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926 Digitizing 88-Year-Old Photos, AI Protests, Relaunches

On this episode: JUST RELEASED: the third edition of The Film Photography Handbook. JUST RELAUNCHED: chrismarquardt.com (now offers information about my services in training, consulting, production, and photography as well as some references to past work). COMING UP: The 10-day Eastern Europe photo road trip in Sep 2023 for amateur and professional photographers to visit … Continue reading "926 Digitizing 88-Year-Old Photos, AI Protests, Relaunches"

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927 Resolution: 14k

Today we’ll look at social media, massive full-resolution space imagery, weird lenses and the cautionary tale of big corporations vacuuming up massive amounts of imagery and what we can do about that (or if we even should). Also Steve has a fun film question: how to distinguish exposed (but not developed) film? Topics: [OTHER] Reminder: … Continue reading "927 Resolution: 14k"

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928 One Minute Six Hundred Pics

TFOP 245 discusses a new camera purchase and a conversation about historical photos and gold-plating photography on glass || Neurapix is a German startup that has developed AI-based software that can learn from previously edited images and apply the same edits to new photos at a fast rate || Two lawsuits against AI || xkcd … Continue reading "928 One Minute Six Hundred Pics"

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She wants to know what are best practices on flagging bad responses and cleaning survey data and detecting bad responses. Any suggestions from the tidyverse or crunch.io?

A colleague who works in a field that uses a lot of survey research asks: Can you recommend papers about detecting bad survey responses? We have some such methods where I work, but I’m curious what the Census Bureau and … Continue reading




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Where have all the count words gone? In defense of “fewer” and “among”

This is cranky linguist Bob. The lack of count markers is starting to bug me. To wit… Usage of “fewer” vs. “less” The prescriptive rule in English is that “fewer” applies to groups of countable objects whereas “less” applies to … Continue reading




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“Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections”

Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse Shapiro write: Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic … Continue reading




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“Things are Getting So Politically Polarized We Can’t Measure How Politically Polarized Things are Getting”

Sociologist Claude Fischer writes: Polarization has been less a matter of Americans becoming extremists—most remain centrists or oblivious to politics—but more that politically engaged Americans have increasingly aligned their views, values, and even their practices, from where they live to … Continue reading




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948.

Data-share this, pal: As the man said, you have no obligation to share any of your data and I have no obligation to believe anything you say.




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Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443.

As forwarded to us by Max Shepsi: I’m starting to see a pattern here!




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Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development

I was talking with an economist today about the recent prize given to the authors of the very influential 2001 article, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. According to my colleague, many economists have issues with that … Continue reading




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“It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened.”

Campos quotes a comment from a thread on RFK Jr. and his running mate: It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened. He points to this link: The physiologist … Continue reading




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Carroll/Langer: Credulous, scientist-as-hero reporting from a podcaster who should know better

tl;dr. To the extent that healing is important, I think it’s important not to overstate evidence for speculative claims about what works. Individual and societal resources are limited. If you want to say something like, “Sure, this is pie-in-the-sky research, … Continue reading




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3M misconduct regarding knowledge of “forever chemicals”: As is so often the case, the problem was in open sight for a long time before anything was done

Horrifying story here from Sharon Lerner how chemical products company 3M (which has successfully branded itself as the cuddly people behind Post-it notes) polluted the world’s water supply and covered it up for decades. It features several issues we’ve discussed … Continue reading




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ChatGPT o1-preview can code Stan

This is Bob. Yes, but can it Stan? The first few instantiations of ChatGPT haven’t been so good at Stan. This is perhaps not surprising, because there’s relatively little written about Stan on the web compared to, say, Python, C++, … Continue reading




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Which book should you read first, Active Statistics or Regression and Other Stories?

Kiran Gauthier writes: I was checking the web pages for Active Statistics and Regression and Other Stories and although I saw that Active Statistics is meant to accompany Regression and Other Stories, I was wondering how you would recommend reading … Continue reading




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Postdoc opportunity! to work with me here at Columbia! on Bayesian workflow! for contamination models! With some wonderful collaborators!!

Laboratory assays are central to much of biomedical research. My colleagues and I recently received a research grant to do better assays using Bayesian inference. Beyond the usual challenges of fitting nonlinear hierarchical models to real data that can sometimes … Continue reading




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Flatiron Institute hiring: postdocs, joint faculty, and permanent research positions

This is Bob. We’re hiring It’s that time of year again and we’re hiring at all levels at the Center for Computational Mathematics (CCM) at Flatiron Institute (the in-house research arm of Simons Foundation). As they are listed, job ads … Continue reading




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Prediction markets and the need for “dumb money” as well as “smart money”

tl;dr. Prediction markets give good forecasts because they attract “smart money” that will fix any gaps between current odds and best available information. The “smart money” is in turn motivated by the profits they can take from “dumb money” coming … Continue reading




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This one might possibly be interesting.

Bert Gunter points to this news article by Jeffrey Brainard that reports: Careful scientists know to acknowledge uncertainty in the findings and conclusions of their papers. But in one leading journal, the frequency of hedging words such as “might” and … Continue reading




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“Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail.

Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading




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NYT catches up to Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

A colleague pointed to this news article, “Do People in ‘Blue Zones’ Actually Live Longer?”, and wrote that I might find it blog-worthy. I replied that, yeah, the topic is blog-worthy enough that it’s already appeared on the blog, with … Continue reading




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Freakonomics does it again (not in a good way). Jeez, these guys are credulous:

From the team that brought you “good-looking parents are 36% more likely to have a baby daughter as their first child than a baby son” and “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually … Continue reading




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A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past vote

A colleague writes: Have you seen this article by Nate Cohn at the New York Times? A few things in it seemed weird. For one, he writes: The tendency for recall vote to overstate the winner of the last election … Continue reading




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StanCon 2024 Oxford: recorded talks are now released!

(This post is by Charles) The title says it all: recordings of StanCon 2024 are now available on Stan’s youtube channel. We’re happy to make the content of StanCon 2024 accessible, even to those who couldn’t make it in person. … Continue reading




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“Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???”

Shane Frederick writes: Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=??? Shane sends me this kind … Continue reading




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Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?

This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading




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A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote

There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming in every day, so it makes sense that forecasts change too. But they don’t change very much. Each new piece of information tells you only a little bit. … Continue reading




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Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling

Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler: Brian Ray has spent the last three decades as one of the nation’s top evangelists for home schooling. As a researcher, he has published studies purporting to show that these … Continue reading




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Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses?

There are actually two questions here: 1. Should pollsters share all the information on their design, data collection, and analyses? 2. If yes on question 1 above, should this information be made public ahead of time, before the survey is … Continue reading




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Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error

A political science colleague wrote in: We are all abuzz about the Harris +3 in that Iowa Poll with its great track record. When I check the write up of this poll I see a reasonably detailed description of their … Continue reading




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Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing

U.S. election day is tomorrow. So let’s talk about something else: 1. Encoding prior information using non-generative modeling I was talking with Hong Ge about the uses of non-generative models in probabilistic programming. An example I gave is the use … Continue reading




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What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades)

There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading




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Self-reference and self-reproduction of evidence

Continuing our election-eve counterprogramming, here’s another post with no political content. It comes from Constantine Frangakis, who writes: I think I have found something new and interesting. In studying the topic of “evidence” for my class, where the typical principles … Continue reading




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Reflections on the recent election

These are my quick thoughts. I’m sure I’ve missed a lot, so feel free to add your perspectives in comments. 1. The outcome In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote and lost in the electoral college. In 2020 … Continue reading




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Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.”

I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading




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The Red Sox are hiring

Here’s another job opportunity for baseball enthusiasts and Stan users! The Boston Red Sox are building out their R&D group and are currently hiring for the position of Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics. Although the listed qualifications don’t specifically mention Stan, … Continue reading




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Bad science as genre fiction: I think there’s a lot to be said for this analogy!

I came across this blog comment from a couple years ago saying that, whatever was going on in the head of Brian “Pizzagate” Wansink when he wrote up those papers with the fake data, in any case his papers papers … Continue reading




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Two spans of the bridge of inference

This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics … Continue reading




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If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____.

This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be … Continue reading




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Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump

Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading




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Prediction markets in 2024 and poll aggregation in 2008

With news items such How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election and Prediction markets got Trump’s victory right; Betting markets predicted a Trump victory, while traditional polls were showing a tossup, prediction markets are having their coming-out party. Before … Continue reading




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Be the Change: Celebrating Down Syndrome Awareness Month

I love October. Crisp mornings and hot cider help me welcome autumn. Change is in the air—you can feel it. One of my very favorite things about October...




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Joni Eareckson Tada honored by the Museum of the Bible

Christian author, speaker, and disability advocate Joni Eareckson Tada was honored with the Pillar Award for History by the Museum of the Bible...




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DensityDesign Open Presentations 2022

We are happy to invite you to the Open Presentations... more




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Suggested reading: Hallnäs, L., & Redström, J. (2002). From use to presence: On the expressions and aesthetics of everyday computational things.

When investigating how we frame technology in the design process,... more




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Recap of the “Gephi Week” at SciencePo: inquiring the community detection algorithm of Gephi

The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more




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Research through Visualization in Literary Criticism

This thesis describes the results of a multi-year experience conducted... more




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GAFAM Empire. An exploration of acquisitions by big tech companies

Since the mid-1970s, the world has witnessed the rise and... more




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Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important?

After years of watching clients struggle with clunky, one-size-fits-all designs, we’ve learned that a great website needs to fit perfectly into any screen it meets, no matter how great the design is. Many see responsive design as a technical maze, but in this post, we’ll try to guide you through some of the challenges (and […]

The post Responsive Design: What Is It & Why Is It Important? appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog.




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Divi 5 Public Alpha Progress Update (200+ Changes)

Last month, we released the Divi 5 Public Alpha, and we’ve been 100% focused on fixing the bugs you’ve been reporting. We released two new versions (Public Alpha Version 1 and Public Alpha Version Two), including over 200 bug fixes and improvements. Download The Divi 5 Alpha Next Stop, Stability We have our eyes set […]

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