000
AGXX40 KNHC 091920
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EDT Sat May 9 2020

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from extends from the Florida Big Bend to 28N90W to
25N95W then transitions to a stationary front to 22N98W. A
surface trough is ahead of the front in the Bay of Campeche. The
front will move to the central Gulf waters today and gradually
stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the SW Gulf today, and track NE toward South
Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition back to a
cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon. Numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most of the
southern and eastern Gulf waters this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The
aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and reduce to
the south-central Caribbean for the remainder period.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front extending from 31N77W to 29N81W will move across
the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun. Weak low pressure in
the Gulf of Mexico will track NE across south Florida into the
Bahamas Sun through Mon night enhancing winds and generating
numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, a
cold front will move across the northern and central waters
through Mon night, then stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba
late Tue.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.

Infectious Disease Advisor editor Natasha Priya Dyal, M.D., joins The PR Week to discuss the one topic on everyone's mind: COVID-19.

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1503 UTC Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N122W. The
ITCZ extends from there to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 90W, from 03N to
11N between 94W and 114W, and from 05N to 07W west of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. As a result, winds this morning
off of Mexico and in the Gulf of California were only moderate
breeze or weaker. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico
will promote strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region
late tonight and continue through Mon night. Peak seas should
reach 10-12 ft due to N wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere
tranquil conditions are expected across the area through at least
Wed night.

Long period SW swell will impact the waters through Monday. An
altimeter pass showed peak seas of 8 to 9 ft south of Mexico
late last night.

Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may
reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to
near Cabo Corrientes.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A flat pressure gradient over the waters is forcing winds of
only fresh breeze or weaker. Winds will remain tranquil during
the next several days.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the offshore
waters of Central America, Ecuador and Colombia through the
weekend before gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an
altimeter pass last night were around 10 ft between the Galapagos
and Ecuador.

Haze and areas of smoke may reduce visibilities near the coasts
of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala during the next few
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. The relatively flat pressure
gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is causing NE trades of
generally moderate breeze or weaker this morning. Peak seas are 8
to 10 ft east of 120W and south of 15N, primarily due to long-
period SW swell.

A weak cold front will reach our NW corner of 30N140W Sun morning
and progress to 30N132W to 24N140W Mon morning, before
dissipating by Tue morning. SW winds ahead and NW winds behind
the front should remain fresh breeze or weaker. A NW swell of 8
to 10 ft will impact the waters north of 25N west of 130W Sun
night through Tue morning. Elsewhere winds should remain tranquil
through at least Wed night.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the high seas
waters south of 15N and east of 125W through the weekend before
gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an altimeter pass last
night were around 10 ft well west of the Galapagos.

$$
Landsea

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EDT Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N24W to 00N38W to 00N50W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between 09W-
22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm of the
ITCZ between 32W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida to 28N93W to 26N96W,
then transitions to a stationary front from 26N96W to the coast
of Mexico near 22N98W and inland to beyond 25N101W. As of 1500
UTC, a weak 1014 low is analyzed along the front near 25N96W.
Numerous strong convection is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from 19N-24N between 93.5W-96.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is elsewhere inside the points
bounded by 29N96W to 29N90W to 25N92W to 23N86W to 19N97W to
29N96W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds over the
northern Gulf, north of the cold front and northwest of the
surface low near the Texas coast.

An area of strong winds are also seen off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SE
Gulf, as an E-W surface ridge is seen extending along 25N from
73W-88W.

The cold front will move S to the central Gulf waters later
today and gradually stall through Sun. The weak low pressure
over the SW Gulf will track east-northeastward toward South
Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition back to a
cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will impact most of the southern and
eastern Gulf waters through the rest of this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over
the western Caribbean. A weak surface trough over Cuba is
inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms north of 20N
between 77W-88W.

Farther south, troughing extending from the east Pacific over
Central America is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from
the eastern coast of Honduras to Panama, and extending out
offshore to 60 nm from the Caribbean coast of Central America. A
recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades between 67W-75W, with
fresh trades elsewhere from 10.5N-18N between 63W-79W. Moderate
winds are seen elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The
aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and will be
confined to the south-central Caribbean through the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the waters east of northern Florida and
extends from 32N75W to Daytona Beach Florida to the western Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh winds prevail on both sides of the cold front
north of 28N between 69W-81W. Strong winds are north of 30N.
Only isolated showers are noted with this front. The front will
move across the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun.

A cold front extends from 32N46W to 28N52W to 25.5N61W. It
continues WSW as a stationary front from 25.5N61W to the Bahamas
near 23N75W. A surface trough is analyzed from 23N75W across
Cuba to 21N83W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over
portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas from 22N-24N
between 72.5W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
elsewhere within 60 nm of the surface trough and stationary
front. Isolated showers are along the cold front. A 1025 mb high
is centered near 29N37W. A weak surface trough extends across
the Canary Islands from 31N14W to 25N23W with isolated showers.

Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track ENE across
South Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon night, enhancing
winds and generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the
wake of the low, a cold front will move across the waters east
of Florida and the northern Bahamas through Mon night, then
stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba late Tue.

$$
Hagen

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The offer is now scheduled to expire on May 12, 2020.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250232
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019
1100 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019

Sebastien has lost its tropical characteristics this evening. The
deep convection has decoupled from the low-level circulation, and
these features are now separated by a distance of 100 n mi and
increasing. Two partial ASCAT passes revealed that the surface low
is becoming stretched out, and there is some evidence of a boundary,
possibly a front, extending northeast from the center. Furthermore,
recent observations from Corbo and Flores islands in the Azores
indicated a slight temperature decrease as the center passed by to
the north of those islands, suggesting that a weak cold front is
associated with the the cyclone. Based on all of these data, there
is high confidence that Sebastien has transitioned to an
extratropical cyclone. The initial advisory intensity is 50 kt which
is based on 47 kt winds sampled by the scatterometer and a
subjective intensity estimate from TAFB.

Post-tropical cyclone Sebastien is moving northeastward at 35 kt,
embedded in the strong flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper-
level trough. This motion, and the cyclone's current intensity, is
expected to persist for the next day or so, before the cyclone
merges with a higher-latitude low.

The cyclone will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to
portions of the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products
issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere
(IPMA) for more details.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 41.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 22.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/0000Z 48.1N 14.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

...

...

Prof Subra Suresh, a Distinguished University Professor and President of NTU Singapore, was honoured by his alma mater, the Indian Institute of Technology Madras, which launched the Prof Subra Suresh Institute Lecture Series....

...

An international research team jointly led by NTU Singapore, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory and Germany's Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY) has for the first time observed the ultrafast formation and then breakdown of the water ion that is created when water is exposed to ionising radiation....

...

A study of families in Singapore with terminally ill children found that parents tend to defer discussing their psychological pain with their spouses to protect them from emotional distress. The study, conducted by psychologists at NTU through interviews, revealed the parents’ preference to support each other in pragmatic and solution-oriented ways such as discussing treatment options, arranging care plans and sharing caregiving responsibilities....

...

...

Professor Su Guaning, President Emeritus of Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), has been elected to the United States' National Academy of Engineering (NAE)....

...

​The NTU Open House and NTU Career Fair, two of the biggest annual events in the calendar at NTU Singapore, will be presented virtually this year, in response to the evolving Covid-19 situation and advice to avoid crowds and holding large-scale events....

...

Prof Stephan Schuster, research director at NTU’s Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, is working with Asst Prof Sanjay Chotirmall, from NTU’s Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, to understand the role of the air microbiome (which includes organisms such as bacteria and fungi) in relation to the lung....

...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171432
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds.
Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that
the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum
pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations
from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is
located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt.

The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is
uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined.
Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then
north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large
developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24
to 36 hours.

The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing
trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information
about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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807
WTPZ44 KNHC 210234
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Priscilla Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The rugged terrain of Mexico has taken a toll on Priscilla. Surface
observations indicate that the system no longer has a closed
surface circulation, and therefore this is the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is
still a fair amount of deep convection associated with the
remnant trough over portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico. Since the surface trough is expected to linger for another
couple of days over southwestern Mexico, there remains a significant
threat of heavy rains and flash flooding over that region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi