k

The Destabilizing Danger of Cyberattacks on Missile Systems

2 July 2019

Dr Patricia Lewis

Research Director, Conflict, Science & Transformation; Director, International Security Programme

Dr Beyza Unal

Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme
‘Left-of-launch’ attacks that aim to disable enemy missile systems may increase the chance of them being used, not least because the systems are so vulnerable.

2019-07-02-NKMissile.jpg

This undated photo released by North Korea's news agency in March 2017 shows the launch of four ballistic missiles during a military drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea. Photo: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

After President Trump decided to halt a missile attack on Iran in response to the downing of a US drone, it was revealed that the US had conducted cyberattacks on Iranian weapons systems to prevent Iran launching missiles against US assets in the region.

This ‘left-of-launch’ strategy – the pre-emptive action to prevent an adversary launch missiles – has been part of the US missile defence strategy for some time now. President George W Bush asked the US military and intelligence community to infiltrate the supply chain of North Korean missiles. It was claimed that the US hacked the North Korean ballistic missile programme, causing a failed ballistic missile test, in 2012.

It was not clear then – or now – whether these ‘left-of-launch’ cyberattacks aimed at North Korea were successful as described or whether they were primarily a bluff. But that is somewhat irrelevant; the belief in the possibility and the understanding of the potential impact of such cyber capabilities undermines North Korean or Iranian confidence in their abilities to launch their missiles. In times of conflict, loss of confidence in weapons systems may lead to escalation.

In other words, the adversary may be left with no option but to take the chance to use these missiles or to lose them in a conflict setting. ‘Left of launch’ is a dangerous game. If it is based on a bluff, it could be called upon and lead to deterrence failure. If it is based on real action, then it could create an asymmetrical power struggle. If the attacker establishes false confidence in the power of a cyber weapon, then it might lead to false signalling and messaging.

This is the new normal. The cat-and-mouse game has to be taken seriously, not least because missile systems are so vulnerable.

There are several ways an offensive cyber operation against missile systems might work. These include exploiting missile designs, altering software or hardware, or creating clandestine pathways to the missile command and control systems.

They can also be attacked in space, targeting space assets and their link to strategic systems.

Most missile systems rely, at least in part, on digital information that comes from or via space-based or space-dependent assets such as: communication satellites; satellites that provide position, navigation and timing (PNT) information (for example GPS or Galileo); weather satellites to help predict flight paths, accurate targeting and launch conditions; and remote imagery satellites to assist with information and intelligence for the planning and targeting.

Missile launches themselves depend on 1) the command and control systems of the missiles, 2) the way in which information is transmitted to the missile launch facilities and 3) the way in which information is transmitted to the missiles themselves in flight. All these aspects rely on space technology.

In addition, the ground stations that transmit and receive data to and from satellites are also vulnerable to cyberattack – either through their known and unknown internet connectivity or through malicious use of flash drives that contain a deliberate cyber infection.

Non-space-based communications systems that use cable and ground-to-air-to-ground masts are likewise under threat from cyberattacks that find their way in via internet connectivity, proximity interference or memory sticks. Human error in introducing connectivity via phones, laptops and external drives, and in clicking on malicious links in sophisticated phishing lures, is common in facilitating inadvertent connectivity and malware infection.

All of these can create a military capacity able to interfere with missile launches. Malware might have been sitting on the missile command and control system for months or even years, remaining inactivated until a chosen time or by a trigger that sets in motion a disruption either to the launch or to the flight path of the missile. The country that launches the missile that either fails to launch or fails to reach the target may never know if this was the result of a design flaw, a common malfunction or a deliberate cyberattack.

States with these capabilities must exercise caution: cyber offence manoeuvres may prevent the launch of missile attacks against US assets in the Middle East or in the Pacific regions, but they may also interfere with US missile launches in the future. Even, as has recently been revealed, US cyber weapons targeting an adversary may blow back and inadvertently infect US systems. Nobody is invulnerable.




k

EU–US Cooperation on Tackling Disinformation

3 October 2019

Disinformation, as the latest iteration of propaganda suitable for a digitally interconnected world, shows no signs of abating. This paper provides a holistic overview of the current state of play and outlines how EU and US cooperation can mitigate disinformation in the future.

Sophia Ignatidou

Academy Associate, International Security Programme

2019-09-19-FakeNews.jpg

A congressional staff member displays print outs of social media posts during a hearing before the House Select Intelligence Committee 1 November 2017 in Washington, DC. Photo: Getty Images.
  • EU and US cooperation on tackling disinformation needs to be grounded in an international human rights framework in order to bridge the differences of both parties and include other countries facing this challenge.
  • The disinformation debate needs to be reformulated to cover systemic issues rather than merely technical or security concerns. A lag in regulatory development has led to systemic vulnerabilities. In this context, policymakers need to push for more evidence-based analysis, which is only attainable if technology companies engage in honest debate and allow meaningful access to data – as determined by government appointed researchers rather than the companies themselves – taking into account and respecting users’ privacy.
  • Data governance needs to be the focus of attempts to tackle disinformation. Data’s implications for information, market and power asymmetries, feed into and exacerbate the problem.
  • Policymakers should focus on regulating the distribution of online content rather than the subject matter itself, which may have implications for freedom of speech.
  • Disinformation is mainly the result of inefficient gatekeeping of highly extractive digital companies. The old gatekeepers, journalists and their respective regulators, need to be actively engaged in devising the new regulatory framework.
  • Legacy media need to urgently consider the issue of ‘strategic silence’ and avoid being co-opted by political actors aiming to manipulate the accelerated, reactive news cycle by engaging in divisive ‘clickbait’ rhetoric verging on disinformation and propaganda. When strategic silence is not an option, contextual analysis is fundamental.
  •  The EU delegation should assist the coordination of EU–US efforts to tackle disinformation by drawing on the work and expertise at the G7 Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), the Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity (TCEI), the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), the High-level Panel on Digital Cooperation, and work with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to foster a long-term interdisciplinary forum to harness technological innovation to protect and support democracy from threats such as disinformation.
  • The EU and US must avoid rushed regulation that may condone enhanced surveillance or vilify journalism that scrutinizes those in power in the name of security.




k

POSTPONED: Working Towards Cyber Resilience in the GCC: Opportunities and Challenges

Invitation Only Research Event

12 March 2020 - 9:00am to 5:00pm

Muscat, Oman

The GCC states have invested significantly in cybersecurity and have made large strides in protecting governments, businesses and individuals from cyber threats, with the aim of delivering on their ambitious national strategies and future visions. However, several challenges to cybersecurity and cyber resilience in the region persist, putting those ambitious plans at risk.

These challenges include the uneven nature of cybersecurity protections, the incomplete implementation of cybersecurity strategies and regulations, and the issues around international cooperation. Such challenges mean that GCC states need to focus on the more difficult task of cyber resilience, in addition to the simpler initial stages of cybersecurity capacity-building, to ensure they harness the true potential of digital technologies and mitigate associated threats.

Set against this background, this workshop will explore opportunities and challenges to cyber resilience in the GCC focusing on four main pillars:

1. Cyber resilience: in concept and in practice
2. Building an effective cybersecurity capacity
3. The potential of regional and international cooperation to cyber resilience
4. Deterrence and disruption: different approaches

This event will be held in collaboration with the Arab Regional Cybersecurity Centre (ARCC) and OMAN CERT.

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Esther Naylor

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3628




k

Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19

1 April 2020

Yasmin Afina

Research Assistant, International Security Programme

Calum Inverarity

Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Programme
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential of complex systems modelling for policymaking but it is crucial to also understand its limitations.

GettyImages-1208425931.jpg

A member of the media wearing a protective face mask works in Downing Street where Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in central London, 27 March 2020. Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images.

Complex systems models have played a significant role in informing and shaping the public health measures adopted by governments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, modelling carried out by a team at Imperial College London is widely reported to have driven the approach in the UK from a strategy of mitigation to one of suppression.

Complex systems modelling will increasingly feed into policymaking by predicting a range of potential correlations, results and outcomes based on a set of parameters, assumptions, data and pre-defined interactions. It is already instrumental in developing risk mitigation and resilience measures to address and prepare for existential crises such as pandemics, prospects of a nuclear war, as well as climate change.

The human factor

In the end, model-driven approaches must stand up to the test of real-life data. Modelling for policymaking must take into account a number of caveats and limitations. Models are developed to help answer specific questions, and their predictions will depend on the hypotheses and definitions set by the modellers, which are subject to their individual and collective biases and assumptions. For instance, the models developed by Imperial College came with the caveated assumption that a policy of social distancing for people over 70 will have a 75 per cent compliance rate. This assumption is based on the modellers’ own perceptions of demographics and society, and may not reflect all societal factors that could impact this compliance rate in real life, such as gender, age, ethnicity, genetic diversity, economic stability, as well as access to food, supplies and healthcare. This is why modelling benefits from a cognitively diverse team who bring a wide range of knowledge and understanding to the early creation of a model.

The potential of artificial intelligence

Machine learning, or artificial intelligence (AI), has the potential to advance the capacity and accuracy of modelling techniques by identifying new patterns and interactions, and overcoming some of the limitations resulting from human assumptions and bias. Yet, increasing reliance on these techniques raises the issue of explainability. Policymakers need to be fully aware and understand the model, assumptions and input data behind any predictions and must be able to communicate this aspect of modelling in order to uphold democratic accountability and transparency in public decision-making.

In addition, models using machine learning techniques require extensive amounts of data, which must also be of high quality and as free from bias as possible to ensure accuracy and address the issues at stake. Although technology may be used in the process (i.e. automated extraction and processing of information with big data), data is ultimately created, collected, aggregated and analysed by and for human users. Datasets will reflect the individual and collective biases and assumptions of those creating, collecting, processing and analysing this data. Algorithmic bias is inevitable, and it is essential that policy- and decision-makers are fully aware of how reliable the systems are, as well as their potential social implications.

The age of distrust

Increasing use of emerging technologies for data- and evidence-based policymaking is taking place, paradoxically, in an era of growing mistrust towards expertise and experts, as infamously surmised by Michael Gove. Policymakers and subject-matter experts have faced increased public scrutiny of their findings and the resultant policies that they have been used to justify.

This distrust and scepticism within public discourse has only been fuelled by an ever-increasing availability of diffuse sources of information, not all of which are verifiable and robust. This has caused tension between experts, policymakers and public, which has led to conflicts and uncertainty over what data and predictions can be trusted, and to what degree. This dynamic is exacerbated when considering that certain individuals may purposefully misappropriate, or simply misinterpret, data to support their argument or policies. Politicians are presently considered the least trusted professionals by the UK public, highlighting the importance of better and more effective communication between the scientific community, policymakers and the populations affected by policy decisions.

Acknowledging limitations

While measures can and should be built in to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific models in order to counteract these common criticisms, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the steps that can be taken. This is particularly the case when dealing with predictions of future events, which inherently involve degrees of uncertainty that cannot be fully accounted for by human or machine. As a result, if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the models and in the political process and further disaffection of citizens.

The potential contribution of complexity modelling to the work of policymakers is undeniable. However, it is imperative to appreciate the inner workings and limitations of these models, such as the biases that underpin their functioning and the uncertainties that they will not be fully capable of accounting for, in spite of their immense power. They must be tested against the data, again and again, as new information becomes available or there is a risk of scientific models becoming embroiled in partisan politicization and potentially weaponized for political purposes. It is therefore important not to consider these models as oracles, but instead as one of many contributions to the process of policymaking.




k

Iran Crisis: The Impact on Oil Markets

14 January 2020

Professor Paul Stevens

Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
The assassination of Qassem Soleimani has exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to political events and brought geopolitics back into global oil prices.

2020-01-14-Hormuz.jpg

Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Getty Images.

The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani has created much speculation about the possible impact on oil markets and – although any impact will very much depend upon what happens next in terms of political and military responses – theoretically the potential exists for Iran to seriously destabilize oil markets, raising oil prices.

Arguably, it would be in Iran’s interest to do so. It would certainly hurt Trump’s possibility of a second term if higher prices were to last for some time as the 2020 presidential election gets underway. And it would also help shore up Iran’s failing economy. 

The assassination did initially cause oil prices to rise by a few dollars before quickly falling back, and the missile attacks by Iran produced a similar response. However, direct action by Iran to raise prices – for example by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz – is unlikely.

Around one-fifth of the world's oil supplies passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow choke point between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Closing it would invite serious military action by the Americans and many of its allies who, so far, have been rather lukewarm over Trump’s actions. It would also possibly limit Iran’s own oil exports.

Similarly, overt attacks on American allies in the region such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE would probably invite too heavy a reaction, although this is uncertain given the lack of response after the alleged Iranian attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais in mid-September.

Indirect action by Iran to affect oil supplies is much more likely as they have many options by using their proxies to affect others’ oil production. This is especially true for Iraq, which is now an important source of global oil supply as Iraqi exports in 2019 averaged 3.53 million barrels per day (Mb/d), a significant amount.

Iraq’s future production has already been damaged as international oil companies are withdrawing staff for safety reasons, anticipating potential attacks by both Iraqi and Iranian sources. It is now very unlikely that the crucial ‘common seawater supply project’ being run by Exxon – essential for expanding production capacity – will go ahead in the near future.

However, one important consequence of the assassination that has attracted little attention is that it has almost fully restored the role of geopolitics into the determination of oil prices. Up to 2014, geopolitics played a key role in determining oil prices in the paper markets where perceptions and expectations ruled.

Prices determined in these markets – NYMEX in New York, ICE in London and other lesser futures markets throughout the world – then influence wet barrel markets where real barrels of oil are traded. 

In 2014, the world was so oversupplied with real oil barrels that the oil price collapsed – the price of Brent crude fell from $110.72 on 23 May to $46.44 eight months later. Thereafter, little if any attention was given to geopolitical events, and geopolitics became marginalized in the determination of crude oil prices.

This began to change in 2019. The market remained physically over-supplied but events in the Gulf began to attract attention. In June, there were a series of attacks on oil tankers close to the Gulf, followed by attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq processing facility and the Khurais oil field in September.

The Americans claimed these attacks were launched by Iran, but no convincing evidence for the claim was provided. Both attacks produced an initial price response but it was surprisingly limited and short-lived. However, it did suggest that geopolitics might be creeping back into influencing oil prices.

This became ever more noticeable in the third and fourth quarters as rumours regarding the trade talks between China and US clearly began to affect price – talks going well meant higher oil demand, and prices rose; talks going badly meant lower oil demand, and prices fell.

Meanwhile, the oil market showed signs of tightening towards the end of 2019. Although there was much cheating on the OPEC+ agreement that was trying to restrain production and protect prices, the OPEC meeting last December saw both Iraq and Nigeria agreeing to restrain production. 

US stock levels also began to fall in December and the futures markets began to price in a tightening market towards the end of 2020. Significantly, the tighter the market appears, the greater attention is paid to the level of spare producing capacity.

Just before the attack on Abqaiq, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated there was 3.5 Mb/d spare capacity in OPEC which, historically, is quite comfortable. However, 2.5 of this was estimated to be in Saudi Arabia, so how much of this spare capacity still existed after the Abqaiq attack?

The Saudis claimed the Abqaiq capacity was quickly restored but technical experts greeted this with considerable skepticism, not least because the Abqaiq equipment was highly specialized. If spare capacity is tight, this makes the oil price vulnerable to geopolitical scares and rumours, real or imagined. 

Although the assassination of General Soleimani has exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical events, this becomes irrelevant if a serious shooting war starts in the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq’s oil infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to attack either directly by Iran or one of its many proxies, suggesting oil prices will become increasingly volatile but, at the same time, benefit from a rising geopolitical premium.




k

Oman’s New Sultan Needs to Take Bold Economic Steps

16 January 2020

Dr John Sfakianakis

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme
The country is in a good regional position, but the economy is at a crossroads.

2020-01-16-SultanHaitham2.jpg

Sultan Haitham bin Tariq speaks during a swearing in ceremony as Oman's new leader. Photo: Getty Images.

The transition of power in Oman from the deceased Sultan Qaboos to his cousin and the country’s new ruler, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, has been smooth and quick, but the new sultan will soon find that he has a task in shoring up the country’s economic position.

Above all, the fiscal and debt profile of the country requires careful management. Fiscal discipline was rare for Oman even during the oil price spike of the 2000s. Although oil prices only collapsed in 2014, Oman has been registering a fiscal deficit since 2010, reaching a 20.6 per cent high in 2016. As long as fiscal deficits remain elevated, so will Oman’s need to finance those deficits, predominately by borrowing in the local and international market.

Oman’s Debt-to-GDP ratio has been rising at a worrying pace, from 4.9 per cent in 2014 to an IMF-estimated 59.8 per cent in 2019. By 2024, the IMF is forecasting the ratio to reach nearly 77 per cent. A study by the World Bank found that if the debt-to-GDP ratio in emerging markets exceeds 64 per cent for an extended period, it slows economic growth by as much as 2 per cent each year.

Investors are willing to lend to Oman, but the sultanate is paying for it in terms of higher spreads due to the underlying risk markets are placing on the rising debt profile of the country. For instance, Oman has a higher sovereign debt rating than Bahrain yet markets perceive it to be of higher risk, making it costlier to borrow. Failure to address the fiscal and debt situation also risks creating pressure on the country’s pegged currency.

If oil revenues remain low, Sultan Haitham will have to craft a daring strategy of diversification and private sector growth. He is well placed for this: Sultan Haitham headed Oman’s Vision 2040, which set out the country’s future development plans and aspirations, the first Gulf country to embark on such an assessment. However, like all vision documents in the Gulf, Oman’s challenge will be implementation.

In the age of climate change, renewable energy is a serious economic opportunity, which Oman has to keep pursuing. If cheap electricity is generated it could also be exported to other Gulf states and to south Asia. In Oman, the share of renewables in total electricity capacity was around 0.5 per cent in 2018; the ambition is to reach 10 per cent by 2025.

However, in order to reach this target, Oman would have to take additional measures such as enhancing its regulatory framework, introducing a transparent and gradual energy market pricing policy and integrating all stakeholders, including the private sector, into a wider national strategy.

Mining could provide another economic opportunity for Oman’s diversification efforts, with help from a more robust mining law passed last year. The country has large deposits of metals and industrial minerals and its mountains could have gold, palladium, zinc, rare earths and manganese.

Oman’s strategic location connecting the Gulf and Indian Ocean with east Africa and the Red Sea could also boost the country’s economy. The Duqm special economic zone, which is among the largest in the world, could become the commercial thread between Oman, south Asia and China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative.’

Oman has taken important steps to make its economy more competitive and conducive to foreign direct investment. Incentives include a five-year renewable tax holiday, subsidized plant facilities and utilities, and custom duties relief on equipment and raw materials for the first 10 years of a firm’s operation in Oman.

A private sector economic model that embraces small- and medium-sized enterprises as well as greater competition and entrepreneurship would help increase opportunities in Oman. Like all other Gulf economies, future employment in Oman will have to be driven be the private sector, as there is little space left to grow the public sector.

Privatization needs to continue. Last year’s successful sale of 49 per cent of the electricity transmission company to China’s State Grid is a very positive step. The electricity distribution company as well as Oman Oil are next in line for some form of partial privatization.

The next decade will require Oman to be even more adept in its competitiveness as the region itself tries to find its new bearings. Take tourism for instance; Oman hopes to double its contribution to GDP from around 3 per cent today to 6 per cent by 2040 and the industry is expected to generate half a million jobs by then. Over the next 20 years, Oman will most likely be facing stiff competition in this area not only by the UAE but by Saudi Arabia as well.

The new sultan has an opportunity to embark on deeper economic reforms that could bring higher growth, employment opportunities and a sustainable future. But he has a big task.




k

Screening Room: Broken Dinners, Postponed Kisses

Members Event Screening Room

10 March 2020 - 6:00pm to 8:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Nigol Bezjian, Director, Broken Dinners, Postponed Kisses
Chair: Rima Maktabi, Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya (UK)

The Syrian conflict has not only resulted in material losses but also in loss of familiar everyday life for Syrian people. Through their work, many Syrian artists have been trying to come to terms with the conflict and its impact on their memories, sense of self and the place they call home. 

Against this backdrop, Broken Dinners, Postponed Kisses provides an insight into the lived experience of artists affected by violence and upheaval in Syria. The film follows the lives of six Syrian artists as they narrate their journeys of loss, displacement and adaptation. Each story builds on the last providing an exploration of the expressive power of art in conflict. 
 
