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20-year anniversary of this blog

Our first post was twenty years ago today. It was followed by posts on The Electoral College favors voters in small states; Why it’s rational to vote; Bayes and Popper; and Overrepresentation of small states/provinces, and the USA Today effects. … Continue reading




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Where have all the count words gone? In defense of “fewer” and “among”

This is cranky linguist Bob. The lack of count markers is starting to bug me. To wit… Usage of “fewer” vs. “less” The prescriptive rule in English is that “fewer” applies to groups of countable objects whereas “less” applies to … Continue reading




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“Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections”

Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse Shapiro write: Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic … Continue reading




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948.

Data-share this, pal: As the man said, you have no obligation to share any of your data and I have no obligation to believe anything you say.




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443.

As forwarded to us by Max Shepsi: I’m starting to see a pattern here!




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Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development

I was talking with an economist today about the recent prize given to the authors of the very influential 2001 article, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. According to my colleague, many economists have issues with that … Continue reading




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Columbia Surgery Prof Fake Data Update . . . (yes, he’s still being promoted on the university webpage)

Someone pointed me to this news article with the delightful url, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/science/sam-yoon-columbia-cancer-surgeon-5-more-retractions.html: Columbia Cancer Surgeon Notches 5 More Retractions for Suspicious Data The chief of a cancer surgery division at Columbia University this week had five research articles retracted and … Continue reading




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What is the purpose of a methods section?

A frustrating aspect of science papers is that the methods section doesn’t fully describe what was actually done. It can take a lot of sleuthing to figure out how to reconstruct published results—and that doesn’t even get into all the … Continue reading




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3M misconduct regarding knowledge of “forever chemicals”: As is so often the case, the problem was in open sight for a long time before anything was done

Horrifying story here from Sharon Lerner how chemical products company 3M (which has successfully branded itself as the cuddly people behind Post-it notes) polluted the world’s water supply and covered it up for decades. It features several issues we’ve discussed … Continue reading




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“Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail.

Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading




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Props to the liberal anticommunists of the 1930s-1950s

In the 1930s and 1940s, there were many prominent communist sympathizers: leading scientists such as J. B. S. Haldane and J. Robert Oppenheimer, powerful labor leaders, influential intellectuals, and various popular-front politicians, including at one period the vice-president of the … Continue reading




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Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling

Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler: Brian Ray has spent the last three decades as one of the nation’s top evangelists for home schooling. As a researcher, he has published studies purporting to show that these … Continue reading




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Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error

A political science colleague wrote in: We are all abuzz about the Harris +3 in that Iowa Poll with its great track record. When I check the write up of this poll I see a reasonably detailed description of their … Continue reading




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Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing

U.S. election day is tomorrow. So let’s talk about something else: 1. Encoding prior information using non-generative modeling I was talking with Hong Ge about the uses of non-generative models in probabilistic programming. An example I gave is the use … Continue reading




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Self-reference and self-reproduction of evidence

Continuing our election-eve counterprogramming, here’s another post with no political content. It comes from Constantine Frangakis, who writes: I think I have found something new and interesting. In studying the topic of “evidence” for my class, where the typical principles … Continue reading




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Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.”

I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading




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Two spans of the bridge of inference

This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics … Continue reading




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If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____.

This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be … Continue reading




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Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump

Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading




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Help teaching short-course that has a healthy dose of data simulation

This post is by Lizzie. I hope you like the cats photo from this summer. I do. I am looking for help. I decided to change my term course (12-14 weeks-long) on `introduction to Bayesian modeling with some hierarchical modeling’ … Continue reading








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Joni Eareckson Tada honored by the Museum of the Bible

Christian author, speaker, and disability advocate Joni Eareckson Tada was honored with the Pillar Award for History by the Museum of the Bible...




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A Mouthful of Praise

It doesn’t happen all the time, but when it does, it’s ecstatic. The other night, after the lights went out, I tried to get to sleep but couldn’t. My prayer...




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Visualizing genetic networks of Gustave Roud’s literary works

The project provides a visual representation of the creative process... more




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Suggested reading: Hallnäs, L., & Redström, J. (2002). From use to presence: On the expressions and aesthetics of everyday computational things.

When investigating how we frame technology in the design process,... more




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Recap of the “Gephi Week” at SciencePo: inquiring the community detection algorithm of Gephi

The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more




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GAFAM Empire. An exploration of acquisitions by big tech companies

Since the mid-1970s, the world has witnessed the rise and... more




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Police Officer's Retirement Not Related to Prior On-Duty Injuries

A New York appellate court upheld a finding that a police officer’s retirement was voluntary and not caused by his prior duty-related injuries. Case: Matter of Carroll v. Nassau County Police Department, No.




