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SCCMPod-442 Continuous Prediction of Mortality in the PICU: A Recurrent Neural Network Model in a Single-Center Dataset

As a proof of concept, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model was developed using electronic medical record (EMR) data capable of continuously assessing a child's risk of mortality throughout an ICU stay as a proxy measure of illness severity.




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SCCMPod-445 The Association of Workload and Outcomes in the Pediatric Cardiac ICU

Healthcare workload has emerged as an important metric associated with poor outcomes. To measure workload, studies have used bed occupancy as a surrogate. However, few studies have examined frontline clinician workload and outcomes.




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SCCMPod-447 eSIMPLER: A Dynamic, Electronic Health Record-Integrated Checklist

The increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs) has inspired the need for a more dynamic checklist. Geva et al conducted a before-after quality improvement study by replacing a static checklist with an updated dynamic checklist.




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898b A Few Words, 05-JUN-2020

video version The world is a crazy place right now.. and I’ve been struggling whether I should say something here, whether I should use this podcast as a platform, because this is a show about photography. But right now, it’s about human beings and about how we treat each other, this is about things being … Continue reading "898b A Few Words, 05-JUN-2020"

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899 The Future of Photography Education

In this episode Chris looks at creativity, how it often depends on the right puzzle pieces to come together at the right time, and how a little bit (or a lot) of pressure can bring this all together and allow you to make it into something entirely new. Like the new interactive teaching platform that … Continue reading "899 The Future of Photography Education"

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Join me at Out of Chicago IN-DEPTH and GET $50 OFF

Aug 21-23 2020 will bring you an exciting live online photography workshop weekend with 35+ advanced, exciting sessions from world-class photographers (and I still can’t believe that I got accepted to teach with them! Yey! o/) For each session, two photographers will team up to deep-dive into a topic from multiple angles. And I couldn’t … Continue reading "Join me at Out of Chicago IN-DEPTH and GET $50 OFF"

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  • Tips from the Top Floor

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901 360 Degrees of Freedom

Chris and Jon discuss the latest in 360 degree video, exemplified by Jon’s latest video series VIRTUAL 360 Everest Trek Links: Watch this episode on video VIRTUAL 360 Everest Trek Podcast: The Future of Photography Download the MP3 for this episode Receive TFTTF updates via email Support the show on Patreon or via SEPA

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902 Wild Service Tree

Chris talks about wearing multiple hats, he’s bringing back the MIP, a project that was 10 years in the making, and he talks with his guest Don Komarechka about image theft and about Don’s latest book on macro photography. Check out Don’s Macro Photography book Links: Video: Discussion with don Komarechka Don Komarechka’s homepage Support … Continue reading "902 Wild Service Tree"

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904 Evacuated (Are we obsolete?)

Chris talks about a profound realization he had a few years ago. It’s about the way we learn and why we might benefit from a bit of Dunning Kruger Syndrome in the process. Guest on today’s show: Allan Attridge. We talk about our own obsolescence. A fun topic for a weekend for shure ???? Watch … Continue reading "904 Evacuated (Are we obsolete?)"

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906 Virtual Production

Chris takes worldwide pinhole day as an excuse to talk a bit about the oldest photography technique. The discussion with director, writer and photographer Jeremiah Chechik takes the two into the depths of the latest tech in Hollywood: virtual production. Links: Watch this on YouTube Jeremiah Chechik – Homepage Worldwide Pinhole Day Download the MP3 … Continue reading "906 Virtual Production"

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910 Welcome to Dongle Town

Let’s talk about photo road trips, dongles, an exercise in spotting humanity, smartphones closing in on us, astrophotography and big satellite constellations. Plus: Where is TFTTF really located on the spectrum of photography podcasts? Topics: [OTHER] Welcome to Dongle Town : Chris has figured out an interesting way to vlog from his car with a … Continue reading "910 Welcome to Dongle Town"

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912 The Locksmith’s Paradox

What do locksmiths have to do with photography? How about expoplanets? Find out on today’s episode. (Episode artwork: DALL-E 2) Topics: [TOOL] SD Recovery : An amazing look at the technology that is used in data recovery to read a broken SD card. [SPACE, PHOTO] Finding Exo Planets : Finding exoplanets has everything to do … Continue reading "912 The Locksmith’s Paradox"

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917 Are Starlink the Good Ones?

A look at exponential growth (it’s the smartphones), an update about the state of satellite streak mitigation to keep the astro photographers happy, two history lessons (hello Lytro, hello Magnum) and a ground-breaking photo of a planet. Topics: [PHOTO] Have the Smartphones Won? : Here’s an interesting animation that shows various cameras since the 1950s … Continue reading "917 Are Starlink the Good Ones?"