The screening will be followed by a Q&A discussion with Aleppo-born Syrian Armenian filmmaker, Nigol Bezjian. Led by al-Arabiya’s London Bureau Chief, Rima Maktabi, the discussion will place some of the themes raised by the film into a wider conversation surrounding the intersection of art and politics and the impact of war on the memories, lives and viewpoints of individuals.

COVID-19
This event is proceeding as scheduled, as are other Chatham House events, in accordance with the advice from the UK Government, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Public Health England. However, we are closely monitoring the spread of COVID-19 and will send updates to attendees as the situation warrants. 
In the meantime, in line with the official advice for returning travellers or visitors to the UK from specified countries and areas (see guidance here), we ask that:

  • If you have travelled from Category 1 countries/areas, you refrain from attending the event even if asymptomatic (i.e. even if you are showing no symptoms);
  • If you have travelled from Category 2 countries/areas, you refrain from attending the event should you develop symptoms.

If you fall under one of these affected categories and have any questions, please call +44 (0)207 314 3638 or email lbedford@chathamhouse.org.

This event will be preceded by a drinks reception, taking place from 17:00.

This event is open to all Chatham House members as well as attendees of the 'The Struggle for the State in Syria' conference taking place the next day.

 

Members Events Team




k

Iran Workshop Series: Domestic, Regional and International Outlook

Invitation Only Research Event

17 December 2019 - 10:00am to 3:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

After a summer of regional tensions and continued uncertainty regarding the future of the JCPOA, the Chatham House MENA Programme held a closed workshop to examine the impact of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.

Discussions focused on the domestic developments and challenges inside Iran, prospects for new negotiations with Iran, and the regional issues facing the country. Participants also considered the differences between American and European approaches towards Iran.

 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




k

Unpacking the role of religion in political transnationalism: the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003

4 March 2020 , Volume 96, Number 2

Oula Kadhum

This article explores the role of religion in political transnationalism using the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003. The article focuses on three areas that capture important trends in Shi'a transnationalism and their implications for transnational Shi'a identity politics. These include Shi'a diasporic politics, transnational Shi'a civic activism, and the cultural production of Iraqi Shi'a identity through pilgrimages, rituals and new practices. It is argued that understanding Shi'a Islam and identity formation requires adopting a transnational lens. The evolution of Shi'a Islam is not only a result of the dictates of the Shi'a clerical centres, and how they influence Shi'a populations abroad, but also the transnational interrelationships and links to holy shrine cities, Shi'i national and international politics, humanitarianism and commemorations and rituals. The article demonstrates that Shi'a political transnationalism is unexceptional in that it echoes much of the literature on diasporic politics and development where diaspora involve themselves from afar in the politics and societies of their countries of origin. At the same time, it shows the exceptionalism of Shi'a diasporic movements, in that their motivations and mobilizations are contributing to the reification of sectarian geographical and social borders, creating a transnationalism that is defined by largely Shi'a networks, spaces, actors and causes. The case of Shi'a political transnationalism towards Iraq shows that this is increasing the distance between Shi'is and Iraq's other communities, simultaneously fragmenting Iraq's national unity while deepening Shi'a identity and politics both nationally and supra-nationally.




k

Webinar: How is the MENA Region Dealing with the COVID-19 Outbreak?

Research Event

2 April 2020 - 12:30pm to 1:30pm

Event participants

Omar Dewachi, Associate Professor of Medical Anthropology, Department of Anthropology, Rutgers University
Tin Hinane El Kadi, Associate Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House
Moderator: Sanam Vakil, Deputy Head & Senior Research Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House

At this webinar, part of the Chatham House MENA Programme Online Event Series, experts will explore how the coronavirus pandemic is impacting the economy, state-society relations and healthcare throughout the Middle East and North Africa. How are governments handling this crisis and what measures have they put in place to stop the spread of the virus? Why are some governments withholding information about the number of cases? What has the response from the public been so far? How is this affecting the region and how does it compare to the global picture?

The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




k

Webinar: Federalism in a Fragmented State: Rethinking Decentralization in Yemen

Research Event

15 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Osamah Al Rawhani, Deputy Director, Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
Moderator: Nadim Houry, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative

Yemen suffered from the excessive control of the central government prior to the current conflict. Federalism has been put forward by many Yemeni political parties since the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) as the supposed magic cure for this significant problem. Today, Yemen is more fragmented than ever, its state central institutions have been scattered and lack leadership and the state has lost most of its sovereignty. The prevailing narrative that decentralization through federalism is Yemen’s inevitable path post-conflict often fails to acknowledge that there are prerequisites for effective local governance, beyond political will.  

In a recent article, Osamah Al Rawhani addressed how the weakness of central state institutions is the key challenge to proceeding with federalism in Yemen and highlighted prerequisites and contextual factors that need to be addressed before reforming the structure of the state. He argued that the viability of decentralization relies on the presence of a functioning, representative central government that is capable of devolving power but also able to keep the state from further fragmentation. 

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on The Future of the State in the Middle East and North Africa, the article’s author will discuss recent developments in Yemen, where shifting frontlines and regional divisions are fragmenting the country in new ways. The speaker will explore alternative approaches to pursue the path of federalism that recognize the current realities and the critical need for strong central institutions. He will also survey the internal and external factors that must be considered to rebuild a stable state in Yemen.

You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




k

Webinar: Idlib at Risk – Doctors and First Responders in Northwest Syria

Members Event Webinar

23 April 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:00pm

Online

Event participants

Dr Munzer al-Khalil, Head, Idlib Health Directorate
Raed Al Saleh, Director, Syria Civil Defence (The White Helmets)
Alaa Rajaa Mughrabieh, Child Protection Officer, Hurras Network
Chair: Dr Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

 

In Syria, uncertainty about the safety of the ceasefire agreed between Russia and Turkey last month is inhibiting 1 million people who have been displaced since December 2019 from returning home.

The looming COVID-19 global health crisis threatens to further devastate those most vulnerable as the conditions in northwest Syria’s refugee camps make it hard to practice common social distancing guidelines. Added to this, the medical infrastructure in the region has been decimated after years of bombings which has disabled over 70 health facilities since April 2019.

This webinar highlights the potentially catastrophic risks of a coronavirus outbreak in Idlib and displacement camps in northwest Syria by speaking with medical and civil society actors working in the region. How are doctors and local humanitarian organizations scaling up their medical and prevention response to the COVID-19 outbreak?

What key supplies such as ventilators, testing kits and critical sanitary equipment are still lacking? And how can the international community step in to help mitigate the potentially devastating consequences of an outbreak in these refugee camps?

This event is run in collaboration with The Syria Campaign, a human rights organization working with Syrian civil society to raise the voices of those struggling for democracy, and support frontline activists and humanitarians.




k

Webinar: Will COVID-19 Mark the Endgame for Iraq's Muhasasa Ta'ifia?

Research Event

30 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Frontier Capital Iraq Fund; Adjunct Assistant Professor, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Moderator: Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Control of oil rents underpins Iraq’s post-2003 political order. This political order, known as Muhasasa Ta’ifia (ethno-sectarian apportionment), features an elite bargain inclusive of all major ethnic and sect-based political groups. It has enabled the state's continuity and apparent stability through multiple crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 oil crisis, and the war with ISIS.

In a recent article, Ahmed Tabaqchali examines how the crash in oil rents, brought about by COVID-19’s disruption of the world economy, exposes the structural inconsistencies and inherent contradictions of the Muhasasa Tai’fia system. The article argues that the current Iraqi political elite is ill-equipped to resolve the multi-faceted challenge facing the country because of its increasing fragmentation and the erosion of its legitimacy, advanced institutional decay and fundamentally different oil dynamics.

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article’s author will discuss the deficiencies of the Muhasasa Ta’ifia system and will offer his insight into the future of this governance model in the context of a worsening economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and existing demographic pressures.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.
 

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




k

Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

28 April 2020

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

Haid Haid

Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

2020-04-28-Syria-prison.jpg

A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.
  • The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.
  • Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.
  • To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.
  • Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large.




k

Webinar: Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar

Haid Haid, Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Sara Kayyali, Syria Researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

You can register your interest here. Alternatively, you can watch the webinar live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.

In a recent research paper, author Haid Haid argues that this approach to justice is deeply flawed as it raises concerns about due process and lacks the precise instruments to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. The paper proposes that a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members.

In this webinar, part of the MENA Programme’s Online Event Series, speakers will examine the benefits of such an approach to justice for overcoming the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework. Panelists will discuss the alternative mechanisms local authorities and their key foreign backers can use to hold local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.
 
The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




k

Politics, policy-making and the presence of images of suffering children

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helen Berents

In 2017 Trump expressed pity for the ‘beautiful babies’ killed in a gas attack on Khan Shaykhun in Syria before launching airstrikes against President Assad's regime. Images of suffering children in world politics are often used as a synecdoche for a broader conflict or disaster. Injured, suffering, or dead; the ways in which images of children circulate in global public discourse must be critically examined to uncover the assumptions that operate in these environments. This article explores reactions to images of children by representatives and leaders of states to trace the interconnected affective and political dimensions of these images. In contrast to attending to the expected empathetic responses prompted by images of children, this article particularly focuses on when such images prompt bellicose foreign policy decision-making. In doing this, the article forwards a way of thinking about images as contentious affective objects in international relations. The ways in which images of children's bodies and suffering are strategically deployed by politicians deserves closer scrutiny to uncover the visual politics of childhood inherent in these moments of international politics and policy-making.




k

Insulin-Like Growth Factor Dysregulation Both Preceding and Following Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis

Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs), specifically IGF1 and IGF2, promote glucose metabolism, with their availability regulated by IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs). We hypothesized that IGF1 and IGF2 levels, or their bioavailability, are reduced during type 1 diabetes development. Total serum IGF1, IGF2, and IGFBP1–7 levels were measured in an age-matched, cross-sectional cohort at varying stages of progression to type 1 diabetes. IGF1 and IGF2 levels were significantly lower in autoantibody (AAb)+ compared with AAb relatives of subjects with type 1 diabetes. Most high-affinity IGFBPs were unchanged in individuals with pre–type 1 diabetes, suggesting that total IGF levels may reflect bioactivity. We also measured serum IGFs from a cohort of fasted subjects with type 1 diabetes. IGF1 levels significantly decreased with disease duration, in parallel with declining β-cell function. Additionally, plasma IGF levels were assessed in an AAb+ cohort monthly for a year. IGF1 and IGF2 showed longitudinal stability in single AAb+ subjects, but IGF1 levels decreased over time in subjects with multiple AAb and those who progressed to type 1 diabetes, particularly postdiagnosis. In sum, IGFs are dysregulated both before and after the clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes and may serve as novel biomarkers to improve disease prediction.