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Court Upholds Denial of EMT's Hearing Loss Claim

A New York appellate court upheld the denial of an emergency medical technician’s hearing loss claim. Case: Matter of DeWolf v. Wayne County, No. CV-23-2014, 06/27/2024, published. Facts: Andrew DeWolf worked for…




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WCB Reports Faster Resolution of Medical Billing Disputes

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said it has significantly reduced turnaround times in resolving billing disputes between health care providers and payers. The board said it has reduced the…




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Employer Liable for Comp Gets Dismissal of Worker's Civil Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that an employer was entitled to the dismissal of an injured worker’s civil claims against it after it was held liable for workers’ compensation…




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Carrier's Failure to Issue Disclaimer of Liability to Additional Insureds Can't Avoid Coverage

A federal appellate court ruled that an insurance carrier’s failure to issue notice of its disclaimer of liability to two additional insureds prevented it from relying on an exclusion to defeat demands…




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WCB to Require Electronic Submission of CMS-1500 Form

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board said part of its ongoing modernization initiatives will require health care providers to contract with an electronic submission partner to submit the CMS-1500…




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Defendants Get Summary Dismissal of Suit Over Ladder Accident

A New York appellate court upheld a grant of summary judgment for the defendants in a Labor Law case. Case: Acevedo-Espinosa v. RH 250 Sherman Avenue LLC, No. 2023-01248, 09/11/2024, published. Facts:…




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Labor Law Defendants Get Summary Dismissal of Claim

A New York appellate court upheld summary judgment for the defendants in a Labor Law case involving a worker’s fall from the roof of a home undergoing renovations. Case: Argueta v…




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Employer of Allegedly Injured Worker Gets Dismissal of Third-Party Claim

A New York appellate court ruled that a third-party suit against an allegedly injured worker’s employer should have been summarily dismissed. Case: Hernandez v. Opera Owners Inc., No. 32526/19, 09/24/2024, published. Facts:…




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WCB Reopening Most Offices

The New York State Workers’ Compensation Board is reopening most offices for in-person services today. The board said the reopening of the Manhattan and Queens offices will be delayed because of…




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Worker Fails to Link Amputation of Leg to Prior Work Accident

A New York appellate court ruled that a worker failed to prove the amputation of his leg was related to his injuries from a fall in 2006. Case: Matter of DiPippo…




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Worker Fails to Prove Exacerbation of PTSD From Job Stress

A New York appellate court upheld the denial of a worker’s claim for the exacerbation of her preexisting psychological condition by alleged workplace stress. Case: Matter of Gorbea v. Verizon New…




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DIR Moving Las Vegas Office

The Nevada Division of Industrial Relations announced that its Las Vegas office and the last day business will be conducted in the current location is Tuesday. Starting Thursday, the DIR will…




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Court Overturns Denial of Hotel Housekeeper's Claim for Knee Injury

The New Mexico Court of Appeals overturned the denial of a hotel housekeeper’s claim for a knee injury. Case: Moorhead v. Hyatt Regency Tamaya, No. A-1-CA-40191, 05/07/2024, unpublished. Facts: Irene Moorhead worked…




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Worker's Choice of Pleading Removes Court's Jurisdiction Over Retaliation Claim

The New Mexico Court of Appeals ruled that an injured worker pleaded his retaliation claims in such a way as to remove his case from the jurisdiction of the state…




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WCA Seeks Public Review of Rule Changes

New Mexico's Workers' Compensation Administration says rule changes will take effect on Jan. 1, and the agency invites the public to take part in a webinar and to submit comments…




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WCA Proposes Package of Rule Changes

The New Mexico Workers’ Compensation Administration proposed a package of rule changes that would increase food and lodging reimbursements and double the payment owed to doctors for deposition testimony. The rules…




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Federal Court Upholds Damage Award for Carrier's Breach of Contract

The U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that an employer was entitled to more than $541,000 in damages for its insurance carrier’s breach of contract. Case: MVT Services LLC v. Great…




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WCA Announces Judicial Appointment of Doug Christopherson

The New Mexico Workers' Compensation Administration announced that Doug Christopherson was appointed as the agency's newest judge. Doug Christopherson Christopherson will fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Leonard Padilla in…




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Court Upholds Denial of Caregiver's Request for Amended Complaint, Dismisses Claims

The New Jersey Superior Court’s Appellate Division upheld the denial of a caregiver’s request to amend her complaint as well as the dismissal of her claims against her alleged employers. Case:…