li The Value of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Mar 4, 2020 Mar 4, 2020Growing concern around climate change has ignited recent interest in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies and generated a series of studies on its global market potential. Full Article
li The Politics of Climate Change: A Conversation with Joseph Aldy By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Mar 9, 2020 Mar 9, 2020Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, speaks with Joseph Aldy, professor of the practice of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School. The discussion covers Aldy's experience in government service, and the prospects for meaningful and effective climate change policy in the United States. Full Article
li Greener Stimulus? Economic Recovery and Climate Policy By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Mar 26, 2020 Mar 26, 2020In this edition of Columbia Energy Exchange, host Jason Bordoff and Professor Joseph Aldy explore the role of climate-change and broader environmental policy in the U.S. federal government’s emergency economic stimulus funding package. Full Article
li Columbia University Professor Scott Barrett Compares Global Responses to COVID-19 and Climate Change in Special Edition of "Environmental Insights" By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Mar 27, 2020 Mar 27, 2020Columbia University Professor Scott Barrett assessed the massive global efforts underway to address COVID-19 and the potential impacts of the pandemic on our lives in the future in a special episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. Listen to the interview here. Full Article
li Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks. Full Article
li Cost Effectiveness Analysis and Finding the Best Policies to Fight COVID-19 By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 3, 2020 Apr 3, 2020Robert Stavins: Cost Effectiveness Analysis and Finding the Best Policies to Fight COVID-19 Full Article
li Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean: October 2019 Workshop Summary & Recommendations By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 6, 2020 Apr 6, 2020The Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative and the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute co-hosted a workshop with the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government entitled, Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean. The event convened global thought leaders, diverse stakeholders, and subject matter experts to begin developing a framework for tackling Arctic marine plastic pollution as one of the focus areas for the Icelandic Chairmanship. Full Article
li Organizational Responses to COVID-19 and Climate Change: A Conversation with Rebecca Henderson By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 8, 2020 Apr 8, 2020Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard University, shared her perspectives on how large organizations are changing in response to the coronavirus pandemic and climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” Full Article
li Harvard Business School Professor Rebecca Henderson Outlines Ways Organizations are Changing in Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic and Climate Change in New Edition of "Environmental Insights" By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 8, 2020 Apr 8, 2020Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard University, shared her perspectives on how large organizations are changing in response to the coronavirus pandemic and climate change in the newest episode of "Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program," a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. Listen to the interview here. Listen to the interview here. Full Article
li New Committee to Advise Bacow on Sustainability Goals By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 20, 2020 Apr 20, 2020Harvard University has created a Presidential Committee on Sustainability (PCS) to advise President Larry Bacow and the University's leadership on sustainability vision, goals, strategy, and partnerships. The Harvard Gazette spoke with committee chairs Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor; John Holdren, the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard Kennedy School; and Katie Lapp, executive vice president, about why it is so important to act now; the role of the PCS in developing collaborative and innovative projects; and how the campus community can get involved. Full Article
li Next Moves on Climate Policy: A Conversation with Sue Biniaz By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: May 8, 2020 May 8, 2020Sue Biniaz, former lead climate negotiator for the United States, shared her thoughts on the postponement of COP-26, and on the possible re-engagement of the U.S. in the international effort to address climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. Full Article
li Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 19:21:40 +0000 This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in… Full Article
li Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks. Full Article
li Oil Markets Provide a Glimpse of the Post-Pandemic Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 7, 2020 Apr 7, 2020Henry Kissinger warns that many existing domestic and international institutions that have helped govern the past decades will not survive the Covid-19 crisis. He is surely correct. Full Article
li Transatlantic Dialogue: The Missing Link in Europe’s Post-Covid-19 Green Deal? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 10, 2020 Apr 10, 2020This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives. Full Article
li There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 21, 2020 Apr 21, 2020Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order. Full Article
li So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings. Full Article
li Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 29, 2020 Apr 29, 2020The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets. Full Article
li Winners and losers of Tunisia’s parliamentary elections By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 11 Oct 2019 13:30:11 +0000 Tunisians voted in parliamentary elections on Sunday, their second of three elections scheduled this fall. About 41 percent of registered voters turned out to vote, slightly lower than the 49 percent in the first round of the presidential elections held Sept. 15. The elections will create a highly fractured parliament, with no party or list receiving more… Full Article
li Reforming Tunisia’s military courts By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2019 21:44:42 +0000 As Tunisia’s newly-elected parliamentarians take their seats, a number of democratic reforms await their attention. Amnesty International has already highlighted five key areas, including the state of emergency, security force abuses, transitional justice, the constitutional court, and the death penalty. To this list we would humbly add a sixth: reforming, if not abolishing, the military… Full Article
li From Islamists to Muslim Democrats: The case of Tunisia’s Ennahda By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 20 Jan 2020 17:03:19 +0000 Full Article
li Why is the United States So Bad at Foreign Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 13, 2020 Jan 13, 2020Stephen Walt writes that the United States' unusual historical experience, geographic isolation, large domestic market, and general ignorance have weakened its ability to make viable foreign-policy strategies. Full Article
li What Makes for a Moral Foreign Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 21, 2020 Jan 21, 2020Joseph Nye's new book rates the efforts of presidents from FDR to Trump. Full Article
li Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography about Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 3, 2020 Feb 3, 2020The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research. Full Article
li The Need for Creative and Effective Nuclear Security Vulnerability Assessment and Testing By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 10, 2020 Feb 10, 2020Realistic, creative vulnerability assessment and testing are critical to finding and fixing nuclear security weaknesses and avoiding over-confidence. Both vulnerability assessment and realistic testing are needed to ensure that nuclear security systems are providing the level of protection required. Systems must be challenged by experts thinking like adversaries, trying to find ways to overcome them. Effective vulnerability assessment and realistic testing are more difficult in the case of insider threats, and special attention is needed. Organizations need to find ways to give people the mission and the incentives to find nuclear security weaknesses and suggest ways they might be fixed. With the right approaches and incentives in place, effective vulnerability assessment and testing can be a key part of achieving and sustaining high levels of nuclear security. Full Article
li How Do Past Presidents Rank in Foreign Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 2, 2020 Mar 2, 2020How do presidents incorporate morality into decisions involving the national interest? Moral considerations explain why Truman, who authorized the use of nuclear weapons in Japan during World War II, later refused General MacArthur's request to use them in China during the Korean War. What is contextual intelligence, and how does it explain why Bush 41 is ranked first in foreign policy, but Bush 43 is found wanting? Is it possible for a president to lie in the service of the public interest? In this episode, Professor Joseph S. Nye considers these questions as he explores the role of morality in presidential decision-making from FDR to Trump. Full Article
li Secrecy, Public Relations and the British Nuclear Debate By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 5, 2020 Mar 5, 2020The opening of the British archives has seen historians uncover the secrets of the UK's nuclear weapons programme since the 1990s. While a growing number have sought to expose these former secrets, there has been less effort to consider government secrecy itself. What was kept a secret, when and why? And how and why, notably from the 1980s, did the British government decide to officially disclose greater information about the British nuclear weapons programme to Members of Parliament, journalists, defence academics and the tax-paying general public. Full Article
li Public Testimony on Trump Administration Funding for Nuclear Theft Preventing Programs By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 31, 2020 Mar 31, 2020A nuclear explosion detonated anywhere by a terrorist group would be a global humanitarian, economic, and political catastrophe. The current COVID-19 pandemic reminds us not to ignore prevention of and preparation for low-probability, high-consequence disasters. For nuclear terrorism, while preparation is important, prevention must be the top priority. The most effective strategy for keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists is to ensure that nuclear materials and facilities around the world have strong and sustainable security. Every president for more than two decades has made strengthening nuclear security around the globe a priority. This includes the Trump administration, whose 2018 Nuclear Posture Review states: “[n]uclear terrorism remains among the most significant threats to the security of the United States, allies, and partners.” Full Article
li Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low. Full Article
li So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings. Full Article
li Poll: What the American Public Likes and Hates about Trump's Nuclear Policies By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 27, 2020 Apr 27, 2020The authors conducted a study which highlights how the U.S. public as a whole and various demographic groups view President Donald Trump's positions on nuclear weapons. Full Article
li Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 6, 2020 May 6, 2020Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer. Full Article
li Getting Smart on Pandemics: Intelligence in the Wake of COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 17, 2020 Apr 17, 2020This episode of Horns of a Dilemma touches on whether the failure to properly anticipate and warn about the novel coronavirus constitutes an intelligence failure, what changes might be required in the intelligence community in the wake of the pandemic, and what type of investigation or inquiry might be appropriate in order to learn lessons and incorporate changes for both the intelligence community and the whole of government moving forward. Full Article
li There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 21, 2020 Apr 21, 2020Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order. Full Article
li So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings. Full Article
li Poll: What the American Public Likes and Hates about Trump's Nuclear Policies By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 27, 2020 Apr 27, 2020The authors conducted a study which highlights how the U.S. public as a whole and various demographic groups view President Donald Trump's positions on nuclear weapons. Full Article
li How the Pentagon Is Struggling to Stay out of Politics By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 28, 2020 Apr 28, 2020 Gen. Mark. A. Milley’s job is to provide sound military advice to the president. But at a deeper level, his responsibility is to safeguard the independence and integrity of the armed forces. The last thing the country needs is a military leadership that’s trying to curry favor with any commander in chief, particularly one who’s hungry for affirmation. Full Article
li Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 29, 2020 Apr 29, 2020The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets. Full Article
li Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 6, 2020 May 6, 2020Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer. Full Article
li Steps to Improve Cloud Computing in the Public Sector By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 21 Jul 2010 09:58:00 -0400 Executive SummaryGovernment information technology is subject to a variety of rules, regulations, and procurement policies. Computing is treated differently depending on whether the platform is based on desktops, laptops, mobile devices, or remote file servers known as cloud computing. There are differences between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government, as well as in the level of privacy and security expected for various applications. Some people perceive higher security on desktop or laptop computers and lower security with the cloud because the latter’s information is stored remotely through third-party commercial providers. In reality, though, there are serious security threats to all electronic information regardless of platform, and cloud server providers often take security more seriously than mass consumers or government officials employing weak passwords on their local computers. In this paper, I review current federal IT policy and discuss rules, practices, and procedures that limit innovation. There are a variety of obstacles that make it difficult for policymakers to take full advantage of the technological revolution that has unfolded in recent years. After outlining these issues, I make recommendations on policy changes required to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of federal computing. My specific recommendations include: Public officials should develop more consistent rules on computing across desktop, laptop, mobile, and cloud platforms. The use of video, collaboration, and social networking should be authorized for congressional offices. This would make legislative branch policy consistent with that of the executive branch. Judicial branch computing should be modernized, with greater emphasis on cloud computing. There should be a more uniform certification process for federal agencies. Right now, each agency is responsible for certifying its own applications. It makes sense to have a “joint authorization board” with the power to review management services and certify particular products for use across the government. Congress should update the Electronic Communications Privacy Act to change the process by which law enforcement agents obtain electronic information. Instead of using a prosecutor’s subpoena, legislation should require a “probable cause” search warrant that is approved by a judge. This would provide greater safeguards in terms of online content, pictures, geolocation data, and e-mails. Privacy rights should be placed on the same footing regardless of whether a person is using desktop or cloud computing. It makes little sense to have weaker standards on one platform than another. Consumers and government decision-makers expect the same level of protection whether they are accessing information on a desktop, laptop, mobile, or cloud storage system. Congress should amend the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act to strengthen penalties for unwanted intrusion into computing systems. The law has inconsistent penalties and prosecutors have found that it is hard to prosecute cyber-crimes. Apps.gov represents a big step forward and government use should be expanded because it makes procurement easier and speeds public sector innovation. It is a model of how the government can reinvent itself through digital technology in ways that improve efficiency and effectiveness. Countries need to harmonize their laws on cloud computing so as to reduce current inconsistencies in regard to privacy, data storage, security processes, and personnel training, There should be mechanisms for data exchange that encourage portability across platforms. We should avoid vendor lock-in that precludes data exchange. Data on uptime, downtime, recover time, archiving, and maintenance schedules would help build public trust by providing information on computing performance. Downloads Download the Full Paper Authors Darrell M. West Image Source: Martin Barraud Full Article
li Moving to the Cloud: How the Public Sector Can Leverage the Power of Cloud Computing By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 21 Jul 2010 10:00:00 -0400 Event Information July 21, 201010:00 AM - 12:00 PM EDTFalk AuditoriumThe Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Ave., NWWashington, DC Register for the EventThe U.S. government spends billions of dollars each year on computer hardware, software and file servers that may no longer be necessary. Currently, the public sector makes relatively little use of cloud computing, even though studies suggest substantial government savings from a migration to more Internet-based computing with shared resources.On July 21, the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings hosted a policy forum on steps to enhance public sector adoption of cloud computing innovations. Brookings Vice President Darrell West moderated a panel of experts, including David McClure of the General Services Administration, Dawn Leaf of the National Institute for Standards and Technology, and Katie Ratte of the Federal Trade Commission. West released a paper detailing the policy changes required to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of federal computing. Audio Moving to the Cloud: How the Public Sector Can Leverage the Power of Cloud Computing Transcript Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf)Download Dawn Leaf's PowerPoint Presentation (.pdf)Download David McClure's PowerPoint Presentation (.pdf) Event Materials 20100721_cloud_computing0721_cloud_computing_leaf0721_cloud_computing_mcclure Full Article
li Osiraq Redux: A Crisis Simulation of an Israeli Strike on the Iranian Nuclear Program By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:23:00 -0500 In December 2009, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy conducted a day-long simulation of the diplomatic and military fallout that could result from an Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. In this Middle East Memo, Kenneth M. Pollack analyzes the critical decisions each side made during the wargame.The simulation was conducted as a three-move game with three separate country teams. One team represented a hypothetical American National Security Council, a second team represented a hypothetical Israeli cabinet, and a third team represented a hypothetical Iranian Supreme National Security Council. The U.S. team consisted of approximately ten members, all of whom had served in senior positions in the U.S. government and U.S. military. The Israel team consisted of a half-dozen American experts on Israel with close ties to Israeli decision-makers, and who, in some cases, had spent considerable time in Israel. Some members of the Israel team had also served in the U.S. government. The Iran team consisted of a half-dozen American experts on Iran, some of whom had lived and/or traveled extensively in Iran, are of Iranian extraction, and/or had served in the U.S. government with responsibility for Iran.Read more » Downloads Download Authors Kenneth M. Pollack Full Article
li Assessing the Obstacles and Opportunities in a Future Israeli-Syrian-American Peace Negotiation By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 25 May 2010 12:45:00 -0400 Introduction: In the ebb and flow of Middle East diplomacy, the two interrelated issues of an Israeli-Syrian peace settlement and Washington’s bilateral relationship with Damascus have gone up and down on Washington’s scale of importance. The election of Barack Obama raised expectations that the United States would give the two issues the priority they had not received during the eight years of the George W. Bush administration. Candidate Obama promised to assign a high priority to the resuscitation of the Arab-Israeli peace process, and separately to “engage” with Iran and Syria (as recommended by the Iraq Study Group in 2006).In May 2009, shortly after assuming office, President Obama sent the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, and the senior director for the Middle East in the National Security Council, Daniel Shapiro, to Damascus to open a dialogue with Bashar al-Asad’s regime. Several members of Congress also travelled to Syria early in Obama’s first year, including the chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, John Kerry, and the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Howard Berman. In addition, when the president appointed George Mitchell as special envoy to the Middle East, Mitchell named as his deputy Fred Hof, a respected expert on Syria and the Israeli-Syrian dispute. Last summer, both Mitchell and Hof visited Damascus and began their give and take with Syria. And yet, after this apparent auspicious beginning, neither the bilateral relationship between the United States and Syria, nor the effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian negotiation has gained much traction. Damascus must be chagrined by the fact that when the Arab-Israeli peace process is discussed now, it is practically equated with the Israeli-Palestinian track. This paper analyzes the difficulties confronting Washington’s and Jerusalem’s respective Syria policies and offers an approach for dealing with Syria. Many of the recommendations stem from lessons resulting from the past rounds of negotiations, so it is important to understand what occurred. Downloads Download Full Report - English Authors Itamar Rabinovich Full Article
li Recalibrating the Egypt-Israel Relationship By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 21 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500 Introduction: There is an Egyptian proverb that says those who worry about demons will tend to run into them. Like much folk wisdom, it has solid psychological foundations; the likelihood of a problem rearing its head often appears to be exacerbated by constantly fretting about it. Ever since Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president of Egypt on February 11, 2011, the demon named “Now What?” has been keeping the Israeli government up at night. On August 18, it finally leapt up at them.That day, a group of armed men attacked Israeli buses, as well as civilian and military vehicles north of Eilat, near the Egyptian border. Eight Israelis, both civilians and soldiers, were killed. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) set off in hot pursuit, shooting at the attackers from a helicopter. The helicopter crew either failed to notice, or ignored, that they were shooting over the Egyptian side of the border. In the pursuit, three Egyptians— an officer and two enlisted men—were killed and another three later died of their wounds. Israeli minister of defense Ehud Barak, while blaming Palestinian groups for the assault, made comments to the effect that the attacks were largely Egypt’s fault as there had been a major security collapse in Egypt since the former regime had been ousted six months earlier. The way matters unfolded over the next few days pointedly illustrated the answer to a question that had been asked repeatedly both by international media and the Israeli government since Hosni Mubarak’s ouster: What did Egypt’s January 25 Revolution mean for Israel? The simplest answer is that it is no longer business as usual. The relationship between Egypt and Israel has changed and both countries will have to navigate new waters carefully and wisely. Downloads Download the Full Memo Authors Mirette F. Mabrouk Image Source: � Asmaa Waguih / Reuters Full Article
li The Lesser of Two Evils: The Salafi Turn to Party Politics in Egypt By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 01 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400 Last winter, Salafi parties in Egypt proved themselves a formidable political force, winning a quarter of the vote in the country’s first elections in the post-Mubarak era. For many in Washington, the unexpected strength of Egypt’s conservative religious groups raised unsettling questions about the future of U.S.-Egyptian relations and America’s security interests in the region. Will the political success of Salafis turn Egypt into an anti-American power and strengthen jihadist groups like al-Qa’ida that are bent on using violence against the United States and its allies? In the Saban Center Middle East Memo, William McCants, a Middle East specialist at CNA and adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University, examines the implications of the Salafis’ turn to, and success in, electoral politics. McCants argues that while political participation may not moderate Salafis’ positions on social issues, it will likely erode the strength of their most extreme and violent affiliates. For this reason, America’s interests may be best served when Salafis play a role in post-revolution politics. Downloads The Lesser of Two Evils: The Salafi Turn to Party Politics in Egypt Authors William McCants Image Source: Mohamed Abd El Ghany / Reuters Full Article
li Unraveling the Syria Mess By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 08 Aug 2012 00:00:00 -0400 The Saban Center for Middle East Policy joined with the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War in June 2012 to host a one-day crisis simulation that explored the implications of spillover from the ongoing violence in Syria. The simulation examined how the United States and its allies might address worsening instability in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, and elsewhere in the Middle East as a result of the internecine conflict in Syria. The Saban Center’s Middle East Memo, “Unraveling the Syria Mess: A Crisis Simulation of Spillover from the Syrian Civil War,” authored by simulation conveners Kenneth M. Pollack, Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Marisa C. Sullivan, presents key lessons and observations from the exercise. Among the key findings: A humanitarian crisis alone is unlikely to spur the international community to take action in Syria. Turkey is a linchpin in any effort to end the fighting in Syria, but Washington and Ankara may not see eye-to-eye on what the end game should be. U.S. history in Iraq and Lebanon make intervention there unlikely, even if spillover causes a renewal of large-scale violence. The simulation suggested a tension between U.S. political antipathy toward greater involvement in Syria and the potential strategic desirability of early action. Unraveling the Syria Mess Downloads Download the paper Video Unraveling the Syria Mess Authors Kenneth M. PollackFrederick W. KaganKimberly KaganMarisa C. Sullivan Image Source: © Stringer . / Reuters Full Article
li The Military Dynamics of the Syrian Civil War and Options for Limited U.S. Intervention By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 12 Aug 2013 09:00:00 -0400 The crisis in Syria continues with no end in sight, and in the Saban Center's latest Middle East Memo, Breaking the Stalemate: The Military Dynamics of the Syrian Civil War and Options for Limited U.S. Intervention, Saban Center Senior Fellow Kenneth Pollack argues that until there is a breakthrough on the battlefield, there will be no breakthroughs at the negotiating table. In his paper, Pollack lays out the military advantages and disadvantages of both the opposition and the regime's forces, and looks at how different opportunities for U.S. intervention can affect those critical dynamics. This analysis provides a much-needed counterpoint to the debate over the possible cost of U.S. options in Syria with an analysis of their likely impact on the conflict. Highlights include: The strengths and weaknesses of the opposition, including: greater numbers, a history of deprivation of political power, the aid of Islamist militias affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups, and support from Arab and Western countries. The strengths and weaknesses of the regime, including: motivation to defend against a determined majority, a geographic advantage, the remnants of the Syrian armed forces, help of foreign contingents like Hizballah, and the support of foreign countries like Iran and reportedly Russia and China. Options for U.S. interventions to break the stalemate, including: Training and equipping the opposition. Stopping the resupply of the regime in order to diminish its ability to generate firepower. Attacking regime infrastructure targets, such as military bases, power-generation plants and transportation choke points like bridges. Establishing and maintaining a no-fly zone. Engaging in a tactical air campaign against regime ground forces. Downloads Download the paper Authors Kenneth M. Pollack Image Source: © George Ourfalian / Reuters Full Article
li Kurdistan Rising: To Acknowledge or Ignore the Unraveling of Iraq By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400 This summer, the world has watched as an al Qaeda offshoot, the Islamic State group, launched a militant offensive into Iraq, seizing large swaths of land. This Center for Middle East Policy’s Middle East Memo, Kurdistan Rising: To Acknowledge or Ignore the Unraveling of Iraq, examines how the fall of Iraq’s key city of Mosul has changed matters for Kurds in Iraq, and the necessity for American policymakers to take stock of the reality of the Kurdistan Region in this “post-Mosul” world. Highlights: • A look at the Kurds of Iraq, their history and how the United States has largely spurned a partnership with them. Having been autonomous in Iraq since 1991, the Kurds heeded the aspirations of the United States in 2003 to assist in the removal of the Baath regime of Saddam Hussein, and played by the rules of the game established in the post-2003 period, albeit unwillingly at times. However, they have consistently refused to follow a path that would result in relinquishing the powers they enjoy. They have even taken steps to extend their autonomy to the point of having economic sovereignty within a federal Iraq, thus bringing them into serious dispute with Baghdad and the government of Nouri al-Maliki and earning the rebuke of the United States. • An examination of how, since 2011, failed U.S. and European policies aimed at healing Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic fissures have contributed to the current situation. By so strongly embracing the concept of Iraq’s integrity as crucial to American interests in the region, key allies and partners have been marginalized along the way. • Policy recommendations for the United States and its western allies, given that the Kurdistan region now stands on the threshold of restructuring Iraq according to its federal or confederal design, or exercising its full right to self-determination and seceding from Iraq. By ignoring the realities of Kurdish strength in Iraq, U.S. and European powers run the risk of losing influence in the only part of Iraq that can be called a success story, and antagonizing what could be a key ally in an increasingly unpredictable Middle East. Downloads Kurdistan Rising: To Acknowledge or Ignore the Unraveling of Iraq Authors Gareth Stansfield Image Source: © Azad Lashkari / Reuters Full Article
li Extending soldiers’ assignments may help the military maintain readiness By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 14 Apr 2020 17:12:35 +0000 Following President Trump’s mid-March declaration that the COVID-19 outbreak constituted a “national emergency,” the Department of Defense (DoD) moved swiftly to implement travel restrictions for DoD employees intended to “preserve force readiness, limit the continuing spread of the virus, and preserve the health and welfare” of military service members, their families and DoD civilians. In… Full Article
li COVID-19 and military readiness: Preparing for the long game By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:56:42 +0000 With the saga over the U.S.S. Teddy Roosevelt aircraft carrier starting to fade from the headlines, a larger question about the American armed forces and COVID-19 remains. How will we keep our military combat-ready, and thus fully capable of deterrence globally, until a vaccine is available to our troops? It will also be crucial to… Full Article