year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.5% is a step in the right direction for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider rate cuts.

However, ING notes this deceleration alone isn’t enough for the RBA to rule out any upside risks to interest rates.

Despite the softer data, ING believes a case for a near-term rate cut remains weak, predicting the earliest possible easing from the RBA could come in the first quarter of 2025.

**

I suspect even Q1 is too early. The RBA next meet on December 9 - 10, where on hold is expected.

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024,

• Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydney
• that's 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Perhaps we'll hear something on wages data from earlier today:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)

But, probably not:

• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

The RBA next meet on December 9 and 10 and no change to the cash rate is widely expected.

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024

• due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

Previews posted already:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

OK, what to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

CPI Headline y/y, expected 2.6% with the range showing:

• 2.3% - 2.7%

CPI Headline m/m expected 0.2% with the range showing:

• 0.1 to 0.3%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y expected 3.3% with the range showing:

• 3.2 - 3.4%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:

• 0.2 to 0.4%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations. the December meeting is in focus right now.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut ... didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

The agenda ahead includes another three. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format:

• 1435/0935 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City
• 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before an Economic Club of Memphis luncheon
• 1830/1330 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives luncheon keynote before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot this week, holding gains ahead of the main event later today. It's all about the US CPI report and markets are likely to remain more tentative up until then. As for the bigger picture, the post-election sentiment continues to play out for the most part and that remains the larger focus.

For now, USD/JPY is one to watch as it closes in on the 155.00 mark currently. That will mark the first time since the end of July that the pair is taking a run at the figure level. Is Tokyo going to step up with their verbal interventions? There's going to be little technical resistance in between this pocket here and 160.00 next.

Besides that, EUR/USD is also in focus as the pair closes in on the April low of 1.0601. Large option expiries are in play for now but it's hard to ignore the stronger dollar post-election. If that breaks, sellers will be eyeing the 1.0500 level next before the October lows from last year seen at 1.0448-51.

• German DAX futures -0.2%
• French CAC 40 futures -0.4%
• UK FTSE futures -0.1%

The CAC 40 index is now down to its lowest since mid-August while the DAX is eyeing its October lows of 18,911. This comes with US futures also marked down so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.3% as we look to the session ahead.

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX -0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX flat
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.2%

There's some push and pull in the opening stages but the changes here don't take away from the heavy selling yesterday. As mentioned since last week, the outlook for European indices remain challenging considering the more dour economic outlook in the region. So far today, US futures are also a little more subdued with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%.

Fundamental Overview

Gold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%.

The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also for inflation.

In fact, the market now sees just two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 which is already much less than the four projected by the Fed in September.

In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but for now the short-term trend is to the downside due to the repricing in rate cuts expectations.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now trading near the key trendline around the 2600 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline around the 2400 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong support zone we have around the 2600 level where there’s the confluence of the previous swing low level and the trendline. We can see that we also have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.

If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. More aggressive sellers might lean on this one to position for the break of the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to target the pullback into the next downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

The economy ministry notes that in light of the US election result, renewed uncertainty among German households and firms cannot be ruled out. It goes without saying that Trump tariffs on German exports is of course the big risk to watch out for. But indirectly, Trump's tariffs on China will also have some impact on the EU market. If China finds it tough to export goods to the US, they might look to flood the market in Europe instead. That's some other form of risk to be mindful about.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.0777 following the Trump’s victor, retested it and eventually continued lower. We are now testing another key level at 1.06 handle, and this is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.0777 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0630 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for the break below the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke through the key downward trendline following Trump’s victory and, after a brief pullback, continued higher as the trend in the US Dollar remains skewed to the upside.

We now have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.85 handle.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The US CPI report today is going to be a major catalyst, so it would be better to wait for the release before taking any position. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Given broadcasters' integral role in educating the public on COVID-19 and vaccine deployment, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) has joined the COVID Collaborative, a national assembly of experts and organizations working on unified action against the COVID-19 pandemic. NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith will serve on the Collaborative’s National Advisory Council.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) and the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) today announced the launch of an online toolkit to help local journalists craft COVID-19 vaccine education messages that best resonate with their audiences. The toolkit is designed to provide journalists with information and resources to create news reports, public service announcements and other messages related to vaccine safety, effectiveness and distribution.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the Department of Justice's decision to take no action on the consent decrees governing the performance royalty organizations ASCAP and BMI, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the creation of an advisory committee to the NAB Board of Directors that will provide insights and suggestions on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues. The committee will consist of senior-level broadcasters who are women and people of color, and may include current NAB and NAB Leadership Foundation (NABLF) board members who are committed to advancing DEI issues in broadcasting.

NAB Statement on Increase in Violence Against Asian Americans and March 16 Shootings in Atlanta

Washington, D.C. -- U.S. Rep. Karen Bass (CA-37) will be the inaugural guest in an exclusive new Spotlight Series from the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) featuring members of Congress discussing key initiatives to advance diversity, equity and inclusion and their perspectives on broadcast media.

Washington, D.C. -- National Association of Broadcasters President and CEO Gordon H. Smith announced today his plans to transition to an advisory and advocacy role effective Dec. 31, 2021. The organization’s Chief Operating Officer Curtis LeGeyt has been named the next president and CEO of NAB effective Jan. 1, 2022.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters announced Charlyn Stanberry has joined the organization as vice president of Government Relations, effective today. Stanberry will report to Shawn Donilon, executive vice president of Government Relations.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters has announced the results of the 2021 NAB Radio and Television Board elections. The two-year terms of the elected board members will begin in June 2021.

WASHINGTON, DC -- The National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation announced today the finalists for the 2021 Celebration of Service to America Awards, recognizing outstanding community service by local broadcasters. One winner from each category will be announced during the Celebration of Service to America Awards program.

WASHINGTON, DC -- A bipartisan coalition of 77 members of the House of Represenatives and eight Senators have joined together to introduce resolutions in Congress opposing "any new performance fee, tax, royalty, or other charge" on local broadcast radio stations. The Local Radio Freedom Act (LRFA) signals members of Congress's opposition to any potential legislation that would impose new performance royalties on broadcast radio stations for music airplay.

Washington, D.C. -- Radio and television stations are not adequately compensated for their news content on technology platforms because of an imbalance in market power, according to a new study released today by BIA Advisory Services. The study found that each year broadcasters lose nearly $2 billion in value that they generate for two of the largest technology platforms through publication of their valuable content – particularly local news.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) President and CEO Gordon Smith delivered remarks today at NAB's State Leadership Conference. The annual gathering of 500 radio and TV station owners and executives from all 50 states is designed to educate the broadcast industry to advocate on relevant legislative and regulatory issues. This year’s conference is a virtual-only event.

WASHINGTON, DC -- Fourteen members of the House of Representatives and three Senators have added their support to the Local Radio Freedom Act (LRFA) opposing "any new performance fee, tax, royalty, or other charge" on local broadcast radio stations bringing the number of cosponsors to 138 in the House and 18 in the Senate. The National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) expressed their support for the resolution, which signals members of Congress's opposition to any potential legislation that imposes new performance royalties on broadcast radio stations for music airplay, in a letter to congressional leaders on June 11.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – David Santrella, president of Broadcast Media for Salem Media Group, was elected chairman of the NAB Joint Board of Directors, NAB announced today. Santrella takes over from Jordan Wertlieb, president of Hearst Television, Inc., whose term expired.