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919 And I Froze

Chris invites you into the world of building new neural pathways by talking about one of the biggest learning experiences he had in a long time. Also: how about using video tools to inspire some new photo editing tools? Topics: [AI, PHOTO] Greg Rutkowski : Fantasy artist Greg Rutkowski is not happy. His name shows … Continue reading "919 And I Froze"

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920 Death of a Workhorse

Chris brings you a bit of a different episode today because his main production machine has just died. Want to support? Go to tfttf.com/support Topics: [OTHER] Pellworm : We spent a week on Pellworm, a 37 square kilometer island located in the Wadden Sea. We’ve taken pictures too. [COOL] Lost Places – Horror-Hospital … AI … Continue reading "920 Death of a Workhorse"

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921 Video Editing Game Changer

Chris’ main workstation is still out, but a replacement is getting closer, in form of a fan-less compact laptop that will outperform the previous iMac Pro by a decent margin. This is mainly possible thanks to your support! Topics: [PHOTO] Flat Lenses Are Here : Flat lenses are finally becoming a reality. Just not in … Continue reading "921 Video Editing Game Changer"

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924 You’re Hoarding It Wrong

Topics: [COOL] Register Now: Eastern European Photo Road Trip : The 10-day Eastern European Photo Road Trip from Berlin via Dresden/Prague/Vienna/Budapest to Transylvania is now officially open for registration! The dates are: Tour 1 (Berlin to Transylvania) Sep 2-11 2023 and Tour 2 (Transylvania to Berlin) Sep 14-23 2023. If you’re interested, send Chris a … Continue reading "924 You’re Hoarding It Wrong"

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926 Digitizing 88-Year-Old Photos, AI Protests, Relaunches

On this episode: JUST RELEASED: the third edition of The Film Photography Handbook. JUST RELAUNCHED: chrismarquardt.com (now offers information about my services in training, consulting, production, and photography as well as some references to past work). COMING UP: The 10-day Eastern Europe photo road trip in Sep 2023 for amateur and professional photographers to visit … Continue reading "926 Digitizing 88-Year-Old Photos, AI Protests, Relaunches"

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928 One Minute Six Hundred Pics

TFOP 245 discusses a new camera purchase and a conversation about historical photos and gold-plating photography on glass || Neurapix is a German startup that has developed AI-based software that can learn from previously edited images and apply the same edits to new photos at a fast rate || Two lawsuits against AI || xkcd … Continue reading "928 One Minute Six Hundred Pics"

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929 No Drama in Photo Land

Today we’ll touch on the Adobe content analytics issue, a bit of Flickr pro drama, big movies shot on film and a really interesting firmware from Canon. Topics: [WORKSHOPS] Almost Full: Eastern European Photo Roadtrip : The September Eastern European tour is filling up. The Sep 2-11 leg has one spot left, the Sep 14-23 … Continue reading "929 No Drama in Photo Land"

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932 You’ve Been Tricked!

Yes, they have been tricking you. Millions of albums sold that were produced with cheap plastic gear. Inconceivable! Also on today’s show: a few words on dpreview’s demise (and resurrection), some thoughts (and a request for feedback) on guilt, fear and frustrations in photography. Plus thoughts on CJ Chilvers’ latest post about the gear race … Continue reading "932 You’ve Been Tricked!"

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933 Hawk Birdhouse and the Mickey Mouse Camera

Presenting jam-packed newsreel, a new book, French influencer law, semantic segmentation in real-time, dpreview’s archive, a new film by Fuji, the Mickey-Mouse-Leica and DALL-E coming to a browser near you. Special guest Allan Attridge of Two Hosers fame (he now also builds furniture on YouTube) and Chris talk about life, creating youtube videos and growing … Continue reading "933 Hawk Birdhouse and the Mickey Mouse Camera"

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She wants to know what are best practices on flagging bad responses and cleaning survey data and detecting bad responses. Any suggestions from the tidyverse or crunch.io?

A colleague who works in a field that uses a lot of survey research asks: Can you recommend papers about detecting bad survey responses? We have some such methods where I work, but I’m curious what the Census Bureau and … Continue reading




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Where have all the count words gone? In defense of “fewer” and “among”

This is cranky linguist Bob. The lack of count markers is starting to bug me. To wit… Usage of “fewer” vs. “less” The prescriptive rule in English is that “fewer” applies to groups of countable objects whereas “less” applies to … Continue reading




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“Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections”

Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse Shapiro write: Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic … Continue reading




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“Things are Getting So Politically Polarized We Can’t Measure How Politically Polarized Things are Getting”

Sociologist Claude Fischer writes: Polarization has been less a matter of Americans becoming extremists—most remain centrists or oblivious to politics—but more that politically engaged Americans have increasingly aligned their views, values, and even their practices, from where they live to … Continue reading




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948.

Data-share this, pal: As the man said, you have no obligation to share any of your data and I have no obligation to believe anything you say.




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443.

As forwarded to us by Max Shepsi: I’m starting to see a pattern here!




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Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development

I was talking with an economist today about the recent prize given to the authors of the very influential 2001 article, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. According to my colleague, many economists have issues with that … Continue reading




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Columbia Surgery Prof Fake Data Update . . . (yes, he’s still being promoted on the university webpage)

Someone pointed me to this news article with the delightful url, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/science/sam-yoon-columbia-cancer-surgeon-5-more-retractions.html: Columbia Cancer Surgeon Notches 5 More Retractions for Suspicious Data The chief of a cancer surgery division at Columbia University this week had five research articles retracted and … Continue reading




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“It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened.”

Campos quotes a comment from a thread on RFK Jr. and his running mate: It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened. He points to this link: The physiologist … Continue reading




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Carroll/Langer: Credulous, scientist-as-hero reporting from a podcaster who should know better

tl;dr. To the extent that healing is important, I think it’s important not to overstate evidence for speculative claims about what works. Individual and societal resources are limited. If you want to say something like, “Sure, this is pie-in-the-sky research, … Continue reading




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What is the purpose of a methods section?

A frustrating aspect of science papers is that the methods section doesn’t fully describe what was actually done. It can take a lot of sleuthing to figure out how to reconstruct published results—and that doesn’t even get into all the … Continue reading




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Supporting Bayesian modeling workflows with iterative filtering for multiverse analysis

Anna Riha, Nikolas Siccha, Antti Oulasvirta, and Aki Vehtari write: When building statistical models for Bayesian data analysis tasks, required and optional iterative adjustments and different modelling choices can give rise to numerous candidate models. In particular, checks and evaluations … Continue reading




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3M misconduct regarding knowledge of “forever chemicals”: As is so often the case, the problem was in open sight for a long time before anything was done

Horrifying story here from Sharon Lerner how chemical products company 3M (which has successfully branded itself as the cuddly people behind Post-it notes) polluted the world’s water supply and covered it up for decades. It features several issues we’ve discussed … Continue reading




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ChatGPT o1-preview can code Stan

This is Bob. Yes, but can it Stan? The first few instantiations of ChatGPT haven’t been so good at Stan. This is perhaps not surprising, because there’s relatively little written about Stan on the web compared to, say, Python, C++, … Continue reading




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Which book should you read first, Active Statistics or Regression and Other Stories?

Kiran Gauthier writes: I was checking the web pages for Active Statistics and Regression and Other Stories and although I saw that Active Statistics is meant to accompany Regression and Other Stories, I was wondering how you would recommend reading … Continue reading




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Postdoc opportunity! to work with me here at Columbia! on Bayesian workflow! for contamination models! With some wonderful collaborators!!

Laboratory assays are central to much of biomedical research. My colleagues and I recently received a research grant to do better assays using Bayesian inference. Beyond the usual challenges of fitting nonlinear hierarchical models to real data that can sometimes … Continue reading




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Flatiron Institute hiring: postdocs, joint faculty, and permanent research positions

This is Bob. We’re hiring It’s that time of year again and we’re hiring at all levels at the Center for Computational Mathematics (CCM) at Flatiron Institute (the in-house research arm of Simons Foundation). As they are listed, job ads … Continue reading




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Prediction markets and the need for “dumb money” as well as “smart money”

tl;dr. Prediction markets give good forecasts because they attract “smart money” that will fix any gaps between current odds and best available information. The “smart money” is in turn motivated by the profits they can take from “dumb money” coming … Continue reading




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“Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail.

Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading




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NYT catches up to Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

A colleague pointed to this news article, “Do People in ‘Blue Zones’ Actually Live Longer?”, and wrote that I might find it blog-worthy. I replied that, yeah, the topic is blog-worthy enough that it’s already appeared on the blog, with … Continue reading




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Freakonomics does it again (not in a good way). Jeez, these guys are credulous:

From the team that brought you “good-looking parents are 36% more likely to have a baby daughter as their first child than a baby son” and “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually … Continue reading




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A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past vote

A colleague writes: Have you seen this article by Nate Cohn at the New York Times? A few things in it seemed weird. For one, he writes: The tendency for recall vote to overstate the winner of the last election … Continue reading




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What makes an MCMC sampler GPU-friendly?

(This post is by Charles) Art Owen (Stanford) read our paper on nesting Rhat to assess convergence in the many-short-chains regime of MCMC. He made a lot of great comments and asked some clarification questions. Notably: It wasn’t clear to me … Continue reading




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Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) for an astronomy problem

Harrison Siegel pointed us to this project with Maximiliano Isi and Will Farr on gravitational-wave analysis. The compare models using predictive evaluation, in particular leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO), as discussed here and here. Siegel writes: We discuss our implementation of the … Continue reading




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StanCon 2024 Oxford: recorded talks are now released!

(This post is by Charles) The title says it all: recordings of StanCon 2024 are now available on Stan’s youtube channel. We’re happy to make the content of StanCon 2024 accessible, even to those who couldn’t make it in person. … Continue reading




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Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computer

Just in time for Halloween, we have a scarily effective implementation of Stan on the web, full of a veritable haunted house of delicious treats. Brian Ward, Jeff Soules, and Jeremy Magland write: Stan Playground is a new open-source, browser-based … Continue reading




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“Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???”

Shane Frederick writes: Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=??? Shane sends me this kind … Continue reading




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Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?

This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading