da My rise as a refugee girl: Why I’m giving back to girls in South Sudan By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 19 Jun 2019 16:15:05 +0000 Being born and growing up in Ibuga refugee camp in Western Uganda, I had never felt the sweetness of my home country nor even what it looked like. As a young girl, I thought the camp was my country, only to learn that it was not. Rather, when I was 8 years old, I learned… Full Article
da Can Sudan’s military be convinced to support democracy? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 25 Jun 2019 22:40:25 +0000 Full Article
da Africa in the news: SACU-UK trade agreement, Nigeria’s border closures, and Sudan’s transitional government By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sat, 14 Sep 2019 12:45:13 +0000 Southern African Customs Union and Mozambique sign post-Brexit trade agreement with the United Kingdom On Tuesday, the United Kingdom signed an economic partnership agreement with six African countries, including the five-country Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Mozambique, that would take effect after the U.K.’s official exit from the European Union. SACU includes Botswana, eSwatini,… Full Article
da Africa in the news: Nagy visits Africa, locust outbreak threatens East Africa, and Burundi update By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sat, 01 Feb 2020 12:30:12 +0000 Security and youth top agenda during US Assistant Secretary of State Nagy’s visit to Africa On January 15, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy headed to Africa for a six-nation tour that included stops in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia. Security was on the top of the agenda… Full Article
da Why Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan should ditch a rushed, Washington-brokered Nile Treaty By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 18 Feb 2020 23:29:27 +0000 The ambitious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been a point of contention among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in recent years. The GERD is now 70 percent complete and its reservoir expected to start being filled in the rainy season of 2020. The three countries, however, have not yet reached an agreement on the process… Full Article
da Africa in the news: Updates on Togo, Guinea-Bissau, South Sudan, and health challenges By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sat, 07 Mar 2020 12:00:02 +0000 Guinea-Bissau and TOGO election updates Leadership in Guinea-Bissau remains unclear as the results of the December 29 runoff presidential election are being challenged in the country’s supreme court. Late last month, the country’s National Election Commission declared former Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embalo of the Movement of Democratic Change the winner with about 54 percent… Full Article
da Who said what after day one of the Young Driver Test By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 17:20:38 GMT Read what the drivers and teams had to say after day one of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi Full Article
da Who said what after day two of the Young Driver Test By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 15:40:45 GMT Read what the drivers and teams had to say after day two of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi Full Article
da Vergne still on top after second day of Young Driver Test By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 15:35:07 GMT Jean-Eric Vergne impressed for Red Bull as he set the fastest time on the opening day of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi Full Article
da Who said what after the final day of the Young Driver Test By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Thu, 17 Nov 2011 15:13:40 GMT Read what the drivers and teams had to say after the final day of the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi Full Article
da Who said what after Friday practice in Brazil By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Sat, 26 Nov 2011 15:35:19 GMT Read what the drivers had to say after Friday practice for the Brazilian Grand Prix Full Article
da Is activism against Deepavali firecrackers a one-day campaign against Hinduism? By www.thenewsminute.com Published On :: Fri, 20 Oct 2017 05:40:22 +0000 Air pollution Why are activists opposing an ‘old tradition’, and why not complain against other festivals? An environmentalist answers.Nityanand JayaramanPTIThe run-up to Deepavali this year saw a fierce debate on religion and tradition versus the environment and pollution. This after the Supreme Court imposed a ban on the sale of firecrackers in New Delhi and NCR in an attempt to curb pollution. With public opinion polarised on the issue, environmentalist Nityanand Jayaraman, working with the Vettiver Collective in Chennai, answers some fundamental questions raised in the debate. There are four questions which I am going to address here. The first is - It is just a few days of celebration. How much harm can it cause? Second - What about the air pollution during the rest of the year? Third – This is a tradition that we have followed for millennia. This was never a problem when we were growing up. Why is it a problem now? Fourth – What about the pollution caused by other festivals? Here's my response. 1. It is just a few days of celebration. How much harm can it cause? The intensity of the celebration (bursting firecrackers) depends on the number of people bursting, the duration of the celebration and the quantity and type of firecrackers they burst. This can be ameliorated or worsened by weather conditions, and whether you live in a congested area or an open neighbourhood. The unfettered bursting of firecrackers can send air quality plummeting as it did yesterday (Wednesday), when air quality index (AQI) was 15 times worse than satisfactory levels. As I have written, it is a scientific fact that AQI above 400 will harm even healthy people, and may send children and other vulnerable populations to the emergency ward. Even brief exposures to such high levels can cause extreme distress to such people. Our tradition does not teach us to harm others, and I'm sure people who are bursting firecrackers are not doing that to harm others or send children and the elderly to the hospital. They are doing that because they don't know, and are not told that there are healthier ways to celebrate. At such high levels, there is no escape from the killer dust, which will go deep into your bodies and harm you over a long term. The damage due to short exposures to intense pollution can be significant and prolonged. This is particularly so, when the remaining 365 days are also spent in unhealthy conditions, and you allude to that. This brings me to your second challenge. Read: Chennai chokes on Deepavali, air pollution at hazardous levels 2. Why is enough not being done about air pollution during the rest of the year? Why do people cry and shout only during Diwali? You are right that enough is not being done about air pollution during the rest of the year. I work in a collective that lends support to communities in Ennore, a port near Chennai, where coal-fired thermal power plants and heavy vehicle movement has rendered air quality unhealthy throughout the year. No matter how loudly we shout, we are unable to make ourselves heard. We also talk about pollution of the Ennore Creek with oily wastes from the Manali petrochemical refinery. Every day, the refinery and the industrial estate discharges tonnes of toxic, noxious oily wastes into the Ennore Creek and the Bay of Bengal. Fisherfolk have been shouting about it since 1990s. But they are not being heard. It is not because the fisherfolk are not loud enough. Rather it is because we are deaf or unwilling to listen. It was ironic then that when the oil tanker collision sent oily wastes into the Bay of Bengal, all of Chennai was self-righteously indignant. You are right that after Deepavali the air (pollution) clears. When we think that air has returned to normal, air quality levels will still be high enough to harm us. What that should tell us is not that Deepavali pollution should be condoned, but that the pollution during the rest of the year needs to be curbed by tackling its causes – private vehicles, air pollution intensive electricity generation, poor construction practices and inadequate vegetative cover within the city. Also, it is not only during Diwali that we shout. You will notice a similar spike in concern over air pollution in January around Bhogi, when the burning of old things (including tyres) and unfavourable meteorological conditions intensify air pollution. In September, when the Velankanni Church celebrates the Feast of Our Lady, the beach in Chennai and all roads leading to Besant Nagar are just trashed by earnest devotees. Clearly the problem is not restricted to any one religion, and all religions and all rituals need to be re-evaluated in light of growing evidence that human lifestyles are harming the environment and humans who need air, water, and food to survive. Also read: Air quality plummets in Hyderabad on Diwali day 3. This is a tradition that we have followed for millennia. This was never a problem when we were growing up. Why are we making it a problem now? This is incorrect. Deepavali is a festival of lights, not a festival of noise and smoke. You are right that bursting firecrackers was a part of the Deepavali ritual when we were growing up. But it was not always that way. Lighting lamps which was an important part of Deepavali is hardly done nowadays, and bursting firecrackers has become more common place. The difference between when we were growing up and now is two-fold: a) There were a lot fewer people. In 1970, India's population was 550 million less than half of what it is now. Chennai had a population of 3 million as against a population of 5 million today – two million additional people live in the same land area. b) Overall, there were fewer people, and disposable incomes were small. Today, the middle class has expanded and the disposable income has increased. Hence, more people bursting more crackers. The same thing that we did a few decades ago with little impact has now become deadly. Traditions are not unchanging. Neither are the changes uniformly bad or good. Complaining about Deepavali's pollution is not an attack on Hindu tradition. It is a plea to change that tradition so that Deepavali can actually become a happy one. But Deepavalis of this loud and smoky kind are not happy for many, and particularly traumatic for animals. We would not permit our children to entertain themselves by stoning a kitten or a puppy; rather, we may teach them to enjoy themselves by petting it or feeding it. Similarly, why can't we kindle the spirit of celebration by engaging in compassionate but equally fun engagements? Why can't Deepavali be a festival of lights – a gentle festival, where we invite friends, sing songs, eat good food? 4. What about pollution caused by festivals of other religions? All our places of worship, and our rituals – irrespective of religion – have become anti-life. Christmas is a vulgar occasion of shopping and gifting things we never knew we needed to people who have no need for any more things. Increasingly, Christmas is less and less about Christ and more and more about shopping. So, you're right that we should be questioning and challenging any practices that make one person's celebration into another person's pain. I can appreciate your angst at the use of loudspeakers for religious purposes. This is done by “followers” of all religions, and there is a prohibition on this beyond 10 p.m. We could do better. Happy Smokeless, Noiseless Deepavali! Full Article
da Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean: October 2019 Workshop Summary & Recommendations By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 6, 2020 Apr 6, 2020The Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative and the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute co-hosted a workshop with the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government entitled, Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean. The event convened global thought leaders, diverse stakeholders, and subject matter experts to begin developing a framework for tackling Arctic marine plastic pollution as one of the focus areas for the Icelandic Chairmanship. Full Article
da The Low-Yield Nuclear Warhead: A Dangerous Weapon Based on Bad Strategic Thinking By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 28, 2020 Jan 28, 2020In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect. Full Article
da Budapest Memorandum at 25: Between Past and Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 17, 2020 Mar 17, 2020On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny. On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the memorandum’s signature, the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, with the support of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, hosted a conference to revisit the history of the Budapest Memorandum, consider the repercussions of its violation for international security and the broader nonproliferation regime, and draw lessons for the future. The conference brought together academics, practitioners, and experts who have contributed to developing U.S. policy toward post-Soviet nuclear disarmament, participated in the negotiations of the Budapest Memorandum, and dealt with the repercussions of its breach in 2014. The conference highlighted five key lessons learned from the experience of Ukraine’s disarmament, highlighted at the conference. Full Article
da McLaren-Honda working 'relentlessly' - Button By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Tue, 24 Mar 2015 13:40:12 GMT Jenson Button says McLaren and Honda are working flat-out to develop its package but are still bracing themselves for another difficult weekend in Malaysia Full Article
da McLaren getting more from Honda PU - Button By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2015 13:06:31 GMT Jenson Button was in an optimistic mood following Friday practice in Malaysia after seeing McLaren make a step forward from its dismal Australian Grand Prix pace Full Article
da The Low-Yield Nuclear Warhead: A Dangerous Weapon Based on Bad Strategic Thinking By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 28, 2020 Jan 28, 2020In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect. Full Article
da Budapest Memorandum at 25: Between Past and Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 17, 2020 Mar 17, 2020On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny. On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the memorandum’s signature, the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, with the support of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, hosted a conference to revisit the history of the Budapest Memorandum, consider the repercussions of its violation for international security and the broader nonproliferation regime, and draw lessons for the future. The conference brought together academics, practitioners, and experts who have contributed to developing U.S. policy toward post-Soviet nuclear disarmament, participated in the negotiations of the Budapest Memorandum, and dealt with the repercussions of its breach in 2014. The conference highlighted five key lessons learned from the experience of Ukraine’s disarmament, highlighted at the conference. Full Article
da Ferrari fans mark Schumacher's birthday with vigil By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Fri, 03 Jan 2014 15:35:29 GMT Ferrari fans have marked Michael Schumacher's birthday with a vigil outside the hospital where he is being treated in Grenoble Full Article
da Schumacher 'sedation is being reduced' confirms family By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Thu, 30 Jan 2014 11:46:38 GMT The family of Michael Schumacher have confirmed media reports he is slowly being brought out of his medically induced coma Full Article
da Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean: October 2019 Workshop Summary & Recommendations By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 6, 2020 Apr 6, 2020The Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative and the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute co-hosted a workshop with the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government entitled, Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean. The event convened global thought leaders, diverse stakeholders, and subject matter experts to begin developing a framework for tackling Arctic marine plastic pollution as one of the focus areas for the Icelandic Chairmanship. Full Article
da From Islamists to Muslim Democrats: The case of Tunisia’s Ennahda By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 20 Jan 2020 17:03:19 +0000 Full Article
da The dark side of consensus in Tunisia: Lessons from 2015-2019 By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 31 Jan 2020 16:55:04 +0000 Executive Summary Since the 2011 revolution, Tunisia has been considered a model for its pursuit of consensus between secular and Islamist forces. While other Arab Spring countries descended into civil war or military dictatorship, Tunisia instead chose dialogue and cooperation, forming a secular-Islamist coalition government in 2011 and approving a constitution by near unanimity in… Full Article
da The Low-Yield Nuclear Warhead: A Dangerous Weapon Based on Bad Strategic Thinking By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 28, 2020 Jan 28, 2020In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect. Full Article
da Budapest Memorandum at 25: Between Past and Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 17, 2020 Mar 17, 2020On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny. On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the memorandum’s signature, the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, with the support of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, hosted a conference to revisit the history of the Budapest Memorandum, consider the repercussions of its violation for international security and the broader nonproliferation regime, and draw lessons for the future. The conference brought together academics, practitioners, and experts who have contributed to developing U.S. policy toward post-Soviet nuclear disarmament, participated in the negotiations of the Budapest Memorandum, and dealt with the repercussions of its breach in 2014. The conference highlighted five key lessons learned from the experience of Ukraine’s disarmament, highlighted at the conference. Full Article
da Technology and the Federal Government: Recommendations for the Innovation Advisory Board By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 06 Jun 2011 15:14:00 -0400 Our former Brookings colleague Rebecca Blank, now at the Commerce Department, is today leading the first meeting of the Obama Administration’s Innovation Advisory Board, looking at the innovative capacity and economic competitiveness of the United States.I applaud the effort. Nothing is more important to America’s longterm competitiveness than emphasizing innovation. As the council looks to the private sector and global markets, I urge it to examine how the U.S. government can lead innovation and contribute to economic growth. The best place to look is new and emerging digital technologies that can make government more accessible, accountable, responsive and efficient for the people who use government services every day. Here are some of the recommendations I made in a recent paper I wrote with colleagues here at Brookings as part of our “Growth Through Innovation” initiative: Save money and gain efficiency by moving federal IT functions “to the cloud,” i.e., using advances in cloud computing to put software, hardware, services and data storage through remote file servers. Continue to prioritize the Obama administration’s existing efforts to put unparalleled amounts of data online at Data.gov and other federal sites, making it easier and cheaper for citizens and businesses to access the information they need. Use social media networks to deliver information to the public and to solicit feedback to improve government performance. Integrate ideas and operations with state and local organizations, where much of government innovation is taking place today. Apply the methods of private-sector business planning to the public sector to produce region-specific business plans that are low cost and high impact. These improvements in government services innovations in the digital age can help spur innovation and support a robust business climate. And, as a sorely needed side benefit, they can also serve to eliminate some of the current distrust and even contempt for government that has brought public approval of the performance of the federal government to near historic lows. Authors Darrell M. West Image Source: © Mario Anzuoni / Reuters Full Article
da Bridging Transatlantic Differences on Data and Privacy After Snowden By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 20 May 2014 07:30:00 -0400 “Missed connections” is the personals ads category for people whose encounters are too fleeting to form any union – a lost-and-found for relationships. I gave that title to my paper on the conversation between the United States and for Europe on data, privacy, and surveillance because I thought it provides an apt metaphor for the hopes and frustrations on both sides of that conversation. The United States and Europe are linked by common values and overlapping heritage, an enduring security alliance, and the world’s largest trading relationship. Europe has become the largest crossroad of the Internet and the transatlantic backbone is the global Internet’s highest capacity route. [I] But differences in approaches to the regulation of the privacy of personal information threaten to disrupt the vast flow of information between Europe and the U.S. These differences have been exacerbated by the Edward Snowden disclosures, especially stories about the PRISM program and eavesdropping on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cell phone. The reaction has been profound enough to give momentum to calls for suspension of the “Safe Harbor” agreement that facilitates transfers of data between the U.S. Europe; and Chancellor Merkel, the European Parliament, and other EU leaders who have called for some form of European Internet that would keep data on European citizens inside EU borders. So it can seem like the U.S. and EU are gazing at each other from trains headed in opposite directions. My paper went to press before last week’s European Court of Justice ruling that Google must block search results showing that a Spanish citizen had property attached for debt several years ago. What is most startling about the decision is this information was accurate and had been published in a Spanish newspaper by government mandate but – for these reasons – the newspaper was not obligated to remove the information from its website; nevertheless, Google could be required to remove links to that website from search results in Spain. That is quite different from the way the right to privacy has been applied in America. The decision’s discussion of search as “profiling” bears out what the paper says about European attitudes toward Google and U.S. Internet companies. So the decision heightens the differences between the U.S. and Europe. Nonetheless, it does not have to be so desperate. In my paper, I look at the issues that have divided the United States and Europe when it comes to data and the things they have in common, the issues currently in play, and some ways the United States can help to steer the conversation in the right direction. [I] "Europe Emerges as Global Internet Hub," Telegeography, September 18, 2013. Authors Cameron F. Kerry Image Source: © Yves Herman / Reuters Full Article
da Missed Connections: Talking With Europe About Data, Privacy, and Surveillance By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 20 May 2014 11:57:00 -0400 The United States exports digital goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars across the Atlantic each year. And both Silicon Valley and Hollywood do big business with Europe every year. Differences in approaches to privacy have always made this relationship unsteady but the Snowden disclosures greatly complicated the prospects of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. In this paper Cameron Kerry examines that politics of transatlantic trade and the critical role that U.S. privacy policy plays in these conversations. Kerry relies on his experience as the U.S.’s chief international negotiator for privacy and data regulation to provide an overview of key proposals related to privacy and data in Europe. He addresses the possible development of a European Internet and the current regulatory regime known as Safe Harbor. Kerry argues that America and Europe have different approaches to protecting privacy both which have strengths and weaknesses. To promote transatlantic trade the United states should: Not be defensive about its protection of privacy Provide clear information to the worldwide community about American law enforcement surveillance Strengthen its own privacy protection Focus on the importance of trade to the American and European economies Downloads Download the paper Authors Cameron F. Kerry Image Source: © Francois Lenoir / Reuters Full Article
da Hard Road to Damascus: A Crisis Simulation of U.S.-Iranian Confrontation Over Syria By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Jan 2014 14:59:00 -0500 Last September, as part of its annual conference with the United States Central Command, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution conducted a day-long simulation of a confrontation between the United States and Iran arising from a hypothetical scenario in which the Syrian opposition had made significant gains in its civil war and was on the verge of crushing the Assad regime. The simulation suggested that, even in the wake of President Rouhani’s ascension to power and the changed atmosphere between Tehran and Washington, there is still a risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation between the two sides. This new Middle East Memo examines the possible U.S. foreign policy lessons that emerged from this crisis simulation, and stresses the importance of communication, understanding the Saudi-Iran conflict and the difficulty in limited interventions. Downloads Hard Road to Damascus: A Crisis Simulation of U.S.-Iranian Confrontation over Syria Authors Kenneth M. Pollack Image Source: © Stringer . / Reuters Full Article
da Life expectancy and the Republican candidates' Social Security proposals By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 29 Jan 2016 12:00:00 -0500 In last Thursday’s GOP debate, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie managed to avoid mentioning their common proposal to “reform entitlements” by raising the Social Security retirement age from 67 to 70. That was probably a good idea. Their proposal only demonstrates their lack of understanding about the demographics of older Americans, especially the dramatic disparities in their life expectancy associated with education and race. Recent research on life expectancy indicates that their proposed change would effectively nullify Social Security for millions of Americans and sharply limit benefits for many millions more.. While many people in their 30s and 40s today can look forward to living into their 80s, the average life expectancy for the majority of Americans who do not hold a college degree hovers closer to 70, or the average life expectancy for all Americans in 1950. The Widening Inequalities in the Life Spans of Americans This research, summarized recently in a study published in Health Affairs, found that life expectancy for various age cohorts of Americans is closely associated with both educational achievement and race. For example, the average life expectancy for college-educated American men who were age 25 in 2008, or age 33 today, is 81.7 years for whites and 78.2 years for blacks. (Table 1, below) By contrast, the projected, average life span of high-school educated males, also age 25 in 2008 or 33 today, is 73.2 years for whites and 69.3 years for blacks. Women on average live longer than men; but similar disparities based on education and race are evident. The average life expectancy of women age 25 in 2008, or 33 years old today, was 79 years for whites and 75.4 years for blacks for those with a high school diploma, and 84.7 years for whites and 81.6 years for blacks with college degrees. Most disturbing, the average life expectancy of Americans age 25 in 2008 without a high school diploma is just 68.6 years for white men, 68.2 years for black men, 74.2 years for white women, and 74.9 years for black women. Surprisingly, the researchers found that Hispanics in this age group have the longest life expectancies, even though they also have the lowest average levels of education. Since these data are anomalous and may reflect sampling problems, we will focus mainly on the life-expectancy gaps between African American and white Americans. Tallying How Many People Are Adversely Affected Census data on the distribution by education of people age 25 to 34 in 2010 (ages 30 to 39 in 2015) provide a good estimate of how many Americans are adversely affected by these growing differences. Overall, 56.3 percent of all Americans currently in their 30s fall are high school graduates or left school without a high school diploma, educational groups with much lower average life expectancies. (Table 2, below) More precisely, 10.1 percent or almost 4.8 million Americans in their 30s today lack a high school diploma, and 46.2 percent or 18.9 million thirty-somethings have high school diplomas and no further degrees. All told, they account for 23,702,000 Americans in their 30s; and among older Americans, the numbers and percentages are even higher. Since race as well as education are major factors associated with differences in life expectancy, we turn next to education by race (Table 3, below). The totals differ modestly from Table 2, because Census data on education by race cover ages 30-39 in 2014, while Table 2 covers age 30-39 in 2015 (ages 25-34 in 2010). Among people in their 30s today, 45.4 percent of whites or 10,613,000 Americans have a high school degree or less – and their average life expectancy is 9.4 years less than whites in their 30s with a college or associate degree. Among people in their 30s todays, 64.4 percent of blacks or 3,436,000 Americans have a high school degree or less – and their life expectancy is 8.6 years less than blacks in their 30s with an B.A. or associate degree, and 11.6 years less than whites with a college or associate degree.. Among people in their 30s today, 75.6 percent of Hispanics or 6,243,000 Americans have a high school degree or less – and their life expectancy is 5.0 years less than Hispanics in their 30s with a college or associate degree. As a policy matter, these data tell us that across all communities—white, black, Hispanic—improvements in secondary education to prepare everyone for higher education, and lower-cost access to higher education, can add years to the lives of millions of Americans. Preserving Meaningful Access to Social Security Benefits The widening inequalities in average life expectancy associated with race and education have more direct policy implications for Social Security, because the number of years that people can claim its benefits depends on their life spans. The growing inequalities in life expectancy translate directly into growing disparities in the years people can claim Social Security benefits, based on their education and race. Assuming that Americans in their 30s today retire at age 67 (the age for full benefits for this age group), they can expect to claim retirement benefits, on average, ranging from 1.2 years to 19.3 years, based on their education and race. (Table 4, below) The most pressing issues of life expectancy and Social Security involve white males, black males, and black females without college degrees: Among Americans age 33 today, white and black men without high school diplomas and black males with high school degrees, on average, can expect to live long enough to collect benefits for less than three years. Similarly, white and black women without high school diplomas and black women with high school degrees, on average, can expect to collect benefits for less than eight years. Together, they account for 25.2 percent of whites and 64.4 percent of blacks in their 30s today. By contrast, male and female white college graduates age 33 today, on average, can expect to collect Social Security for between 14.7 and 17.7 years, respectively; and 33-year old black men and women with college degrees, on average, will claim benefits for 11.2 to 14.6 years, respectively. These findings dictate that proposals to raise the Social Security retirement age should be rejected as a matter of basic fairness. Among this year’s presidential hopefuls, as noted earlier, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie all have called for raising the retirement age to 70 years. Under this policy, black men in their 30s today without a college degree and white men now in their 30s without a high school diploma, on average, would not live long enough to collect any Social Security. The change would reduce the average number of years of Social Security for Americans in their 30s today, From 1.6 years to -1.4 years for white men with no high school diploma, From 1.2 years to -1.8 years for black men with no high school diploma, and From 2.3 years to – 0.7 years for black, male high-school graduates. Furthermore, among Americans in their 30s today, white and black women without a high school diploma, white male high school graduates, and black female high school graduates, would live long enough, on average, to collect Social Security for just 3.2 to 5.4 years. The GOP change reduce the average number of years of Social Security for Americans in their 30s today, From 6.2 years to 3.2 years for white, male high school graduates, From 7.2 years to 4.2 years for white women with no high school diploma, From 7.9 years to 4.9 years for black women with no high school diploma, and From 8.4 years to 5.4 years for black, female high-school graduates. All told, proposals to raise the retirement age to 70 years old would mean, based on the average life expectancy of Americans in their 30s today, that 25.2 percent of whites in their 30s and 64.4 percent of blacks of comparable age, after working for 35 years or more, would receive Social Security benefits for 5.4 years or less. Authors Robert Shapiro Image Source: © Jim Young / Reuters Full Article
da The economic foundation of the poor's poor health decisions By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 31 May 2016 11:00:00 -0400 Rumor has it that an economist started hitting the gym after finishing two milestone research papers, in expectation of a Nobel Prize, which is only rewarded to a living person. Almost no one denies that greater expectations translate into healthier behaviors, while the converse rarely enters the health policy discussion: expectations of a less-than-desirable future may lead to unhealthy behaviors, including smoking, excessive drinking, sedentary lifestyles, and drug abuse. The health issues of the deprived may have a deeper root in economics. Professor Zhu Xi from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and I found evidence of this in our working paper “Affordable Care Encourages Healthy Living: Theory and Evidence from China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme”. Standard economic theory predicts that providing medical insurance encourages unhealthy behavior by mitigating economic consequences. We developed a novel theoretical framework in which the opposite is possible because insurance makes longevity more affordable and thus desirable. We test the theory utilizing a unique experiment of China introducing the New Cooperative Medical Scheme, unique in its long-term credibility necessary for their proposed channel. This scheme reduces cigarette use by around 9% and bolsters subjective perception of the importance of physical exercise and healthy diet. These effects depend significantly on the number of children and the local culture of elderly care. We can rule out alternative explanations of these robust results. The empirical evidence affirms a causal link between concerns about negative bequest and unhealthy behavior, and how to break it. Breaking the causal link would not be an easy task, because bringing a brighter future to the deprived would not be. But this does not revoke the necessity of considering this “expectation” mechanism in designing health policies. For example, it is trendy to study how smokers may substitute other tobacco products for cigarettes and the ensuing health consequences. According to our analytical framework, the substitution could be broader, that is, a person expecting a miserable future would consciously or unconsciously resort to other means of shortening life. Case and Deaton, in their sensational paper, pinned down drug and alcohol poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis as the causes of the rising mortality in midlife among white Americans. The war against tobacco use may be complicated by this potential substitution. In general, recognizing the source of a problem is the first step in solving it. The association between income and life expectancy in the United States is well identified by a Brookings study by Bosworth and Burke and a paper by Chetty et al. The hypothesis that poverty may rationally trigger unhealthy behaviors and thus shorter life expectancy is under-explored. Our research suggests that constructing a social safety net – by subsidizing health or old-age insurance, for example – brightens the future and thus promotes healthy living. Libertarians who believe in “from each as they choose, to each as they are chosen” may frown upon the idea of expanding the government for the sake of saving people from their own poor choices. As usual, an argument could be made that the positive externality outweighs the cost. In this case, a better social safety net can make a person more forward-looking and thus more beneficial to the society. Discovering hidden incentives and mechanisms is one of the primal tasks of economists. Our research suggests, surprisingly, that both the Center of Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of the Treasury are important players in promoting healthy living. Let them be. Authors Yu Ning Image Source: Reuters Full Article
da Africa in the news: Nagy visits Africa, locust outbreak threatens East Africa, and Burundi update By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sat, 01 Feb 2020 12:30:12 +0000 Security and youth top agenda during US Assistant Secretary of State Nagy’s visit to Africa On January 15, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy headed to Africa for a six-nation tour that included stops in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia. Security was on the top of the agenda… Full Article
da The problem with militias in Somalia: Almost everyone wants them despite their dangers By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Introduction Militia groups have historically been a defining feature of Somalia’s conflict landscape, especially since the ongoing civil war began three decades ago. Communities create or join such groups as a primary response to conditions of insecurity, vulnerability and contestation. Somali powerbrokers, subfederal authorities, the national Government and external interveners have all turned to armed… Full Article
da Webinar: Reopening and revitalization in Asia – Recommendations from cities and sectors By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: As COVID-19 continues to spread through communities around the world, Asian countries that had been on the front lines of combatting the virus have also been the first to navigate the reviving of their societies and economies. Cities and economic sectors have confronted similar challenges with varying levels of success. What best practices have been… Full Article
da The day after: Enforcing The Hague verdict in the South China Sea By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 The U.N. arbitral tribunal's decision was an unequivocal rebuke of China’s expansive maritime claims and increasingly assertive posturing in adjacent waters. But, as Richard Heydarian argues, despite the Philippines' landmark victory, what is at stake is no less than the future of the regional security architecture. Full Article
da Health care market consolidations: Impacts on costs, quality and access By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:30:00 -0400 Editor's note: On March 16, Paul B. Ginsburg testified before the California Senate Committee on Health on fostering competition in consolidated markets. Download the full testimony here. Mr. Chairman, Madame Vice Chairman and Members of the Committee, I am honored to be invited to testify before this committee on this very important topic. I am a professor of health policy at the University of Southern California and director of public policy at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. I am also a Senior Fellow and the Leonard D. Schaeffer Chair in Health Policy Studies at The Brookings Institution, where I direct the Center for Health Policy. Much of my time is now devoted to leading the new Schaeffer Initiative for Innovation in Health Policy, which is a partnership between USC and the Brookings Institution. I am best known in California for the numerous community site visits over many years that I led in the state while I was president of the Center for Studying Health System Change; most of those studies were funded by the California HealthCare Foundation. The key points in my testimony today are: Health care markets are becoming more consolidated, causing price increases for purchasers of health services, and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future despite anti-trust enforcement; Government can still play an effective role in addressing higher prices that come from consolidation by pursuing policies that foster increased competition in health care markets. Many of these policies can be effective even in markets with high degrees of concentration, such as in Northern California. Consolidation in health care has been increasing for some time and is now quite extensive in many markets. Some of this comes from mergers and acquisitions, but an important part also comes from larger organizations gaining market share from smaller competitors. The degree of consolidation varies by market. In California, most observers believe that metropolitan areas in the northern part of the state have provider markets that are far more consolidated than those in the southern part of the state. Insurer markets tend to be statewide and are less consolidated than those in many other states. The research literature on hospital mergers is now substantial and shows that mergers lead to higher prices, although without any measured impact on quality.[1] The trend is accelerating for reasons that are apparent. For providers, it is becoming an increasingly challenging environment to be a small hospital or medical practice. There is more pressure on payment rates. New contracting models, such as Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), tend to require more scale. The system is going through a challenging transition to electronic medical records, which is expensive and requires specialized expertise to avoid pitfalls. Lifestyle choices by younger physicians lead them to pursue employment in large organizations rather than solo ownerships or partnerships in small practices. The environment is also challenging for small insurers. Multi-state employers prefer to contract with insurers that can serve all of their employees throughout the country. Scale economies are important in building the analytic capabilities that hold so much promise for effectively managing care. Insurer scale is important to make it worthwhile for providers to contract with them under alternative payment models. The implication of these trends is an expectation of increasing consolidation. There is need for both public and private sector initiatives in addition to anti-trust enforcement to foster greater competition on price and quality. How can competition be fostered? For the insurance market, public exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and private insurance exchanges that serve employers can foster competition among insurers in a number of ways. Exchanges reduce entry barriers by reducing the fixed costs of getting an insurer’s products in front of potential customers. Building a brand is less important when your products will be presented to consumers on an exchange along with information on the benefit design, the actuarial value and the provider network. Exchanges make it easier for consumers to make informed choices across plans. This, in turn, makes the insurance market more competitive. Among public exchanges, Covered California has stood out for making this segment of the insurance market more competitive and helping consumers make choices that are better informed. The rest of my statement is devoted to fostering competition among providers. I believe that fostering competition among providers is a higher priority because the consequences of lack of competition are potentially larger. In addition, a significant regulatory tool, minimum medical loss ratios, part of the ACA, is now in place and can limit the degree to which purchasers pay too much for health insurance in markets with insufficient competition. Fostering competition in provider markets involves two prongs—broadened anti-trust policy and other policies to foster market forces. Anti-trust policy, at least at the federal level, to date has not addressed hospital acquisitions of physician practices. These acquisitions lead to higher prices to physicians because hospitals can negotiate higher prices for their employed physicians than the physicians were getting in small practices. Although not yet extensive, a developing research literature is measuring the price impact.[2] Hospital employment of physicians can also be a barrier to physicians steering patients to high-value providers (another hospital or a freestanding provider). To the degree that it reduces the chance of larger physician groups or independent practice associations forming, hospital employment of physicians reduces potential competitors in contracting under alternative payment models. Another area not addressed by anti-trust policy is cross-market mergers. The concern is that a “must have” hospital in a multi-market system could lead to higher rates for system hospitals elsewhere. Anti-trust enforcement agencies have tended to look at markets separately, so this issue tends not to enter their analyses. Many have seen price and quality transparency as a tool to foster competition among providers. Clearly, transparency has become a societal value and people increasingly expect more information about organizations that are important to them in both the public and private sector. But transparency is often oversold as a strategy to foster competition in health care provider markets. For one thing, many benefit designs have few incentives to favor providers with lower prices. Copays are the same for all providers and with coinsurance, the insurer covers most of the price difference. Even high deductibles are limited in their incentives because almost all in-patient stays exceed large deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums also come into play for many who are hospitalized. Another issue is that the complexity of comparing prices is a “heavy lift” for many consumers. Insurers and employers now have excellent web tools designed to make it easier for patients to compare prices, but indications are that the tools do not get a lot of use. Network strategies have the potential to be more effective. The concept behind them is that the insurer is acting as a purchasing agent for enrollees. To the extent that they have the potential to shift volume from high-priced providers to low-priced providers, money can be saved in three distinct ways. The first is the higher proportion of services coming from lower-priced providers. The second is the additional discounts from providers seeking to become part of the limited or preferred network. Finally, if a large enough proportion of patients are enrolled in plans with these incentives, providers will likely increase the priority given to cost containment. In creating networks, insurers are increasingly using broader and more sophisticated measures of price as well as some measures of quality. Cost per patient per year or cost for all services involved in an episode is likely to have more relevance than unit prices. Using such measures to judge providers for networks has strong analytic parallels to reformed payment approaches, such as ACOs and bundled payments for episodes of care. Network strategies also create more opportunities for integration of care. For example, a limited network or a preferred tier in a broader network could be mostly limited to providers affiliated with a large health care system. Indeed, some health systems are developing their own health plan or partnering with an insurer to offer plans that favor their own providers. In this testimony, I discuss two distinct network strategies. One is the limited network, which includes fewer providers than has been the norm in private insurance. The other is the tiered network, where the network is broad but a subset of providers are included in a preferred tier. Patients pay less in cost sharing when they use the preferred providers. Limited networks are a more powerful tool to obtain lower prices because patient incentives are stronger. If patients opt for a provider not in the limited network, they are subject to higher cost sharing and might have to pay the provider the difference between the charge and what the plan allows. Results of these stronger incentives are seen in a number of studies by McKinsey and Co. that have shown that on the public exchanges, limited network plans have premiums about 15 percent lower than plans with broader networks. Public and private exchanges are an ideal environment for limited network plans. The fixed contributions or subsidies to purchase coverage mean that consumers’ incentives to choose a plan with a lower premium are not diluted—they save the full difference in premium. Exchanges do not have the “one size fits all” requirement that constrains many employers in using this strategy. If an employer is offering only one or two plans, it is important that an overwhelming majority of employees find the network acceptable. But a limited network on an exchange could appeal to fewer than half of those purchasing on the exchange and still be very successful. In addition, tools provided by exchanges to support consumers facilitate comparisons of plans by having each plan’s network accessible on a single web site. In contrast, tiered networks have the potential to appeal to a larger consumer audience. Rather than making annual choices of which providers can be accessed in network, tiered networks allow these decisions on a point-of-service basis. So the consumer always has the option to draw on the full network. Considering the greater popularity of PPOs than HMOs and the fact that tiered formularies for prescription drugs are far more popular than closed formularies, the potential market for tiered networks might be much larger. But this has not happened. In many markets, dominant providers have blocked the offering of tiered networks by refusal to contract with insurers that do not place them in the preferred tier. This phenomenon was seen in Massachusetts, where 2010 legislation prohibiting this practice led to rapid growth in insurance products with tiered networks. Some Californians are familiar with a related approach of reference pricing due to the pioneering work that CalPERS has done in this area for state and local employees. Reference pricing is really an “extra strength” version of the tiered network approach. An insurer sets a reference price and patients using providers that charge more are responsible for the difference (although providers sometimes do not charge patients in such plans any more than the reference price). So the incentive to avoid providers whose price exceeds the reference price is quite strong. While CalPERS has had success with joint replacements and some other procedures, a key question is what proportion of medical spending might be suitable to this approach. For reference pricing to be suitable, the services must be “shoppable,” meaning that they must be discretionary with the patient and can be planned in advance. One analysis estimates that only one third of health spending is “shoppable.”[3] While network approaches have a lot of potential for fostering competition in health care markets, including those that are consolidated, they face a number of challenges that must be addressed. First, transparency about networks must be improved. Consumers need accurate information on which providers are in a network when they choose plans and when they choose providers for care. Accommodation is needed for patients under treatment if their provider should drop out of a network or be dropped from one. Network adequacy regulations are needed to protect consumers from networks that lack access to some specialties or do not have providers close enough to their residence. They are also important to preclude strategies that create networks unlikely to be attractive to patients with expensive, chronic diseases. But if network adequacy regulation is too aggressive, it risks seriously undermining a very promising tool for cost saving. So regulators must very carefully balance consumer protection with cost containment. Some consider the problem of “surprise” balance bills, charges by out-of-network providers that patients do not choose, to be more significant in limited networks. This may be the case, but the problem is substantial in broader networks as well, and its policy response should apply throughout private insurance. Another approach to foster competition in provider markets involves steps to foster independent medical practices. Medicare has taken steps to ease requirements for medical practices to contract as ACOs. It recently took some steps to limit the circumstances in which hospital-employed physicians get higher Medicare rates than those in office-based practice. Private insurers have provided support to some practices to incorporate electronic medical records into their practices. To the degree that independent practice can be made more attractive relative to hospital employment, competition in provider markets is likely to increase. Additional restrictions on anti-competitive behavior by providers can also foster competition. These behaviors include “all or nothing” contracting requirements in which a hospital system requires insurers to contract with all hospitals in the system and “most favored nation” clauses in which insurers get providers to agree not to establish lower rates for other insurers. Although the focus of discussion about policy in this testimony has been about fostering competition, regulatory alternatives that substitute for competition should not be ignored. At this time, two states—Maryland and West Virginia—regulate hospital rates. Some states, mostly in the Northeast, have been looking at this approach. Although I respect what some states have accomplished with this approach in the past, I need to point out that the current environment poses additional challenges for rate setting. The notion that rates would be the same for all payers, a longstanding component in Maryland, is unlikely to be practical today because rate differences between private insurance, Medicare and Medicaid are so large. So differences would likely have to be “grandfathered.” More practical would be to limit regulation to commercial rates, as West Virginia has done since the 1980s. Another challenge is that with broad enthusiasm about the prospects for reformed payment, those contemplating rate setting need to make sure that the mechanism encourages payment reform rather than blocks it. Maryland has been quite careful about this and its recent initiative to broaden its program seems promising. But with the recent emphasis on multi-provider approaches to payment, such as ACOs and bundled payment, the limitation of regulatory authority to hospital rates could be a problem. So what are my bottom lines for legislative priorities? I have two. States should address restrictions on anti-competitive practices such as anti-tiering restrictions, all-or-none contracting restrictions, and most favored nation clauses. My second is to regulate network adequacy wisely. It is a potent tool for fostering competition, even in consolidated markets. Network strategies do have problems that need to be addressed, but it must be done while preserving much of the potency of the approach. A concluding thought involves acknowledging that provider payment reform approaches are likely to contribute to consolidation. Small hospitals and medical practices are not well positioned to participate, although virtual approaches can often be used in place of mergers, for example as California’s independent practice associations have enabled many small practices to participate. But I see payment reform as having major potential over time to reduce costs and increase quality. So my advice is to proceed with payment reform but also take steps to foster competition. Rate setting is best seen as a “stick in the closet” to use if market approaches should fail to control costs. [1] Gaynor, M., and R. Town, The Impact of Hospital Consolidation – Update, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Synthesis Report (June 2012). [2] Baker, L. C., M.K Bundorf and D.P. Kessler, “Vertical Integration: Hospital Ownership Of Physician Practices Is Associated With Higher Prices And Spending,” Health Affairs, Vol. 35, No 5 (May 2014). [3] Chapin White and Megan Egouchi, Reference Pricing: A Small Piece of the Health Care Pricing and Quality Puzzle. National Institute for Health Care Reform, Research Brief No. 18, October 2014. Downloads Download the testimonyDownload the slides Authors Paul Ginsburg Full Article
da The future of the Affordable Care Act: Reassessment and revision By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 11 Jul 2016 17:01:00 -0400 Given the lackluster healthcare exchange enrollment numbers, unaffordable coverage, and increasing overall healthcare costs, President Obama is wrong to think the Affordable Care Act (ACA) needs just a few tweaks – its most fundamental aspects need to be rethought. Obama’s essay marks the first time a modern sitting president has had a piece published in the journal. Much of the progress made under the ACA expanding healthcare coverage to the uninsured has been thanks to increased enrollment in Medicaid -- not the exchanges -- a harbinger of even less progress to come. Secretary of Health and Human Services Sylvia Burwell sharply adjusted down projections of new exchange enrollees in 2016 to 1.3 million. Furthermore, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that over the next decade, as the population increases, coverage will expand only modestly and the proportion of the uninsured will cease to decline. Six key areas in the ACA are flawed -- and need to be fixed if healthcare reform is to meet its promise and not have rampant cost problems: Subsidies still leave plans too expensive. Congress must continue income-related subsidies while making coverage affordable to both households and taxpayers, which is “no easy task” because it could drive up costs of the ACA considerably. The Cadillac tax needs to be fixed. While better than nothing, it doesn’t confront the underlying problem of health insurance being tax deductible, which is regressive and inefficient. One suggestion is a modification of the Cadillac tax that makes any excess plan costs above a cap be considered taxable income to the employee, as opposed to an excise tax. Increase federalism in the healthcare system. States should apply for waivers under Section 1332, which takes effect in 2017 and gives states flexibility to meet the law’s goals while retaining its basic protections. The Administration has made a serious mistake in dragging its feet and acting overly restrictively with states who could launch their own bold and far-reaching experiments, as it has itself in encouraging conservative states to expand Medicaid under the ACA. The exchanges need to be the primary vehicle for health insurance – not Medicaid expansion. Equalizing the subsidy structure for exchange plans and the tax treatment of employer-sponsored benefits, more employees would go on the exchanges which gives them greater choice and portability. Replace the Independent Payment Advisory Board with a premium support system for Medicare. Premium support would enforce a long-term budget for Medicare by allowing greater control of the beneficiaries themselves, as opposed to imposing payment and price controls; it would also accelerate innovation in the design and pricing of Medicare services. The ACA should focus more on the “upstream” determinants of health – beyond just medical services. We need to find ways to blend health, housing, transportation, social services and other items to reduce the need for costly medical services, he writes. If it were a separate economy, the US health system would be equivalent to the first or sixth largest economy in the world. It is both pragmatic and principled to recognize that achieving agreement on how to redesign an economy that large, or to do it successfully in 1 piece of legislation, is beyond the capabilities of the federal government. That is why core parts of the ACA need to be reassessed and revised and why empowering the US system of federalism to adapt and experiment with this law is so important. Read "The Future of the Affordable Care Act: Reassessment and Revision." Authors Stuart M. Butler Publication: JAMA Image Source: © Mariana Bazo / Reuters Full Article
da Affordable Care Act premiums are lower than you think By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 21 Jul 2016 14:00:00 -0400 Since the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) health insurance marketplaces first took effect in 2014, news story after story has focused on premium increases for certain plans, in certain cities, or for certain individuals. Based on preliminary reports, premiums now appear set to rise by a substantial amount in 2017. What these individual data points miss, however, is that average premiums in the individual market actually dropped significantly upon implementation of the ACA, according to our new analysis, even while consumers got better coverage. In other words, people are getting more for less under the ACA. Covered California, that state’s marketplace, just announced premium increases averaging 13.2 percent. But even if premiums increase by the 10 or 15 percent overall that some are predicting for 2017, they will still be far lower than premiums otherwise would have been in the absence of the law. Moreover, this analysis does not include the effects of premium and cost-sharing subsidies that serve to make ACA marketplace plans more affordable for many people. 2014 Premiums In the ACA Marketplaces Were 10-21 Percent Lower Than 2013 Individual Market Premiums While many stories of pronounced increases are simply the natural result of a law that works differently in every region and for people of different health statuses, it appears to be conventional wisdom that the ACA increased premiums in the individual, non-group insurance market, if only because it increased the quality and robustness of coverage. Indeed, many of the ACA’s new rules do have the anticipated effect of increasing premiums, such as: mandated guaranteed issue regardless of health status; restrictions on the ability to charge different premiums based on anything besides age and smoking habits; requirements for plans to offer certain benefits deemed “essential;” limits on out-of-pocket costs an enrollee can pay for covered services in a given year; and the elimination of any lifetime limits on coverage. However, many features of the ACA push in the opposite direction and save consumers money. The individual mandate and federal subsidies greatly expanded the number of people purchasing coverage in the individual market, pushing premiums down both by increasing the sheer size of the market – the bigger the market, the lower the prices – and including many healthier people who previously went uninsured. In addition, the ACA created relatively transparent marketplaces where insurers must compete on premiums for products standardized by actuarial value, allowing competition to drive down prices. Together, by creating a much larger and more competitive market, these changes placed strong downward pressure on insurance premiums, outweighing the factors pushing in the opposite direction. Stronger rate review and minimum requirements for how much an insurance plan must spend on actual health care expenses furthered this downward pressure on prices. According to our analysis, average premiums for the second-lowest cost silver-level (SLS) marketplace plan in 2014, which serves as a benchmark for ACA subsidies, were between 10 and 21 percent lower than average individual market premiums in 2013, before the ACA, even while providing enrollees with significantly richer coverage and a broader set of benefits. Silver-level ACA plans cover roughly 17 percent more of an enrollee’s health expenses than pre-ACA plans did, on average. In essence, then, consumers received more coverage at a lower price. Download "Affordable Care Act Premiums are Lower Than You Think" » Editor's note: This piece originally appeared in Health Affairs. Downloads Download "Affordable Care Act Premiums are Lower Than You Think" Authors Loren AdlerPaul Ginsburg Publication: Health Affairs Full Article
da On April 9, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown discussed “Is the War in Afghanistan Really Over?” via teleconference with the Pacific Council on International Policy. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 09 Apr 2020 20:35:36 +0000 On April 9, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown discussed "Is the War in Afghanistan Really Over?" via teleconference with the Pacific Council on International Policy. Full Article
da Africa in the news: COVID-19 impacts African economies and daily lives; clashes in the Sahel By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sat, 11 Apr 2020 11:30:53 +0000 African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed… Full Article
da The problem with militias in Somalia: Almost everyone wants them despite their dangers By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Introduction Militia groups have historically been a defining feature of Somalia’s conflict landscape, especially since the ongoing civil war began three decades ago. Communities create or join such groups as a primary response to conditions of insecurity, vulnerability and contestation. Somali powerbrokers, subfederal authorities, the national Government and external interveners have all turned to armed… Full Article
da On April 30, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown participated in an event with the Middle East Institute on the “Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Potential Social, Political and Economic Impact.” By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 20:51:33 +0000 On April 30, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown participated in an event with the Middle East Institute on the "Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Potential Social, Political and Economic Impact." Full Article
da Talent-driven economic development: A new vision and agenda for regional and state economies By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 10 Oct 2019 17:17:40 +0000 Talent-driven economic development underscores a fundamental tenet of the modern economy: workforce capabilities far surpass any other driver of economic development. This paper aims to help economic development leaders recognize that the future success of both their organizations and regions is fundamentally intertwined with talent development. From that recognition, its goal is to allow economic… Full Article
da International volunteer service and the 2030 development agenda By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 14 Jun 2016 09:00:00 -0400 Event Information June 14, 20169:00 AM - 12:50 PM EDTFalk AuditoriumBrookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036 Register for the EventA 10th anniversary forum The Building Bridges Coalition was launched at the Brookings Institution in June 2006 to promote the role of volunteer service in achieving development goals and to highlight research and policy issues across the field in the United States and abroad. Among other efforts, the coalition promotes innovation, scaling up, and best practices for international volunteers working in development. On June 14, the Brookings Institution and the Building Bridges Coalition co-hosted a 10th anniversary forum on the role of volunteers in achieving the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 and on the coalition’s impact research. General Stanley McChrystal was the keynote speaker and discussed initiatives to make a year of civilian service as much a part of growing up in America as going to high school. Afterwards, three consecutive panels discussed how to provide a multi-stakeholder platform for the advancement of innovative U.S.-global alliances with nongovernmental organizations, faith-based entities, university consortia, and the private sector in conjunction with the launch of the global track of Service Year Alliance. For more information on the forum and the Building Bridges Coalition, click here. Video Welcoming remarks and featured speakerPanel 1 — Role of volunteer service in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development GoalsPanel 2 — Policy perspective: National and international service in the next administrationPanel 3 — One million Americans in global service: The role of faith-based service Audio International volunteer service and the 2030 development agenda Transcript Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf) Event Materials 20160614_volunteering_development_transcript Full Article
da New polling data show Trump faltering in key swing states—here’s why By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 17:25:27 +0000 While the country’s attention has been riveted on the COVID-19 pandemic, the general election contest is quietly taking shape, and the news for President Trump is mostly bad. After moving modestly upward in March, approval of his handling of the pandemic has fallen back to where it was when the crisis began, as has his… Full Article
da HHS Secretary Sebelius is the Big Loser in Today's Filibuster Game-Changer By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 21 Nov 2013 16:00:00 -0500 HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius may lose the most from the Senate’s rule change on the filibuster—and the Affordable Care Act may be healthier for it. I wrote last month on the FixGov blog that “Republicans are the Reason Secretary Sebelius Won’t Resign” (or be fired). That argument is no longer valid. My claim—the president’s inability to get her successor confirmed because of filibustering Republicans—is nullified by the Senate’s rule change, and the benefits may reach far beyond Obamacare. The Implications of Filibuster Reform for Healthcare Problems exist in HHS. No one denies it. However, for many appointees in the Department, the Senate rules served as a life preserver in a torrent of poor implementation, managerial failures, and bad PR. So long as the president faced the prospect of long-term vacancies among appointees overseeing ACA, the HHS leadership would be spared. Today, that all changed. Moving forward, President Obama needs the support of only 51 Senate Democrats to replace top-level political appointees throughout the executive branch. This offers the president substantial breathing room. Nominees no longer need the support of every Democrat and a scarcely identifiable five Republicans. Instead, nominees can draw the ire of as many as four Democrats and still be confirmed. Maybe Kathleen Sebelius is not to blame for the botched healthcare marketplace roll out. Maybe her Office did not give the thumbs up for the President to repeat “if you like your plan you can keep it.” Maybe she did not contribute to the poor salesmanship of the legislation from the start. However, if she was to blame (and perhaps if she wasn’t), her days in the president’s cabinet may well be numbered. The same may be true for deputies and other administrators in the Department who oversaw the weaker areas of the roll out of this law. By repositioning HHS personnel or breathing new life into a Department facing continued struggles, the president may well ensure the administration of his signature legislation accomplishment improves. The right appointees can coordinate and communicate policy needs and goals up and down the bureaucratic hierarchy. Rather than settling for a program that meets or falls short of expectations, there is an opportunity to build an effective ACA. Good Governance beyond Obamacare The first half of October showed us that political actors in Congress contributed to a broken legislative branch. The second half of October showed us that political actors in the Administration contributed to a broken executive branch. Now is the time for the president to start anew and fix one branch, in the shadow of a Senate trying to fix itself. In my piece from last month, I also argued that the filibuster rules in the Senate allow for the continuation of poor management and governance. If weak appointed personnel are causing policy problems, communication miscues, and other headaches for the president, the ability to replace them with something other than the word “ACTING” was limited by the 60-vote threshold. President Obama, who has faced a string of personnel and management issues over the past year, now has greater freedom not simply to oust problematic appointees, but to install talented, effective leaders. With this ability comes a tremendous opportunity to jumpstart an administration that is sputtering. Filibuster reform will not be the magical elixir that cures all of the ills in the Obama administration. Yet, it’s a good start. The President should channel the flashiness of his campaigns and loftiness of his rhetoric into a focus on real issues of governance. Authors John Hudak Image Source: © Jason Reed / Reuters Full Article
da How the Syrian refugee crisis affected land use and shared transboundary freshwater resources By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Feb 2017 18:03:23 +0000 Since 2013, hundreds of thousands of refugees have migrated southward to Jordan to escape the Syrian civil war. The migration has put major stress on Jordan’s water resources, a heavy burden for a country ranked among the most water-poor in the world, even prior to the influx of refugees. However, the refugee crisis also coincided […] Full Article
da Amped in Ankara: Drug trade and drug policy in Turkey from the 1950s through today By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 05 Apr 2017 19:58:50 +0000 Key Findings Drug trafficking in Turkey is extensive and has persisted for decades. A variety of drugs, including heroin, cocaine, synthetic cannabis (bonsai), methamphetamine, and captagon (a type of amphetamine), are seized in considerable amounts there each year. Turkey is mostly a transshipment and destination country. Domestic drug production is limited to cannabis, which is […] Full Article
da 20200304 NYT Amanda Sloat By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 04 Mar 2020 18:41:22 +0000 Full Article