But there is a lot of upward momentum in supply that needs to be reversed.

The Permian rig count dropped by 37 rigs.

The Permian Basin rig count fell by 27 from the previous week.

The Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with low oil prices, is likely to cause the largest monthly drop in fracking activity ever recorded in the United States, according to Rystad Energy.

Longer-term, the outlook for US production is not all gloom as domestic demand will clearly return.

Unprecedented crude oil demand declines over the second quarter of the year will wipe out over a decade of industry growth in barrel terms.

The rush to develop Argentina's giant Vaca Muerta shale field was already wobbling when the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161752
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance has become less organized, and there is no sign of a
new center forming offshore at this time. So, while there is still
a small chance that the system could form into a tropical cyclone,
the system no longer poses a threat of bringing tropical-storm
conditions to the coast of Mexico, and this special advisory is
being issued to discontinue the tropical storm watch for the coast
of Mexico. The disturbance should continue to interact with the
mountains of southern Mexico during the next day or so, which should
most likely cause its dissipation after 12 h.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system unless the threat of tropical storm conditions
increases along the coast of Mexico. However, the heavy rainfall
threat, as well as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
in southern Mexico, should continue for the next day or two.
Please refer to forecasts and warnings from the Meteorological
Service of Mexico for more information on this ongoing threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1800Z 16.6N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Approximately 984 employees were affected.

New figures released this week show a decline in suspected coronavirus cases across the UK's offshore oil and gas sector.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260253
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone
becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was
observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp
temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone.
It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any
significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface
observations suggest that either the front passes through the center
of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based
on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this
is the last NHC advisory.

Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas
associated the front are now considered to be representative of the
overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at
45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt
found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's
strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday
morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi
Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great
Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated
before the end of the weekend.

Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated
tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical
Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible
tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information
specific to your area, please see products from your local weather
service office at weather.gov.

Key messages:

1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about
hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes
can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 27.8N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
WTNT43 KNHC 281440
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection
near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and
showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now
become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to
35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the
scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force
winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with
Pablo.

The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over
the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger
mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the
Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262035
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at
least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more
stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression
has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial
intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located
n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although
the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight
during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with
strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection
from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the
remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours.

The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually
nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this
afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010832
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019
500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a
remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection. In
addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system
over the northeastern Atlantic. Re-development of deep convection
appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to
weaken to a trough between 12-24 h.

The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion
is expected until the system dissipates.

This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National
Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular
products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and
Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at
https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 40.6N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/1800Z 40.2N 24.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192041
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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