k

Rapid Brain Nicotine Uptake from Electronic Cigarettes

This study sought to determine brain nicotine kinetics from the use of increasingly popular electronic cigarettes (E-cigs). Methods: Brain uptake of nicotine following inhalation from E-cigs was directly assessed in 17 E-cig users (8 females), using 11C-nicotine and positron emission tomography. The brain nicotine kinetics parameters from E-cigs were compared with those from smoking combustible cigarettes (C-cigs). Results: After inhalation of a single puff of E-cig vapor, brain nicotine concentration rose quickly (mean T1/2 27 sec) with a peak amplitude 25% higher in females than males, resembling previous observations with C-cigs. Nonetheless, brain nicotine accumulation from E-cigs was smaller than that from C-cigs in both males and females (24% and 32%, respectively). Conclusion: E-cigs can deliver nicotine rapidly to the brain. Therefore, to the extent that rapid brain uptake promotes smoking reward, e-cigarettes might maintain a degree of nicotine dependence and also serve as non-combustible substitutes for cigarettes.




k

Can fluorescence-guided surgery help identify all lesions in unknown locations or is the integrated use of a roadmap created by preoperative imaging mandatory? A blinded study in prostate cancer patients.

Rationale: Lymphatic tracers can help visualize the lymphatic drainage patterns and sentinel nodes of individual prostate cancer patients. To determine the role of nuclear medicine, in particular the positional guidance of a SPECT/CT-based 3D imaging roadmap, in this process we studied to which extend fluorescence-guidance underestimated the number of target lesions. Methods: SPECT/CT imaging was performed after intraprostatic tracer administration of either ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid (hybrid tracer group) or 99mTc-nanocolloid to create a roadmap that depicted all sentinel nodes (SNs). Patients who received 99mTc-nanocolloid were injected with "free" ICG immediately prior to surgery ("free" ICG group). Before unblinding, fluorescence-guidance was used for intraoperative SN identification. This was followed by extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND). Following unblinding of the SPECT/CT images, the number of missed SN’s were recorded and their resection was pursued when the anatomy allowed. Results: Preoperative SPECT/CT revealed no differences in the SN identification rate between ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid and 99mTc-nanocolloid. However, fluorescence-guidance only allowed intraoperative removal of all SNs in 40% of patients in the hybrid tracer group and in 20% of patients in the "free" ICG group. Overall, 75.9% of the intraoperatively resected SNs in the hybrid tracer group and 51.8% of the SNs in the "free" ICG group were removed solely under fluorescence-guidance. During ePLND 22 additional SNs were resected (7 in the hybrid tracer group and 15 in the "free" ICG group). After unblinding 18 remaining SNs were identified (6 in the hybrid group and 12 in the "free" ICG group). In the "free" ICG group, ex vivo evaluation of the excised specimens revealed that 14 SNs removed under ePLND or after unblinding contained radioactivity but no fluorescence. Conclusion: The preoperative imaging roadmap provided by SPECT/CT enhanced the detection of prostate SNs in more ectopic locations in 17 of the 25 patients and the hybrid tracer ICG-99mTc-nanocolloid was shown to outperform "free" ICG. Overall, fluorescence-guided pelvic nodal surgery underestimated the number of SNs in 60-80% of patients.




k

Differential expression of glucose transporters and hexokinases in prostate cancer with a neuroendocrine gene signature: a mechanistic perspective for FDG imaging of PSMA-suppressed tumors

Purpose: Although the incidence of de novo neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC) is rare, recent data suggests that low expression of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is associated with a spectrum of neuroendocrine (NE) hallmarks and androgen receptor (AR)-suppression in prostate cancer (PC). Previous clinical reports indicate that PCs with a phenotype similar to NE tumors can be more amenable to imaging by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) rather than PSMA-targeting radioligands. In this study, we evaluated the association between NE gene signature and FDG uptake-associated genes including glucose transporters (GLUTs) and hexokinases, with the goal of providing a genomic signature to explain the reported FDG-avidity of PSMA-suppressed tumors. Methods: Data mining approaches, cell lines and patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models were used to study the levels of 14 members of the SLC2A family (encoding GLUT proteins), 4 members of the hexokinase family (genes: HK1 to 3 and GCK) and PSMA (FOLH1 gene) following AR-inhibition and in correlation with NE hallmarks. Also, we characterize a NE-like PC (NELPC) subset among a cohort of primary and metastatic PC samples with no NE histopathology. We measured glucose uptake in a NE-induced in vitro model and a zebrafish model by non-radioactive imaging of glucose uptake using fluorescent glucose bioprobe, GB2-Cy3. Results: This work demonstrates that a NE gene signature associates with differential expression of genes encoding GLUT and hexokinase proteins. In NELPC, elevated expression of GCK (encoding glucokinase protein) and decreased expression of SLC2A12 correlated with earlier biochemical recurrence. In tumors treated with AR-inhibitors, high expression of GCK and low expression of SLC2A12 correlated with NE histopathology and PSMA gene suppression. GLUT12-suppression and amplification of glucokinase was observed in NE-induced PC cell lines and PDX models. A higher glucose uptake was confirmed in low-PSMA tumors using a GB2-Cy3 probe in a zebrafish model. Conclusion: NE gene signature in NEPC and NELPC associates with a distinct transcriptional profile of GLUTs and HKs. PSMA-suppression correlates with GLUT12-suppression and glucokinase-amplification. Alteration of FDG uptake-associated genes correlated positively with higher glucose uptake in AR and PSMA-suppressed tumors. Zebrafish xenograft tumor models are an accurate and efficient pre-clinical method for monitoring non-radioactive glucose uptake.




k

11C-Methionine PET Identifies Astroglia Involvement in Heart-Brain Inflammation Networking after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Acute myocardial infarction (MI) triggers a local and systemic inflammatory response. We recently showed microglia involvement using TSPO imaging. Here, we evaluate whether 11C-methionine provides further insights into heart-brain inflammation networking. Methods: Male Bl6N mice underwent permanent coronary artery ligation followed by 11C-methionine PET at 3 and 7 days (n = 3). In subgroups, leukocyte homing was blocked by integrin antibodies (n = 5). The cellular substrate for PET signal was identified using brain section immunostaining. Results: 11C-methionine uptake peaked in the MI region at d3 (5.9±0.9vs 2.4±0.5 %ID/cc), decreasing to control level by d7 (4.3±0.6 %ID/cc). Brain uptake was proportional to cardiac uptake (r=0.47,p<0.05), peaking also at d3 (2.9±0.4vs 2.4±0.3 %ID/cc) and returning to baseline at d7 (2.3±0.4 %ID/cc). Integrin blockade reduced uptake at every time point. Immunostaining at d3 revealed co-localization of the L-type amino acid transporter with GFAP-positive astrocytes but not CD68-positive microglia. Conclusion: PET imaging with 11C-methionine specifically identifies an astrocyte component, enabling further dissection of the heart-brain axis in post MI inflammation.




k

Inflammation-based index and 68Ga-DOTATOC PET-derived uptake and volumetric parameters predict outcome in neuroendocrine tumor patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC

We performed post-hoc analyses on the utility of pre-therapeutic and early interim 68Ga-DOTA-Tyr3-octreotide (68Ga-DOTATOC) positron emission tomography (PET) tumor uptake and volumetric parameters and a recently proposed biomarker, the inflammation-based index (IBI), for peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) in neuroendocrine tumor (NET) patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC in the setting of a prospective phase II trial. Methods: Forty-three NET patients received up to four cycles of 1.85 GBq/m²/cycle 90Y-DOTATOC with a maximal kidney biologic effective dose of 37 Gy. All patients underwent a 68Ga-DOTATOC PET/computed tomography (CT) at baseline and seven weeks after the first PRRT cycle. 68Ga-DOTATOC-avid tumor lesions were semi-automatically delineated using a customized standardized uptake value (SUV) threshold-based approach. PRRT response was assessed on CT using RECIST 1.1. Results: Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 13.9 and 22.3 months, respectively. An SUVmean higher than 13.7 (75th percentile (P75)) was associated with better survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.45; P = 0.024), whereas a 68Ga-DOTATOC-avid tumor volume higher than 578 ml (P75) was associated with worse OS (HR 2.18; P = 0.037). Elevated baseline IBI was associated with worse OS (HR 3.90; P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis corroborated independent associations between OS and SUVmean (P = 0.016) and IBI (P = 0.015). No significant correlations with PFS were found. A composite score based on SUVmean and IBI allowed to further stratify patients in three categories with significantly different survival. On early interim PET, a decrease in SUVmean of more than 17% (P75) was associated with worse survival (HR 2.29; P = 0.024). Conclusion: Normal baseline IBI and high 68Ga-DOTATOC tumor uptake predict better outcome in NET patients treated with 90Y-DOTATOC. This can be used for treatment personalization. Interim 68Ga-DOTATOC PET does not provide information for treatment personalization.




k

Quantitative 3D assessment of 68Ga-DOTATOC PET/MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging to assess imaging markers for gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Preliminary results

68Ga-DOTATOC-PET/MRI (68Gallium-DOTATOC-positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging) combines the advantages of PET in the acquisition of metabolic-functional information with the high soft tissue contrast of MRI. Standardized uptake values (SUV) in tumors were suggested as a measure of somatostatin receptor expression. A challenge with receptor ligands is, that the distribution volume is confined to tissues with tracer-uptake, potentially limiting SUV quantification. In this study, different functional, three-dimensional (3D) SUV, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) parameters and arterial tumor enhancement were tested for the characterization of gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET). Methods: For this single-center, cross-sectional study, 22 patients with 24 histologically confirmed GEP-NET lesions (15 men/7 women; median, 61 years, range, 43-81 years), who received hybrid 68Ga-DOTA-PET/MRI examinations at 3T between January 2017 and July 2019 met eligibility criteria. SUVs, tumor-to-background ratios (TBR), the total functional tumor volume (TFTV), ADCmean and ADCmin were measured based on volumes of interest (VOI) and examined with receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine cut-off values for differentiation between low and intermediate grade GEP-NET. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were used to assess correlations between functional imaging parameters. Results: The ratio of PET-derived SUVmean and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-derived ADCmin was introduced as a combined variable to predict tumor grade, outperforming single predictors. Based on a threshold ratio of 0.03 to be exceeded, tumors could be classified as grade 2 with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 100%. SUV and functional ADC values as well as arterial contrast enhancement parameters showed non-significant and mostly negligible correlations. Conclusion: As receptor density and tumor cellularity appear to be independent, potentially complementary phenomena, the combined PET/MRI ratio SUVmean/ADCmin may be used as a novel biomarker, allowing to differentiate between grade 1 and 2 GEP-NET.




k

Hyper-progressive Disease in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Checkpoint Inhibitors: The Role of 18F-FDG PET/CT

Introduction: A new pattern of response, so-called hyper-progressive disease (HPD), is emerging during treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Our aim was to investigate the prevalence of such phenomenon and to assess its association with clinical variables and metabolic parameters by 18F-fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT). Methods: Data from 50 patients (34 male, 16 female, median age 73) with non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) and treated with ICI were prospectively collected. All patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT, 18F-FDG PET/CT, and complete peripheral blood sample at baseline before ICI. HPD was defined according to clinical and radiologic criteria. Because of the rapid disease progression or worsening of clinic conditions, radiologic response assessment was available for 46 patients. OS were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and the log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate factors independently associated with OS. Median follow-up was 12.4 months (9.7-15.2 months). Results: We identified the following response categories: 10 cases as complete/partial response (CR/PR), 17 cases with stable disease (SD), 5 patients with progressive disease (PD), and 14 with HPD. Among metabolic parameters we observed a statistically significant association between HPD status and tumor burden, expressed by both MTV (756.1ml for HPD vs 475.6ml for non-HPD, P = 0.011) and TLG (287.3 for HPD vs 62.1 for non-HPD, P = 0.042). Among clinical variables, 12/14 patients (85.7%) within the HPD group compared with 8/32 patients (25%) in the non-HDP group had more than two metastatic sites (p<0.001). In addition, the derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) and platelet counts was significantly associated with HPD status (P = 0.038, P = 0.025, respectively). Survival analysis showed a median OS of 4 months for HPD group compared with 15 months within non-HPD patients (P = 0.003). Likewise, median OS was significantly different when we considered all the response categories: CR/PR, SD, PD, and HPD (P = 0.001). Finally, Multivariate analysis identified MTV and dNLR as independent predictors for OS. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the use of ICI might represent a concern in patients with high metabolic tumor burden and inflammatory indexes at baseline. However Additional studies are needed.




k

Targeted optical imaging of the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor using exendin-4-IRDye800CW

Rationale: The treatment of choice for insulinomas and focal lesions in congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) is surgery. However, intra-operative detection can be challenging. This could be overcome with intra-operative fluorescence imaging, which provides real-time lesion detection with a high spatial resolution. Here, a novel method for targeted near-infrared (NIR) fluorescence imaging of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP-1R) positive lesions, using the GLP-1 agonist exendin-4, labeled with IRDye800CW, was examined in vitro and in vivo. Methods: A competitive binding assay was performed using Chinese hamster lung (CHL) cells transfected with the GLP-1R. Tracer biodistribution was determined in BALB/c nude mice bearing subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. In vivo NIR fluorescence imaging of CHL-GLP-1R xenografts was performed. Localization of the tracer in the pancreatic islets of BALB/c nude mice was examined using fluorescence microscopy. Laparoscopic imaging was performed to detect the fluorescent signal of the tracer in the pancreas of mini pigs. Results: Exendin-4-IRDye800CW binds the GLP-1R with an IC50 value of 3.96 nM. The tracer accumulates in CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. Subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts were visualized using in vivo NIR fluorescence imaging. The tracer accumulates specifically in the pancreatic islets of mice and a clear fluorescent signal was detected in the pancreas of mini pigs. Conclusion: These date provide the first in vivo evidence of the feasibility of targeted fluorescence imaging of GLP-1R positive lesions. Intra-operative lesion delineation using exendin-4-IRDye800CW could benefit open as well as laparoscopic surgical procedures for removal of insulinomas and focal lesions in CHI.




k

Immune checkpoint imaging in oncology - a game changer towards personalized immunotherapy?

Immune checkpoint blockade represents a promising approach in oncology, showing anti-tumor activities in various cancers. However, although being generally far more well-tolerated than classical cytotoxic chemotherapy, this treatment, too, may be accompanied by considerable side effects and not all patients benefit equally. Therefore, careful patient selection and monitoring of the treatment response is mandatory. At present, checkpoint-specific molecular imaging is increasingly investigated as a tool for patient selection and response evaluation. Here, an overview of the current developments in immune checkpoint imaging is provided.




k

Individual mapping of innate immune cell activation is a candidate marker of patient-specific trajectories of disability worsening in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: To develop a novel approach to generate individual maps of white matter (WM) innate immune cell activation using 18F-DPA-714 translocator protein (TSPO) positron emission tomography (PET), and to explore the relationship between these maps and individual trajectories of disability worsening in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Patients with MS (n = 37), whose trajectories of disability worsening over the 2 years preceding study entry were calculated, and healthy controls (n = 19) underwent magnetic resonance magnetic and 18F-DPA-714 PET. A threshold of significant activation of 18F-DPA-714 binding was calculated with a voxel-wise randomized permutation-based comparison between patients and controls, and used to classify each WM voxel in patients as characterized by a significant activation of innate immune cells (DPA+) or not. Individual maps of innate immune cell activation in the WM were employed to calculate the extent of activation in WM regions-of-interests and to classify each WM lesion as "DPA-active", "DPA-inactive" or "unclassified". Results: Compared with the WM of healthy controls, patients with MS had a significantly higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the normal-appearing WM, (NAWM in patients=24.9±9.7%; WM in controls=14.0±7.8%, p<0.001). In patients with MS, the percentage of DPA+ voxels showed a significant increase from NAWM, to perilesional areas, T2 hyperintense lesions and T1 hypointense lesions (38.1±13.5%, 45.0±17.9%, and 51.9±22.9%, respectively, p<0.001). Among the 1379 T2 lesions identified, 512 were defined as DPA-active and 258 as DPA-inactive. A higher number of lesions classified as DPA-active (OR=1.13, P = 0.009), a higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the NAWM (OR=1.16, P = 0.009) and in T1-spin-echo lesions (OR=1.06, P = 0.036), were significantly associated with a retrospective more severe clinical trajectory in patients with MS. Conclusion: A more severe trajectory of disability worsening in MS is associated with an innate immune cells activation inside and around WM lesions. 18F-DPA-714 PET may provide a promising biomarker to identify patients at risk of severe clinical trajectory.




k

64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT for Imaging Patients with Known or Suspected Somatostatin Receptor-Positive Neuroendocrine Tumors: Results of the First US Prospective, Reader-Blinded Clinical Trial

Studies demonstrate that the investigational 64Cu-DOTATATE radiopharmaceutical may provide diagnostic and logistical benefits over available imaging agents for patients with somatostatin receptor (SSTR)-positive neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Accordingly, we aimed to prospectively determine the lowest dose of 64Cu-DOTATATE that facilitates diagnostic quality scans and evaluated the diagnostic performance and safety in a phase III study of patients with SSTR-expressing NETs. Methods: A dose-ranging study was conducted in 12 patients divided into 3 dose groups (111 MBq [3.0 mCi], 148 MBq [4.0 mCi], and 185 MBq [5.0 mCi] ± 10%) to determine the lowest dose of 64Cu-DOTATATE that produced diagnostic quality PET/CT images. Using the 64Cu-DOTATATE dose identified in the dose-ranging study, 3 independent nuclear medicine physicians who were blinded to all clinical information read PET/CT scans from 21 healthy volunteers and 42 NET-positive patients to determine those with "Disease" and "No Disease," as well as "Localized" versus "Metastatic" status. Blinded-reader evaluations were compared to a patient-specific standard of truth (SOT), which was established by an independent oncologist who used all previously available pathology, clinical, and conventional imaging data. Diagnostic performance calculated for 64Cu-DOTATATE included sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and accuracy. Inter- and intra-reader reliability, as well as ability to differentiate between localized and metastatic disease, was also determined. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded from 64Cu-DOTATATE injection through 48 hours post-injection. Results: The dose-ranging study identified 148 MBq (4.0 mCi) as the optimal dose to obtain diagnostic quality PET/CT images. Following database lock, diagnostic performance from an initial majority read of the 3 independent readers showed a significant 90.9% sensitivity (P = 0.0042) and 96.6% specificity (P < 0.0001) for detecting NETs, which translated to a 100.0% sensitivity and 96.8% specificity after correcting for an initial SOT misread. Excellent inter- and intra-reader reliability, as well as ability to distinguish between localized and metastatic disease, was also noted. No AEs were related to 64Cu-DOTATATE, and no serious AEs were observed. Conclusion: 64Cu-DOTATATE PET/CT is a safe imaging technique that provides high-quality and accurate images at a dose of 148 MBq (4.0 mCi) for the detection of somatostatin-expressing NETs.




k

Tobacco smoking in people is not associated with altered 18 kDa-translocator protein levels: A Positron Emission Tomography study

Rationale: The effects of tobacco smoking on the brain’s immune system are not well elucidated. While nicotine is immunosuppressive, other constituents in tobacco smoke have inflammatory effects. Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging of the 18-kDa translocator protein (TSPO) provide a biomarker for microglia, the brain’s primary immunocompetent cells. This work compared brain TSPO levels in 20 tobacco smokers (abstinent for at least 2 hours) and 20 nonsmokers using a fully quantitative modeling approach for the first time. Methods: [11C]PBR28 PET scans were acquired with arterial blood sampling to estimate the metabolite-corrected input function. [11C]PBR28 volumes of distribution (VT) were estimated throughout the brain with multilinear analysis. Results: Statistical analyses revealed no evidence for significant differences in regional [11C]PBR28 VT between smokers and non-smokers (whole-brain Cohen’s d=0.09) despite adequate power to detect medium effect sizes. Conclusion: These findings inform previous PET studies reporting lower TSPO radiotracer concentrations in brain (measured as standardized uptake value, SUV) of tobacco smokers compared to nonsmokers by demonstrating the importance of accounting for radiotracer concentrations in plasma. These findings suggest that compared to nonsmokers, smokers have comparable TSPO levels in brain. Additional work with other biomarkers is needed to fully characterize effects of tobacco smoking on the brain’s immune system.




k

Intraoperative 68Gallium-PSMA Cerenkov Luminescence Imaging for surgical margins in radical prostatectomy - a feasibility study

Objective: To assess the feasibility and accuracy of Cerenkov Luminescence Imaging (CLI) for assessment of surgical margins intraoperatively during radical prostatectomy (RPE). Methods: A single centre feasibility study included 10 patients with high-risk primary prostate cancer (PC). 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT scans were performed followed by RPE and intraoperative CLI of the excised prostate. In addition to imaging the intact prostate, in the first two patients the prostate gland was incised and imaged with CLI to visualise the primary tumour. We compared the tumour margin status on CLI to postoperative histopathology. Measured CLI intensities were determined as tumour to background ratio (TBR). Results: Tumour cells were successfully detected on the incised prostate CLI images as confirmed by histopathology. 3 of 10 men had histopathological positive surgical margins (PSMs), and 2 of 3 PSMs were accurately detected on CLI. Overall, 25 (72%) out of 35 regions of interest (ROIs) proved to visualize a tumour signal according to standard histopathology. The median tumour radiance in these areas was 11301 photons/s/cm2/sr (range 3328 - 25428 photons/s/cm2/sr) and median TBR was 4.2 (range 2.1 – 11.6). False positive signals were seen mainly at the prostate base with PC cells overlaid by benign tissue. PSMA-immunohistochemistry (PSMA-IHC) revealed strong PSMA staining of benign gland tissue, which impacts measured activities. Conclusion: This feasibility showed that 68Ga-PSMA CLI is a new intraoperative imaging technique capable of imaging the entire specimen’s surface to detect PC tissue at the resection margin. Further optimisation of the CLI protocol, or the use of lower-energetic imaging tracers such as 18F-PSMA, are required to reduce false positives. A larger study will be performed to assess diagnostic performance.




k

Interim PET assessment of advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma: is it sufficient?




k

Diagnosis of Hyper-progressive Disease in Patients Treated with Checkpoint Inhibitors using 18F-FDG PET/CT




k

Development and evaluation of interleukin-2 derived radiotracers for PET imaging of T-cells in mice

Recently, N-(4-18F-fluorobenzoyl)-interleukin-2 (18F-FB-IL2) was introduced as PET tracer for T-cell imaging. However, production is complex and time-consuming. Therefore, we developed two radiolabeled interleukin-2 (IL-2) variants, namely aluminum 18F-fluoride-(restrained complexing agent)-IL-2 (18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2) and 68Ga-gallium-(1,4,7-triazacyclononane-4,7-diacetic acid-1-glutaric acid)-IL-2 (68Ga-Ga-NODAGA-IL2) and compared their in-vitro and in-vivo characteristics with 18F-FB-IL2. Methods: Radiolabeling of 18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2 and 68Ga-Ga-NODAGA-IL2 was optimized and stability was evaluated in human serum. Receptor binding was studied with activated human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (hPBMCs). Ex-vivo tracer biodistribution in immunocompetent BALB/cOlaHsd (BALB/c) mice was performed at 15, 60 and 90 min after tracer injection. In-vivo binding characteristics were studied in severe combined immune-deficient (SCID) mice inoculated with activated hPBMCs in Matrigel. Tracer was injected 15 min after hPBMCs inoculation and a 60-min dynamic PET scan was acquired, followed by ex-vivo biodistribution studies. Specific uptake was determined by co-injection of tracer with unlabeled IL2 and by evaluating uptake in a control group inoculated with Matrigel only. Results: 68Ga-Ga-NODAGA-IL2 and 18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2 were produced with radiochemical purity >95% and radiochemical yield of 13.1±4.7% and 2.4±1.6% within 60 and 90 min, respectively. Both tracers were stable in serum, with >90% being intact tracer after 1h. In-vitro, both tracers displayed preferential binding to activated hPBMCs. Ex-vivo biodistribution studies in BALB/c mice showed higher uptake of 18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2 than 18F-FB-IL2 in liver, kidney, spleen, bone and bone marrow. 68Ga-Ga-NODAGA-IL2 uptake in liver and kidney was higher than 18F-FB-IL2 uptake. In-vivo, all tracers revealed uptake in activated hPBMCs in SCID mice. Low uptake was seen after a blocking dose of IL2 or in the Matrigel control group. In addition, 18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2 yielded highest contrast PET images of target lymph nodes. Conclusion: Production of 18F-AlF-RESCA-IL2 and 68Ga-Ga-NODAGA-IL2 is simpler and faster than 18F-FB-IL2. Both tracers showed good in-vitro and in-vivo characteristics with high uptake in lymphoid tissue and hPBMC xenografts.




k

Kinetic modeling and test-retest reproducibility of 11C-EKAP and 11C-FEKAP, novel agonist radiotracers for PET imaging of the kappa opioid receptor in humans

The kappa opioid receptor (KOR) is implicated in various neuropsychiatric disorders. We previously evaluated an agonist tracer, 11C-GR103545, for PET imaging of KOR in humans. Although 11C-GR103545 showed high brain uptake, good binding specificity, and selectivity to KOR, it displayed slow kinetics and relatively large test-retest variability (TRV) of distribution volume (VT) estimates (15%). Therefore we set out to develop two novel KOR agonist radiotracers, 11C-EKAP and 11C-FEKAP, and in nonhuman primates, both tracers exhibited faster kinetics and comparable binding parameters to 11C-GR103545. The aim of this study was to assess their kinetic and binding properties in humans. Methods: Six healthy subjects underwent 120-min test-retest PET scans with both 11C-EKAP and 11C-FEKAP. Metabolite-corrected arterial input functions were measured. Regional time-activity curves (TACs) were generated for 14 regions of interest. One- and two-tissue compartment models (1TC, 2TC) and the multilinear analysis-1 (MA1) method were applied to the regional TACs to calculate VT. Time-stability of VT values and test-retest reproducibility were evaluated. Levels of specific binding, as measured by the non-displaceable binding potential (BPND) for the three tracers (11C-EKAP, 11C-FEKAP and 11C-GR103545), were compared using a graphical method. Results: For both tracers, regional TACs were fitted well with the 2TC model and MA1 method (t*=20min), but not with the 1TC model. Given unreliably estimated parameters in several fits with the 2TC model and a good match between VT values from MA1 and 2TC, MA1 was chosen as the appropriate model for both tracers. Mean MA1 VT values were highest for 11C-GR103545, followed by 11C-EKAP, then 11C-FEKAP. Minimum scan time for stable VT measurement was 90 and 110min for 11C-EKAP and 11C-FEKAP, respectively, compared with 140min for 11C-GR103545. The mean absolute TRV in MA1 VT estimates was 7% and 18% for 11C-EKAP and 11C-FEKAP, respectively. BPND levels were similar for 11C-FEKAP and 11C-GR103545, but ~25% lower for 11C-EKAP. Conclusion: The two novel KOR agonist tracers showed faster tissue kinetics than 11C-GR103545. Even with slightly lower BPND, 11C-EKAP is judged to be a better tracer for imaging and quantification of KOR in humans, based on the shorter minimum scan time and excellent test-retest.




k

First-in-Human Trial of Dasatinib-Derivative Tracer for Tumor Kinase-Targeted Positron Emission Tomography

We developed a first-of-kind dasatinib-derivative imaging agent, 18F-SKI-249380 (18F-SKI), and validated its use for noninvasive in vivo tyrosine kinase-targeted tumor detection in preclinical models. In this study, we assess the feasibility of using 18F-SKI for PET imaging in patients with malignancies. Methods: Five patients with a prior diagnosis of breast cancer, renal cell cancer, or leukemia underwent whole-body PET/CT imaging 90 min post-injection of 18F-SKI (mean: 241.24 ± 116.36 MBq) as part of a prospective study. In addition, patients underwent either a 30-min dynamic scan of the upper abdomen including, at least partly, cardiac left ventricle, liver, spleen, and kidney (n = 2) or three 10-min whole-body PET/CT scans (n = 3) immediately post-injection and blood-based radioactivity measurements to determine the time course of tracer distribution and facilitate radiation dose estimates. A subset of three patients had a delayed whole-body PET/CT scan at 180 min. Biodistribution, dosimetry, and tumor uptake were quantified. Absorbed doses were calculated using OLINDA/EXM 1.0. Results: No adverse events occurred after injection of 18F-SKI. A total of 27 tumor lesions were analyzed with median SUVpeak 1.4 (range, 0.7–2.3) and tumor-to-blood ratios of 1.6 (range, 0.8–2.5) at 90 min post-injection. Intratumoral drug concentrations calculated for four reference lesions ranged from 0.03–0.07 nM. In all reference lesions, constant tracer accumulation was observed between 30–90 min post-injection. Blood radio-assay indicated that radiotracer clearance from blood and plasma was initially rapid (blood half-time 1.31 ± 0.81 min, plasma 1.07 ± 0.66 min; n = 4), followed variably by either a prolonged terminal phase (blood half-time 285 ± 148.49 min, plasma 240 ± 84.85 min; n = 2) or a small rise to plateau (n = 2). Like dasatinib, 18F-SKI underwent extensive metabolism post-administration, as evidenced by metabolite analysis. Radioactivity was predominantly cleared via the hepatobiliary route. The highest absorbed dose estimates (mGy/MBq) in normal tissues were to the right colon (0.167 ± 0.04) and small intestine (0.153 ± 0.03). The effective dose was 0.0258 (SD 0.0034) mSv/MBq. Conclusion: 18F-SKI demonstrated significant tumor uptake, distinct image contrast despite low injected doses, and rapid clearance from blood.




k

Biokinetics of Radiolabeled Monoclonal Antibody BC8: Differences in Biodistribution and Dosimetry among Hematologic Malignancies.

We reviewed 111In-DOTA-anti-CD45 antibody (BC8) imaging and bone marrow biopsy measurements to ascertain biodistribution and biokinetics of the radiolabeled antibody and to investigate differences based on type of hematologic malignancy. Methods: Serial whole-body scintigraphic images (4 time-points) were obtained after infusion of the 111In-DOTA-BC8 (176-406 MBq) in 52 adult patients with hematologic malignancies (lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome). Counts were obtained for the regions of interest for spleen, liver, kidneys, testicles (in males), and two marrow sites (acetabulum and sacrum) and correction for attenuation and background was made. Bone marrow biopsies were obtained 14-24 hours post-infusion and percent of administered activity was determined. Radiation absorbed doses were calculated. Results: Initial uptake in liver averaged 32% ± 8.4% (S.D.) of administered activity (52 patients), which cleared monoexponentially with biological half-time of 293 ± 157 hours (33 patients) or did not clear (19 patients). Initial uptake in spleen averaged 22% ± 12% and cleared with a biological half-time 271 ± 185 hours (36 patients) or longer (6 patients). Initial uptake in kidney averaged 2.4% ± 2.0% and cleared with a biological half-time of 243 ± 144 hours (27 patients) or longer (9 patients). Initial uptake in red marrow averaged 23% ± 11% and cleared with half-times of 215 ± 107 hours (43 patients) or longer (5 patients). Whole-body retention half-times averaged 198 ± 75 hours. Splenic uptake was higher in the AML/MDS group when compared to the lymphoma group (p ≤ 0.05) and to the multiple myeloma group (p ≤ 0.10). Liver represented the dose-limiting organ. For liver uptake, no significant differences were observed between the three malignancy groups. Average calculated radiation absorbed doses per unit administered activity for a therapy infusions of 90Y-DOTA-BC8 were for red marrow: 470 ± 260 cGy/MBq, liver 1100 ± 330 cGy/MBq, spleen 4120 ± 1950 cGy/MBq, total body 7520 ± 20 cGy/MBq, osteogenic cells 290 ± 200 cGy/MBq, and kidneys 240 ± 200 cGy/MBqR. Conclusion: 111In-DOTA-BC8 had long retention time in liver, spleen, kidneys, and red marrow, and the highest absorbed doses were calculated for spleen and liver. Few differences were observed by malignancy type. The exception was greater splenic uptake among leukemia/MDS group when compared to lymphoma and multiple myeloma groups.




k

177Lu-lilotomab satetraxetan has the potential to counteract resistance to rituximab in non-Hodgkins lymphoma

Background: Patients with NHL who are treated with rituximab may develop resistant disease, often associated with changes in expression of CD20. The next generation β-particle emitting radioimmunoconjugate 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan (Betalutin®) was shown to up-regulate CD20 expression in different rituximab-sensitive NHL cell lines and to act synergistically with rituximab in a rituximab-sensitive NHL animal model. We hypothesized that 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan may be used to reverse rituximab-resistance in NHL. Methods: The rituximab-resistant Raji2R and the parental Raji cell lines were used. CD20 expression was measured by flow cytometry. ADCC was measured by a bioluminescence reporter assay. The efficacies of combined treatments with 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan (150MBq/kg or 350MBq/kg) and rituximab (4x10mg/kg) were compared with those of single agents or saline in a Raji2R-xenograft model. Cox-regression and the Bliss independence model were used to assess synergism. Results: Rituximab-binding in Raji2R cells was 36±5% of that in the rituximab-sensitive Raji cells. 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan treatment of Raji2R cells increased the binding to 53±3% of the parental cell line. Rituximab ADCC-induction in Raji2R cells was 20±2% of that induced in Raji cells, while treatment with 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan increased the ADCC-induction to 30±3% of the Raji cells, representing a 50% increase (p<0.05). The combination of rituximab with 350MBq/kg 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan synergistically suppressed Raji2R tumor growth in athymic Foxn1nu mice. Conclusion: 177Lu-lilotomab-satetraxetan has the potential to reverse rituximab-resistance; it increases binding and ADCC-activity in-vitro and can synergistically improve anti-tumor efficacy in-vivo.




k

Letter to the Editor: Who was the first doctor to report the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China?




k

MITIGATE-NeoBOMB1, a Phase I/IIa Study to Evaluate Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Preliminary Imaging of 68Ga-NeoBOMB1, a Gastrin-releasing Peptide Receptor Antagonist, in GIST Patients

Introduction: Gastrin Releasing peptide receptors (GRPRs) are potential molecular imaging targets in a variety of tumors. Recently, a 68Ga-labelled antagonist to GRPRs, NeoBOMB1, was developed for PET. We report on the outcome of a Phase I/IIa clinical trial (EudraCT 2016-002053-38) within the EU-FP7 project Closed-loop Molecular Environment for Minimally Invasive Treatment of Patients with Metastatic Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (‘MITIGATE’) (grant agreement number 602306) in patients with oligometastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Materials and Methods: The main objectives were evaluation of safety, biodistribution, dosimetry and preliminary tumor targeting of 68Ga-NeoBOMB1 in patients with advanced TKI-treated GIST using PET/CT. Six patients with histologically confirmed GIST and unresectable primary or metastases undergoing an extended protocol for detailed pharmacokinetic analysis were included. 68Ga-NeoBOMB1 was prepared using a kit procedure with a licensed 68Ge/68Ga generator. 3 MBq/kg body-weight were injected intravenously and safety parameters were assessed. PET/CT included dynamic imaging at 5 min, 11 min and 19 min as well as static imaging at 1, 2 and 3-4 h p.i. for dosimetry calculations. Venous blood samples and urine were collected for pharmacokinetics. Tumor targeting was assessed on a per-lesion and per-patient basis. Results: 68Ga-NeoBOMB1 (50 µg) was prepared with high radiochemical purity (yield >97%). Patients received 174 ± 28 MBq of the radiotracer, which was well tolerated in all patients over a follow-up period of 4 weeks. Dosimetry calculations revealed a mean adsorbed effective dose of 0.029 ± 0.06 mSv/MBq with highest organ dose to the pancreas (0.274 ± 0.099 mSv/MBq). Mean plasma half-life was 27.3 min with primarily renal clearance (mean 25.7 ± 5.4% of injected dose 4h p.i.). Plasma metabolite analyses revealed high stability, metabolites were only detected in the urine. In three patients a significant uptake with increasing maximum standard uptake values (SUVmax at 2h p.i.: 4.3 to 25.9) over time was found in tumor lesions. Conclusion: This Phase I/IIa study provides safety data for 68Ga-NeoBOMB1, a promising radiopharmaceutical for targeting GRPR-expressing tumors. Safety profiles and pharmacokinetics are suitable for PET imaging and absorbed dose estimates are comparable to other 68Ga-labelled radiopharmaceuticals used in clinical routine.




k

Semi-automatically quantified tumor volume using Ga-68-PSMA-11-PET as biomarker for survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer

Prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) targeting Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is becoming the reference standard for prostate cancer (PC) staging, especially in advanced disease. Yet, the implications of PSMA-PET derived whole-body tumor volume for overall survival are poorly elucidated to date. This might be due to the fact that (semi-) automated quantification of whole-body tumor volume as PSMA-PET biomarker is an unmet clinical challenge. Therefore, a novel semi-automated software is proposed and evaluated by the present study, which enables the semi-automated quantification of PSMA-PET biomarkers such as whole-body tumor volume. Methods: The proposed quantification is implemented as a research prototype (MI Whole Body Analysis Suite, v1.0, Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc., Knoxville, TN). PSMA accumulating foci were automatically segmented by a percental threshold (50% of local SUVmax). Neural networks were trained to segment organs in PET-CT acquisitions (training CTs: 8,632, validation CTs: 53). Thereby, PSMA foci within organs of physiologic PSMA uptake were semi-automatically excluded from the analysis. Pretherapeutic PSMA-PET-CTs of 40 consecutive patients treated with 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy were evaluated in this analysis. The volumetric whole-body tumor volume (PSMATV50), SUVmax, SUVmean and other whole-body imaging biomarkers were calculated for each patient. Semi-automatically derived results were compared with manual readings in a sub-cohort (by one nuclear medicine physician using syngo.MM Oncology software, Siemens Healthineers, Knoxville, TN). Additionally, an inter-observer evaluation of the semi-automated approach was performed in a sub-cohort (by two nuclear medicine physicians). Results: Manually and semi automatically derived PSMA metrics were highly correlated (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001). The inter-observer agreement of the semi-automated workflow was also high (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; ICC=1.000; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001; ICC=0.997). PSMATV50 [ml] was a significant predictor of overall survival (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006, P = 0.002) and remained so in a multivariate regression including other biomarkers (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006 P = 0.004). Conclusion: PSMATV50 is a promising PSMA-PET biomarker that is reproducible and easily quantified by the proposed semi-automated software. Moreover, PSMATV50 is a significant predictor of overall survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer that receive 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy.




k

Yttrium-90 Radioembolization: Telemedicine during COVID-19 outbreak, opportunity for prime time.




k

PET imaging quantifying 68Ga-PSMA-11 uptake in metastatic colorectal cancer

At diagnosis 22% of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients have metastases and 50% later develop metastasis. Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with lutetium-177 (177Lu)-PSMA-617 is employed to treat metastatic prostate cancer (PC). 177Lu-PSMA-617 targets Prostate Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) a cell surface protein enriched in PC and the neovasculature of other solid tumors including CRC. We performed gallium-68 (68Ga)-PSMA-11 PET-CT imaging of ten metastatic CRC patients to assess metastasis avidity. Eight patients had lesions lacking avidity and two had solitary metastases exhibiting very low avidity. Despite expression of PSMA in CRC neovasculature, none of the patients exhibited tumor avidity sufficient to be considered for 177Lu-PSMA-617 PRRT.




k

Integrity of neurocognitive networks in dementing disorders as measured with simultaneous PET/fMRI

Background: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported altered integrity of large-scale neurocognitive networks (NCNs) in dementing disorders. However, findings on specificity of these alterations in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) are still very limited. Recently, NCNs have been successfully captured using positron emission tomography (PET) with F18-fluordesoxyglucose (FDG). Methods: Network integrity was measured in 72 individuals (38 male) with mild AD, bvFTD, and healthy controls using a simultaneous resting state fMRI and FDG-PET. Indices of network integrity were calculated for each subject, network, and imaging modality. Results: In either modality, independent component analysis revealed four major NCNs: anterior default mode network (DMN), posterior DMN, salience network, and right central executive network (CEN). In fMRI data, integrity of posterior DMN was found to be significantly reduced in both patient groups relative to controls. In the AD group anterior DMN and CEN appeared to be additionally affected. In PET data, only integrity of posterior DMN in patients with AD was reduced, while three remaining networks appeared to be affected only in patients with bvFTD. In a logistic regression analysis, integrity of anterior DMN as measured with PET alone accurately differentiated between the patient groups. A correlation between indices of two imaging modalities was overall low. Conclusion: FMRI and FDG-PET capture partly different aspects of network integrity. A higher disease specificity of NCNs as derived from PET data supports metabolic connectivity imaging as a promising diagnostic tool.




k

Receptor-targeted photodynamic therapy of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor positive lesions

Treatment of hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia is challenging. Surgical treatment of insulinomas and focal lesions in congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) is invasive and carries major risks of morbidity. Medication to treat nesidioblastosis and diffuse CHI has varying efficacy and causes significant side effects. Here, we describe a novel method for therapy of hyperinsulinemic hyperglycemia, highly selectively killing beta cells by targeted photodynamic therapy (tPDT) with exendin-4-IRDye700DX, targeting the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP-1R). A competitive binding assay was performed using Chinese hamster lung (CHL) cells transfected with the GLP-1R. The efficacy and specificity of tPDT with exendin-4-IRDye700DX was examined in vitro in cells with different levels of GLP-1R expression. Tracer biodistribution was determined in BALB/c nude mice bearing subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. Induction of cellular damage and the effect on tumor growth were analyzed to determine treatment efficacy. Exendin-4-IRDye700DX has a high affinity for the GLP-1R with an IC50 value of 6.3 nM. TPDT caused significant specific phototoxicity in GLP-1R positive cells (2.3 ± 0.8 % and 2.7 ± 0.3 % remaining cell viability in CHL-GLP-1R and INS-1 cells resp.). The tracer accumulates dose-dependently in GLP-1R positive tumors. In vivo tPDT induces cellular damage in tumors, shown by strong expression of cleaved-caspase-3 and leads to a prolonged median survival of the mice (36.5 vs. 22.5 days resp. p<0.05). These data show in vitro as well as in vivo evidence for the potency of tPDT using exendin-4-IRDye700DX. This could in the future provide a new, minimally invasive and highly specific treatment method for hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia.




k

The effects of monosodium glutamate on PSMA radiotracer uptake in men with recurrent prostate cancer: a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled intra-individual imaging study.

The prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is an excellent target for theranostic applications in prostate cancer (PCa). However, PSMA-targeted radioligand therapy can cause undesirable effects due to high accumulation of PSMA radiotracers in salivary glands and kidneys. This study assessed orally administered monosodium glutamate (MSG) as a potential means of reducing kidney and salivary gland radiation exposure using a PSMA targeting radiotracer. Methods: This prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled 10 biochemically recurrent PCa patients. Each subject served as his own control. [18F]DCFPyl PET/CT imaging sessions were performed 3 – 7 days apart, following oral administration of either 12.7 g of MSG or placebo. Data from the two sets of images were analyzed by placing regions of interest on lacrimal, parotid and submandibular glands, left ventricle, liver, spleen, kidneys, bowel, urinary bladder, gluteus muscle and malignant lesions. The results from MSG and placebo scans were compared by paired analysis of the ROI data. Results: A total of 142 pathological lesions along with normal tissues were analyzed. As hypothesized a priori, there was a significant decrease in maximal standardized uptake values corrected for lean body mass (SULmax) on images obtained following MSG administration in the parotids (24 ± 14%, P = 0.001), submandibular glands (35 ± 11%, P<0.001) and kidneys (23 ± 26%, P = 0.014). Significant decreases were also observed in lacrimal glands (49 ± 13%, P<0.001), liver (15 ± 6%, P<0.001), spleen (28 ± 13%, P = 0.001) and bowel (44 ± 13%, P<0.001). Mildly lower blood pool SULmean was observed after MSG administration (decrease of 11 ± 13%, P = 0.021). However, significantly lower radiotracer uptake in terms of SULmean, SULpeak, and SULmax was observed in malignant lesions on scans performed after MSG administration compared to the placebo studies (SULmax median decrease 33%, range -1 to 75%, P<0.001). No significant adverse events occurred and vital signs were stable following placebo or MSG administration. Conclusion: Orally administered MSG significantly decreased salivary gland, kidney and other normal organ PSMA radiotracer uptake in human subjects, using [18F]DCFPyL as an exemplar. However, MSG caused a corresponding reduction in tumor uptake, which may limit the benefits of this approach for diagnostic and therapeutic applications.




k

Inclusive Growth and Job Creation in Africa: The Outlook for 2019 and Beyond

Invitation Only Research Event

30 September 2019 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Head and Research Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

The IMF projects real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2019 for sub-Saharan Africa but there is a mixed picture across the continent with growth in Mauritania, Senegal, Ethiopia and Rwanda outstripping projected growth rates for South Africa and Nigeria, for example, while a handful of economies seek to emerge from crisis. Yet, as is increasingly well documented, even strong growth has not delivered lasting socio-economic transformation in many contexts. And that most pressing of needs – job creation including to accommodate, in the next 15 years, an increase in the working age population greater than that in the rest of the world combined – remains a pressing concern for governments and societies. With populations continuing to grow at faster rates than economic growth, and a significant proportion of jobs outside agriculture being in the informal sector, investment in formal labour markets is crucial to creating inclusive economic growth.
 
At this event, the International Monetary Fund’s Africa Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie will discuss the outlook for sub-Saharan African economies in 2019 and progress towards achieving inclusive economic growth to accommodate future demographic change.
 
Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Yusuf Hassan

Parliamentary and Media Outreach Assistant, Africa Programme
+44 (0) 20 7314 3645




k

Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues: Options for Economic Stabilization, Recovery and Inclusive Growth

3 October 2019

The Chatham House Africa Programme designed the Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues series to help identify the factors that have led to the current economic crisis, the immediate steps that need to be taken to avert collapse and stabilize the economy, and the longer-term structural reforms required to set Sudan on the path to recovery. The project is funded by Humanity United.

Ahmed Soliman

Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme

2019-10-03-Sudan.jpg

An employee removes bread from the oven at a bakery in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on 24 May 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Three private roundtable meetings were convened in the first quarter of 2019, with the aim of generating informed and constructive new thinking on policy options and reforms that could help Sudan build a more economically prosperous, stable and inclusive nation. The roundtables were held under the Chatham House Rule.

The project sought to offer a neutral space for discussion to policymakers and influencers from a broad range of backgrounds: Sudanese government officials, opposition figures, economists, experts on Sudan’s political economy and governance, civil society figures, representatives of international financial institutions, and other international policymakers.

This paper draws together the key themes and findings from each of the three roundtables, ranging from broad structural economic issues to sector-specific priority interventions. It presents options and recommendations for Sudanese leaders, including the transitional government, in support of building a more economically prosperous, peaceful and inclusive nation.




k

Mobilizing Multinational Military Operations in Africa: Quick Fixes or Sustainable Solutions?

Research Event

25 October 2019 - 9:30am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Tony Chafer, University of Portsmouth
Professor Gordon Cumming, Cardiff University
Dr Roel van der Velde, Cardiff University
Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Chatham House
Dr Elisa Lopez Lucia, Université Libre de Bruxelles; University of Portsmouth
Chair: Janet Adama Mohammed, West Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources

Peacekeeping missions which have sought to address evolving forms of conflict and instability on the African continent – led by the United Nations, African Union and European Union – have frequently been overstretched.

Across regions including the Sahel, the Horn and West Africa, the issues of violent extremism and criminality – often set against a backdrop of collapsing or severely weakened central states – have led to the mobilisation of a diverse set of new collective responses.

These include notable African-led efforts such as AMISOM in Somalia or more recently the G5 Sahel, where France have played a pivotal role in initiating new and more ad hoc approaches to coalition-building.

As existing multinational missions in Africa continue to evolve on the ground and while new collective opportunities increasingly present themselves, it is critical for policymakers to understand how far such efforts reflect meaningful long-term solutions to the challenges of conflict and insecurity.

At this roundtable event, participants will reflect on how such missions become mobilised and legitimised, the extent to which they can be defined as ‘new’, and whether they represent a truly sustainable means to tackle the issue of conflict in Africa.

This roundtable is held in partnership with Cardiff University and the University of Portsmouth and is supported by the Leverhulme Trust.

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3671




k

Nkirote Laiboni

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow (Central & Eastern Europe and Africa), Europe Programme

Biography

Nkirote Laiboni is a Kenyan international development and human rights practitioner with over 10 years of experience in managing humanitarian, human rights and international development programmes and coordinating research projects in Sub-Saharan Africa.

She has worked with international nongovernmental organisations on a wide range of sectors and issues including migration, humanitarian support, media development, democracy and governance, education and health.

Having previously worked on projects benefiting refugees, internally displaced persons, migrant workers, and trafficked persons in Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan and other African countries, Nkirote’s professional interest in migration has grown in recent years. Her research at Chatham House will explore and compare labour migration trends and patterns in Eastern Africa and Central and Eastern Europe.

She holds an MA in International Law and International Human Rights from the University of Peace, Costa Rica.

Areas of expertise

  • Non-profit management
  • Programme and project management
  • Participatory action research
  • Migration and human rights
  • International development
  • Humanitarian support




k

The UK, US and Mauritius: Decolonization, Security, Chagos and the ICJ

Invitation Only Research Event

30 January 2020 - 8:15am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law, UCL 
Richard Burt, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy, Chatham House

The Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean has garnered media attention recently after the UK failed to abide by a UN deadline to return the islands to Mauritius. The US has landed in the middle of the dispute as a 1965 agreement with the UK has allowed the US to establish a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, which has since become instrumental in US missions in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. 

In February 2019, an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the Chagos archipelago was unlawfully dismembered from Mauritius, in violation of the right to self-determination and that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos archipelago ‘as rapidly as possible’. The UN General Assembly subsequently voted overwhelmingly in favour of the UK leaving the islands by the end of November 2019 and the right of the former residents who were removed by the UK to return. The UK does not accept the ICJ and UN rulings and argues that the islands are needed to protect Britain from security threats while Mauritius has made clear the base can remain.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London and lead counsel for Mauritius on the ICJ case on Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, will be joining Ambassador Richard Burt, US chief negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union for a discussion on the fate of the archipelago including the future of the military base and the right of return of former residents.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme